2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

Trade Roberson.


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I talked about this one or two weeks ago: While the starter without Roberson have been (much) better than last season defensively, the big difference is actually the bench.

Roberson-George-Adams had a 93.2 DRtG last season. George-Grant-Adams is at 102.4. That's almost 10pp100p.

This is where they've been excellent: Maintaining a very good defense throughout the whole roster.



I think Noel is a huge part of that.

Noel has no doubt been great in limited minutes but he seems to be fouling at a very high rate isnt he? Dont have the numbers just get that impression from watching him

8.9 PF per 100 possessions is 2nd in the nba to amir johnson among players with 200+ minutes this year. and it's quite a lot for a non-rookie if he maintains that.

[getrichordie]

Westbrook/Ferguson 2-man lineups have a significantly higher NetRtg than Westbrook/Roberson 2-man lineups last year.

0-0


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[getrichordie]

In 36 minutes last year, Grant and Roberson with Westbrook, George, and Adams:

72.1 ORtg
75.0 DRtg
47.6 TS%
1.13 AST/TO

In 76 minutes this year, with Ferguson taking Roberson’s minutes:

118.3 ORtg
94.6 DRtg
63.6 TS%
1.83 AST/TO




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[slick_watts]

In 36 minutes last year, Grant and Roberson with Westbrook, George, and Adams:

72.1 ORtg
75.0 DRtg
47.6 TS%
1.13 AST/TO

In 76 minutes this year, with Ferguson taking Roberson’s minutes:

118.3 ORtg
94.6 DRtg
63.6 TS%
1.83 AST/TO

tumbling down the rabbit hole we go.

[getrichordie]

In 36 minutes last year, Grant and Roberson with Westbrook, George, and Adams:

72.1 ORtg
75.0 DRtg
47.6 TS%
1.13 AST/TO

In 76 minutes this year, with Ferguson taking Roberson’s minutes:

118.3 ORtg
94.6 DRtg
63.6 TS%
1.83 AST/TO

tumbling down the rabbit hole we go.

So you think the Roberson/Grant starters will be better than the Ferguson/Grant starters if Roberson comes back 90%?


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[slick_watts]

In 36 minutes last year, Grant and Roberson with Westbrook, George, and Adams:

72.1 ORtg
75.0 DRtg
47.6 TS%
1.13 AST/TO

In 76 minutes this year, with Ferguson taking Roberson’s minutes:

118.3 ORtg
94.6 DRtg
63.6 TS%
1.83 AST/TO

tumbling down the rabbit hole we go.

So you think the Roberson/Grant starters will be better than the Ferguson/Grant starters if Roberson comes back 90%?

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yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

[getrichordie]

tumbling down the rabbit hole we go.

So you think the Roberson/Grant starters will be better than the Ferguson/Grant starters if Roberson comes back 90%?

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yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

The Roberson/Grant starters last year isn’t evidence? Small sample size, sure. But 36 minutes played together and can’t eclipse 73 pts per 100? That’s bad.


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[slick_watts]

So you think the Roberson/Grant starters will be better than the Ferguson/Grant starters if Roberson comes back 90%?

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

The Roberson/Grant starters last year isn’t evidence? Small sample size, sure. But 36 minutes played together and can’t eclipse 73 pts per 100? That’s bad.


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i'd require hundreds of minutes, preferably > 1k, to convince me given a ) the long history of strong performance of 'dre starters, b ) terrance ferguson's rpm initialization being horrific despite playing in these successful lineups and c ) 'dre's individual impact being measurably superior in nearly every way.

no, 36 minutes isn't statistically significant.

[spearsy23]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

This is a play we run all the time and there's just no real point. It's action designed to do nothing but eat up some clock.

[getrichordie]

All I know is I’d rather have Ferguson in the corner for 3 than Roberson.


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[spearsy23]

All I know is I’d rather have Ferguson in the corner for 3 than Roberson.


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Pretty well sums it up.

[slick_watts]

it's too bad that synergy stats on nba.com are dead. seems like we're doing more cutting. that schroder / adams play is a thing now i guess and even westbrook is shaking off the moss on occasion and foraying towards the rim without the ball.

either schroder or grant becoming league average three point shooters would have been an incredible blessing but both would be a miracle and change the dynamic of the team significantly. not really buying either of them so far but so far so good.

[Pillendreher]

So 18 games in, I've looked at our DRtG in the individual games and compared it to the teams' ORtG on the season. Out of the first 18 games played, we've allowed a higher DRtG than the opposing team's average only 3x:

-In the first loss to Sacramento (11.3 pp100p worse),
-in the loss to Dallas (8.8 pp100p worse) and
-in the 2nd Phoenix game (0.3 pp100p worse).

Other than that, we've kept teams below their season average 15 out 18 times, ie in ~83 % of the games. Overall, teams have scored 6.4 pp100p less than their season average against us so far. I consider this a very impressive achivement, especially since staying close to that 5-6 pp100p better than the rest of the league DRtG usually leads to 50+ win seasons historically.

EDIT: One thing to keep an eye on as the season progresses is the discrepancy regarding expected and actual FG% on some of our opponents' shots. 18 games in, we're still the team with the biggest difference between expected 3P% and real 3P% at -3.1 percentage points. Overall we're 6th in Diff% (teams are just shooting 0.4 percentage points worse than expected from the 2pt range against us). I fear that this is more variance than one might think, but looking at the hustle stats the NBA provides, it looks like we're actually still very active when it comes to contesting shots, so I guess it can't just be "all variance":



Last season, they only contested 73.8 % of their opponents' FGA (78.8 % on 3s, 70.8 % on 2s) per the same data.

