The Real Deal

[DontH8TheBrody]

I have watched every thunder game this year, and as the mid point is approaching I find myself wondering.. Is our current roster, right now, good enough to win an NBA title, no variables and regardless of who we are playing..

Assuming Russell comes back and by the time playoffs come around he's back good as new, our rotations right now would be: RW/Thabo/KD/Serge/Perk and then Jackson/Lambo/Fish or hopefully Jones/Collison/Adams.

Watching this team full strength early on this year I felt that they were hands down the best team in the league this year. But losing a top 5 player in Russ has made me consider a few things..

1) The rotations will look a lot better once Russ is back obviously. But in the playoffs any smart coach playing OKC would constantly double Russ/KD with 2 offensive liabilitys and Serge who can't create his own shot on the floor. Would much rather prefer Brooks crunch time lineup to start the year.. RW/RJ/Lamb/KD/Serge.

2) Love the young nucleus on our team. We have dead weight in Fish/Perk/ and to an extent Thabo. I watch these guys though and I ask myself, conference finals Vs SA, or NBA finals against Indy or Mia, will second year Jackson and really rookies Lamb and Adams be able to play in the moment and do it when it means the most? Love the young core but I'm concerned with inexperience and after KD/Russ who we know will bring it.. I'm somewhat concerned about our young guys in the big moments.

3) Outside shooting.. Has been a glaring weak point as of late. With some very weak 3 point games lately, I think we need one more consistent deep threat. KD/Lamb are really our only deep options as Russ, RJ, Ibaka are hit and miss downtown and Thabo seems to have completely lost his stroke this year.. Dunleavy/Neal/Korver a guy like that would really help IMO. Portland/GS/Hou can all shoot lights out from deep and they hang around us in games just for that reason.

4) Final Point: Is this roster good enough to get it done? I think OKC should be favored against everybody besides Miami. If I'm Presti I am doing everything possible trying to get Afflalo from Orlando for a Thabo/PJ/1st/2nd package. Afflalo known as a lockdown defender, can fill that defensive void of Sef, but with his breakout year and being a good 3 point shooter he would clear up a lot of needs for our team.. Really think he would be a great fit, and at 27.. Not just a rental, another possible building block player.

What are you're guys opinions?

[bondom34]

Brody, good write up, just a few points I'd make/change:
1. On the rotations, I agree but would change that lineup, as you mention later the question of how the young guys perform could be a concern, and having both RJ and Lamb on at the same time in important situations may be too much too soon. I think I'd go with a similar lineup, but replace Lamb (or Jackson) w/ Thabo, just for defensive purposes.

2. Agreed, its a concern, but looking back at the last few years, last year K Mart was in OKC and coughed up a bad PO run, so vets are no guarantee either!

3. I'd love a move for a solid vet shooter as well, but think Orlando's asking price is gonna be too high, probably asking for Lamb or RJ in return (most trade rumors seem to indicate that). I think a better/more attainable target could be Dunleavy Jr. from Chicago. I think a deal around PJ/Thabeet and a late pick could be worked out, or maybe something involving Thabo and taking back a small contract. He's older than AA, but only signed through next year on a deal a little smaller than Thabo, and he's played better in a smaller sample in the PO too.

4. Agreed.

[DontH8TheBrody]

Thanks for the response bondom.

1) I can see that making more sense on the rotations as well.. I think I'm just out to get Thabo right now because he has been so horrific on the offensive end lately.. Open lay ups, turnovers off his foot, it's just hard to watch.

2) Very true.

3) Here's something that I counter with.. I understand that Orlando will be asking for a lot but would you be prepared to trade Lamb for Afflalo? I'd have to think long and hard.. If they said give us Lamb for AA, I think I would have to pull the trigger. Lamb has huge upside, but if I'm Presti I'm pulling the trigger and giving this team the best shot to win.. Afflalo is only 27 too.. Lots of game left in him and he seems to be getting better.. Get the borderline all star, give us a very good chance the next two seasons, and Im sure Presti would find another SG gem in the draft.

[bondom34]

Brody, agree on all 3 points actually. I'd do it for AA myself, but its not really the way the front office rolls w/ that stuff. I think I'd do it as AA is still only 27 and on a good deal, but doubt it happens unfortunately. Would love it though. As for Thabo, I feel the same way, but just wouldn't want the younger guys out together so much.

