2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[ThunderBolt]

Spoiler:

This board has more interest when the team sucks.

I can give you a couple of nuggets if you're thirsty for Thunder talk:

-Per pbpstats.com, the Thunder are now up to 25th in ORtG after made baskets at 103.0. They were at 98 a week ago iirc.
-Also per pbpstats.com, they are currently 23rd in ORtG after missed fga at 106.8. A week ago they were at 112 iirc.
-Overall they're currently 11th at 108.2 ORtG. A full two points back from the Top 10 and with a 1.7 points cushion on the bottom 10. Given that Russ has missed like half the games so far, I'll take that any day of the week, honestly.
-George is leading the league catch and shoot 3PA per game, but he's just made 33 % of those shots so far. Pre ASB last year (before he lost his shooting touch) he was making 43 % of those shots. I really hope the last two games have given him something to build on shooting wise.
-I went through all 30 teams' scoring margins. There are currently 3 teams who have lead by 20 or more points for at least 10 % of their games so far. #1 is the Bucks at 15 %. #3 is the Warriors at 11 %. And #2 is the Thhunder at 12 %. I know the schedule hasn't been that hard, but I think that's still a noteworthy accomplishment, especially since their starting backcourt has missed 3/4 of the games so far.
-Steven Adams is currently among the best in the league in On/Off NetRtG at +22. He's been good. And with not so much space due to the lack of shooters.
-Among 4 man lineups with at least 160 minutes played, the Ferguson-George-Grant-Adams starters are #1 in NetRtG, #1 in ORtG and #6 in DRtG (out a total 63 lineups). Again: Schedule hasn't been that difficult, but this is still very impressive imo, especially with both Russ and Roberson missing games.

I’m not surprised about Adams on/off rating. The key to maximizing this teams potential involves making him a regular part of the offense through four quarters. We’ve seen for two years now that we tend to start the game with an emphasis on getting him the ball only to disappear as the game goes on. That can’t continue to happen.

Also, just as some of Schroeder’s value is in allowing Russ to have more rest, we need Noel to give enough minutes so Adams doesn’t wear down as the season goes on

[RalphSampsonJr]

Spoiler:

This board has more interest when the team sucks.

I can give you a couple of nuggets if you're thirsty for Thunder talk:

-Per pbpstats.com, the Thunder are now up to 25th in ORtG after made baskets at 103.0. They were at 98 a week ago iirc.
-Also per pbpstats.com, they are currently 23rd in ORtG after missed fga at 106.8. A week ago they were at 112 iirc.
-Overall they're currently 11th at 108.2 ORtG. A full two points back from the Top 10 and with a 1.7 points cushion on the bottom 10. Given that Russ has missed like half the games so far, I'll take that any day of the week, honestly.
-George is leading the league catch and shoot 3PA per game, but he's just made 33 % of those shots so far. Pre ASB last year (before he lost his shooting touch) he was making 43 % of those shots. I really hope the last two games have given him something to build on shooting wise.
-I went through all 30 teams' scoring margins. There are currently 3 teams who have lead by 20 or more points for at least 10 % of their games so far. #1 is the Bucks at 15 %. #3 is the Warriors at 11 %. And #2 is the Thhunder at 12 %. I know the schedule hasn't been that hard, but I think that's still a noteworthy accomplishment, especially since their starting backcourt has missed 3/4 of the games so far.
-Steven Adams is currently among the best in the league in On/Off NetRtG at +22. He's been good. And with not so much space due to the lack of shooters.
-Among 4 man lineups with at least 160 minutes played, the Ferguson-George-Grant-Adams starters are #1 in NetRtG, #1 in ORtG and #6 in DRtG (out a total 63 lineups). Again: Schedule hasn't been that difficult, but this is still very impressive imo, especially with both Russ and Roberson missing games.

I’m not surprised about Adams on/off rating. The key to maximizing this teams potential involves making him a regular part of the offense through four quarters. We’ve seen for two years now that we tend to start the game with an emphasis on getting him the ball only to disappear as the game goes on. That can’t continue to happen.

Also, just as some of Schroeder’s value is in allowing Russ to have more rest, we need Noel to give enough minutes so Adams doesn’t wear down as the season goes on

I feel like Billy hasnt let Noel get comfortable this season with the scattered minutes. When hes on he seems to be trying too hard and fouling like mad

[thekaoswithin]

Not sure how much basketball you guys play but the heavier you're being leaned on (especially in PGs case where he has to be fully engaged on both sides of the floor) it's extremely tough to keep your focus and keep a consistent shooting form, keep your legs under you etc. It might just be that he's exhausted from the 2 way load he carries. Things will hopefully clear up with Russ back.

