OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[Andre Roberstan]

If its all on players to work out on their own and get better, then why do so many role players seem to improve greatly when they are on the Spurs ?

For one the Spurs only tend to go after people who fit their philosophy (unselfish, team-first, smart).

For two their playbook is designed to put guys in position to make open shots in a way that few other teams in the league are (Hawks are another one).

For three Chip Engelland is a wizard.

[Soonerule]

I'm a proponent of letting Kanter walk and rolling the dice with Mitch McGary and more small ball. McGary had a productive rookie season, was a part of productive reserve lineups next to Nick Collison, and seems to have lost some weight over the summer which could bode well for his health. The Thunder's most consistently productive lineups have historically featured Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka at PF and C. Over the last three seasons those small ball lineups are +10 points per 100 possessions. Quite a feat considering all the wings that have flowed in and out of that sample over the years. In 2013-14, our best season, Durant played 20% of his minutes at PF. Seems unlikely we hit that figure if Kanter is retained. The incumbent starters (Adams-Ibaka-Durant-Roberson-Westbrook) have also been monstrously productive at +19 points per 100 possessions the last two seasons.

Having said that, I recognize Kanter will likely be re-signed. Either to a long term deal, or to the qualifying offer. The motivation to do so seems strange to me, especially when most of the discussion regarding Kanter (Thunder fans, or otherwise) appears centered more on mitigating his weaknesses than anything.

Now, if by some chance Kanter is re-signed and he becomes an acceptable defensive player? Then the broader discussion regarding Presti's decision making can be shelved for awhile.

I share your opinion of letting Kanter take a powder. When asked in this discussion if I was saying that nothing was better Kanter I said yes, nothing is better than Kanter. It may be simplistic logic, but zero has always been more than any negative number and Kanter is a career negative net player.

That said, I hope Kanter opts for the QO. It gives the Thunder a full season to see if his promise to work on his defense was legit or just another end of season interview answer that Kanter knew his questioner wanted to hear. I would rather pay more later for a known quantity than play slightly less now for something that may bring the house down... and yes, I feel the risk of losing him if he does improve is the risk worth taking.

[Soonerule]

If its all on players to work out on their own and get better, then why do so many role players seem to improve greatly when they are on the Spurs ?

For one the Spurs only tend to go after people who fit their philosophy (unselfish, team-first, smart).

For two their playbook is designed to put guys in position to make open shots in a way that few other teams in the league are (Hawks are another one).

For three Chip Engelland is a wizard.

Both on and off season development is important. In Kanter's case; there is quite literally gigabytes of video he could be analyzing with a mentor or coach right now that would help him tremendously. Of course he would then have to transfer what he learned onto the court, but at least he would have a better understanding and picture in his head of what to do. Right now he appears completely clueless and to be completely honest, I don't think he cares that he is.

His agent has been telling him exactly what he wanted to hear rather than what he needed to hear. His voice mail sitting empty instead of being flooded with the max offers Max promised will hopefully be a wake up call and gets with the program for the first time in his career.

[Andre Roberstan]

If its all on players to work out on their own and get better, then why do so many role players seem to improve greatly when they are on the Spurs ?

For one the Spurs only tend to go after people who fit their philosophy (unselfish, team-first, smart).

For two their playbook is designed to put guys in position to make open shots in a way that few other teams in the league are (Hawks are another one).

For three Chip Engelland is a wizard.

Both on and off season development is important. In Kanter's case; there is quite literally gigabytes of video he could be analyzing with a mentor or coach right now that would help him tremendously. Of course he would then have to transfer what he learned onto the court, but at least he would have a better understanding and picture in his head of what to do. Right now he appears completely clueless and to be completely honest, I don't think he cares that he is.

His agent has been telling him exactly what he wanted to hear rather than what he needed to hear. His voice mail sitting empty instead of being flooded with the max offers Max promised will hopefully be a wake up call and gets with the program for the first time in his career.

The fact that Billy D and Presti are both advanced stats junkies doesn't bode well for his contract negotiations. Or his play time for that matter, if we sign him and he doesn't improve his D in a hurry. Plus his agent only has one client. Zero leverage. Having preexisting relationships with people (see Mark Cuban and Dan Fegan's preexisting relationship—Fegan also wanted Dwight on the Mavs over the Rockets if I remember right) helps a lot for getting maximum value out of a contract.

