CBB_Fan wrote:Let me make this real simple for you. With Harden, the Thunder have chance for a championship last year. Without him they are worse than they were a season before, when they lost badly in the Finals to the Heat. And the Thunder regressed again in terms of the competition, meaning they have a small chance to win a title this year.
Yet no numbers support this wildly popular belief.
In the West, you can make a good case that at least Houston is better team from a talent standpoint. And the Spurs, Clippers, Grizzlies, and Warriors are all capable of beating of the Thunder in a 7 game series. And in the East, you have the Heat which have gotten better since they beat the Thunder in the Final and both the Nets and Bulls.
So by the simple addition of Howard (who I admit is very, very good) and OKC losing Martin, Houston is now better and more talented? That addition of Howard and subtraction of Martin makes up the 15 games that separated them last year in the standings?
At BEST, the Thunder have a 1/6 chance of winning a title. In reality, I think that the difficulty of reaching the Final may make even optimistic. And how are the Thunder going to manage the Heat, which have only added more pieces while the Thunder have gotten worse these last two years?
Why do people constantly say this and believe this? First off, the Heat in the playoffs last year were worse than they were in the playoffs in 2012. Wade, who's already having durability issues and showing signs of slowing down, will turn 32 next season. Allen will be a year older. Bosh's role has been diminished every season he's been there. I'm not sure the Heat are better, anymore, than they were in 2012; it greatly hinges on Wade's health. They aren't going to have Mike Miller and Shane Battier to bail them out with random 5/8 or 6/10 3P games in the playoffs anymore, either.
And when you, and others, say the Thunder have gotten worse since 2012, you're completely ignoring all logic and the history of how players progress. Durant and Westbrook were 23 years old in 2012 and Ibaka was 22. Players, especially the very talented "gym rat" types like KD, Russ, and Serge, generally improve until their mid to late 20's. A big reason why OKC, according to almost every single statistic, improved in 2013 despite losing Harden was because of the continual development and improvement of Durant, Russ, and Serge. For whatever reason, people on RealGM just keep glossing over the very real possibility that those three players will just continue to get better over the next 3-5 seasons. All three were better in 2013 than they were in 2012 and, due to their age, there's a pretty damn good chance they'll be better in 2014 than they were in 2012.
Trading Harden created OKC's biggest roadblock to the Finals, and could be the reason OKC doesn't win a title with Durant. There is a reason why the trade is UNIVERSALLY acclaimed as a horrible move by all but the biggest of homers, and it is because all the excuses in the world cannot explain away trading away a chance for titles.
I agree, the trade sucked. But the people that are relentlessly bashing it and killing OKC's FO aren't looking at the other side of the coin. The OKC fans who Chalky calls "sheeple" also understand the financial ramifications of having $60M/year tied up in 4 players, and understand Harden was going to continue being a 16-4-4 type player, which isn't worth $13M-$15M/yr. He had an offer on the table of 4yrs/$55M and turned it down.
It may sound ignorant, and like we're trying to make ourselves feel better, but there is some credibility, from a basketball personnel standpoint, that having 75%-80% of the salary cap tied up in three ball-dominant perimeter players, and a very weak frontcourt makes little to no sense.
For whatever reason you, many posters here and other places, the media, etc. gloss over those facts, because it's easier to just use hindsight, look at what Harden did this past season in Houston, and assume OKC traded away that exact player; like they traded away a player that would've given them similar production and not have been limited in a 6th Man/3rd option role. If some of you could just open your minds a little bit, see both sides of the argument, it'd be a lot easier for us OKC "sheeple" to admit losing Harden sucks.
And on and on. And let's not even go into the worst-case scenario. If Durant leaves the Thunder for a better shot at the ring, the entire OKC front office should be fired and the Harden trade will be THE reason. You cannot excuse that away for "flexibility" (which has proved worthless), or finances, or the slender possibility Lamb becomes half the player Harden is.
Did you not see the recent Tweets by Durant in his back-and-forth with Chris Palmer? He understands what happened with Harden. He knows it wasn't going to work financially. Didn't seem too upset or worked up about it to me. And he, unlike us, probably actually knows what went down in the negotiations, and understands the direction the franchise is moving in since trading Harden.
Durant very well may leave in three years when his contract is up; but, for now, you and everyone else on here that is blindly and relentlessly killing the OKC FO, without knowing or understanding all the facts, need to calm the bleep down and let things play out. We have no idea how good of players Reggie, Lamb, Adams will be. And, believe it or not, Presti has said they are willing to pay the luxury tax for the right player(s). The reason they're trying so hard to avoid it right now is because it's going to be unavoidable going forward, and the repeat offender penalties under the new CBA are very harsh. He's not being cheap, he's being patient, waiting to see what he's got in Reggie, Lamb, Adams, Perry Jones, and Roberson.