2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[bondom34]

Schroder being a bad defender doesn't get credited to being on bad teams. He was a bad defender, and still may be one. Half these games are the Knicks and Suns.

[getrichordie]

I don’t think the Schroder-Westbrook lineup is going to be as bad as people think. When you delve deeper into the numbers, when Abrines plays the 3 and George slides to the 4, they’ve seen success.

The Schroder-Westbrook-George-Grant-Adams lineup doesn’t look like it’s going to work, though.

If Schroder and Westbrook and George are going to play on floor together, you have to have Abrines in there to counter the lack of perimeter shooting.


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[slick_watts]

IWhen you delve deeper into the numbers, when Abrines plays the 3 and George slides to the 4, they’ve seen success.

this group has played 15 minutes and only 2 games.

[Pillendreher]

there looks to be some correlation between % of 3PA contested and defensive efficiency. i don't expect the correlation to be as strong for opponent efg%. i'm thinking the high % of 3PA contested is indicative of some quality that good defenses tend to have. perhaps close out ability or 'switchability'?

i'm not sure. at any rate this is interesting research!

This is the "contested %" mixed with the expected 3P% vs real 3P% numbers provided by stats.nba.com.





This seems to be more random. So far only us, the Warriors and the Nets rate very well in both categories.

[Pillendreher]

I got two wacky Jerami Grant stats for you: With Ferguson-George-Adams next to him on the floor, he's 11/19 from 4. Besides that, he's 4/24 from 3.

And through the first 12 games, he has scored 6 points total on 28 drives.

Weird.

[getrichordie]

I got two wacky Jerami Grant stats for you: With Ferguson-George-Adams next to him on the floor, he's 11/19 from 4. Besides that, he's 4/24 from 3.

And through the first 12 games, he has scored 6 points total on 28 drives.

Weird.

Can you link me to where you found that stat?


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[Pillendreher]

I got two wacky Jerami Grant stats for you: With Ferguson-George-Adams next to him on the floor, he's 11/19 from 4. Besides that, he's 4/24 from 3.

And through the first 12 games, he has scored 6 points total on 28 drives.

Weird.

Can you link me to where you found that stat?


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3P performance:

https://stats.nba.com/impact/#!?LineupIDs=203924~202331~203500~1628390&VsLineupIDs=203924~1628390&TeamID=1610612760&VsTeamID=1610612760&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&Season=2018-19

Drives:

https://stats.nba.com/players/drives/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=Totals&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*grant

[Pillendreher]

After removing the Felton minutes, cleaningtheglass.com (which claims to remove garbage time) has us as follows (on a team level):

113.0 ORtG (79th percentile)
103.3 DRtG (90th percentile
+9.6 NetRtG (90th percentile)

We really need Russ to come back so Schröder can get back to leading the bench. I've already had enough of Felton for this season

[Bergmaniac]

I still am not missing Roberson. It's nice having 5 capable offensive players at a time at all times.

But you don't see that on the Thunder since Ferguson is a horrendous offensive player, and the two random games in which his 3 ball was falling don't change that, his shot still looks broken, and he still does nothing else in the halfcourt offense except shoot 3s very poorly.

[Pillendreher]

I don't think I'd disagree with this at all, nor did I expect different. Schroder was one of the worst defenders at PG last year, and moving him down a position won't help. Even working from them both being fairly neutral as PG defenders, moving them down a spot hurts.

the specific responsibilities of wing defenders in our system make this even less tenable to me.

Agreed, and especially a general reliance on length and deflections.

The thing with the Westbrook-Schröder lineups is also that the sample size is still so very small. And due to that, small changes can change things very quickly, in both directions:

vs SAC: 20 min - 96.0 ORtG | 110.0 DRtG | -14.0 NetRtG
vs BOS: 8 min - 77.3 ORtG | 127.3 DRtG | -50.0 NetRtG
vs PHO: 11 min - 112.0 ORtG | 73.9 DRtG | +38.1 NetRtG
vs LAC: 10 min - 91.7 ORtG | 156.5 DRtG | -64.9 NetRtG
vs CHA: 19 min - 113.6 ORtG | 88.6 DRtG | +25.0 NetRtG
vs WAS: 8 min - 131.3 ORtG | 127.8 DRtG | +3.5 NetRtG
vs NOP: 4 min - 83.3 ORtG | 100.0 DRtG | -16.7 NetRtG

We'll see if it works moving forward. Schröder is up to shooting 38.9 % on catch and shoot 3s all of sudden. I don't know how the hell that happened (sample size, I know), but still...depending on the lineup around them, the lineup should be good enough to get a couple of minutes per game. In no way should the Westbrook-Schröder pairing be out there for 20 minutes a night though.

