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Here is my 2 cents on how the Thunder should match up with the Warriors in a playoff series.

Starters:

Russ/Waiters/Roberson/KD/Ibaka

I believe you can't beat the Warriors playing 2 bigs. Its unfortunate since OKC has 3 quality bigs and is one of their strong points. But putting a big on Green falls right into GSW strength. Green loves it when his defender is slower of foot. It allows him to get to the rim and cause havoc.

Matchups:

Russ vs Thompson - Why? I think Russ' athletic ability, physicality, and length will cause Thompson problems. Klay was shooting over the top of Waiters. Russ has an additional 2 inches in reach vs Waiters and his jumping ability should cause more problems for Klay.

Waiters vs Barnes - Barnes is much taller than Waiters and can do some damage in the low block. But if GSW wants to run its offense through Barnes go ahead. Waiters showed he is strong enough not to be bullied in the block even by Green. Again I'm all for Barnes shooting low percentage post ups and slow down their offense.

Roberson vs Curry and KD vs Green - This is the key match ups IMO. The Curry/Green pick and roll is the most deadly set GSW runs. If you can't minimize it effectiveness you are dead. Usually the Curry/Green pick and role leads to 3 possibilities:

1. Defenders trap Curry. Green leaks out and receives a quick pass from Curry. Green either has a direct path for a layup or an easy pass to a wide open shooter. In either case the eFG% of this is about 60-70%

2. Curry's defender goes under the screen. Curry gets a open look at a 3 pointer. eFG% = 70% (Curry shoots about 48% on 3FG in those situations)

3. Defense switches. Curry ends up with a slow footed big guarding and Green ends up with a small guard guarding him in the low post. Both are horrible situations. Curry can decide which weakness to exploit.

Keeping those possibilities in mind the only way to guard the Curry/Green pick and roll is trying to fight over every screen and avoid double teaming or switching. Of course that is impossible to do every time. Curry/Green are masters at forcing you to switch. My solution is to have 2 defender that can do a decent job at guarding both Curry and Green. My choice is Roberson and KD.

Roberson is 6'7" with great length. He's OKC's best perimeter defender. Makes sense to put him on Curry. But if he is forced to switch on Green he has the size to not get dominated by Green in the post.

KD showed in the previous game that he can defend Green with his superior height and length. He also showed he can do a good job contesting Curry on a switch. Playing this match up will allow OKC to switch when need and not get instantly devestated by the Curry/Green pick and Roll. If we put Russ on Curry we will have Russ guarding Green in the low block on a switch. Not great. If we put Ibaka on Green we will have Ibaka guarding Curry on a switch. Not great.

Ibaka vs Bogut - Ibaka will be giving up size but gain on quickness. It will also allow Ibaka to stay in the paint on defense and be more of a rim protector. In our standard lineup Ibaka was guarding either Barnes (which pulls Ibaka out of the paint on defense) or Green (which forces Ibaka to guard Curry on a switch). This is a much better match up for Ibaka. He may occassionally get over powered by Bogut. But Bogut will have to guard Ibaka at the 3 point line also. That will pull Bogut out of the paint and open up driving lanes for Russ/KD/Waiters.

Bench Matchups

Kanter - I would try to avoid putting Kanter on the floor when Curry is out there. Or if he is I want Kanter on a non-screen and non-3 point shooter. That would be Ezeli, Speights, or even Livingston. Maybe even Iggy for a few minutes. When Curry is out of the game I'd also put him on Bogut.

Payne - Barbosa is pretty much the only guy he can guard. Match their minutes.

Adams - I don't think he will get much minutes. He could play some against Bogut/Ezeli when Curry is sitting down. I don't want him guarding Curry after a switch. Unlike Ibaka who can launch 3 pointers on offense or Kanter who is an offensive rebounding devil and post up threat, Adams can't really take advantage of a smaller defender. He is a very important player vs Spurs/Clippers/Cavs. But I think in this series his minutes will be very limited.

Singler - spot minutes for this guy. I'd actually put him on Green or Speights. I like him when he defends someone slower than him.

Minutes Breakdown (7 game series vs GSW)

Westbrook - 44 minutes per game
Durant - 44 minutes per game
Roberson - 30 minutes per game
Waiters - 36 minutes per game
Ibaka - 38 minutes per game

Kanter - 20 minutes per game
Payne - 12 minutes per game
Singler - 10 minutes per game
Adams - 6 minutes per game

OKC's big advantage over GSW is KD/Russ will be 2 of the 3 best players on the court. To take advantage of that we need KD/Russ to play massive minutes. They will basically be taking Adams minutes between them. And remember this is only for one series. When they play Spurs/Cavs/ect Adams can play his regular minutes and KD/Russ won't have to play 44 minutes per game.

