2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

I took a look at the expected shooting %'s compared to the actual numbers:



I wonder where more regression will happen: Our shooting or the opponents'?

only one team has shot < 30% from three in the last ten seasons and it was the 7-win charlotte hornets during the lockout year. as poor as our shooters are aside from george / abrines / patterson it does not seem tenable to me that we will be this bad at shooting all season.

opponent shooting seems a bit less unrealistic because i think we're sacrificing other things to keep it low, we're fouling a lot and our team drb is below league average. i'm not sure the trade-off is worth it over the long term. probably if we stay top 10 defense without dre.

[Pillendreher]

I took a look at the expected shooting %'s compared to the actual numbers:



I wonder where more regression will happen: Our shooting or the opponents'?

only one team has shot < 30% from three in the last ten seasons and it was the 7-win charlotte hornets during the lockout year. as poor as our shooters are aside from george / abrines / patterson it does not seem tenable to me that we will be this bad at shooting all season.

Our shooting has been very erratic so far imo. Like I've already said a couple of times, I think they've been doing a good job focusing on their best shooters. But it's like everybody is all over the place. And some of theses misses...Matt Moore put it quite nicely:

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[opponent shooting seems a bit less unrealistic because i think we're sacrificing other things to keep it low, we're fouling a lot and our team drb is below league average. i'm not sure the trade-off is worth it over the long term. probably if we stay top 10 defense without dre.

What exactly are you alluding to when you say we're "sacrificing other things"? Do you think there's a bigger emphasis on contesting shots and it leads to drop-offs in other areas?

I too have noticed that we haven't exactly been good on the defensive glass (doesn't feel like it watching the games though); just like last season, the main culprit is the bench though. With Adams on the floor we'd rank 8th leage wide in DRB%, yet with Noel on the floor that drops to 29th.

[slick_watts]

What exactly are you alluding to when you say we're "sacrificing other things"? Do you think there's a bigger emphasis on contesting shots and it leads to drop-offs in other areas?

I too have noticed that we haven't exactly been good on the defensive glass (doesn't feel like it watching the games though); just like last season, the main culprit is the bench though. With Adams on the floor we'd rank 8th leage wide in DRB%, yet with Noel on the floor that drops to 29th.

imo our high fouls and low drb% is due to an extreme aggression for forcing turnovers and contesting shots. nerlens noel is a perfect example of this. he'll abandon everything to contest a shot or get a steal. his 8%+ BLK this year would be by far a career high for him. we were 20th in contested shots per minute last year, and 10th this year.

you're not going to find a number that just says this but empirically it seems to me we're putting a higher premium on shot contesting (russell westbrook aside, although even he's been a little better).

[CROklahoma]

My most confident take so far in this season.
Dennis Schroder is great for us, and will be a HUGE factor coming later season.
He is 2nd fastest player on our roster, only because we have one of the fastest players in the league right infront of him.
The underrated part of our roster is that with Russ and Dennis on the floor, we are really, really tough cover considering their ability to penetrate to the rim.

He has really carried us with his ability to control the flow during this stretch without Russ, it will be interesting to see how he'll fare up against Dennis Smith today.

[alessandrux]

I'm not a huge fan of reddit, because you can't have a reasonable conversation and the system relies on overreaction but it's nice to get some hot takes in, but here is a somewhat useful information: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/9vuf1d/jeremy_lin_is_playing_superbly/
Lin, who has the same kind of injury like Roberson, seems to perform well, which gives some confidence towards Robersons return.

A healthy Roberson would be awesome, I hope they don't rush it. The same goes for Westbrook. We won't go anywhere if Westbrook returns to early and is not able to perform at 100% in the playoffs.

[RalphSampsonJr]

I too have noticed that we haven't exactly been good on the defensive glass (doesn't feel like it watching the games though); just like last season, the main culprit is the bench though. With Adams on the floor we'd rank 8th leage wide in DRB%, yet with Noel on the floor that drops to 29th.

Yea the rebounding if Adams isnt there (Either on the bench or out on the 3pt line) has been awful. Last game i saw three okc players and Capela still got a relatively easy oboard. It was one of the most annoying things to watch last season.

[Pillendreher]

pbpstats.com offers scoring data filtered by possession type:



League wide, filtered by possesions the Thunder currently rank as follows in ORtG:

Made FG: 29th (98.0; league average is 108.5)
Missed FG: 13th (111.8; league average is 109.9)
Steal: 21st (119.8; league average is 127.8)

They really need Russ (the team's expected eFG% jumps from 52.0 with him off the floor to 56.4 with him on the floor) and they really need to find a way to score in the half court. Over the last two seasons, they actually averaged a 107.6 ORtG after made field goals (106.6 right after Durant left, 108.5 last season), so it's not like they've been this bad historically.

[ThunderBolt]

Presti and Morey are complete opposites. In this instance, it’s nice to see morey realize what the problems are and make an effort to improve them. Meanwhile we can hit the broad side of the barn but Presti prides himself on not being “reactionary”.

Two years ago Presti went out and got Jerami Grant early in the season. Sam doesn’t have to wait until the trade deadline to fix this.

[Pillendreher]

Two years ago Presti went out and got Jerami Grant early in the season. Sam doesn’t have to wait until the trade deadline to fix this.

I honestly think there is very little they will try to "fix" the shooting woes. Unless an unbelievable opportunity comes along, the depth chart is basically set in stone. They won't trade Ferguson or Diallo. I don't think they trade Schröder this season: if he plays well enough to regain trade value, you probably want to keep him anyway. Trading Abrines makes little sense because he is one of the 3 guys that can shoot; same goes for Patterson. But alas, I fear we might be looking at a Patterson trade where they try to consolidate Patterson, ie for a couple of underwhelming, younger players.

