RealGM

Instead of doing work I've been playing around with one of my spreadsheets. We've got a decent sized sample of data now after the trade, and 13 games' worth of post Perkins data as well. Here's how we look on some things, before the trade, after the trade, and 'Post Perkins'.

ORTG: PRE-TRADE: 110.75 POST-TRADE: 110.97 POST-PERK: 111.15

DRTG: PRE-TRADE: 107.96 POST-TRADE: 104.78 POST-PERK: 101.97

eFG% (Shooting Efficiency) PRE-TRADE: 49.59% POST-TRADE: 50.29% POST-PERK: 50.00%
Opponent eFG% PRE-TRADE: 50.10% POST-TRADE: 47.92% POST-PERK: 46.1%

TOV% (Turnovers): PRE-TRADE: 12.48% POST-TRADE: 12.41% POST-PERK: 12.39%
Opponent TOV%: PRE-TRADE: 12.44% POST-TRADE: 12.28% POST PERK: 12.58%

OREB% (Offensive Rebounding): PRE-TRADE: 26.87% POST-TRADE: 27.84% POST-PERK: 28.57%
DREB% (Defensive Rebounding): PRE-TRADE: 73.74% POST-TRADE: 73.74% POST-PERK: 73.41%

FT/FGA (Foul Shooting): PRE-TRADE: .312 POST-TRADE: .265 POST-PERK: .273
Opponenet FT/FGA: PRE-TRADE: .223 POST-TRADE: .223 POST-PERK: .234

Obviously, the defense has been way better. Huge improvement in opponent shooting efficiency both when we made the trade initially, and again after Perkins started playing. It's a small sample (13 games), but 46.1% opponent eFG% would be #1 in the NBA over the course of the season. Even the post trade mark of 47.92%, which includes the short handed Orlando and Laker games, would rank sixth in the league over the course of the season. Defensive rebounding has stayed relatively the same, which is a little disappointing since we're only average there. Opponent turnovers also relatively the same, we're below league average there. So as good as the defense has been since the trade overall, there's still a lot of room for improvement.

Offensively, the big difference is the free throw shooting. Fewer opportunities and worse shooting. Shooting efficiency is slightly up and turnovers slightly down. Our starting five with Perkins has been very hit or miss offensively, having three guys on the court who are not very skilled offensively leaves a small margin of error.

If anyone's interested I also have some player splits.

Compared to last year when we were an "elite" defensive and rebounding team.

----------Last year ------- Post Perk--- Difference

DRtg: 101.6 ~~~~~~~~~ 101.97~~~~~~ +.37
ORtg: 105.8 ~~~~~~~~~ 111.15 ~~~~~ +5.35

Differ: 4.13 ~~~~~~~~~ 9.18 ~~~~~~~ +5.05

TOV%: 13.9% ~~~~~~~~ 12.39% ~~~~~ +1.51%

OREB%: 28.6% ~~~~~~~ 28.6% ~~~~~~ Same
DREB%: 73.5% ~~~~~~~ 73.41% ~~~~~ Same

So since we got perk we're a much better offensive team, a better defensive team, turn the ball over less, and rebound the same. The +9.18 differential since we got Perk is ridiculous. The best differential this year by a team is +8.3 by the Heat.

Lower is better for DRTG, so we're still not to the point we were at last season defensively. I don't think we'll ever be that kind of defense again, Ron Adams took it away. But we can probably get to that level if things go right.

It's a very small sample since Perkins got healthy and there are some easy games in there that skew it a bit. The 'truth' is probably somewhere between the post trade and post perk figures. With an offseason of work and some lineup adjustments for next season, though, this team could have top five potential in offense and defense.

Actually it looks like your numbers are wrong for DRTG and ORTG last year, where did you get those from?

Our offense was 108.3 and our defense was 104.6. I thought 101.6 looked fishy. You might have gotten those from Hoopdata which calculated those things differently...

slick_watts wrote:Actually it looks like your numbers are wrong for DRTG and ORTG last year, where did you get those from?

Our offense was 108.3 and our defense was 104.6. I thought 101.6 looked fishy. You might have gotten those from Hoopdata which calculated those things differently...

yup, Hoopdata

EDIT: I just looked at Hollinger's advanced stats from last year and he has basically the same as Hoopdata. Where do you get yours from?

Yeah Hoopdata uses a simplistic way to calculate possessions so it's not compatible with basketball-reference... Hollinger uses the same method for some reason.

Makes our defensive run look better, though. Barring injuries or other unknowable things, I'd be disappointed if we weren't at least top 5 / top 10 (offense / defense or defense / offense) next season - or better.

5th best ORTG and 3rd best DRTG Post-Perk.

Next season I could see top 5 offense and defense. But more then that, I want to see some solid execution late in games.

We commit the 4th most fouls in the NBA. We are the only team in the top 10(Fouls) that is in the playoffs. Just an interesting stat I found.

edit: Indiana is 9th and a playoff team. So 2 teams are in the playoffs that also commit a lot of fouls.

dream_catcher_9 wrote:5th best ORTG and 3rd best DRTG Post-Perk.

Next season I could see top 5 offense and defense. But more then that, I want to see some solid execution late in games.

It's definitely possible. Defense will probably be tougher to do as there are some really good defenses in the league right now.

Execution late in games might be a coaching thing. I don't know. If you're a top 5 on both you won't have to execute as well late as most games will end up in the bag.

dream_catcher_9 wrote:We commit the 4th most fouls in the NBA. We are the only team in the top 10(Fouls) that is in the playoffs. Just an interesting stat I found.

Top 10 in fouls, but 11th in opponent FTA, and we 'give up' the lowest FT% in the league. Which is weird. We have the best FT% and our opponents shoot the worst from the FT line.

I don't know where to check this, but I think being Top 10 in fouls has a lot to do with offensive fouls as well. We seem to get a lot of those.

Next season our offense will be better imo.

Harden and Ibaka are the reason.

slick_watts wrote:

dream_catcher_9 wrote:We commit the 4th most fouls in the NBA. We are the only team in the top 10(Fouls) that is in the playoffs. Just an interesting stat I found.

Top 10 in fouls, but 11th in opponent FTA, and we 'give up' the lowest FT% in the league. Which is weird. We have the best FT% and our opponents shoot the worst from the FT line.

I don't know where to check this, but I think being Top 10 in fouls has a lot to do with offensive fouls as well. We seem to get a lot of those.

My guess on the FT% thing is we foul opponents' big men much more frequently than we foul opponents' guards.