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Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 11:43 am
by Clangus
Please read this thread from the Statistical Analysis Board.
viewtopic.php?f=344&t=1135212&p=29080195#p29080195It brings up some amazing points about Nick Collison and asks the question in my mind (as one of the other posters int hte thread said) Is Nick Collison the NO Stats MVP?
Take a look and deceide for yourself. Its well worth the read.
a few interesting excerpts
Los Soles wrote:2) I'm 100% sure that no one thinks Collison is very athletic. But according to draftexpress numbers, his athleticism is better than average for a power forward pretty much across the board, and much better than average for a center (and he has the size to play either position). I don't know if anyone puts any stock in these numbers, but his time in the agility test is better than Derrick Rose's and Tyreke Evans', his sprint time is better than Rudy Gay's and Joe Johnson's, and his max vert reach is better than Blake Griffin's.
Los Soles wrote:Anyone have any insight into Collison??
I've been looking over the numbers at basketballvalue.com, and I'm just not seeing anything sketchy in the unit numbers or anything. It's a simple as: The Thunder are very, very good when Collison is in the lineup . . . and somewhere between mediocre and awful when he's on the bench.
Raw ratings (since some people are uncomfortable with the "adjusted" part of APM)
-The simple overall rating while he's on the court has been in double digits for the last two years:
+10.34 (2009-2010)
+14.56 (2010 playoffs)
+11.13 (2010-2011)
+10.64 (2011 playoffs)
Each of those values is among the best in the the league, and #1 in the 2010 playoffs. If we were to just add those four values up and compare with other top players: he's first by a LONG way.
-His simple net rating (the difference between the rating when he's on and when he's off) is absurd:
+9.45 (2009-2010)
+29.39 (2010 playoffs)
+11.05 (2010-2011)
+17.09 (2011 playoffs)
Unit analysis
-His units were successful with or without Westbrook, with or without Harden, and with or without Durant.
-His units were successful when the other big was: Perkins, Ibaka, Green, Krstic, Etan, Nazr, White, or Durant.
-ALL 12 OKC units from both the 2010 and 2011 playoffs that have a positive APM have Collison in the lineup (minimum 10 minutes).
-The top 6 APM units from the 2009-2010 season have Collison.
-11 of the top 14 APM units from the 2010-2011 season have Collison.
-2010-2011 12 of the 14 units that he was on that registered an APM score were positive.
-2009-2010 9 of the 12 units that he was on that registered an APM score were positive.
Is there something I'm missing in all this?
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Wed Nov 2, 2011 7:47 pm
by BIG EDDIE
Im a huge fan of all the Nick Collisons, who ever played this game.
Nick "Metal Knee" Collison is a very hard-working, very smart and very skilled player, who knows how to use his skills.
He is certainly the heart and soul (or one of them) of the Thunder.
I wish he retires as a Thunder.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Sat Nov 5, 2011 1:28 pm
by Canomad
hes what haslem is to the heat for the thunder IMO. glue guy, fan favorite, and not afraid to get his hands dirty in the paint and can hit the 12 to 15 footer.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Sat Nov 5, 2011 4:59 pm
by slick_watts
He's definitely a great role player. I wouldn't put much stock into the draft express stuff, since Nick is no longer in his athletic prime and has lost a step or two. But he's usually doing positive things on the court, and units featuring him tend to be successful because he fills a lot of holes.
I think his actual value is somewhere in between his productivity and his unit impact.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Sun Nov 6, 2011 8:58 pm
by jambalaya
I just saw this thread and the thread linked to and commented more extensively over at the other thread. The basic point I made with regard to Collison is that he only has 2 great RAPM seasons so far and that I'd prefer to have 3 or more seasons before calling a guy a proven RAPM superstar. Nick will probably do it again but I am not sure how many more such seasons he has left in him. It may come down to how much of his value is intelligence based vs based on his athleticism and how much that athleticism changes from here and how fast. Obviously having enough of both could yield larger returns than if one slips below a desirable threshold.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Tue Nov 8, 2011 3:48 pm
by Wannabe MEP
I thought y'all might be interested in this from the other thread.
Los Soles wrote:Playoff raw +/-
. . . . . . . . . w/ Collison . . . without
Harden: . . . . . +81 . . . . . -1
Westbrook: . . . +64 . . . . -35
Durant: . . . . . +60 . . . . . -9
Nazr . . . . . . . +24 . . . . . -2
Cook . . . . . . . +27 . . . . . -8
Maynor . . . . . +3 . . . . . -12
Ibaka . . . . . . +10 . . . . . -35
Perkins . . . . . +43 . . . . . -77
Sefolosha . . . . +4 . . . . . -54
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Wed Nov 9, 2011 1:34 am
by Clangus
Los Soles wrote:I thought y'all might be interested in this from the other thread.
Los Soles wrote:Playoff raw +/-
. . . . . . . . . w/ Collison . . . without
Harden: . . . . . +81 . . . . . -1
Westbrook: . . . +64 . . . . -35
Durant: . . . . . +60 . . . . . -9
Nazr . . . . . . . +24 . . . . . -2
Cook . . . . . . . +27 . . . . . -8
Maynor . . . . . +3 . . . . . -12
Ibaka . . . . . . +10 . . . . . -35
Perkins . . . . . +43 . . . . . -77
Sefolosha . . . . +4 . . . . . -54
Mind = blown
Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:37 am
by wizkid27
Man... It's been a long time since I've been on these boards due to stuff. Hopefully I'll be back by pretty consistently this season
Collison is significantly underrated by the everyday fan, but I think most Thunder fans understand his value. He (to me) isn't a +/- wonder, where what you see just doesn't seem to justify the random stat. Watching Nick play you can tell he's not really limited in any significant way, plays well with players of almost any skillset, and does several rare things very well.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 1:55 am
by wiff
Hey it's nice seeing you back around Wizkid.
It has been a long time. I have since been partially banned for calling T-Wolves fans "moronic". Anyway it's nice having you back around man.
Re: Thunder MVP = Nick Collison?
Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2011 7:41 pm
by wizkid27
wiff wrote:Hey it's nice seeing you back around Wizkid.
It has been a long time. I have since been partially banned for calling T-Wolves fans "moronic". Anyway it's nice having you back around man.
Hard to imagine you stirring up any kind of trouble wiff...
I guess at least the Wolves didn't get contracted.