Dion Waiters

[sterncohen]

Apologies if you have all covered this in another thread, but I am at a loss to figure out how Waiters is playing 28 minutes a game for OKC. Your fun Dion Waiters stats:

Among the 79 SG's listed in ESPN's advanced stats, Waiters is
-- 75th in total shooting percentage at .448
-- 58th in PER at 10.28, but that's for the year as a whole; his PER of 8.5 with the Thunder would put him 71st
-- 64th in rebound rate at 4.6
-- 60th in assist rate at 12.6 (Can it really be this high? Nope. With the Thunder it's 9.1, which would put him 74th)

Basketball reference has his value over a replacement-level player at -0.7 - in other words, worse than a random guy picked from the D-League. Real plus-minus is an extraordinarily impressive -4.8 with the Thunder, -4.0 for the season overall.

But you didn't need those stats; you've watched him play and you've seen that he stops the ball, that he is incredibly fond of bad 22-foot jumpers, and that he can get to the rim but is completely unable to finish there. So ... what's going on here, other than Brooks's well-known fondness to give major minutes to guys who can't play? In the past, we've always thought this was about Veteran Presence - see Fisher, Derek, and Perkins, Kendrick. Now?

[bondom34]

Check the season thread.

We all hate him (at least his game).

[spearsy23]

Check the season thread.

We all hate him

Actually, he has kinda grown on me.

(at least his game).

Oh.... That hasn't.

[bondom34]

Check the season thread.

We all hate him

Actually, he has kinda grown on me.

(at least his game).

Oh.... That hasn't.

I seriously typed that sentence, realized what I'd written, and added the parenthesis because of it!

Seems like an OK kid. Terrible player.

[kd 35]

Dion earns those minutes on the defensive end and isn't a complete liability offensively like Roberson. Scotty has always seemed to favor defensive talent at the 2 so it's not surprising he is getting big minutes despite his offensive struggles. I think he makes just enough of those deep step-back 2's to feel confident enough to be taking those shots. He just seems to go out of his way to try making a highlight-reel play instead of making the right play. The guy is talented and could be exactly who we need at the 2 if he would put his skills to use in more effective ways. I still like his potential for that reason. He's young (23) and has time to learn.

I think he could be solid with an actual healthy OKC line-up where he is the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th scoring option on the court at any given time. A line-up of Westbrook, Waiters, Durant, Ibaka, Kanter, for example, would be tough to handle for opposing defenses. I prefer Morrow at the 2 for his lethal catch-and-shoot ability though. Either way, that's 5 legitimate scoring threats on the court. That's something we've never really had in OKC.

[Doctor Flow]

In a strange way I think Dion adds to the chemistry. He has a tough guy persona like Westbrook, Kanter, Adams, etc. & Durant said he likes that about him.

Dont get me wrong id rather have Maurice Harkless at the 2. Or the Thunder should bring Christon up from the D League and then try to get Wroten as a backup pg and put Christon at backup sg but make him a pg defensively.

We re stuck with Dion for the season though.

[spearsy23]

You know who we should really play at the 2? Andre Roberson.

[bondom34]

Dion earns those minutes on the defensive end and isn't a complete liability offensively like Roberson. Scotty has always seemed to favor defensive talent at the 2 so it's not surprising he is getting big minutes despite his offensive struggles. I think he makes just enough of those deep step-back 2's to feel confident enough to be taking those shots. He just seems to go out of his way to try making a highlight-reel play instead of making the right play. The guy is talented and could be exactly who we need at the 2 if he would put his skills to use in more effective ways. I still like his potential for that reason. He's young (23) and has time to learn.

I think he could be solid with an actual healthy OKC line-up where he is the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th scoring option on the court at any given time. A line-up of Westbrook, Waiters, Durant, Ibaka, Kanter, for example, would be tough to handle for opposing defenses. I prefer Morrow at the 2 for his lethal catch-and-shoot ability though. Either way, that's 5 legitimate scoring threats on the court. That's something we've never really had in OKC.