[GREENE1148]

Afflalo has the reputation of a 'lockdown' defender because he played Kobe well for a few games yeah? All defensive metrics have the guy as a poor defensive player for the last 4-5 seasons, ever since he left Detroit basically...

No, I wouldn't trade Lamb for him right now, no way, Lamb is borderline already the better player, just not getting near the usage/minutes that Afflalo is getting, plus he's on a rookie deal, and we have control of him even once that ends...

[bbms]

1 - I don't think Lamb is playing a lot of crunch time in the playoffs. Sadly, Fisher is more likely for that. I think our crunch time formation in the playoffs is WB/Fish/Sef/Durant/Ibaka or Collison, unless Sefolosha is traded by the deadline. I don't think we should play a lot Jackson + Westbrook backcourt. Westbrook had tendencies to completely ignore that Harden was on court for stretches, I imagine how much he'll ignore Jackson.

2 - I don't think Adams and Lamb will be seeing much more than 20 MPG on the playoffs. Adams probably gets kicked out of 8-man rotations.

3 - Thunder is really missing a lot of wide open threes, but Durant is taking some bad threes that he wouldn't take with Westbrook on. A 3D guy like Dunleavy would really be good since he has contract going next season, is cap friendly and don't put pressure on Lamb to be starting material next season. Should be the perfect move here: flip Sefolosha for Dunleavy. Korver and Neal would make Lamb an immediate starter, because of his defense. I don't know if that's the best move.

I think Afflalo is a huge commitment for the Thunder, since he has 3 years of contract. Maybe he exercises his option, maybe he doesn't. If he exercises, I feel that he limits Lamb's development a lot and pretty much kills any possibility of resigning Jackson and Lamb. Also, if I'm Magic, I wouldn't let him go cheap. One of the best contracts in the league imo.

4 - I don't know. Westbrook is a huge question mark. Let's say he looks good in his comeback: With a competent coach, we should be able to make a heavy push for the title. We can't expect that from Brooks. I think with Brooks we can win against Indiana, but can't against the Heat (bad matchup, Brooks won't adjust, 2012 again).

[comingbacktousa]

4 - I don't know. Westbrook is a huge question mark. Let's say he looks good in his comeback: With a competent coach, we should be able to make a heavy push for the title. We can't expect that from Brooks. I think with Brooks we can win against Indiana, but can't against the Heat (bad matchup, Brooks won't adjust, 2012 again).

I think Brooks has done a much better job playing matchups this season compared to any season before it. Ignoring the entire West and worrying about the Heat doesn't make sense. The West has plenty of tough matchups. Assuming Memphis gets in for Phoenix, any team can win any 7 game series depending on matchup.

I agree Lamb may get squeezed out some for Fisher which is doesn't make sense considering Lamb is much better equipped to knockdown wide open 3's that teams give the shooting guards when both Westbrook and Durant are on the floor.

I'm against an Affalo trade for a couple reasons. He is actually a bad defender that some how got the reputation he is a good one. He is also the type of player to avoid, long contract and putting up big numbers on possibly the worst team in the NBA. Also, I think its a waste of assets. OKC has plenty of perimeter scoring. What OKC doesn't have is any sort of big man scoring inside the paint with the starters. Using assets to get more perimeter scoring rather than address the clear weakness on the team doesn't make sense to me.

[bbms]

Fans' desperate trying to figure out a trade where we end up with a three point shooting guard has a lot more to do with dumping Sefolosha, who's became a liability both ends, with the Thunder's needs.

But yeah, there is an issue with floor spacing. The key to Thunder's offensive success has always been defense inside, floor spacing and infiltration. Our floor spacing isn't that good because Durant is playing more on the ball (due to Westbrook's absence), Reggie Jackson, the sub, isn't a good three point shooter, Sefolosha and Fisher are stinking from three and the main good three pointers we have are Lamb (who is cold in january) and Perry Jones, who sees way limited minutes.

See the fragility of our roleplayers from three? It's ok to rely on Lamb and Jones, but not bet everything on them, at least in this season. Coming playoff time, our guard rotation will probably be WB/Sefo/Jackson/Lamb/Fisher. Three of them are poor three point shooters and other one is a corpse.