[slick_watts]

I don't buy the non amnesty of Perk as a " value " move , I think Presti's options were limited. Perk was untradeable, who was gonna take on that contract ? Presti moved Perk as soon as possible. As to amnesty, there was nothing to be gained when the amnesty was available. The possible upgrade of the position was so small, it was not worth making the move, especially considering Perks value in the locker room. Which btw, I bet Adams misses Perk and Kanter could use a lot of Perk .

Keeping Kendrick Perkins was absolutely a value decision. Sam Presti traded Perkins on the day of the trade deadline; the 11th hour. Do you think that Presti arrived at the conclusion that Perkins wasn't the best fit for the team that day? Of course not. But keeping him around was still acceptable value vs. the mediocre return he would have gotten in previous seasons, or the dead money represented by using the amnesty provision. Presti got the most value he could out of Perkins by trading him when his contract represented the smallest risk / investment to the team acquiring him.

Kendrick Perkins ranked 58th of 64 centers in RPM in 2013-14. Alexis Ajinca was signed to a league minimum contract by the Pelicans in 2013-14 and had two seasons more productive than Perkins before agreeing to an MLE contract this week. The idea that there were not many possible upgrades at the position is disingenuous. By 2013-14, practically any center replacement would have been a measurable upgrade.

But overall, yes Presti collects assets. That's how he built the team from day one in Seattle. He collected small assets, combined them, and moved them for more value.

This was a fine way to build a team around Kevin Durant, but is it the optimal method to produce a champion? Jury is out.

Before I write off Kanter as a mistake, I want to see what this coaching staff can do with him. But I'm not optimistic. I don't discount the coaching he got in Utah. I would feel better if Brooks was still in place, he and his coaches are proven at developing players. I got a feeling Donovan is gonna be hip deep in learning, before he can get much involved in defense and specifically , Kanter's development. I'm afraid training camp will be mostly an adjustment by everyone, coaches acclimating to each other and players acclimating to new coaches.

Kanter wasn't a mistake. Presti had to get value for Perkins at some point, he just waited until the last minute and Kanter was the best thing available. There's value in Kanter. Having right of first refusal is valuable; the chance, however slim, that his defense could turn around has some value.

I'm lukewarm on the coaching 'explanation' for Kanter's problems. That same coaching didn't have a problem fielding a Top 3 defense after he was traded.

In the exit interviews after this past season, every Thunder player who spoke of defense, spoke in terms of team defense, not man on man on ball defense. And that's what has been in place since Ron Adams was here in 2010. Will that continue ? That would serve Kanter and he would gain from a full training camp in that type of defense.

Team defense is by far the most important kind of defense. Kanter is a sieve in the pick and roll. My subjective view is that he lacks effort more than he lacks understanding (though, he does lack that as well). I'm sure it's possible he can improve. If he does, Presti's value-based approach will finally be vindicated somewhat. For what it's worth, I'm less hopeful on Dion Waiters panning out than Enes Kanter.

[Thunderhead]

If its all on players to work out on their own and get better, then why do so many role players seem to improve greatly when they are on the Spurs ?

For one the Spurs only tend to go after people who fit their philosophy (unselfish, team-first, smart).

For two their playbook is designed to put guys in position to make open shots in a way that few other teams in the league are (Hawks are another one).

For three Chip Engelland is a wizard.

That's pretty much what I'm speaking to ..... is developing players within a system .

And that's what might be lost with this transition to a new coaching staff. Will the old defensive system be kept in place ? Or a new one installed ? If its all new, then ALL the players will be learning / adapting .... and that makes it harder to incorporate a " new " player .

IDK, it remains to be seen if this coaching change will be a help or hindrance to the development of Kanter, if he signs with the Thunder.

[kd 35]

Great Q&A from Royce Young with Cam Payne.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/13211871/nba-oklahoma-city-thunder-cameron-payne-working-patience-summer-league

Some snippets:

But what bothers Payne most isn't just that he's missing out on an opportunity to improve on the floor. It's that Kevin Durant, Dion Waiters and Anthony Morrow are there watching and he's not showing off what he can do.

