Official Playoffs Thread - First Round Date vs. Nuggets

[slick_watts]

Both these teams have played great after making deadline deals:

Denver Post Deadline:

ORTG: 112.05
DRTG: 101.01
Differential: +11.4 per 100 possessions

Thunder Post Deadline:

ORTG: 112.41
DRTG: 105.40
Differential: +7.01 per 100 possessions

Of course, the Thunder got the services of Kendrick Perkins later on, and this is how they've looked since Perkins started playing:

ORTG: 113.33
DRTG: 103.43
Differential: +9.90 per 100 possessions

Our offense is a little inflated and defense a bit deflated in that span due to relative strength of schedule, but the point is clear. Both teams have been dominant post trade - performing like title contenders since making their deals. Denver has had to deal with injuries, and the Thunder didn't get Perkins for a couple weeks. All and all, you've got to say the two teams have performed similarly

There are a few factors, though, that give the Thunder some advantage in my opinion:

- Home court advantage in a hostile road environment

Some of the Denver players have little playoff experience, and players that do (like Nene) are not great playoff performers historically. The onus is on Denver to win a road playoff game in an environment that the Lakers could only barely squeeze out a win last season. Will they have what it takes?

- Two confidence building regular season wins

Denver was beat up and may have been sand bagging it, but there's no question the two victories over Denver has given the Thunder confidence heading into this series - not to mention very valuable scouting information and experience handling Denver's new offensive and defensive gameplans.

- Relative health compared to Denver's litany of injuries

Nene (groin), Lawson (ankle), Gallinari (ankle), Mozgov (knee, ankle), Afflalo (hamstring) all have been battling injuries. Chris Andersen only recently returned to action. The Thunder, on the other hand, have nothing on their injury report. Denver will need their players at or close to 100% if they're going to take this series.

- Specific Matchups

Sebastian Pruiti went in depth with some matchup analysis. You can view his thoughts on the offense and defense of both teams here: http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/04/15/round ... %93-recap/

Suffice to say, the only real weakness the Thunder will experience against the Nuggets in my opinion is the Denver shooters getting open three point looks off of Thunder help on high screens. Pruiti specifically names Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha as two players who often offer help on the screener when it is not always needed. This leads to open three pointers for the opponent. Denver is a very good three point shooting team, and they are excellent at reversing the ball to the open shooter if there's a good close by a defender. In the last regular season meeting, Denver was 5 for 18 from 3PT range - many of those misses wide open off of help. It was great to see the Thunder defeat Denver on the road despite Denver shooting a high 3PT%, but this will be a story all series to watch.

Otherwise, the matchups seem to be in the Thunder's favor. Perkins can largely defend Nene one on one, cutting off one method the Nuggets like to use to get open perimeter shots. Westbrook will hopefully have the inclination (he has the ability) to keep Lawson and Felton in front of him on defense. With Afflalo nursing an injury, it still remains to be seen if the Nuggets can defend Kevin Durant adequately without trapping him, and James Harden (as mentioned by Pruiti) should have little trouble working against JR Smith.

I'm calling Thunder in six on the series.

[dream_catcher_9]

anyone know if we are going to have the white out/blue out? Was awesome last year.

[Webbula]

Well, here she blows:
Central times shown.

GAME 1: vs. Denver, Sunday, April 17, 8:30PM ON TNT
GAME 2: vs, Denver, Wednesday, April 20, 7PM on TNT
GAME 3: At Denver, Saturday, April 23, 9PM on ESPN
GAME 4: At Denver, Monday, April 25, 9:30PM on TNT
GAME 5: vs, Denver, Wednesday, Apr 27 TBA (If necessary)
GAME 6: at Denver, Friday, April 29, TBA (If necessary)
GAME 7: vs Denver, Sunday, May 1, TBA (If necessary)

[dopeismarcus]

THUNDERUP IN 5

[fallacy]

I've got Thunder in 6

[Denver714]

If our entire roster is healthy, nuggets win in six

[fallacy]

If our entire roster is healthy, nuggets win in six

I see what you did there.

[HeartSouloma]

If our entire roster is healthy, thunders win in six

FIXED

EDIT- Can't wait! Time to eat some nuggets...

[Mr Burns]

A lot of people are saying this series could go either way, but I seriously don't see it. The thunder will spank the Nuggets and its not even close. People are going to be shocked at how easy this series will be for you guys. Thunder in 5.

Good luck in the playoffs guys

[Hobes]

THUNDER in 6 - I have a feeling we'll drop at least 2 games in the first round due to coming out "slow". We have a tendency to play average when we feel we can win the game.

[Webbula]

THUNDER in 6 - I have a feeling we'll drop at least 2 games in the first round due to coming out "slow". We have a tendency to play average when we feel we can win the game.

Agree with that. However, my hope is that this is a big area where Perkins' playoff experience will pay off. Hopefully he knows how to keep everyone on edge, regardless of the opponent.

And hopefully the guys turn off ESPN and don't read the local papers for a few days. When everyone and their dog picks you to win, I think you have to be careful about falling into the trap that all you have to do is show up to the games and win.

[CKRT]

anyone know if we are going to have the white out/blue out? Was awesome last year.

Anyone know?

[slick_watts]

I edited the OP with some things. Looking forward to Sunday!

[dream_catcher_9]

I edited the OP with some things. Looking forward to Sunday!

I agree with Thunder in 6. I think we are just a better team, but with our youth it will go a little longer then normal, we will drop a game we should have won, which is why we wont win in 5.

[fallacy]

anyone know if we are going to have the white out/blue out? Was awesome last year.

Anyone know?

Season ticket holders got an email saying:

Wear your THUNDER BLUE to every home game!

- Get to your seats early, at least 30 minutes before tipoff. Our electric pre-game atmosphere is second to none and has earned Thunder fans significant national recognition for our intensity, community pride and team support.




So it doesn't look like they're giving away shirts for the first round this year. It kind of makes sense because we're expected to go further than the first round this year. If each shirt costs 5 bucks for them to make, they're spending 90,000 dollars a game just on shirts. Maybe they'll wait til round 2 or 3

[el loco]

If our entire roster is healthy, thunders win in six

FIXED

EDIT- Can't wait! Time to eat some nuggets...

I guess nose nuggets count

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlHSFSDZjwc[/youtube]

[LCMJ]

good luck thunder fans. im a bulls fan and expect to see you in the finals against us

[Mr Burns]

That video is so fail, he doesn't even pick his nose. Its clear that he was only biting his nail.

[dopeismarcus]

[Rhinou]

PLAYOFF TIME IN OKLAHOMA!!!!!!!!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWPj_Pvr6nY&feature=player_embedded[/youtube]