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#5 - Oklahoma City Thunder

PG - Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson
SG - Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb
SF - Kevin Durant, Perry Jones
PF - Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison
C - Kendrick Perkins, Hasheem Thabeet
D - Ryan Gomes, Steven Adams, Derek Fisher, Daniel Orton

OKC won 60 games last season. This year I have them down a bit to 57. A little bit of this is uncertainly about Westbrook's knee. A little is concern about the loss of Kevin Martin. But, mostly it's about the strength of the West this year. 9 of the last 10 teams I have reviewed have been in the West. Other than Phoenix, Utah, and Sacramento I think every team in the West is thinking playoffs this year. And I think each of those teams has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. That's 12 teams I think are playoff quality in the West. The next 4 teams I list will be predicted to have a better record than OKC, but, it's not that I necessarily believe that those EC teams are better, just that they'll win more games due to an easier schedule.

I would put OKC as the odds on favorite to come out of the West. I think if they have reasonable health they've all ready got all the pieces they need on the roster to come out of the West. It's going to be a bloodbath, but, you've got to pick a front runner, and for my money you gotta go with OKC.

I think the interesting thing to watch on the Thunder this year will be to see who steps up on the bench. They've got a lot of guys who have the potential to be key cogs with a larger role this year. Reggie Jackson looks poised to be the 6th man of the team, picking up some of the scoring lost with Kevin Martin's departure. But, what will happen with Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, and Steven Jackson? Those 3 are all unknowns for the most part. It'll be fun to see if any or all of them step up their game and become important cogs. And if not the young guys, how will the new bench vets like Derek Fisher and Ryan Gomes contribute?

I think it's easy to see a lot of upside there, I just don't know which one of those guys is going to take the bull by the horns and force the coach to put them on the floor. It might change from week to week, month to month. With the core of Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka and all the other weapons the Thunder have surrounded them with I dont' think there is much stopping OKC from at least the WCF and likely the finals this season. It's their year if they can stay healthy in my not so humble opinion.

Projected record: 57/25

jazzfan1971 wrote:#5 - Oklahoma City Thunder

PG - Russell Westbrook, Reggie Jackson
SG - Thabo Sefolosha, Jeremy Lamb
SF - Kevin Durant, Perry Jones
PF - Serge Ibaka, Nick Collison
C - Kendrick Perkins, Hasheem Thabeet
D - Ryan Gomes, Steven Adams, Derek Fisher, Daniel Orton

OKC won 60 games last season. This year I have them down a bit to 57. A little bit of this is uncertainly about Westbrook's knee. A little is concern about the loss of Kevin Martin. But, mostly it's about the strength of the West this year. 9 of the last 10 teams I have reviewed have been in the West. Other than Phoenix, Utah, and Sacramento I think every team in the West is thinking playoffs this year. And I think each of those teams has a reasonable shot at making the playoffs. That's 12 teams I think are playoff quality in the West. The next 4 teams I list will be predicted to have a better record than OKC, but, it's not that I necessarily believe that those EC teams are better, just that they'll win more games due to an easier schedule.

I would put OKC as the odds on favorite to come out of the West. I think if they have reasonable health they've all ready got all the pieces they need on the roster to come out of the West. It's going to be a bloodbath, but, you've got to pick a front runner, and for my money you gotta go with OKC.

I think the interesting thing to watch on the Thunder this year will be to see who steps up on the bench. They've got a lot of guys who have the potential to be key cogs with a larger role this year. Reggie Jackson looks poised to be the 6th man of the team, picking up some of the scoring lost with Kevin Martin's departure. But, what will happen with Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones, and Steven Jackson? Those 3 are all unknowns for the most part. It'll be fun to see if any or all of them step up their game and become important cogs. And if not the young guys, how will the new bench vets like Derek Fisher and Ryan Gomes contribute?

I think it's easy to see a lot of upside there, I just don't know which one of those guys is going to take the bull by the horns and force the coach to put them on the floor. It might change from week to week, month to month. With the core of Westbrook, Durant, and Ibaka and all the other weapons the Thunder have surrounded them with I dont' think there is much stopping OKC from at least the WCF and likely the finals this season. It's their year if they can stay healthy in my not so humble opinion.

Projected record: 57/25

I respect your ambition with this exercise.

I agree with the main ideas of your critique of the team, I think this team is a contender for the championship. While I love the details of how a team gets there, they don't really matter too much in a projection like this. I'm excited about the unknowns of the upcoming season.

A couple of corrections from your post: In paragraph 3 you use Steven Jackson and I think you mean Steven Adams.
Andre Roberson and D'Andre Liggins are also on the roster at this point.

I don't really disagree with the record projection and what you say about the team. However, I don't think we're the 5th best team in the league. I'd still put us in the top 3, because I don't think all 4 teams from the East that you've ranked so far (Heat, Bulls, Pacers, Nets) are better than OKC.

I think there's a lot to be said about continuity that gets overlooked by 90% of fans, and there's going to be quite a few new pieces to integrate in Brooklyn and Indiana. And even if there wasn't, I still think OKC's star power would win out over either of those teams in a 7-game series, and probably against the Bulls, too. Unless Rose gets back to 2011 form, OKC would have the two best players in a series against the Pacers, Bulls, and Nets.

This also means you're projecting five teams to win 57+ games, correct? That's only happened once in the last 10 years, and most years in that time, there's not even been five combined teams that won 55+ games. A few years there were six or seven 55+ win teams, but there's only been one instance in the last decade five teams won 57+ games. It's probably just as rare the further back you go, but I just went back to the 2003 season for quick reference.

2 points to clarify.

#1 - it's a ranking of best records, not best teams.
#2 - I'll have to adjust my win/loss projections after I'm done with all 30 teams to get to the correct amount of total wins. Right now I probably have quite a few too many wins out there as you've pointed out. That will be corrected in the next week or two.

I'd say its a pretty fair analysis, again its RS only, and figure the east will have the top 4, and will have a slightly easier schedule with Philly, Orlando, Toronto, Milwaukee, and a down Boston.