Official Playoffs Thread - First Round Date vs. Nuggets
Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 2:47 am
Both these teams have played great after making deadline deals:
Denver Post Deadline:
ORTG: 112.05
DRTG: 101.01
Differential: +11.4 per 100 possessions
Thunder Post Deadline:
ORTG: 112.41
DRTG: 105.40
Differential: +7.01 per 100 possessions
Of course, the Thunder got the services of Kendrick Perkins later on, and this is how they've looked since Perkins started playing:
ORTG: 113.33
DRTG: 103.43
Differential: +9.90 per 100 possessions
Our offense is a little inflated and defense a bit deflated in that span due to relative strength of schedule, but the point is clear. Both teams have been dominant post trade - performing like title contenders since making their deals. Denver has had to deal with injuries, and the Thunder didn't get Perkins for a couple weeks. All and all, you've got to say the two teams have performed similarly
There are a few factors, though, that give the Thunder some advantage in my opinion:
- Home court advantage in a hostile road environment
Some of the Denver players have little playoff experience, and players that do (like Nene) are not great playoff performers historically. The onus is on Denver to win a road playoff game in an environment that the Lakers could only barely squeeze out a win last season. Will they have what it takes?
- Two confidence building regular season wins
Denver was beat up and may have been sand bagging it, but there's no question the two victories over Denver has given the Thunder confidence heading into this series - not to mention very valuable scouting information and experience handling Denver's new offensive and defensive gameplans.
- Relative health compared to Denver's litany of injuries
Nene (groin), Lawson (ankle), Gallinari (ankle), Mozgov (knee, ankle), Afflalo (hamstring) all have been battling injuries. Chris Andersen only recently returned to action. The Thunder, on the other hand, have nothing on their injury report. Denver will need their players at or close to 100% if they're going to take this series.
- Specific Matchups
Sebastian Pruiti went in depth with some matchup analysis. You can view his thoughts on the offense and defense of both teams here: http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/04/15/round ... %93-recap/
Suffice to say, the only real weakness the Thunder will experience against the Nuggets in my opinion is the Denver shooters getting open three point looks off of Thunder help on high screens. Pruiti specifically names Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha as two players who often offer help on the screener when it is not always needed. This leads to open three pointers for the opponent. Denver is a very good three point shooting team, and they are excellent at reversing the ball to the open shooter if there's a good close by a defender. In the last regular season meeting, Denver was 5 for 18 from 3PT range - many of those misses wide open off of help. It was great to see the Thunder defeat Denver on the road despite Denver shooting a high 3PT%, but this will be a story all series to watch.
Otherwise, the matchups seem to be in the Thunder's favor. Perkins can largely defend Nene one on one, cutting off one method the Nuggets like to use to get open perimeter shots. Westbrook will hopefully have the inclination (he has the ability) to keep Lawson and Felton in front of him on defense. With Afflalo nursing an injury, it still remains to be seen if the Nuggets can defend Kevin Durant adequately without trapping him, and James Harden (as mentioned by Pruiti) should have little trouble working against JR Smith.
I'm calling Thunder in six on the series.
Denver Post Deadline:
ORTG: 112.05
DRTG: 101.01
Differential: +11.4 per 100 possessions
Thunder Post Deadline:
ORTG: 112.41
DRTG: 105.40
Differential: +7.01 per 100 possessions
Of course, the Thunder got the services of Kendrick Perkins later on, and this is how they've looked since Perkins started playing:
ORTG: 113.33
DRTG: 103.43
Differential: +9.90 per 100 possessions
Our offense is a little inflated and defense a bit deflated in that span due to relative strength of schedule, but the point is clear. Both teams have been dominant post trade - performing like title contenders since making their deals. Denver has had to deal with injuries, and the Thunder didn't get Perkins for a couple weeks. All and all, you've got to say the two teams have performed similarly
There are a few factors, though, that give the Thunder some advantage in my opinion:
- Home court advantage in a hostile road environment
Some of the Denver players have little playoff experience, and players that do (like Nene) are not great playoff performers historically. The onus is on Denver to win a road playoff game in an environment that the Lakers could only barely squeeze out a win last season. Will they have what it takes?
- Two confidence building regular season wins
Denver was beat up and may have been sand bagging it, but there's no question the two victories over Denver has given the Thunder confidence heading into this series - not to mention very valuable scouting information and experience handling Denver's new offensive and defensive gameplans.
- Relative health compared to Denver's litany of injuries
Nene (groin), Lawson (ankle), Gallinari (ankle), Mozgov (knee, ankle), Afflalo (hamstring) all have been battling injuries. Chris Andersen only recently returned to action. The Thunder, on the other hand, have nothing on their injury report. Denver will need their players at or close to 100% if they're going to take this series.
- Specific Matchups
Sebastian Pruiti went in depth with some matchup analysis. You can view his thoughts on the offense and defense of both teams here: http://nbaplaybook.com/2011/04/15/round ... %93-recap/
Suffice to say, the only real weakness the Thunder will experience against the Nuggets in my opinion is the Denver shooters getting open three point looks off of Thunder help on high screens. Pruiti specifically names Russell Westbrook and Thabo Sefolosha as two players who often offer help on the screener when it is not always needed. This leads to open three pointers for the opponent. Denver is a very good three point shooting team, and they are excellent at reversing the ball to the open shooter if there's a good close by a defender. In the last regular season meeting, Denver was 5 for 18 from 3PT range - many of those misses wide open off of help. It was great to see the Thunder defeat Denver on the road despite Denver shooting a high 3PT%, but this will be a story all series to watch.
Otherwise, the matchups seem to be in the Thunder's favor. Perkins can largely defend Nene one on one, cutting off one method the Nuggets like to use to get open perimeter shots. Westbrook will hopefully have the inclination (he has the ability) to keep Lawson and Felton in front of him on defense. With Afflalo nursing an injury, it still remains to be seen if the Nuggets can defend Kevin Durant adequately without trapping him, and James Harden (as mentioned by Pruiti) should have little trouble working against JR Smith.
I'm calling Thunder in six on the series.