Young: You've been in Oklahoma City the last few weeks. What are your impressions?

Payne: It's a great city, and I'm glad to be a part of it. It keeps you focused, the fact it's a smaller city, it keeps me focused. That's what I need. When I was at Murray [State], a small town, kept me focused, and I got here. Just looking to do some of the same things, be focused and do the best I can do.

Young: You talked on draft night [saying that] you see some similarities in your game and Mike Conley's. You're not just stereotyping left-handed guys, are you?

Payne: That's just a person I watch a lot. We're both left-handed, but I mean, yeah, I guess you could say it's a stereotype. We're just both crafty players and we do a lot of the same things.

[Marcus50]

Taking the QO is a huge risk for Kanter and seems incredibly unlikely if he is getting sound advice. QO is circa $7.5M.
If Kanter signs the QO and Adams starts then is he going to get any more at the end of the year in FA than he is being offered currently? If he starts and his defense is poor again is he any better of in FA? ANd the fallout with the JAzz is probably giving some GM's second thoughts as well so perhaps he may well be better simply signing the Presti terms sheet

[Hbp3300]

I enjoyed watching Kanter this past season, and thought his fixable to at least get him to the point of just below average. The more I hear about his stats, contract demands, and think about our other options, I'm not sure he can contribute to a championship team. If Adams and McGary progress as expected I feel like they would be better options going forward, and that Kanter would only hurt their development. At least if Kanter is really struggling defensively the Thunder will have plenty of other options.

[Thunderhead]

I don't buy the non amnesty of Perk as a " value " move , I think Presti's options were limited. Perk was untradeable, who was gonna take on that contract ? Presti moved Perk as soon as possible. As to amnesty, there was nothing to be gained when the amnesty was available. The possible upgrade of the position was so small, it was not worth making the move, especially considering Perks value in the locker room. Which btw, I bet Adams misses Perk and Kanter could use a lot of Perk .

Keeping Kendrick Perkins was absolutely a value decision. Sam Presti traded Perkins on the day of the trade deadline; the 11th hour. Do you think that Presti arrived at the conclusion that Perkins wasn't the best fit for the team that day? Of course not. But keeping him around was still acceptable value vs. the mediocre return he would have gotten in previous seasons, or the dead money represented by using the amnesty provision. Presti got the most value he could out of Perkins by trading him when his contract represented the smallest risk / investment to the team acquiring him.

Kendrick Perkins ranked 58th of 64 centers in RPM in 2013-14. Alexis Ajinca was signed to a league minimum contract by the Pelicans in 2013-14 and had two seasons more productive than Perkins before agreeing to an MLE contract this week. The idea that there were not many possible upgrades at the position is disingenuous. By 2013-14, practically any center replacement would have been a measurable upgrade.

But by 2013/14 , Adams was the starting center. Perk's role was changed. And I think you underestimate Perk as a defensive player. Its been said a thousand times, but stats aren't gonna tell the story on Perk's productivity. There's not a stat yet devised that quantifies defense.

And its not just a matter of finding another warm body to play center, with Presti, its about finding a center who fits.

[Soonerule]

But by 2013/14 , Adams was the starting center. Perk's role was changed. And I think you underestimate Perk as a defensive player. Its been said a thousand times, but stats aren't gonna tell the story on Perk's productivity. There's not a stat yet devised that quantifies defense.

And its not just a matter of finding another warm body to play center, with Presti, its about finding a center who fits.

I don't think Perk ever fully recovered from the knee injury he sustained in the Finals against LA. Not fully. When you watch clips of him before the injury he had deceptively quick lateral motion that wasn't present here. I don't think anyone can say that Perk didn't do everything in his power to regain it because the man dropped 70+ lb's the summer after he came to OKC. Unfortunately, the weight loss had a negative effect on his overall physical presence and the wear and tear of years playing the enforcer were taking a further toll. I feel like Presti rode that pony til he gave out and then made the trade in February knowing he wasn't going to re-sign Perk in the hopes that Kanter would show some indication of a pulse on defense. He didn't, so here we sit, waiting to see what will happen with his contract.

[Thunderhead]

And really, whether Presti could've amnestied Perk and found a better center , comes down to subjective opinion. In hindsight, Presti could've had Hassan Whiteside , but heck, that's not realistic when it comes to measuring Presti .

