2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Pillendreher]

You can find a guy in the G league who can shoot corner 3s better.

Our roster is full of players that are way worse shooters than Patterson. If you try to convince people that trading Patterson is about his shooting, you're approaching fantasy land at a very fast speed.

[bondom34]

You can find a guy in the G league who can shoot corner 3s better.

Our roster is full of players that are way worse shooters than Patterson. If you try to convince people that trading Patterson is about his shooting, you're approaching fantasy land at a very fast speed.

Patterson: 37.5% from the corner

Grant: 23.5% from the corner

Bender: Career 36.9% from the corner, hasn't played this season enough to shoot one.

[spearsy23]

Grant certainly fits what we want to do more than Patterson. That's probably a problem in and of itself.

[slick_watts]

Grant certainly fits what we want to do more than Patterson. That's probably a problem in and of itself.

pace and explosiveness.

[Old Man Game]

Grant certainly fits what we want to do more than Patterson. That's probably a problem in and of itself.

This is an interesting point. While the rest of the league is going shooting Presti is going with long athletes with minimal ball skills. It is like he's trying to identify "market inefficiencies" (to use some popular buzz words from the zeitgeist) where he can get dudes on the cheap that others are overlooking. In truth, no one missed these guys. They just don't fit with the league at this point. Everyone else can see that whereas Presti is rolling the dice hoping for the best.

[Kizz Fastfists]

The problem with calling them a market inefficiency is that they have to be able to bring something of value that makes them more valuable then what you are giving up for them. Grant is not more valuable than his contract. He is not an example of market inefficiency. He is actually the opposite.

I can not think of anything Presti has done that would qualify as finding market inefficiencies. Presti has never shown to be ahead of any curve in the NBA to create a market inefficiency. The league is currently favoring long, athletic shooters. Presti is chasing long, athletic, non-shooters. There is no upside to a non-shooter when compared to a shooter when the other skills are the same. Donovan has said repeatedly that he wants OKC shooting as many 3s as possible. That makes Patterson significantly more valuable to the Thunder than Grant. It also means that Presti and Donovan are at complete odds with roster philosophy that will never allow the two to coexist together and have a contender. Until Presti brings in adequate shooting he is actively sabotaging his coach.

You can even argue that drafting Ferguson over OG was Presti trying to chase the trend. OG was the expected pick on this board because he was exactly the type of athletic defender who hadn't shown shooing ability that Presti normally goes after. Ferguson was seen going into the draft as a higher upside player and a shooter by scouts. Signing Patterson, a 3&D big man that is somehow fell apart under the great coaching and schemes of OKC, was also chasing the trend. I can very easily see Presti thinking that since his coach sucks and made Patterson ineffective that he needs to abandon the idea of pursuing shooting and stick to athletic guys and ignore basketball skills. That would be confirmation bias on Presti's fault instead of seeing that the problem is the coach and not the players, but I think we could easily see a roster next year where PG is the only player capable of shooting 38%+ from 3.

[Pillendreher]

I don't even think it's about Presti thinking that he's ahead of the curve or whatever. I think it's much more simple than that: He considers these guys long term value plays. With basketball players, there are certain things you can teach and certain things you can't. It's easier to teach a non-shooter how to shoot than to get Kyle Singler to jump as high as Diallo. So when Presti looks at these guys, he looks at the foundation with their body and athleticism and considers the skills they're lacking the long term investment.
I think he's basically saying that the perfect player is the complete package of skill and talent. And guys that don't have the talent simply never become the complete package because you can't teach height or whatever.

The main issue with that approach is that as time goes on, the projects slowly take over the roster. And we're not developing them fast enough. For the whole approach to work you need basically a complete roster that can carry these kind of projects. And if they work out, you get much more value out of a pick than with somebody who's ceiling is limited because of physical limitation. That's best case scenario though.

[Kizz Fastfists]

The bigger problem with long-term prospects is that OKC is on a short-term time line. Russ is 30 and Presti is looking long-term like he is still 25. If OKC was rebuilding then these long-term projects would be great. Assuming that Presti is looking at them as long-term investments who will peak in years then he is basically trying to maintain a team that will just make the playoffs and go out in the first round.