[Pillendreher]

The bench has been a little out of whack with the Russ injuries. I think as soon as he stops missing games, a steady diet of Schröder will do wonders for that unit. Over the last 6 (going all the way back to the Pelicans game), the team's ORtG with Noel on the floor (so basically the bench unit) has been 79.6. Noel with and without Schröder on the court with him has been a 18pp100p difference in ORtG so far. No more Felton will be very good for this team.

EDIT:

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[Pillendreher]

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[Pillendreher]

Two key differences compared to last season on offense so far: George has been hitting his midrange jumpshot and Schröder has been able to both score at the rim and hit the midrange jumpshot as well. Last season George shot 33.2 % from midrange; this season he's at 41.6 % at 2 more attempts per game. He's improved from 34.8 % on pull-up 2s to 42.6 %.
And Schröder's been scoring on every second drive (weird thing is: He's currently shooting the worst % of his career right at the rim, but I could swear he's been great at getting and scoring there) while shooting 43.1 % from the midrange/39.7 % on pull-up 2s.

I don't think those midrangers are ideal shots, but so far the Thunder are in the middle of the pack in attempts per game (13th) while making 41.1 % of them (15th overall). That's not among the best, but as long as their main guys stay above 40 % on those shots and they don't overdo it with the attempts, I'm fine with it. It is certainly much better than bricking them like last season.

EDIT: One other noticeable improvement is the change in the defensive scheme. Through the first 15 games of the season, Adams has defended the 5th most attempts at the rim. Over the last two seasons, just 37.2 % of his defended shots were less than 6 ft. away from the basket. This season that number is up to 49.3 %. He's defended closer to the basket and I think it has helped this team immensely because it has somewhat prevented the regular breakdowns we saw last season after Roberson went down.

[slick_watts]

the thunder started 0-4. half of those games without russell westbrook, and the usual suspect scapegoaters were here in droves calling for donovan to be fired.

the thunder have since went 10-1, half of those games without russell westbrook, and not one word on donovan righting the ship at least for the time being.

the team is 3rd in defense. without andre roberson! how incredible would that be if it sustains. will donovan get credit for that from the scapegoaters? i hope we get to find out.

[ThunderBolt]

I was thinking recently that we haven’t seen Donovan play Noel and Adams together yet. I’ll give him credit that rotations have been less experimental this season.

[hardenASG13]

the thunder started 0-4. half of those games without russell westbrook, and the usual suspect scapegoaters were here in droves calling for donovan to be fired.

the thunder have since went 10-1, half of those games without russell westbrook, and not one word on donovan righting the ship at least for the time being.

the team is 3rd in defense. without andre roberson! how incredible would that be if it sustains. will donovan get credit for that from the scapegoaters? i hope we get to find out.

Would you admit that Robersons impact was comically overstated if it does? From what I've seen, the defense is fine (great actually) without him, due to not regularly playing guys that would otherwise be out of the league in his place. The offense is much more watchable/effective, although in addition to not having Roberson in there for 30mpg, improved play from adams and grant, as well as how amazing Schroeder has been have certainly played a role.

[Kizz Fastfists]

the thunder have since went 10-1, half of those games without russell westbrook, and not one word on donovan righting the ship at least for the time being.

Donovan is garbage! He says the team is getting the shots he wants, but at 31.4% from 3 while shooting 51.7% on 2pt shots even a first grader can do the math to know they need to take less 3s. Donovan wants a team that can't shoot to take their most inefficient shots. Fire the idiot and bring in someone that understands scoring matters. OKC is averaging 102.2 ppg against teams in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. They won't win many games against decent defenses because as good as OKC's defense is they won't be able to score enough and will lose a bunch of low scoring games when they get to the part of the schedule where they play real teams regularly. Five of OKC's wins are against the 3 worst teams in the NBA.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Would you admit that Robersons impact was comically overstated if it does? From what I've seen, the defense is fine (great actually) without him, due to not regularly playing guys that would otherwise be out of the league in his place. The offense is much more watchable/effective, although in addition to not having Roberson in there for 30mpg, improved play from adams and grant, as well as how amazing Schroeder has been have certainly played a role.

No. I would argue the offense looks better with more ball movement because Russ is out. When Russ comes back it will be the same offense it has been, which will only highlight the fact that this team can't shoot. No one has ever said they didn't want a better player in the place of Roberson. No one has ever said they didn't want a better player over ANYONE on the roster.

[spearsy23]

the thunder started 0-4. half of those games without russell westbrook, and the usual suspect scapegoaters were here in droves calling for donovan to be fired.

the thunder have since went 10-1, half of those games without russell westbrook, and not one word on donovan righting the ship at least for the time being.

the team is 3rd in defense. without andre roberson! how incredible would that be if it sustains. will donovan get credit for that from the scapegoaters? i hope we get to find out.

