Is Russell Westbrook declining?

[getrichordie]

He's getting to the rim at what's been about his average rate the last 4 years. And no, he hasn't looked himself. We're 16 games into the season.

Edit: But you're free to think what you want. You're on ignore so I'll be done.

LOL.

Why are you so afraid to even think that Westbrook is in decline? There’s plenty of evidence that he is.

Just like there was plenty of evidence that Grant was going to be better than Patterson this year and last but I won’t drag that out from underneath the rug.

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[bondom34]

Yeah you're on ignore.

Edit: Was replying with actual content but nah, just ignoring. I'd reply to others, but not worth it.

[getrichordie]

Yeah you're on ignore.

Edit: Was replying with actual content but nah, just ignoring. I'd reply to others, but not worth it.

I very much enjoy how you just run away from debates with your tail tucked in between your legs. And you’ve said I’m on ignore like 10x now, but obviously that isn’t work very for you.


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[bondom34]

Yeh, nah

[RalphSampsonJr]

His ability to shoot from the freethrow line? That has magically almost become Steven Adams bad after being a career 80+%er. Never seen anything like it.
That right there shows how much he must depend on routine and getting his head right. Somethings off right now but he should get out of this weird funk. If hes like this at the all star break then he is indeed declining.

How ironic would it be if this team got almost there but couldnt get over the hump because Russ couldnt get it together thos season..

[getrichordie]

His ability to shoot from the freethrow line? That has magically almost become Steven Adams bad after being a career 80+%er. Never seen anything like it.
That right there shows how much he must depend on routine and getting his head right. Somethings off right now but he should get out of this weird funk. If hes like this at the all star break then he is indeed declining.

How ironic would it be if this team got almost there but couldnt get over the hump because Russ couldnt get it together thos season..

That would be such a bad look for Russ and his legacy, honestly. People wouldn’t even want to discuss what the possibility of that looks like.


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[SecondTake]

Not sure if he's 'declining'. His FT% is down because of the rule changes last year, not due to any physical decline. I think he may still be suffering a bit from his injury, which would explain his shooting woes. If it doesn't get better by the spring then I think it may be time to worry about whether this is temporary issue or a long term decline. But I think he's playing more intelligently on the other hand. Making better passes, not hogging the ball, trusting his teammates. Playing with a higher IQ and trying on defense (more than last year).

Combined with these improvements in his game, if he can get his FT% up to 70%+ and learns to move more off the ball (cutting, running screens etc) it would help make up for his athletic decline, if there is one.

[hardenASG13]

Westbrook has had stretches like this before, where he just can't shoot at all for a few weeks and seems unsure what to do. He's always recovered.

He is definately getting older, and there probably is slight decline, but that's not necessarily awful short term. If George can maintain this level of play, Russ can finally have some off nights and the team can still win. Whether he's declining or not, he's better than he's been playing lately, as he has proven his whole career, and already showed earlier this season.

The FT shooting is all mental unfortunately.

[Pillendreher]

23/10/11 on .528 TS, 2.4 steals and a 31% usage. Box score O and D ratings of 108 and 97.

Most of these line up within expected range for career numbers, those are his numbers not counting his 1st 2 games and the 2 most recent.

That's a bit selective though, isn't it? We can't just ignore the bad games.

I think taking out the 1st 2 games is fair as he was returning from injury.

Keeping the last 2 games he's 22/10/10, 4.4 TO, .513 TS, 2.4 steals, 30.8% usage and 105/98 ratings. And it's a 16 game sample, not something I'd call either way. Seems to be mostly in line with what you'd expect other than a bit of the shooting that I think will come around (at least more than it is now).

Another stat I found which supports my observation regarding Westbrook's style of play since he came back: Even though the fast break points per 100 possessions with Westbrook on the floor has basically stayed the same, his own fast break points p100p have dropped significantly: He went from averaging 8.4 before the injury to 4.2 after he came back. He never averaged less than 5 and has been at 8.6 on average ever since 2010/2011. Paul freaking George, who averaged 3.9 fast break points p100p prior to this season has been averaging 7.0 since Westbrook came back, much closer to Westbrook's normal level than Westbrook himself.