[Old Man Game]

I think it's on Kanter to improve defensively. He's got to want it and commit himself on that end. The issue is I'm afraid he'll be one of those guys who gets his big payday and sort of stops caring altogether.

As far as the change to Billy, head coaches don't really develop players despite the credit we as fans commonly give to them. Desmond Mason was on the radio around the time of the Donovan rumors percolating and said as much. Said NBA players develop in the offseason with their own personal trainers and shooting coaches (I know, I know, the irony). Even KD mentioned this when interviewed at Summer League the other day. Said Billy had actually been on the court working him out some and that was pretty cool to have your head coach doing that (the implication being because it wouldn't ordinarily occur).

I don't think head coaches develop players. But their coaching staffs do. And their schemes and philosophies can help players develop. Reggie Jackson was terrible as a rookie, I don't think he got to where he's at on his own in the summer. I think the coaching staff worked with him, and he was allowed to play his way to getting better. For him, it was gaining confidence as much as skill improvment.

All due respect to Desmond, but for young players, PT in real games with coaches grading and guidance, is a huge part of development. They can work out on their own, but until they put it on the court in real games, it falls short. Just watch the start of this season, when players try to add what they worked on during the summer in real games. Some times it helps them, some times it does not, some times they keep that as part of their game, and some times not.

And what Kanter needs is a scheme. His on ball , one on one skill , is not nearly as important as just knowing where to be on the court. And being able to recognize the play developing. He won't get that on his own in the summer.

You don't have to take my word for it. Take it straight from Enes.

https://youtu.be/Lojid8MGUl0?t=362

[Thunderhead]

wow, starting to get some answers already

“One thing I know with Andre Roberson starting last year and just his defensive ability and length and being able to put him on the other team’s best offensive player last year was very, very effective for their team.”

I think I'm liking this guy Donovan , a lot more at the link

http://newsok.com/billy-donovan-wants-to-make-things-easier-for-stars-kevin-durant-russell-westbrook/article/5432300

[slick_watts]

But by 2013/14 , Adams was the starting center.

Kendrick Perkins started all 62 games he played in 2013-14. Perkins' starting position was not given to Adams until 2014-15.

Perk's role was changed. And I think you underestimate Perk as a defensive player. Its been said a thousand times, but stats aren't gonna tell the story on Perk's productivity. There's not a stat yet devised that quantifies defense.

There are plenty of stats that quantify defense. How well they do so is up for debate. But, usually when you find a consensus across multiple measures of a thing, that's probably a sign that you're closing in on reality. There's no doubt that Perkins was an adequate defensive player, but he falls short of 'elite' status on any metric you want to throw out there.

Looking at lineup data from 2013-14 it's clear that lineups featuring Adams were better than the same lineups that featured Perkins, and Adams was a rookie. The fact of the matter is that there are / were plenty of players out there who were more productive than Perkins -- virtually any center out there you could pick would have been by 2013-14. I can't make an argument one way or another for 'intangibles' or what stats can't tell me about Perkins' productivity, because those are non-quantifiable, subjective qualities. We could go back and forth on that forever and it'd be a ridiculous, unending debate. What I know is that even a cursory look at any kind of statistical data will tell you that Perkins was, at best, a mediocre option at center by 2012-13, and he got worse every year. Finding an upgrade wouldn't have been difficult, Perkins was below replacement level. I'm open to discussion that refutes this position, just not a subjective lecture on 'intangibles'.

And its not just a matter of finding another warm body to play center, with Presti, its about finding a center who fits.

Fits how? How did Kendrick Perkins fit in the 2011-12 Finals? How did Kendrick Perkins fit in the 2012-13 playoffs where he set records for playoff futility? Sam Presti didn't wake up on the day of the trade deadline last season and suddenly decide "Kendrick Perkins isn't the right fit, it's time to extract value from his contract and trade him". That's asinine. Presti knew this before the deadline, and if he knew it before the deadline he certainly knew it by 2013-14 when Perkins bottomed out. The difference? Removing Perkins was not a value proposition until the 2014-15 trade deadline.

[Thunderhead]

But by 2013/14 , Adams was the starting center.