Strategies:

1. Never, not even for 1 second have both Russ and KD not on the court. One of them has to be on the court every second of every game. GSW made their run against OKC when both Russ/KD were on the bench in the start of the 2nd Qtr. Cleveland made their run in the beginning of the 4th Qtr when Russ/KD were on the bench. OKC's strength is not the bench, don't let teams exploit it by playing the bench without KD/Russ.

2. Play only 1 big on the court (Ibaka, Adams, Kanter)

3. Occassionally go even SMALLER than GSW. Put KD at the 5 for a few minutes with Roberson at the 4. OKC has a bunch of freakishly tall athletic guys (KD, Roberson, Ibaka) who excel at small ball. And if GSW wants to center their offense on low block post ups be my guest.

4. Defend the Curry/Green pick and roll with switches.

5. Don't ever double team Curry. Curry is just too good to double team. A double team leads to an easy pass to Green who is their top assist man. You don't want to give Green an easy 3 vs 4.

6. You can't stop Curry so why even try? Dude can hit contested 3 pointers like no one else. My plan would be to allow Curry to score but shutdown everyone else. That means no double teams on Curry. OKC got caught up watching Curry and that lead to a ton of easy layups. Multiple defenders were too busy watching Curry that they lost sight of their man cutting to the rim. Watch your man. Don't worry about Curry. Even if Curry scores 60 they won't win if you shutdown everyone else.

7. Focus on shutting down Green. Green is the emotional leader and top assist man on GSW. Unlike Curry he can be shut down. Shut him down and you pull out the heart of the team. The key to shutting down Green is putting a quicker defender on him and avoid giving him easy 3 vs 4 situations. That's why its so important NOT to double team Curry. Play everyone straight up and Green's effectiveness plummets. Green is strong but at 6'6" is short and does not have outstanding length or leaping ability. A tall quicker defender that can stay in front of him gives him trouble. Yes he can post up a lighter opponent but if GSW wants to center their game on post ups be my guest. I've seen KD guard him masterfully (when they didn't double team) and Trevor Ariza give him a ton of trouble. Its when you put a relatively slow footed big on him that he destroys teams.

To show how important Green is notice the 4 games GSW lost this year. They lost one game when Green didn't play. They lost another game when he scored 5 points. They lost another game when he scored 11 with only 4 assists. In 3 out of 4 GSW losses Green played subpar. In 3 of those losses Curry averaged 35 points per game. Its pretty obvious that Green is the key.

8. When Curry goes to the rim - hard foul. Every time.

9. Make Curry work on defense. I think that is why he shot so poorly against OKC. His legs were fatigued guarding Russ. Tired legs leads to missed shots. If GSW tries to hide Curry on Roberson, I'd plant Roberson on the low block and have him lean on Curry. Curry is not use to guarding the post for extended minutes, it will tire him out trying to push a much bigger man. Take Ibaka to the 3 point line and Roberson will have the whole paint area to push him around. This will still allow KD/Russ/Waiters to drive to the rim since Bogut will be outside of the paint guarding Ibaka. That's why its so important to play just 1 big at a time. Of course GSW could hide Bogut on Roberson. But that means Curry still has to guard either Russ/Waiters. If Bogut guards Roberson, then Roberson needs to set screens, and make quick cuts to the basket to occupy Bogut. The worst situation is Roberson planting himself at the 3 point line allowing Bogut to camp 1 foot outside of the paint all game long and provide excellent rim protection.

The key is OKC should not to afraid to play small ball against GSW. OKC has literally 3 of the best small ball players on the planet: Ibaka is the protypical stretch 5 who can protect the rim. KD is the protypical stretch 4. And Russ is the protypical PG who can guard 3 positions and wreck havoc on offense. The fear to play small ball is the exact reason OKC lost to Miami in the Finals. Brooks was too stubborn and kept playing slow footed Perkins. I hope Donovan does not repeat the same mistake.

This is too much to address all at once so I'll just start with the first recommendation-
Why start a worse lineup against Golden State's traditional lineup featuring Bogut? Ibaka is certainly able to defend Green so there's no reason to have KD start out on him.

spearsy23 wrote:This is too much to address all at once so I'll just start with the first recommendation-
Why start a worse lineup against Golden State's traditional lineup featuring Bogut? Ibaka is certainly able to defend Green so there's no reason to have KD start out on him.