He has Russ to carry him for another year or two, but when Russ drops off these guys don't have the ceiling of top talent so he's wanting to be like the Hornets where you make the playoffs with absolutely no chance of getting out of the first round. At least with Russ there is still a chance for another year or two that they could get out of the first round. It is unlikely, but there is still that chance. When Russ drops off there is nothing there except to tank which makes the long-term investments even worse if they become just good enough to keep you from getting top 5 picks unless Presti is considering them as trade pieces for future picks in a few years when Russ can't carry the team any longer.

[spearsy23]

The bigger problem with long-term prospects is that OKC is on a short-term time line. Russ is 30 and Presti is looking long-term like he is still 25. If OKC was rebuilding then these long-term projects would be great. Assuming that Presti is looking at them as long-term investments who will peak in years then he is basically trying to maintain a team that will just make the playoffs and go out in the first round.

He has Russ to carry him for another year or two, but when Russ drops off these guys don't have the ceiling of top talent so he's wanting to be like the Hornets where you make the playoffs with absolutely no chance of getting out of the first round. At least with Russ there is still a chance for another year or two that they could get out of the first round. It is unlikely, but there is still that chance. When Russ drops off there is nothing there except to tank which makes the long-term investments even worse if they become just good enough to keep you from getting top 5 picks unless Presti is considering them as trade pieces for future picks in a few years when Russ can't carry the team any longer.

There's always the possibility of a Brooklyn/Boston type trade. The trick is to get out at the right time. It's easier to trade a guy when he's 28, but you may maximize your value by trading him at 32.

[Bergmaniac]

I don't even think it's about Presti thinking that he's ahead of the curve or whatever. I think it's much more simple than that: He considers these guys long term value plays. With basketball players, there are certain things you can teach and certain things you can't. It's easier to teach a non-shooter how to shoot than to get Kyle Singler to jump as high as Diallo.

How many of these non-shooters drafted by Presti have the Thunder managed to turn into average or better shooters over time? I can't think of anyone. How many players have even improved as a shooters while on the Thunder? Very, very few. Only one I can think of is Ibaka developing a 3 point shot, but he had a decent midrange shot from the start.

[Osirus89]

This discussion is part of what makes Diallo so fascinating. If he can be the chosen one that Presti has been searching far and wide for over the last few years, he will probably validate his philosophy (at least in his mind). Mostly because Diallo has one of the highest ceilings of any player OKC has drafted/acquired in a long time.

Unlike some of Presti's other projects, you can actually tangibly see the potential when he plays. Presti is probably somewhere praying that Hamidou is able to become a respectable shooter as he develops. He would be his messiah if that ever occurs.

[spearsy23]

I don't even think it's about Presti thinking that he's ahead of the curve or whatever. I think it's much more simple than that: He considers these guys long term value plays. With basketball players, there are certain things you can teach and certain things you can't. It's easier to teach a non-shooter how to shoot than to get Kyle Singler to jump as high as Diallo.

How many of these non-shooters drafted by Presti have the Thunder managed to turn into average or better shooters over time? I can't think of anyone. How many players have even improved as a shooters while on the Thunder? Very, very few. Only one I can think of is Ibaka developing a 3 point shot, but he had a decent midrange shot from the start.

Westbrook

[Kizz Fastfists]

How many of these non-shooters drafted by Presti have the Thunder managed to turn into average or better shooters over time? I can't think of anyone.

Westbrook

That is an joke, right? Russ shot 27% from 3 as a rookie and 30% last year, well within variance range, and is 31% for his career. Mid-range, 10-16 ft, he shot 36% as a rookie and is 39% for his career. On 16+ ft two point shots he shot 38% as a rookie and is 39% for his career. Russ shot 81.5% from the FT line as a rookie and his career is 81.2%.

Russ is the same mediocre shooter he was when he entered the league. Like all players he has had some year-to-year variance, but he hasn't become and better shooter anywhere on the court from where he was as a rookie that would make you think OKC developed him as a shooter.