[getrichordie]

the specific responsibilities of wing defenders in our system make this even less tenable to me.

Agreed, and especially a general reliance on length and deflections.

The thing with the Westbrook-Schröder lineups is also that the sample size is still so very small. And due to that, small changes can change things very quickly, in both directions:

vs SAC: 20 min - 96.0 ORtG | 110.0 DRtG | -14.0 NetRtG
vs BOS: 8 min - 77.3 ORtG | 127.3 DRtG | -50.0 NetRtG
vs PHO: 11 min - 112.0 ORtG | 73.9 DRtG | +38.1 NetRtG
vs LAC: 10 min - 91.7 ORtG | 156.5 DRtG | -64.9 NetRtG
vs CHA: 19 min - 113.6 ORtG | 88.6 DRtG | +25.0 NetRtG
vs WAS: 8 min - 131.3 ORtG | 127.8 DRtG | +3.5 NetRtG
vs NOP: 4 min - 83.3 ORtG | 100.0 DRtG | -16.7 NetRtG

We'll see if it works moving forward. Schröder is up to shooting 38.9 % on catch and shoot 3s all of sudden. I don't know how the hell that happened (sample size, I know), but still...depending on the lineup around them, the lineup should be good enough to get a couple of minutes per game. In no way should the Westbrook-Schröder pairing be out there for 20 minutes a night though.

I think they should definitely be out there to close games. They need to get a feel for each other sooner rather than later. You need to be able to have your best 5 players on the court at any given time. I think as long as Schroder can hit 3s on the catch at 36% and Grant can hit his at 36%, we will be fine versus stiffer comp.


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[ThunderBolt]

the specific responsibilities of wing defenders in our system make this even less tenable to me.

Agreed, and especially a general reliance on length and deflections.

The thing with the Westbrook-Schröder lineups is also that the sample size is still so very small. And due to that, small changes can change things very quickly, in both directions:

vs SAC: 20 min - 96.0 ORtG | 110.0 DRtG | -14.0 NetRtG
vs BOS: 8 min - 77.3 ORtG | 127.3 DRtG | -50.0 NetRtG
vs PHO: 11 min - 112.0 ORtG | 73.9 DRtG | +38.1 NetRtG
vs LAC: 10 min - 91.7 ORtG | 156.5 DRtG | -64.9 NetRtG
vs CHA: 19 min - 113.6 ORtG | 88.6 DRtG | +25.0 NetRtG
vs WAS: 8 min - 131.3 ORtG | 127.8 DRtG | +3.5 NetRtG
vs NOP: 4 min - 83.3 ORtG | 100.0 DRtG | -16.7 NetRtG

We'll see if it works moving forward. Schröder is up to shooting 38.9 % on catch and shoot 3s all of sudden. I don't know how the hell that happened (sample size, I know), but still...depending on the lineup around them, the lineup should be good enough to get a couple of minutes per game. In no way should the Westbrook-Schröder pairing be out there for 20 minutes a night though.

Who would have thought that Schröder and grant would both be shooting better than Abrines from three? A low key story line is Abrines left the game sick. He’s so fragile.

[Pillendreher]

I think they should definitely be out there to close games.

I wholeheartedly disagree with that. See below.

They need to get a feel for each other sooner rather than later. You need to be able to have your best 5 players on the court at any given time.

The 2 and 4 should be up for grabs based on the matchup. Neither of the players available is good enough to get any sort of guarantee.

I think as long as Schroder can hit 3s on the catch at 36% and Grant can hit his at 36%, we will be fine versus stiffer comp.

And what are the odds of that? Before the last two games Schröder was shooting 31.3 % on catch and shoot 3s. The last two games - going 4/4 - have pushed him to his current %. And with Grant is still very unlikely that he continues his current shooting with the starters. Both of them could easily go back to being slightly above or below 30 %. History is not on their side.

[hardenASG13]

I still am not missing Roberson. It's nice having 5 capable offensive players at a time at all times.