This is why I hate Brooks: we could have an easier life if we just cut out some minutes from Sefolosha (25 minutes in january) and Fisher (21 minutes in january) and just gave them to Jones and Lamb. Also, Perkins is useless, no, negative when we're not facing Howard, Duncan, Randolph and good post scorers. Why not limit him to like 15 mpg when we're not against them and give the minutes to the youngsters?

Many of the Thunder's problems are potentialized by Brooks' poor management. Sure we need some more 3pt shooting specially with WB out when Durant, the one that can space the floor is handling more the ball. But he could amortize the problem easily.

I also would like to have good scoring from PF/C. But those kind of guys are expensive, or players you would never want to build around. That's why we drafted Adams, it's a long-term plan to build around a more traditional PG-Wing-C core. But right now, it's impossible to have a scoring center that doesn't break the "floor spacing+defense inside" recipe the Thunder hold, which is the recipe that's winning the NBA the past 3 seasons. Sure, Dirk could score inside. But Durant and Ibaka score more inside together than him by a margin.

Brooks will be a dumbass coach forever, get used to it, and don't get caught in gimmicks. And I'd love some Daequan Cook love back. I'd totally get into Korver, Dunleavy or Neal to have that kind of guy off the bench (except Dunleavy is starting material) for a fair price.

[spearsy23]

This is why I hate Brooks: we could have an easier life if we just cut out some minutes from Sefolosha (25 minutes in january) and Fisher (21 minutes in january) and just gave them to Jones and Lamb. Also, Perkins is useless, no, negative when we're not facing Howard, Duncan, Randolph and good post scorers. Why not limit him to like 15 mpg when we're not against them and give the minutes to the youngsters?

Perkins is playing 19.5 mpg... Is that 4 minutes that big of a deal? Sef is obviously going to be playing big minutes, especially while Westbrook is out and it's the same with Fish, who is one of two pg's on the roster and our 3rd/4th best three point shooter. Jones isn't killing it from three, he's taking less than 1 per game and shooting 37%. I really like him but he's not the answer to our shooting problems.

Brooks will be a dumbass coach forever, get used to it, and don't get caught in gimmicks.

Yep, we'd be so much better without him, some other coach would turn Jackson into a Westbrook clone and have fisher shooting 50% from three.

[bondom34]

Yea, I'm not goig to argu eBrooks as an elite NBA coach, but he's average at worst. Other than Fisher's minutes, he's doing well, and considering the team is short a starting guard, its fine. Perk is 7th on the team in minutes, Fisher 9th. I'd rather not run guys into the ground and the other options aren't better by much if at all.

[comingbacktousa]

Fans' desperate trying to figure out a trade where we end up with a three point shooting guard has a lot more to do with dumping Sefolosha, who's became a liability both ends, with the Thunder's needs.

Sef is in no way a liability on defense. He gets beat sometimes because he consistently guards the best offensive player. Those guys are going to beat him sometimes, good offense beats good defense. He is still the best wing defender on the team. He does take some matchups lightly it seems but not against key opponents.

But yeah, there is an issue with floor spacing. The key to Thunder's offensive success has always been defense inside, floor spacing and infiltration. Our floor spacing isn't that good because Durant is playing more on the ball (due to Westbrook's absence), Reggie Jackson, the sub, isn't a good three point shooter, Sefolosha and Fisher are stinking from three and the main good three pointers we have are Lamb (who is cold in january) and Perry Jones, who sees way limited minutes.

I also would like to have good scoring from PF/C. But those kind of guys are expensive, or players you would never want to build around. That's why we drafted Adams, it's a long-term plan to build around a more traditional PG-Wing-C core. But right now, it's impossible to have a scoring center that doesn't break the "floor spacing+defense inside" recipe the Thunder hold, which is the recipe that's winning the NBA the past 3 seasons. Sure, Dirk could score inside. But Durant and Ibaka score more inside together than him by a margin.

3 point shooting is steaky, relying on that for consistent scoring doesn't happen unless you have several of them in case one or two is cold. Kind of the problem with Houston a couple games back. The true elite shooters that can overcome that aren't going to be traded.

If you want talk about winning recipe in the Nba...where did the Spurs/Heat go when they needed points in the half court set? The post, either through Lebron or Duncan. It was clear Miami's best offense came from Lebron posting up and passing out of double teams. Its hard to find teams that has won the nba championship without any sort of post presence. Dirk's Dallas is the only one I can think of since he post Jordan Bulls time.