Just wanted to point it out, b/c I didn't know if you were pro or anti Roberson, but Dion's "defense" looks good to the eyes, but it doesn't do anything. Most metrics put him as a negative defender, Roberson is a top guy in the league in perimeter D. Dion also has a massively worse TS, and they're the same age. The only thing Dion does better is shoot, but those shots don't go in.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MWk1H

[kd 35]

Dion earns those minutes on the defensive end and isn't a complete liability offensively like Roberson. Scotty has always seemed to favor defensive talent at the 2 so it's not surprising he is getting big minutes despite his offensive struggles. I think he makes just enough of those deep step-back 2's to feel confident enough to be taking those shots. He just seems to go out of his way to try making a highlight-reel play instead of making the right play. The guy is talented and could be exactly who we need at the 2 if he would put his skills to use in more effective ways. I still like his potential for that reason. He's young (23) and has time to learn.

I think he could be solid with an actual healthy OKC line-up where he is the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th scoring option on the court at any given time. A line-up of Westbrook, Waiters, Durant, Ibaka, Kanter, for example, would be tough to handle for opposing defenses. I prefer Morrow at the 2 for his lethal catch-and-shoot ability though. Either way, that's 5 legitimate scoring threats on the court. That's something we've never really had in OKC.

Just wanted to point it out, b/c I didn't know if you were pro or anti Roberson, but Dion's "defense" looks good to the eyes, but it doesn't do anything. Most metrics put him as a negative defender, Roberson is a top guy in the league in perimeter D. Dion also has a massively worse TS, and they're the same age. The only thing Dion does better is shoot, but those shots don't go in.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MWk1H

Yeah, I'm not really anti- Roberson or Waiters. If anything I tend to be a little too optimistic about the team and players. I like both players but both have their shortcomings.

I'll admit I don't follow the metrics much so I wasn't aware of Dion's poor defensive ratings but I do know Roberson is elite defensively and is about the best rebounder you could ask for at his position. I would agree that Waiters doesn't compare in those categories. I was just trying to explain why we are seeing so much of Waiters. I'd like Roberson in the lineup more when the team is fully healthy and they are able to surround him with more offensive weapons. OKC became stagnant at times offensively in the playoffs with Thabo when teams were able to sag off him to help on Russ and Kevin. I see the same thing happening when Andre is on the court. It's just compounded now with Durant and so many other guys being in and out of the line-up all year. Ideally, Roberson would develop into a true 3&D guy but he hasn't shown much yet in terms of shooting ability. The TS% comparison is concerning considering how poorly Roberson shoots the ball but the vast majority of his attempts are at the rim and/or he's left wide open. If Dion would stop taking those deep contested step-back shots, he'd have a much higher TS%. I don't think Dion is a bad shooter; just an undisciplined one.

Here's some interesting shot charts:

Roberson http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=203460

Waiters http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=203079

If you scroll over the individual bars on the bar graphs or the dots on the shot charts, you will get more detailed info. Almost a third of Roberson's shots occur with his defender more than 6 feet away and over half of his total shots are at the rim. I think his TS% is skewed a bit. The charts also show Waiters deep 2 problem.

[oeskaer]

My only hope is that our FO will pay good attention to his play and realise that we really really reallllllllly need to get rid of him.

[bondom34]

Dion earns those minutes on the defensive end and isn't a complete liability offensively like Roberson. Scotty has always seemed to favor defensive talent at the 2 so it's not surprising he is getting big minutes despite his offensive struggles. I think he makes just enough of those deep step-back 2's to feel confident enough to be taking those shots. He just seems to go out of his way to try making a highlight-reel play instead of making the right play. The guy is talented and could be exactly who we need at the 2 if he would put his skills to use in more effective ways. I still like his potential for that reason. He's young (23) and has time to learn.

I think he could be solid with an actual healthy OKC line-up where he is the 3rd, 4th, or even 5th scoring option on the court at any given time. A line-up of Westbrook, Waiters, Durant, Ibaka, Kanter, for example, would be tough to handle for opposing defenses. I prefer Morrow at the 2 for his lethal catch-and-shoot ability though. Either way, that's 5 legitimate scoring threats on the court. That's something we've never really had in OKC.

