I'll be honest the Spurs scare me.

[wiff]

I called the Dallas series at 5 games and I was wrong, the Thunder wrapped it up in 4. I called the Laker series to go 5, and I was right.

But this Spurs series is going to be a battle. And they scare the crap out of me.

They have won 18 in a row. They have had OKC's number even before they were in OKC. They are so well coached, and they are just playing flawless basketball right now.

Now that said the Spurs have had the easiest path to the WCF. The played the Jazz who squeaked into the playoffs and the Clippers who are fun as hell to watch, but they have very limited playoff experience. Think the Thunder two years ago against the Lakers.

The Thunder have been taking the steps maturing individually and as a team. The kids keep getting better. They lost to the Lakers two years ago and have now made it to back to back WCF. Baby steps.

But my biggest concern here is that the Spurs have home court advantage. That is huge. It's so hard to win on the road.

If the Thunder had HCA I wouldn't be as worried about this series.

So my prediction..........Thunder in 6

If this series goes 7 games the Spurs win.

[fallacy]

Spurs in 7

[Durant 35]

Thunder in 6

Will be damn tough though

[Devilanche]

Thunder in 6 if we're up for it, though Spurs will probably had us finished before then.

Either we step up and win them in 6 or our boys/coach goes away from the game learning something about offence/spacing/fundamentals etc etc.

[Devilanche]

Now that said the Spurs have had the easiest path to the WCF. They played the Jazz who squeaked into the playoffs and the Clippers who are fun as hell to watch, but they have very limited playoff experience. Think the Thunder two years ago against the Lakers.

I dont think they had the easiest path, it's more of them making it look easy. Out of those 2 teams, one of them should have been able to at least 1 of the 8 games... Even if you were to discount their playoff streak, they had a nice record after the all star break.

[wiff]

You really think two teams with practically zero playoff experience played tougher than the last NBA champs of the last 3 seasons?

The Jazz and Clippers were a tougher out than the Mavs and Lakers???? Really?

[bbms]

Spurs are favorites.

[Durant 35]

Spurs are favorites.

Maybe so but that doesn't mean much

[bbms]

Spurs are favorites.

Maybe so but that doesn't mean much

Yeah it means. They're playing a flawless basketball out there and have a lot of matchups that favours them. Thunder big guys must be huge because our defense will look ugly in this series.

[sonictecture]

I think the Spurs are a team/organization that should have everyone's respect, but I don't understand where fear would enter the equation.

If I was a Spurs fan I might be scared of the Thunder and here is why:

The Thunder core is more explosive: For two straight series the speed and explosiveness of the Thunder has beat older more experienced teams. The athletic explosion of the Thunder actually wore down the bigger more experienced teams of Dallas and the Lakers as those respective series went on. The Spurs showed some vulnerability against Devin Harris and Eric Bledsoe in their first two series and once Blake Griffin started to get healthy in game 4 he was able to have success.

The Thunder core is younger: In years past this would have been a negative, but the Thunder have shown the mental and psychological maturity to beat championship experienced teams. The youth of the Thunder should mean that the best players for the Thunder play more minutes than the best players for the Spurs. This could be a tipping point advantage for the Thunder, but if Poppovich plays Duncan and Ginobili more minutes to counter, then perhaps they both start to wear down if the Thunder can extend the series.

Scott Brooks might not be as overmatched as hoped. Brooks has shown the ability to get his team prepared. He and his staff have diagnosed strategies to defend Nowitzki and Terry and Bynum and Gasol with great success. Brooks has dealt with long layoffs and back to back games with success. Brooks has made good adjustments and sought to be proactive in getting advantages with minutes played and rotations. Poppovich is a great coach and knows his team, but he isn't a miracle worker, he doesn't have the personnel to shut down the Thunder defensively and his team hasn't faced a defensive team as good as the Thunder yet.

Home court advantage is only advantage if you don't lose on your home court. If the Thunder can take one of the first two games then the Spurs have to play from behind. The Spurs rely on some inexperienced players in Green and Leonard and if they start to struggle the Thunder's chances improve.

The Thunder are better than last year when they were out executed by Dallas. The Thunder lost in 5 last year to Dallas, but had leads in games that they let get away. The Thunder have improved in both their in game and end of game execution.

The Thunder can win this series, it's just a matter of will they.

[fallacy]

Random stat of the day:


OKC's record with Jeff Green: 129-173 (42%), Playoffs: 2-4 (33%)


OKC's record with Perk: 66-26 (72%), Playoffs: 17-9 (65%)

[Devilanche]

You really think two teams with practically zero playoff experience played tougher than the last NBA champs of the last 3 seasons?

The Jazz and Clippers were a tougher out than the Mavs and Lakers???? Really?

The Mavs arent exactly last year version. The lakers were tough though. Not saying they were tougher but the Spurs were just that good.

edit: Kinda random but i find this a good read.
http://www.hickory-high.com/?p=4403

[wizkid27]

Random stat of the day:


OKC's record with Jeff Green: 129-173 (42%), Playoffs: 2-4 (33%)


OKC's record with Perk: 66-26 (72%), Playoffs: 17-9 (65%)

I think that is more correlation than causation... For example, I thought Perk was pretty awful last season with his injuries. He's definitely been an asset, but I think it has more to do with Serge, KD, RW, and Harden improving followed by allowing Serge and Harden more minutes. Only after those reasons do I think it starts to turn into a discussion about actually which player is better or has a bigger impact on the win/loss column. Perk has been off and on pretty huge for us this season, but especially last season, it seemed to be more about freeing up the minutes/rotation without Green than about bringing in Perkins.