Al Horford is likely available(not for this season but future) and doesn't break that model. Several other unavailable guys also don't break that model, Lopez,Duncan, Marc Gasol, etc. OKC doesn't need one of the elites but someone with atleast passable offense like Hibbert's offense. Adams could be the answer but hes simply not ready yet.

[Envelopes]

I think Sef and Perk are getting better as the year goes on. Only way to replace them is by swapping them plus assets, when we have the two picks this year to replace them. I think we stay with what we have or hope someone can be picked up of the waivers.

[DontH8TheBrody]

Quick note I have to get off my chesr too.. I am just sick an tired of when Thabo picks up the ball on a turnover and he never ever ever head mans it up to KD or someone ahead of the play.. Instead electing to slowly move up the court with it, or tonight when he tried to dribble behind his back and turn it back over ...

[bbms]

This is why I hate Brooks: we could have an easier life if we just cut out some minutes from Sefolosha (25 minutes in january) and Fisher (21 minutes in january) and just gave them to Jones and Lamb. Also, Perkins is useless, no, negative when we're not facing Howard, Duncan, Randolph and good post scorers. Why not limit him to like 15 mpg when we're not against them and give the minutes to the youngsters?

Perkins is playing 19.5 mpg... Is that 4 minutes that big of a deal? Sef is obviously going to be playing big minutes, especially while Westbrook is out and it's the same with Fish, who is one of two pg's on the roster and our 3rd/4th best three point shooter. Jones isn't killing it from three, he's taking less than 1 per game and shooting 37%. I really like him but he's not the answer to our shooting problems.

Yes, it is a big deal. Take out 4 minutes from Perkins and 5 minutes from Sefolosha, and Jones is a 20 mpg guy and Lamb is a 30 mpg one. Also, Perkins' minutes went up after Westbrook went down, when it should be the other way around: more offense to compensate Westbrook's absence. About Perry's three: hard to find a rythm playing 10 mpg.

Brooks will be a dumbass coach forever, get used to it, and don't get caught in gimmicks.

Yep, we'd be so much better without him, some other coach would turn Jackson into a Westbrook clone and have fisher shooting 50% from three.

Hahahha nice argument. There are worse things than Brooks, but a lot of other coaches would do a better job than Brooks. Thunder three-ball is off? Slow down the pace, don't let it become a shooting contest. What he does? Check Utah and Denver. Those were winnable games even cold from three.

If Durant doesn't have a godlike game against the GSW, we are lost. You don't ever push the pace against the Warriors. No matter how good your team is, you don't go into a shooting contest against them. 63 points on 35 fgs (12/19 from three), that's what Thompson and Curry combined for. Any day in the week you lose against this. Durant bailed Brooks out.

Until he figures out these little things about basketball game, we'll have the worst coach in the Western Conference Playoffs.

[spearsy23]

Until he figures out these little things about basketball game, we'll have the worst coach in the Western Conference Playoffs.

I don't have time to respond to all of it so I'll stick to this for now. Mchale, Jackson, Stotts, Hornacek and even Rivers (without Thibs) haven't proven to be better than Brooks.

[Devilanche]

Yeap, i think trading for afflalo is a buy high preposition. would rather make a move for Dunleavy.

[RainCity]

Respond to the following paragraphs please...

1) I think Dunleavy would be a perfect complimentary piece to the rotation. He's long, can knock down the 3 and I think his IQ of the game is very solid. He can hit from mid range, and from what I've seen from him he seems like a team first type of player. I know AA is probably the better overall player, but the magics asking price would be just too much.

2) Also, to be honest, after watching the game last night against the Celtics, Lamb looked really solid IMO and I truly believe he will continue to develop and gain confidence along the way. Not sure if anyone saw it or would agree with my comparison, but watching lamb last night looked like a very young Ray Allen. Quick and fluid release, shooting off screens, step back jumpers off the dribble. He looked like a player I'd want to hang on to and continue to develop.

3) I also saw great athleticism (obvious) from Perry. When catching that quick pass from RJ on the left baseline showed me he's got solid hand/eye coordination and quick reflexes to catch the ball clean and quickly get up to dunk it effortlessly. He's also got a pretty solid shooting touch from both midrange as well as beyond the 3 point line. I hope OKC can somehow keep him. I'd love to see how he'd develop in OKC as they seem to have the right method of grooming young players and turning them into quality NBA players.