Just wanted to point it out, b/c I didn't know if you were pro or anti Roberson, but Dion's "defense" looks good to the eyes, but it doesn't do anything. Most metrics put him as a negative defender, Roberson is a top guy in the league in perimeter D. Dion also has a massively worse TS, and they're the same age. The only thing Dion does better is shoot, but those shots don't go in.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MWk1H

Yeah, I'm not really anti- Roberson or Waiters. If anything I tend to be a little too optimistic about the team and players. I like both players but both have their shortcomings.

I'll admit I don't follow the metrics much so I wasn't aware of Dion's poor defensive ratings but I do know Roberson is elite defensively and is about the best rebounder you could ask for at his position. I would agree that Waiters doesn't compare in those categories. I was just trying to explain why we are seeing so much of Waiters. I'd like Roberson in the lineup more when the team is fully healthy and they are able to surround him with more offensive weapons. OKC became stagnant at times offensively in the playoffs with Thabo when teams were able to sag off him to help on Russ and Kevin. I see the same thing happening when Andre is on the court. It's just compounded now with Durant and so many other guys being in and out of the line-up all year. Ideally, Roberson would develop into a true 3&D guy but he hasn't shown much yet in terms of shooting ability. The TS% comparison is concerning considering how poorly Roberson shoots the ball but the vast majority of his attempts are at the rim and/or he's left wide open. If Dion would stop taking those deep contested step-back shots, he'd have a much higher TS%. I don't think Dion is a bad shooter; just an undisciplined one.

Here's some interesting shot charts:

Roberson http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=203460

Waiters http://nbasavant.com/player.php?player_id=203079

If you scroll over the individual bars on the bar graphs or the dots on the shot charts, you will get more detailed info. Almost a third of Roberson's shots occur with his defender more than 6 feet away and over half of his total shots are at the rim. I think his TS% is skewed a bit. The charts also show Waiters deep 2 problem.

Those long 2s....

[improvisor]

When the trade happens I have said the exact thing that's being said about him.

1. Good defense most of the time when he's not complaing about fouls.
2. Fast and gets to the rim.
3. When he gets to the rim he forgets why he's there and don't finish.
4. Great catch and shoot player but falls in love with long 2's while fading away.
5. Young and dumb which can improve.

[Thunderhead]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/royceyoung/status/579122659008495617[/tweet]

[spearsy23]

Once again Dion's comments are exactly what they should be. It's still going to be about if his play follows. I don't believe he is a lost cause, he's just a bad offensive player right now that DOES have the talent to turn it around. We can only wait so long though, if he does the same dumb stuff next year he'll have to go. Plus side? Contract year next year, he needs to figure it out just as badly as we need him to.

[Bravenewworld]

I don't understand the hate Waiters gets.
Every time i have a chance to sit down and watch an OKC game he is doing great things. Even right this second he is playing fantastic and doing exactly what he needs to do.

I just think people watched him chuck up some shots while adjusting to a new system (actually, many did not even wait that long to start their anti Waiters rants), payed way too much to silly advanced statistics, have little in the way of patients and then got on this nonsense trend of disliking him.
Instead of simply allowing him to grow into that vital piece that he seems to be quickly becoming.

[spearsy23]

I don't understand the hate Waiters gets.
Every time i have a chance to sit down and watch an OKC game he is doing great things. Even right this second he is playing fantastic and doing exactly what he needs to do.

I just think people watched him chuck up some shots while adjusting to a new system (actually, many did not even wait that long to start their anti Waiters rants), payed way too much to silly advanced statistics, have little in the way of patients and then got on this nonsense trend of disliking him.
Instead of simply allowing him to grow into that vital piece that he seems to be quickly becoming.

It's easy to post this after this game. But just look at his gamescore's it's like 25ish 5 20 5 4 6 5 9 3 15 7 5 5. He has been horribly inconsistent and inefficient as a whole. I really don't know how you don't see it, every number advanced or otherwise shows it.

[bondom34]

Yeah, I can't fault the kid for effort, but he's still not consistent at all.

[Bravenewworld]

I don't understand the hate Waiters gets.
Every time i have a chance to sit down and watch an OKC game he is doing great things. Even right this second he is playing fantastic and doing exactly what he needs to do.