Since the # on the team level stayed the same you might say "What's the problem then?", but I think this is something that's concerning when it comes to Westbrook, because to me this doesn't look like a deliberate adjustment. I'm perfectly fine with toning down "Full throttle Russ", but that only works to the benefit of the team when that version is still available when needed. Right now, it looks like there's no way that Russ can actually "unleash himself". He's adjusting to his own inability at the moment (I think I agree with Horne who said that Westbrook hasn't been pressing offensively as one might expect him to do when nothing works for him), but this team will need him to be himself much more going forward, especially with the schedule getting harder.

[sleestak33]

Westbrook is having to adjust to not having the ball in his hands almost every possession and he's struggling with it. Having to play off the ball when Schroder is in the game and also giving the ball up to PG a lot more is clearly going to make this team much better but Russ is used to pounding the air out of the ball for 15-18 seconds on almost every single set (he has had one of the highest usage rates in the history of the NBA) so he's having to learn how to play off the ball. I like how the team looks much better when he's not handling it as much though for sure.

[slick_watts]

Westbrook is having to adjust to not having the ball in his hands almost every possession and he's struggling with it. Having to play off the ball when Schroder is in the game and also giving the ball up to PG a lot more is clearly going to make this team much better but Russ is used to pounding the air out of the ball for 15-18 seconds on almost every single set (he has had one of the highest usage rates in the history of the NBA) so he's having to learn how to play off the ball. I like how the team looks much better when he's not handling it as much though for sure.

i don't think taking the ball out of russ' hands is going to make the team better. they tried this last year. russ is a horrible shooter. opponents do not respect him behind the arc, he provides no spacing, and he rarely moves without the ball. usually he has his hands on his knees bent over 28 feet from the basket while schroder is dribbling.

it's honestly a little sad seeing russ get a kick out pass behind the arc with nobody within 10 feet and instead of shooting he drives the ball into the defenders in the paint because he doesn't trust his shot.

it's not about learning to play off the ball. he just doesn't have the skillset to do it well enough to make up for him not having it in the first place.

[getrichordie]

Westbrook is having to adjust to not having the ball in his hands almost every possession and he's struggling with it. Having to play off the ball when Schroder is in the game and also giving the ball up to PG a lot more is clearly going to make this team much better but Russ is used to pounding the air out of the ball for 15-18 seconds on almost every single set (he has had one of the highest usage rates in the history of the NBA) so he's having to learn how to play off the ball. I like how the team looks much better when he's not handling it as much though for sure.

i don't think taking the ball out of russ' hands is going to make the team better. they tried this last year. russ is a horrible shooter. opponents do not respect him behind the arc, he provides no spacing, and he rarely moves without the ball. usually he has his hands on his knees bent over 28 feet from the basket while schroder is dribbling.

it's honestly a little sad seeing russ get a kick out pass behind the arc with nobody within 10 feet and instead of shooting he drives the ball into the defenders in the paint because he doesn't trust his shot.

it's not about learning to play off the ball. he just doesn't have the skillset to do it well enough to make up for him not having it in the first place.

So basically his game is so heavily reliant on athleticism and having the ball that since he’s in the beginning stages of a decline, he’s not going to be able to do what he used to do (push in transition like he used to; crazy dunks and super athletic finishes; not nearly as much anyway) so he’s changing his game and learning how to play off ball. He will still be able to “turn back the clock” like Vince Carter though, right


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[Pillendreher]

Something that we haven't considered yet is the mental part. Horne talked about this on the latest Thunder Buddies, saying that he was actually encouraged by this game with regard to Westbrook's play. What if this yet another episode of "Russ trying to adjust"?

Some stats to add to this theory:

Shot distribution pre ankle injury (per pbpstats.com):

Rim: 52.6 % Freq.
Short Mid Range: 11.7 % Freq.
Long Mid Range: 21.2 % Freq.
Corner 3: 0.7 % Freq.
Above the break 3: 13.87 % Freq.

Shot distribution post ankle injury (per pbpstats.com):

Rim: 34.1 % Freq.
Short Mid Range: 18.8 % Freq.
Long Mid Range: 11.5 % Freq.
Corner 3: 3.4 % Freq.
Above the break 3: 32.2 % Freq.