[wizkid27]

As far as who will win this series, I'm going with OKC in 7 (LWWLWLW if you're interested in more detail...). Biggest factors to me are:

1) I think we have the 3 most talented players in the series on our team
2) Brooks is awful at intra-game/series adjustments. He does well enough at getting the team prepared for the series, but I feel like it kind of goes on autopilot from there
3) I think that Westbrook, Thabo, and Perk will step up and be able to defend the Spurs big 3 very well (even if this hasn't always happened in the past).

I'm really hoping that when Bonner goes in Brooks makes an adjustment to put our worst defender in the game on him, instead of creating the weird situation for Serge where he either gives up 3s or doesn't defend the basket... we can't afford either.

[wiff]

Just an interesting detail. Home team wins game 7 80% of the time. So he is my recipe for OKC winning this series in 6.

Honestly this whole series comes down to game 1.

Thunder NEED to win game 1 period. They lose game one this series is over.

Thunder need to win game one because no way are they going to beat the Spurs three games in a row even with ames two and three being played on their home court. and like I said above I don't expect the Thunder to win a game 7 on the road so they have to close this game out in 6.

Win in San
Lose in San
Win in OKC
Win in OKC
Lose in San
Win in OKC.

This whole series hinges on game one. My 2 cents.

I think the Spurs are a team/organization that should have everyone's respect, but I don't understand where fear would enter the equation.

Are you really that big of a tool? It's part hyperbole. I don't literally fear the Spurs, nor do they haunt my dreams but this series isn't going to be easy. Sure the Thunder have some advantages but have the Thunder ever won 18 in a row? Plus the Spurs have had the Thunders number for years now. I think OKC has a legit shot at winning this thing but they are going to have to play at their best, and not make many mistakes and with a young team that's not an easy task.

[slick_watts]

It'll be tough. I think the Spurs can very easily lull the Thunder into playing their game. Spurs want to run the score up and don't play the best defense out there anymore. If we get into a shooting contest with them we probably lose.

The big advantage for us is that we can play a little smaller against the Spurs for stretches without sacrificing so much on defense.

[sonictecture]

Are you saying that if OKC allows it to become an strictly offensive battle the Spurs are likely to win because they have more shooters? The Spurs will lull the Thunder into thinking they're doing well and out execute them in the second half of games?

Things can change greatly from series to series but the Thunder seem so engaged and focused I don't see them letting up defensively. Granted the Spurs are hard to defend because of their offensive movement, penetrations and three point shooting. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili all present challenges and the support players are playing well.

I noticed Duncan's number against the Thunder in the regular season were horrible. While this gives some hope for a defensive strategy, I'll assume it was before Duncan got going and while Ginobili was out. Does anyone remember whether Brooks single or double covered Duncan?

My instinct is to put the Nowitzki defense on Duncan. Attempt to cover him with single coverage most the game, with selective double teams. Stay home on the shooters as much as possible. It sounds weird but make Duncan beat you while you have a hand in his face.

Against Parker I would try a little bit of everything. Use Sefolosha on him in the first to try an avoid foul trouble for Westbrook. Challenge Westbrook to show that UCLA defense against Parker in the fourth period. If Parker starts running things unabated, then I would consider trapping him and make someone else initiate the offense. I would even try a zone if necessary to keep Ibaka in the paint and Parker and Ginobili out of it. If Sefolosha can stay out of foul trouble and handle the load I would increase his minutes and play him in place of Cook at times to put him on Ginobili as well and let Harden have some moments to concentrate offensively. Cook would only see minutes if the Thunder are ahead in the game.

Against Ginobili you try and use Sefolosha, Durant when available Harden and Westbrook. Throw a lot of defenders at him, don't let him get too comfortable. He hasn't really found a rhythm in the playoffs, attempt to keep it that way.

Make Diaw prove he can hit the outside shot, face guard him at the high post to prevent him picking the defense apart with his passes.

Make sure someone puts a body on Leonard to limit his offensive board opportunities.

[CKRT]

The real test for Brooks begins when we have a high turnover game. I want to see what adjustments he makes for us on the line ups and offense because we really can't afford to turn the ball over against the Spurs.


Speaking of turnovers, Westbrook has been PHENOMENAL in the playoffs. He's cut his TOs down and it's very noticeable. I think he's the real reason we are 9-1 even with Durant and Harden playing awesome.

[sonictecture]

If the Thunder turn the ball over it's typically done by Westbrook, Durant and Harden. There aren't really any line up changes to make, but we've already seen some adjustments that have worked.

Brooks has encouraged Westbrook and Durant to start the game out by establishing their mid range games rather than penetration. This is done either in the pick and roll or isolation. This has reduced greatly the number of turnovers by both. Instead of forcing action and relying on the refs in certain instances we see them finding open spaces rising quickly and shooting high percentage shots. If they go in the Thunder look unbeatable and if they don't they look to become facilitators or penetration without every defender keyed in on it, but typically stay in the game rather than being down double digits to end the first.

If Westbrook gets sloppy you can have Harden or Durant bring the ball up in certain instances, both are capable of setting up the offense at this point and Westbrook is capable off the ball.

I'm more worried about strategy and adjustments guarding Duncan when he's moving to the hoop, trying to stop Parker and Ginobili on penetration and closing out on the three point shooters.

[BIG EDDIE]

Game 1 is key for us.

Out of the last 18 times, where the team WITHOUT home-court-advantage has advanced from the Conf. Finals to the Finals, 13 times has that team won Game 1!!