Kendrick Perkins started all 62 games he played in 2013-14. Perkins' starting position was not given to Adams until 2014-15.

Perk's role was changed. And I think you underestimate Perk as a defensive player. Its been said a thousand times, but stats aren't gonna tell the story on Perk's productivity. There's not a stat yet devised that quantifies defense.

There are plenty of stats that quantify defense. How well they do so is up for debate. But, usually when you find a consensus across multiple measures of a thing, that's probably a sign that you're closing in on reality. There's no doubt that Perkins was an adequate defensive player, but he falls short of 'elite' status on any metric you want to throw out there.

Looking at lineup data from 2013-14 it's clear that lineups featuring Adams were better than the same lineups that featured Perkins, and Adams was a rookie. The fact of the matter is that there are / were plenty of players out there who were more productive than Perkins -- virtually any center out there you could pick would have been by 2013-14. I can't make an argument one way or another for 'intangibles' or what stats can't tell me about Perkins' productivity, because those are non-quantifiable, subjective qualities. We could go back and forth on that forever and it'd be a ridiculous, unending debate. What I know is that even a cursory look at any kind of statistical data will tell you that Perkins was, at best, a mediocre option at center by 2012-13, and he got worse every year. Finding an upgrade wouldn't have been difficult, Perkins was below replacement level. I'm open to discussion that refutes this position, just not a subjective lecture on 'intangibles'.

And its not just a matter of finding another warm body to play center, with Presti, its about finding a center who fits.

Fits how? How did Kendrick Perkins fit in the 2011-12 Finals? How did Kendrick Perkins fit in the 2012-13 playoffs where he set records for playoff futility? Sam Presti didn't wake up on the day of the trade deadline last season and suddenly decide "Kendrick Perkins isn't the right fit, it's time to extract value from his contract and trade him". That's asinine. Presti knew this before the deadline, and if he knew it before the deadline he certainly knew it by 2013-14 when Perkins bottomed out. The difference? Removing Perkins was not a value proposition until the 2014-15 trade deadline.

Subjective opinion ..............

[Thunderhead]

How do you quantify , a player on the team who holds other players accountable to play defense ?

You can't. All the advanced stats in the world won't measure that.

What I know for sure, is that after Perk left this past season, the defense went to chit . I can't put that into statistical form, its just what happened.

[slick_watts]

And really, whether Presti could've amnestied Perk and found a better center , comes down to subjective opinion. In hindsight, Presti could've had Hassan Whiteside , but heck, that's not realistic when it comes to measuring Presti .

Greg Steimsma was waived by the Timberwolves in July 2013. He was signed to the BAE by the Pelicans that summer ($2.5mm) and by just about any measurement was similar or better than Perkins that season.

Robert Sacre signed with the Lakers for the league minimum in July 2013. Far from a productive player, he was measurably similar and even better in some ways than Kendrick Perkins.

Jon Leuer signed with the Grizzlies for league minimum in July 2013. Good three point shooter. Meh defensive player. Not that good. But, still better than Kendrick Perkins

Jeff Ayres signed with the Spurs for a portion of their tax payer MLE ($1.75mm). He was solid for San Antonio, measurably better than Perkins.

There are plenty more examples. You may argue that Perkins had intangible value to the team that those guys couldn't replace. Okay. I have no rebuttal because honestly I don't think either one of us knows. But claiming that there weren't comparable or better players available to replace his productivity is just straight up wrong, in my opinion. Presti could have sought an upgrade at the position. It just wasn't an attractive value.

[slick_watts]

How do you quantify , a player on the team who holds other players accountable to play defense ?

You can't. All the advanced stats in the world won't measure that.

What I know for sure, is that after Perk left this past season, the defense went to chit . I can't put that into statistical form, its just what happened.

The defense was about league average so long as Enes Kanter was not present on the court. Serge Ibaka only playing 350 minutes after the trade due to injury had a bigger effect on the defense being poor than Perkins being missing.

Let me ask you a question. Do you think our defense is doomed next season if we don't sign Perkins?

[bondom34]

Oh, I certainly see Perk as a value move. He wasn't traded til he was semi palatable in trade and even then needed a draft pick attached. There were better players available most likely sooner, and I stick up for Perk when I see it, but his trade definitely smelled of timing to maximize value.