And now with a specific look at the Westbrook-Schröder-George lineup since Westbrook came back from the injury (per pbpstats.com):

Rim: 31.4 % Freq.
Short Mid Range: 16.3 % Freq.
Long Mid Range: 7.0 % Freq.
Corner 3: 5.8 % Freq.
Above the break 3: 39.5 % Freq.

This kind of role for Westbrook is not going to help the team, at all. The more I think about it, the more this reminds me of that weird period before his breakout in December when Russ looked like he was uncomfortable and like he didn't really know what to do at times on the floor.

[Old Man Game]

Lot of people act like no he couldn't decline this fast. Why not? He was such a superlative athlete and so heavily reliant on that to make his game work if he losses even a bit of it be it from age, lingering injury or a combination he'll fall off quite a bit.

In a certain way his game was always very vulnerable should he experience a loss of explosiveness because he doesn't do a lot well that isn't reliant on it. This isn't a guy who can shoot. He's not a guy with an old man game (to use a phrase) that can use craftiness to still get to his spots. This guy was a blunt instrument against an opposing defense and that was almost entirely dependent on that explosiveness.

[Pillendreher]

Lot of people act like no he couldn't decline this fast. Why not?

Because you don't go from being at the top of the league in rim scoring to being this passive in the span of two weeks. He's not 38.

[Old Man Game]

Lot of people act like no he couldn't decline this fast. Why not?

Because you don't go from being at the top of the league in rim scoring to being this passive in the span of two weeks. He's not 38.

You get older you don't recover as fast from injuries. So the injury and the age are sort of two related concepts to explain his decline.

[ThunderBolt]

I think most would admit that not every aspect of his struggles are a result of an immediate decline due to age and no other causes. The ankle injury was just a result of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

However the knee injuries of the last two years seem to be a result of wear and tear, leading to a less noticeable decline. Most players decline isn’t obvious right away. They still have enough of those “you see! He’s fine!” kind of moments. I think that’s where we are with Russ but it’s being exacerbated by lingering injuries and his own struggles to adapt to a less ball dominant style of play.

Personally I don’t think he could replicate his mvp season again right now. The frustrating thing is we don’t really need him to do that with this roster. If he could get to the rim, shoot 30% from three on 2-4 attempts a game and his his free throws, we would be fine. Even if he currently is declining in no way whatsoever, when the time comes that it’s undeniable it won’t be pretty to watch. His current frustration levels show that.

[getrichordie]

Lot of people act like no he couldn't decline this fast. Why not? He was such a superlative athlete and so heavily reliant on that to make his game work if he losses even a bit of it be it from age, lingering injury or a combination he'll fall off quite a bit.

In a certain way his game was always very vulnerable should he experience a loss of explosiveness because he doesn't do a lot well that isn't reliant on it. This isn't a guy who can shoot. He's not a guy with an old man game (to use a phrase) that can use craftiness to still get to his spots. This guy was a blunt instrument against an opposing defense and that was almost entirely dependent on that explosiveness.

Thank you! It’s so clearly apparent that he is declining. Anyone can use stats to support their own twisted theory. Let’s just use our collective common sense and call it what is. Westbrook is changing his game DUE TO DECLINE. It happens. It’s not a knock on Westbrook. We just need to get him wing help so he can post up more and drive and kick more effectively and ultimately create more open driving lanes for him.


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[JustOneFix]

He's not declining, he's just not healthy. Players of that athletic abilities do not decline in 15 days, just like that. Specially guys like Russ. For you kids outhere, being 30 doesn't mean you are corpse (i know that from my own playing days). There is barely any difference from the time when you were 23, let say. Guys like Jordan, Lebron, Iverson, Kobe etc were still faster, more explosive then majority of the league when they were 30. Russ is in that category. He's just hurt or not healthy enough to play like he used to do.

[getrichordie]

He's not declining, he's just not healthy. Players of that athletic abilities do not decline in 15 days, just like that. Specially guys like Russ. For you kids outhere, being 30 doesn't mean you are corpse (i know that from my own playing days). There is barely any difference from the time when you were 23, let say. Guys like Jordan, Lebron, Iverson, Kobe etc were still faster, more explosive then majority of the league when they were 30. Russ is in that category. He's just hurt or not healthy enough to play like he used to do.

You can’t compare those guys.

Westbrook
Jordan
Iverson
Kobe
LeBron

Let’s see if someone can tell me the big differences here.


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