[getrichordie]

The problem with calling them a market inefficiency is that they have to be able to bring something of value that makes them more valuable then what you are giving up for them. Grant is not more valuable than his contract. He is not an example of market inefficiency. He is actually the opposite.

I can not think of anything Presti has done that would qualify as finding market inefficiencies. Presti has never shown to be ahead of any curve in the NBA to create a market inefficiency. The league is currently favoring long, athletic shooters. Presti is chasing long, athletic, non-shooters. There is no upside to a non-shooter when compared to a shooter when the other skills are the same. Donovan has said repeatedly that he wants OKC shooting as many 3s as possible. That makes Patterson significantly more valuable to the Thunder than Grant. It also means that Presti and Donovan are at complete odds with roster philosophy that will never allow the two to coexist together and have a contender. Until Presti brings in adequate shooting he is actively sabotaging his coach.

You can even argue that drafting Ferguson over OG was Presti trying to chase the trend. OG was the expected pick on this board because he was exactly the type of athletic defender who hadn't shown shooing ability that Presti normally goes after. Ferguson was seen going into the draft as a higher upside player and a shooter by scouts. Signing Patterson, a 3&D big man that is somehow fell apart under the great coaching and schemes of OKC, was also chasing the trend. I can very easily see Presti thinking that since his coach sucks and made Patterson ineffective that he needs to abandon the idea of pursuing shooting and stick to athletic guys and ignore basketball skills. That would be confirmation bias on Presti's fault instead of seeing that the problem is the coach and not the players, but I think we could easily see a roster next year where PG is the only player capable of shooting 38%+ from 3.

So is Presti sabotaging Donovan or not? You make it sound like Presti is doing a disservice to Donovan and like Donovan is supposed to be a shooting coach too.


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[Kizz Fastfists]

So is Presti sabotaging Donovan or not? You make it sound like Presti is doing a disservice to Donovan and like Donovan is supposed to be a shooting coach too.

Can shooting be taught? If it can shouldn't Donovan be teaching it to his players that can't shoot? If it can't be taught then shouldn't Presti be fired for his terrible roster decisions? Fire Presti and bring in Sam Hinkie and the problems will get solved.

[spearsy23]

So is Presti sabotaging Donovan or not? You make it sound like Presti is doing a disservice to Donovan and like Donovan is supposed to be a shooting coach too.

Can shooting be taught? If it can shouldn't Donovan be teaching it to his players that can't shoot? If it can't be taught then shouldn't Presti be fired for his terrible roster decisions? Fire Presti and bring in Sam Hinkie and the problems will get solved.

Hinkie built a team with pretty much the same issues

[bondom34]

And Hinkie isn't bound to tanking. He's a good GM.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Hinkie built a team with pretty much the same issues

Hinkie was fired before he could finish and the idiot Colangelo traded a pick that should have been used on Tatum or Fox, both of them can shoot, for Fultz. He even threw in the Sacramento pick. Even if Sacamento makes the playoffs this year it would have given them another shot at drafting a shooter. They also just traded two shooters in Covington and Saric that Hinkie brought in.

The players Hinkie drafted:

2013-Noel and MCW. MCW can't shoot, but neither can anyone else taken in the next 10 picks. Adams and Giannis are the only players that would have been better around that pick. Noel can't shoot, but at the time was viewed as the best player on the board, although in hindsight CJ McCollumn would have been the ideal pick.
2014- Embiid and Saric. Embiid has a higher career 3pt% than Russ and takes 3.4 a game. Saric is 35% for his career and shot 39% last year. I consider Saric a shooter. Also took Jerami Grant in the 2nd round. Grant can't shoot, but he is a nice player for a 2nd round pick.
2015- Okafor. He can't shoot or play defense. It is a shame he didn't go with Porzingis. This is really the only pick that I didn't like when he made it. If you will recall I wanted Porzingis for OKC with the pick that ended up being McGary, but Porzingis pulled out of the draft at the last minute.

That is the extent of Hinkie's first round picks for Philly. Robert Covington is an interesting player of note since Hinkie signed him as a FA after Houston waived him. As a rookie Covington shot 36% from 3 in the NBA and 37% in the g-league. He was a shooter that Hinkie found cheap. Imagine Houston with Covington. They wouldn't have needed to waste time with Melo.