Going to admit Beyer is a genius?

[CROklahoma]

Beyer sucks ! Its all Donovan's change ! Beyer is here just to collect the balls on training camps and having a muppet in charge of defensive assistant coach !

[getrichordie]

the thunder have since went 10-1, half of those games without russell westbrook, and not one word on donovan righting the ship at least for the time being.

Donovan is garbage! He says the team is getting the shots he wants, but at 31.4% from 3 while shooting 51.7% on 2pt shots even a first grader can do the math to know they need to take less 3s. Donovan wants a team that can't shoot to take their most inefficient shots. Fire the idiot and bring in someone that understands scoring matters. OKC is averaging 102.2 ppg against teams in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. They won't win many games against decent defenses because as good as OKC's defense is they won't be able to score enough and will lose a bunch of low scoring games when they get to the part of the schedule where they play real teams regularly. Five of OKC's wins are against the 3 worst teams in the NBA.

Just wow.

This is such a bad take.

Has anyone noticed that teams that make the change to give everyone a green light from 3 struggle from their from the get go? You just have to trust that the 3s are going to fall at least a 3rd of the time, which we are not that far away from.

Our defense is are calling card which allows us to take those shots without suffering too much. We need to be taking smart 3s, which we are clearly getting better at. If you think a team can have a good offensive rating by not taking many 3s in this day and age, you better look at what’s happening around the league.


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[slick_watts]

Would you admit that Robersons impact was comically overstated if it does? From what I've seen, the defense is fine (great actually) without him, due to not regularly playing guys that would otherwise be out of the league in his place.

the defense was a lot better last season in games where andre roberson played. no, his impact is not 'comically overstated', and is well supported by objective evidence over many seasons. that the thunder have been able to scrape together an effective defense to this point without him is a credit to the thunder though, as it's something they have not been able to do for years.

The offense is much more watchable/effective, although in addition to not having Roberson in there for 30mpg, improved play from adams and grant, as well as how amazing Schroeder has been have certainly played a role.

no, this isn't true. the offense is not more effective. schroder really hasn't been that good either. why are we even talking about this?

Donovan is garbage! He says the team is getting the shots he wants, but at 31.4% from 3 while shooting 51.7% on 2pt shots even a first grader can do the math to know they need to take less 3s. Donovan wants a team that can't shoot to take their most inefficient shots. Fire the idiot and bring in someone that understands scoring matters. OKC is averaging 102.2 ppg against teams in the top 15 in defensive efficiency. They won't win many games against decent defenses because as good as OKC's defense is they won't be able to score enough and will lose a bunch of low scoring games when they get to the part of the schedule where they play real teams regularly. Five of OKC's wins are against the 3 worst teams in the NBA.

i think you're losing your mind. my only comment is on donovan, the defense, and the double standard. double standards are the worst. donovan deserves credit for the team playing will if he is going to be unilaterally blamed for the team playing poorly.

i don't believe the thunder are a great team. i think the defense is playing over their heads and the offense will struggle against better competition.

Going to admit Beyer is a genius?

what has been attributed to him, exactly? the scapegoaters attribute virtually all of the thunder problems to donovan when the team loses. it's only fair that he's credited when the team wins, if you're going to attribute losses to him for no reason other than 'he's the head coach and he's responsible'. yes, that's literally the justification the scapegoaters use here when the thunder lose a few games.

donovan's not a great coach it's just funny how selective some people are with assigning credit and blame.

[getrichordie]

I really don’t understand people giving Beyer credit. What is it that points to him as a reason why we are succeeding?


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[Pillendreher]

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The Ferguson-Grant starters are literally the best lineup in the NBA so far:



Amazing.

[hardenASG13]

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The Ferguson-Grant starters are literally the best lineup in the NBA so far:



Amazing.

And yet you still are arguing for patterson to replace grant, who is out playing him on a nightly basis and showing to be a very good role player.

[Old Man Game]

Donovan sucks. Period. The schedule's been soft and this is a superstar league. Fact is we've had the advantage in star power in nearly all these games even without Russ in the line up. Only the Houston game was that not true and Houston was in the middle of an existential crisis in the form of Melo. So don't give me anything about Billdoh's accomplishments. He's a replacement level coach at best.

[Old Man Game]

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The Ferguson-Grant starters are literally the best lineup in the NBA so far:



Amazing.

cot damn I'm glad I got on the Ferg bandwagon when I did. I really thought his absence last night was noticeable in that first half. He has a pretty stabilizing presence on the defensive end of the floor.