[Pillendreher]

Read on Twitter

After last night's game Adams is at +20.3 On/Off ORtG and George at +15.6.

[Atomic Punk]

tumbling down the rabbit hole we go.

So you think the Roberson/Grant starters will be better than the Ferguson/Grant starters if Roberson comes back 90%?

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yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

While I am not the biggest Roberson fan, I have to agree with slick on this one. Ferguson has not shown much at all and has looked mediocre at best this season. I am not sure he has taken a step back, but he certainly hasn’t taken a step forward. It’s early, but still.

A 90% Roberson would have a significantly more positive impact than Ferguson. In fact, if Roberson were to come back at 90%, he should immediately be inserted into the starting lineup with Diallo as his primary backup.

[AirInTheLoop]

yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

Yah, i love the defense we are playing this season and Ferguson has done a great job, but if Roberson is 90-100% on his return, we become possibly one of the best defensive teams ever.

I really like what Ferguson is developing in to.
Its almost as if when Westbrook told him to delete his twitter, he also sat him down, gave him some dvd's of Roberson and told him "you need to do that" and he seems to be coming along quite nicely in terms of defensive development. That said, his goal would still be becoming Roberson. I don't think people realized it last season, but even in his limited playing time (and the previous seasons) he made a damn good case for defensive player of the year and proved he was unquestionably the best defensive 2 guard in the NBA.

All of that said, him coming back at 90-100% is very questionable.

While I am not the biggest Roberson fan, I have to agree with slick on this one. Ferguson has not shown much at all and has looked mediocre at best this season. I am not sure he has taken a step back, but he certainly hasn’t taken a step forward. It’s early, but still.

I very much have to disagree with Fergusons development here.
If you watch him he is doing a great job at staying in front of his guy, contesting shots, he's understanding switches now, he's being a great help defender, he's no longer super reckless with his arms. He has definitely taken multiple steps forward on the defensive end and as i said earlier, its as if Westbrook/Donovan sat him down with footage of Roberson and told him to do all of that and he agree'd.

[Atomic Punk]

yes, and given ample time i would expect the lineup #'s to reflect that.

there's no evidence to support ferguson > roberson or even close to him. the starters w/him are performing well, yet his initial rpm is horrid-- in the bottom 30 of the nba. that's concerning. i suspect that given the same competition and teammate impact that andre roberson at 90% would have produced better results in the same lineups. is there any meaningful evidence to suggest otherwise?

Yah, i love the defense we are playing this season and Ferguson has done a great job, but if Roberson is 90-100% on his return, we become possibly one of the best defensive teams ever.

I really like what Ferguson is developing in to.
Its almost as if when Westbrook told him to delete his twitter, he also sat him down, gave him some dvd's of Roberson and told him "you need to do that" and he seems to be coming along quite nicely in terms of defensive development. That said, his goal would still be becoming Roberson. I don't think people realized it last season, but even in his limited playing time (and the previous seasons) he made a damn good case for defensive player of the year and proved he was unquestionably the best defensive 2 guard in the NBA.

All of that said, him coming back at 90-100% is very questionable.

While I am not the biggest Roberson fan, I have to agree with slick on this one. Ferguson has not shown much at all and has looked mediocre at best this season. I am not sure he has taken a step back, but he certainly hasn’t taken a step forward. It’s early, but still.

I very much have to disagree with Fergusons development here.
If you watch him he is doing a great job at staying in front of his guy, contesting shots, he's understanding switches now, he's being a great help defender, he's no longer super reckless with his arms. He has definitely taken multiple steps forward on the defensive end and as i said earlier, its as if Westbrook/Donovan sat him down with footage of Roberson and told him to do all of that and he agree'd.

I agree that he is coming along on the defensive end but he looks like he has no confidence on the offensive end. That’s what I meant by his lack of progress.

[AirInTheLoop]

I agree that he is coming along on the defensive end but he looks like he has no confidence on the offensive end. That’s what I meant by his lack of progress.

You know... there's more ways to be involved in an offense than simply shooting and again, this is an aspect of his game he has definitely improved in. His understanding of our offense and what to do on the floor is twice as good as it was last year.
He could easily be just another Roberson, but there is something to be said about an A+ defender who does not score, but completely understands an offense and his teammates. I just don't think him not developing into a scorer is a point of concern as there are so many other ways to affect the game.

[Atomic Punk]

I agree that he is coming along on the defensive end but he looks like he has no confidence on the offensive end. That’s what I meant by his lack of progress.

You know... there's more ways to be involved in an offense than simply shooting and again, this is an aspect of his game he has definitely improved in. His understanding of our offense and what to do on the floor is twice as good as it was last year.
He could easily be just another Roberson, but there is something to be said about an A+ defender who does not score, but completely understands an offense and his teammates. I just don't think him not developing into a scorer is a point of concern as there are so many other ways to affect the game.

Yes, I understand all of that. I just expected more from him as scoring option going into this season. When Roberson returns wing minutes are going to be harder to come by and I would like to see Diallo become the primary back up to him. I am not saying bump Ferguson from the rotation, not at all. TLC and Abrines should be the guys who get pushed to the end of the bench.

[ThunderBolt]

I find it odd that Westbrook carries around dvds of Roberson playing defense. I mean he could show the same videos to Ferguson using an iPod.