Hinkie did not draft Simmons as he was replaced before the 2016 draft. I'm assuming he would have taken Simmons. Hinkie drafted very well with the exception of Okafor. Taking a 3rd straight center was a mistake and everyone knew it. The bigger thing Hinkie did was give Philly so much ammo that they could give away a pick to waste another on Fultz and still have the ability to trade for Butler and have max cap space this off-season and still be owed future first round picks.

Just to make my point clear I do not believe Hinkie is without flaws and the biggest was drafting 3 straight centers. Noel and Embiid was enough and they should have been focusing on getting them to coexist and going for a shooter, like Porzingis or Booker over Okafor. I also believe Presti was EXCELLENT at building the Thunder. Presti drafted amazingly with kd, Russ, Harden and Ibaka. Jeff Green was kind of his Okafor and I'll say Joakim Noah would have been the perfect fit. Can you imagine a starting 5 of Russ, Thabo, kd, Ibaka and Noah with Harden coming off the bench. I also think they could have made the salaries work, without Perkins there, to keep Harden. That is nitpicking just like saying Presti should have taken Giannis and Gobert over Adams and Roberson would be. Presti built a great team that got ruined when kd left. We don't know how long Embiid and Simmons will stay in Philly. If Embiid leaves after his first extension, like kd did, that doesn't make Hinkie a failure.

kd leaving didn't make Presti a failure. I have disagreed with most of Presti's moves since kd left. It isn't that I don't understand them and it isn't that given the goal of continuing to make the playoffs they are bad moves, but I disagree with the whole premise of continuing to make the playoffs. I don't believe there is really much of a difference between Presti and Hinkie as far as GM abilities go. I think they are both very capable of building a contender. At this point I believe that if Presti were fired it would be to go in a different direction and Hinkie would be my pick for what I think would be a rebuilding direction. Ideally, Presti would have just gone that direction when Draymond's bae ran to GS.

The reality is that ownership clearly likes this direction so any talk of getting rid of Presti is pure fan speculation that isn't going to happen. OKC ownership is clearly happy with the money coming in and wants to continue these financials. Make the playoffs, have a top 5 ticket price and keep the fans coming. Delay the rebuild as much as possible. I would really like in two season for Presti to make me eat my words. I see that as a very slim possibility. Everyone knows I'm high as a kite on Ferguson. If in two years Ferguson is the best player on the team, keep in mind Russ will probably still be a top 25 player at that point even though there will be some age related decline, and PG should still be around top 20 given he is younger than Russ and if Diallo develops some shooting to go with the rest of his skill set to hit fringe all-star, think Iguodala, then those 4 with Adams, Grant, Abrines and Schroder could be a championship core. This is where everyone gets to tell me Ferguson won't become a top 10 player and crush my dreams of an OKC championship before 2028.

[Pillendreher]

Ferguson-George-Grant-Adams per stats.nba.com:

119.7 ORtG | 93.9 DRtG | +25.8 NetRtG in 172 minutes

Among 4-Man-Lineups with at least 150 mp, that's the 2nd best offense and the 3rd best defense.

per ctg:

122.8 ORtG | 95.3 DRtG | +27.5 NetRtG in 711 possessions

I still don't know why this is working, especially offensively. I think a lot of it is variance (like Grant shooting 53.3 % from 3 or Ferguson shooting 38.5 % from 3 in that lineup), but at some point one has to consider that there is actually something there on both ends.

[slick_watts]

Ferguson-George-Grant-Adams per stats.nba.com:

119.7 ORtG | 93.9 DRtG | +25.8 NetRtG in 172 minutes

Among 4-Man-Lineups with at least 150 mp, that's the 2nd best offense and the 3rd best defense.

per ctg:

122.8 ORtG | 95.3 DRtG | +27.5 NetRtG in 711 possessions

I still don't know why this is working, especially offensively. I think a lot of it is variance (like Grant shooting 53.3 % from 3 or Ferguson shooting 38.5 % from 3 in that lineup), but at some point one has to consider that there is actually something there on both ends.

wait until our schedule gets harder.