But you don't see that on the Thunder since Ferguson is a horrendous offensive player, and the two random games in which his 3 ball was falling don't change that, his shot still looks broken, and he still does nothing else in the halfcourt offense except shoot 3s very poorly.

Agree with you that Ferguson's numbers are not any better than roberson. He does force the D to at least repect/close out to him though, which helps with spacing.

Having NBA caliber players everywhere in the rotation helps too. Adding Noel, Schroeder, and Diallo, instead of Dakari (out of the league), felton/Christon (out of the league), and brewer (out of the league)/Huestis (out of the league??) is a massive upgrade. This is what I have been arguing for years, that given a roster with actual NBA players throughout, Roberson could be replaced completely and the D wouldn't fall apart. His absence this year isn't having nearly the impact it did last season, and it's because of the NBA caliber roster compared to last year and years past. The offense is generating great looks, the extra spacing is providing larger driving lanes, and there is a ton more room for adams to operate inside, where he is really taking advantage. Robersons impact never should have been nearly as high as it was as a defender who can't shoot or dribble. That's why there aren't many of them in the league. That is what I've been trying to explain to you about the stats everyone seems to live about him. In rotations with 2-3 guys every year who aren't NBA caliber, he sadly was a positive on the roster. That never should have been the case, and we are seeing that this year. No more scrubs. I haven't noticed him missing.

[slick_watts]

bruhhh. you have to wait a little while before making this post. you are living on the edge. this is like when you said brewer was better than dre last year. you're pulling up from 30 on this one.

[hardenASG13]

bruhhh. you have to wait a little while before making this post. you are living on the edge. this is like when you said brewer was better than dre last year. you're pulling up from 30 on this one.

Not really. Schroeder is a proven starting caliber player in his prime. Brewer I'm not sure ever was a starter, and was in his last year in the league. I was overlt optimistic on him, yes. I thought roberson was so insignificant that even brewer, with no backup by the way, could be a solid enough option. Ultimately the last year brewer/huestis/crappy abrines trio couldnt quite live up.

The other upgrades I mentioned, as well as internal development from abrines, grant, adams l, and the loss of melo are a huge difference. I'm not sure how or why you would debate that.

In your opinion, has this team ,which is 2 deep at every spot with NBA level talent, some of which is high end, missed roberson as much as last year? Even close?

They look damn good man. If you can't notice how better they look top to bottom this year than last you are blinded by your characters pessimism.

Oh and also brah, you are one to talk about making an early post. You were on here the second Westbrook ROLLED HIS ANKLE to try to passive aggressively brag about your irrational obsession with him suffering a major knee injury. "Knee, season over. That sucks."

[RalphSampsonJr]

I know November is only half way through.. but can you tell me who the top 3 players are in avg +/- in the entire NBA?

Ill give you three clues:

No 1 is a big ass kiwi

2nd is a dude with two first names

3rd is a German that we got once we cured our cancer

[getrichordie]

We are 1.5 games back from being 2nd in West.

And how many games has Westbrook played? How many games has Roberson played? This team is deep, boy.


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[Pillendreher]

I know November is only half way through.. but can you tell me who the top 3 players are in avg +/- in the entire NBA?

Ill give you three clues:

No 1 is a big ass kiwi

2nd is a dude with two first names

3rd is a German that we got once we cured our cancer

Well to be fair this is to be expected when you go 7-1 with that soft of a schedule. On the other hand it is impressive that they've managed to beat teams thorouhgly. In their 9 wins, they've beaten teams by 14 points on average. And yes, they have played a bunch of horrible teams, but still - last year's team managed to lose more than its fair share of these type of games.

[RalphSampsonJr]

I know November is only half way through.. but can you tell me who the top 3 players are in avg +/- in the entire NBA?

Ill give you three clues:

No 1 is a big ass kiwi

2nd is a dude with two first names

3rd is a German that we got once we cured our cancer

Well to be fair this is to be expected when you go 7-1 with that soft of a schedule. On the other hand it is impressive that they've managed to beat teams thorouhgly. In their 9 wins, they've beaten teams by 14 points on average. And yes, they have played a bunch of horrible teams, but still - last year's team managed to lose more than its fair share of these type of games.

Yea thats the biggest thing. When i see these weak teams on the schedule that nervous feeling seems to be going away. Last season you wouldnt know what you were gonna get. Now they seem to be executing the way they plan to