4) With that being said, I have faith in both of them as well as Adams developing and carving out future roles in the rotation. I'd much rather trade draft picks instead of giving away Lamb or Perry. Perry just needs more opportunities and time on the floor IMO.

5) If we somehow made a trade for Dunleavy what would we have to give up? Would Perry or Lamb automatically have to be included? Or would it be possible to hang on to both those guys and offer a package of Thabo and picks? Let me know what you think.

[RainCity]

Yeap, i think trading for afflalo is a buy high preposition. would rather make a move for Dunleavy.

I completely agree with Afflalo being a buy high preposition. Dunleavy would be an awesome veteran addition to this team. Question is, what's the asking price? I strongly believe Lamb and Perry will develop and become consistent contributors to the rotation in future years. I'd rather trade picks or a combo of picks and Thabo if it meant keeping Lamb and Perry. We have time to develop them as they are signed to financial friendly contracts for several more years....

[bondom34]

Respond to the following paragraphs please...

1) I think Dunleavy would be a perfect complimentary piece to the rotation. He's long, can knock down the 3 and I think his IQ of the game is very solid. He can hit from mid range, and from what I've seen from him he seems like a team first type of player. I know AA is probably the better overall player, but the magics asking price would be just too much.

2) Also, to be honest, after watching the game last night against the Celtics, Lamb looked really solid IMO and I truly believe he will continue to develop and gain confidence along the way. Not sure if anyone saw it or would agree with my comparison, but watching lamb last night looked like a very young Ray Allen. Quick and fluid release, shooting off screens, step back jumpers off the dribble. He looked like a player I'd want to hang on to and continue to develop.

3) I also saw great athleticism (obvious) from Perry. When catching that quick pass from RJ on the left baseline showed me he's got solid hand/eye coordination and quick reflexes to catch the ball clean and quickly get up to dunk it effortlessly. He's also got a pretty solid shooting touch from both midrange as well as beyond the 3 point line. I hope OKC can somehow keep him. I'd love to see how he'd develop in OKC as they seem to have the right method of grooming young players and turning them into quality NBA players.

4) With that being said, I have faith in both of them as well as Adams developing and carving out future roles in the rotation. I'd much rather trade draft picks instead of giving away Lamb or Perry. Perry just needs more opportunities and time on the floor IMO.

5) If we somehow made a trade for Dunleavy what would we have to give up? Would Perry or Lamb automatically have to be included? Or would it be possible to hang on to both those guys and offer a package of Thabo and picks? Let me know what you think.

I agree with all, and the more I think about it, the more I am unsure if PJ would have to go in a deal. I think something like MDJ and Mike James for Thabo and a few second round picks could work, as it keeps Chicago under the tax and cuts a year off Dunleavy's deal, giving them more cap space this summer, but I could be way off too.

[RainCity]

I agree with all, and the more I think about it, the more I am unsure if PJ would have to go in a deal. I think something like MDJ and Mike James for Thabo and a few second round picks could work, as it keeps Chicago under the tax and cuts a year off Dunleavy's deal, giving them more cap space this summer, but I could be way off too.

Bondom, it's been a while since I last posted anything but I remember having a lot of respect for most of the posts I've read from you in the past. Do you see the same type of longterm potential I see in Lamb and PJIII or am I overhyping PJIII? Because I feel strongly about both Lamb and Perry, as well as Jackson and Adams, I'm more inclined to let those guys continue to develop based off what we've seen from them so far, rather than trading one of them and hoping we can strike gold on future draft picks. Presti has done a great job in prior drafts, but every draft choice comes with the risk of not panning out. With that being said, I think Presti nailed the Adams pick (still to early to say he nailed it, but getting a center like the Kiwi at #12, the kid looks promising), got a young lengthy SG who is looking pretty good so far and will improve with more experience, and then to top it off, selecting a player in Perry Jones (arguably a top 5, top 10 talent) in the late first round. Those are three very young, but very developable players who are already showing some progress. Instead of using next years draft picks on drafting more young players in need of development, we should use those draft asserts to acquire a MDJ or Mike James like you said. But with Adams, Lamb, Jones and Roberson, I don't think we need to add mor more youth.