I just think people watched him chuck up some shots while adjusting to a new system (actually, many did not even wait that long to start their anti Waiters rants), payed way too much to silly advanced statistics, have little in the way of patients and then got on this nonsense trend of disliking him.
Instead of simply allowing him to grow into that vital piece that he seems to be quickly becoming.

It's easy to post this after this game. But just look at his gamescore's it's like 25ish 5 20 5 4 6 5 9 3 15 7 5 5. He has been horribly inconsistent and inefficient as a whole. I really don't know how you don't see it, every number advanced or otherwise shows it.

Not the first ive posted it and it probably wont be the last.
Its also simply him having figured out his role, which as stated would take time, especially after the addition of Kanter.
A young player adjusting to an entirely new system, why anyone is surprised (or not expect) by temporary inconsistencies is beyond me.

Its not that i dont see his previous inconsistent play, i simply recognize it as temporary thing and a byproduct of a situation.
Its exactly why i tried to get more people to focus on what he did last season with the Cavs (despite them being a bad team, they had a consistent and stable offense) then this season and his 25 or whatever games on a Cavs team that had a wreck of an offense. Instead most people seemed to want to focus on a small chunk from a cavs team that had zero offensive identity.

[spearsy23]

I don't understand the hate Waiters gets.
Every time i have a chance to sit down and watch an OKC game he is doing great things. Even right this second he is playing fantastic and doing exactly what he needs to do.

I just think people watched him chuck up some shots while adjusting to a new system (actually, many did not even wait that long to start their anti Waiters rants), payed way too much to silly advanced statistics, have little in the way of patients and then got on this nonsense trend of disliking him.
Instead of simply allowing him to grow into that vital piece that he seems to be quickly becoming.

It's easy to post this after this game. But just look at his gamescore's it's like 25ish 5 20 5 4 6 5 9 3 15 7 5 5. He has been horribly inconsistent and inefficient as a whole. I really don't know how you don't see it, every number advanced or otherwise shows it.

Not the first ive posted it and it probably wont be the last.
Its also simply him having figured out his role, which as stated would take time, especially after the addition of Kanter.
A young player adjusting to an entirely new system, why anyone is surprised (or not expect) by temporary inconsistencies is beyond me.

Its not that i dont see his previous inconsistent play, i simply recognize it as temporary thing and a byproduct of a situation.
Its exactly why i tried to get more people to focus on what he did last season with the Cavs (despite them being a bad team, they had a consistent and stable offense) then this season and his 25 or whatever games on a Cavs team that had a wreck of an offense. Instead most people seemed to want to focus on a small chunk from a cavs team that had zero offensive identity.

I would argue that the smallest chunk of his career is the time he was being consistent, I.e. Following the all-star break last season. Outside of that he has been this inconsistent guy every step of the way.

[Bravenewworld]

It's easy to post this after this game. But just look at his gamescore's it's like 25ish 5 20 5 4 6 5 9 3 15 7 5 5. He has been horribly inconsistent and inefficient as a whole. I really don't know how you don't see it, every number advanced or otherwise shows it.

Not the first ive posted it and it probably wont be the last.
Its also simply him having figured out his role, which as stated would take time, especially after the addition of Kanter.
A young player adjusting to an entirely new system, why anyone is surprised (or not expect) by temporary inconsistencies is beyond me.

Its not that i dont see his previous inconsistent play, i simply recognize it as temporary thing and a byproduct of a situation.
Its exactly why i tried to get more people to focus on what he did last season with the Cavs (despite them being a bad team, they had a consistent and stable offense) then this season and his 25 or whatever games on a Cavs team that had a wreck of an offense. Instead most people seemed to want to focus on a small chunk from a cavs team that had zero offensive identity.

I would argue that the smallest chunk of his career is the time he was being consistent, I.e. Following the all-star break last season. Outside of that he has been this inconsistent guy every step of the way.

I take little issue with his second season.
Its not unexpected to see young players be inconsistent, the best of them have been through it. He still made acceptable and impressive improvements when we saw him with the Cavs, until that team was wrecked.

Either way we've all had this conversation before and since he has seemed to settle down in a consistent role, he seems to be doing exactly what we needed him to do and exactly what gave us an advantage with Harden.