The one they should trade is Grant because

a) He doesn't fith with the current roster

and

b) He is still young on a reasonable enough contract

But I don't think that will ever happen because Presti is still hoping he'll turn into the Ibaka/Roberson hybrid he envisioned when he wasted that pick on him.

[CROklahoma]

Why wouldnt Grant fit with the current roster, and Patterson would ?
You make statements without any arguments.
Grant is younger, more versatile, and more modern forward, with a lot more upside than Patterson.
What are the numbers that you favout Ppat instead of Grant ?
If hes young and on a resonable contract, is that a negative for us ?
Should we be looking for older and more tax punishing player ?

[Pillendreher]

Why wouldnt Grant fit with the current roster, and Patterson would ?
You make statements without any arguments.

I've laid this out multiple times. I'm not going to keep repeating myself.

Grant is younger

You don't win basketball games because of youth.

more versatile

In what way? You know what people called guys like Grant before the league decided to play smaller than it used to: Tweeners. He's not a wing, he's not a bigman. That's not versatile, that's problematic. You can't put him on guards because he's not fast enough with his feet. Same basically goes for wings. And when you put him on bigmen, he's not good enough of a rebounder or one-on-one defender to play against them proberly. Finally, on offense he has a specific role he needs to play to be effective. That's the opposite of being versatile.

and more modern forward

If anything, Grant is onee the least modern forwards I can think of. Today's forwards can shoot. Basically all of them. Grant is more like Kenneth Faried than a modern forward.

with a lot more upside than Patterson.

We don't have time for upside. We can't win games this season because Grant might learn how to shoot in four years.

What are the numbers that you favout Ppat instead of Grant ?

Patterson career 3P%: 37.1 %
Grant career 3P%: 30.1 %

We're so far below league average shooting wise so far, it's unreal. And having another non-shooter out there is not helping with that, at all.

If hes young and on a resonable contract, is that a negative for us ?
Should we be looking for older and more tax punishing player ?

Grant is not on a minimum deal. He's making 9 million a year. Including tax, Grant is costing this team a combined 45 million this season.

[slick_watts]

grant can't shoot. QED.

[Old Man Game]

with a lot more upside than Patterson.

We don't have time for upside. We can't win games this season because Grant might learn how to shoot in four years.

Also Grant just turned 24. He's not in his prime but its not like he just turned 20 or something. In his case what you see is probably what you're likely to get going forward. At most he might become a bit better shooter (his solid free throw stroke does give me hope on that front).

[CROklahoma]

Patterson cant put the ball on the floor, nor can he defend better than JG.
He has lower %eFG than Grant, so argument of shooting 7% better from 3P is out of equasion aswell ...

[slick_watts]

Patterson cant put the ball on the floor, nor can he defend better than JG.
He has lower %eFG than Grant, so argument of shooting 7% better from 3P is out of equasion aswell ...

we're the worst 3pt shooting team in the nba. we're not winning anything like that. patterson > grant for the thunder.

[slick_watts]

pill is being extra salty though because grant is definitely more versatile than patterson and the comparison is close. patterson just has a skill that is lacking elsewhere on the team so he's less expendable imo.

[CROklahoma]

Advanced stats:
JG better in net rating, ass ratio, lower usage, better TS, better eFG, better stl, blk %, higher WS, better VORP, and BPM, and better FTR.

Younger

Should we close this discussion, or ?

JGrant is on a rise, he really is improving, he was a wood when he arrived in OKC.
He actually proved himself in playoffs last year that he is gonna be a lot more than we expected

[getrichordie]

Patterson cant put the ball on the floor, nor can he defend better than JG.
He has lower %eFG than Grant, so argument of shooting 7% better from 3P is out of equasion aswell ...

Amen. I’m glad that someone gets it. All Patterson can do is let people jump shoot on him all day because he’s afraid they will drive by him. He can hit 37% of his threes in regular season, but his numbers will dip in playoffs as they have in recent years past.

Patterson has no drive game. Grant does.

Grant is so much more impactful on defense than Patterson, it’s not even close. Grant also makes Westbrook’s job a lot easier. Honestly, Grant starting this year is replacing a chunk of Roberson’s defensive impact that is currently missing.

I think about it like this. Do I want a guy who can shoot 37% on 3s and plays average defense on the second unit and will most likely be a non-factor in playoffs? Or do I want a guy who can shoot 35% on threes, makes your defense better, rebounds, blocks shots, causes turnovers, etc. Literally there are so many guys who can do what Patterson has shown on defense this year.

[getrichordie]

pill is being extra salty though because grant is definitely more versatile than patterson and the comparison is close. patterson just has a skill that is lacking elsewhere on the team so he's less expendable imo.

I agree. It would make trading Patterson tough. But how many guys in the league can shoot better than 30% on corner 3s? Because that’s what Patterson’s career playoff % is. 30%. Overall? 34%. Do the math. You can find a guy in the G league who can shoot corner 3s better.


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[slick_watts]

pill is being extra salty though because grant is definitely more versatile than patterson and the comparison is close. patterson just has a skill that is lacking elsewhere on the team so he's less expendable imo.

I agree. It would make trading Patterson tough. But how many guys in the league can shoot better than 30% on corner 3s? Because that’s what Patterson’s career playoff % is. 30%. Overall? 34%. Do the math. You can find a guy in the G league who can shoot corner 3s better.


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bruh, don't lump me in agreement with you.