Yes Ibaka can defend Green. But when Curry/Green pick and roll Ibaka will end up on Steph on a switch. I don't want to see Ibaka guarding Steph one on one. I'd much rather see KD guard Steph on a Curry/Green switch. Also if we put Ibaka on Bogut he will have an easier time protecting the rim since Bogut stays close to the basket. If Ibaka guards Green he will be far from the basket.

The whole point of the Russ/Waiters/Roberson/KD/Ibaka line up is the ability to switch pick and roll without exposing OKC to a huge mismatch.

Russ vs Klay
Roberson vs Curry
KD vs Green
Waiters vs Barnes
Ibaka vs Bogut

The only massive mismatch I see in that small ball lineup is if Waiters/Russ ends up on Bogut. And if GSW wants to milk Bogut posts up be my guest. With Adams in the starting lineup he is mismatched against every GSW starter except Bogut/Green. It just is far easier to exploit a mismatch with Adams in the game. Once a mismatch is made (like Curry vs Adams) then OKC starts to cheat toward the mismatched defender. That leads to quick cuts to the basket for easy dunks. I think there were about a dozen layups against the OKC defense because the defender was too concerned about helping on a mismatch instead of guarding his man straight up.

I don't see Adams playing much in a series against GSW. On the other hand I can see Kanter getting about 15-20 minute when he faces a bench lineup that does not include Curry. Donovan hid him on guys who are not great 3 point shooters or screeners (Iggy and Livingston). Kanter may be worse than Adams on defense but at least he can take advantage of smaller defenders by post scoring and offensive rebounds. And of course Kanter had more range on his shot so he can draw defenders outside of the paint.

kraytinprime wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:This is too much to address all at once so I'll just start with the first recommendation-
Why start a worse lineup against Golden State's traditional lineup featuring Bogut? Ibaka is certainly able to defend Green so there's no reason to have KD start out on him.

Yes Ibaka can defend Green. But when Curry/Green pick and roll Ibaka will end up on Steph on a switch. I don't want to see Ibaka guarding Steph one on one. I'd much rather see KD guard Steph on a Curry/Green switch. Also if we put Ibaka on Bogut he will have an easier time protecting the rim since Bogut stays close to the basket. If Ibaka guards Green he will be far from the basket.

The whole point of the Russ/Waiters/Roberson/KD/Ibaka line up is the ability to switch pick and roll without exposing OKC to a huge mismatch.

Russ vs Klay
Roberson vs Curry
KD vs Green
Waiters vs Barnes
Ibaka vs Bogut

The only massive mismatch I see in that small ball lineup is if Waiters/Russ ends up on Bogut. And if GSW wants to milk Bogut posts up be my guest. With Adams in the starting lineup he is mismatched against every GSW starter except Bogut/Green. It just is far easier to exploit a mismatch with Adams in the game. Once a mismatch is made (like Curry vs Adams) then OKC starts to cheat toward the mismatched defender. That leads to quick cuts to the basket for easy dunks. I think there were about a dozen layups against the OKC defense because the defender was too concerned about helping on a mismatch instead of guarding his man straight up.

I don't see Adams playing much in a series against GSW. On the other hand I can see Kanter getting about 15-20 minute when he faces a bench lineup that does not include Curry. Donovan hid him on guys who are not great 3 point shooters or screeners (Iggy and Livingston). Kanter may be worse than Adams on defense but at least he can take advantage of smaller defenders by post scoring and offensive rebounds. And of course Kanter had more range on his shot so he can draw defenders outside of the paint.

Adams has been better at defending perimeter players than Ibaka this year, and they're both better than Dion.

Also, Russ I'd by far the best player on the team to defend Curry, and he showed it last game.

Well... if there's a master plan to beat GSW... they'd have more than 5 losses now. The few losses....road trips,injuries,taking an average team for granted. You're right that Over Defending Curry.. ain't worth it. He's REAL good at that. Against GSW....you do not want a "weak link". GSW finds weak links. I'm a bit unsure why Adams ain't getting more respect. He's not great but is rather reliable. Kanter scores better but is NOT good on D.

Well... in retrospect...be GOOD all 4 quarters. GSW won battle of the bench,got momentum, then the rested starters finish. OKC was doing great..sort of ran out of gas. Real solid effort. Need to sustain it ( upgrade the bench?) As good as Durant is....anyone can get tired.

old rem wrote:Well... in retrospect...be GOOD all 4 quarters. GSW won battle of the bench,got momentum, then the rested starters finish. OKC was doing great..sort of ran out of gas. Real solid effort. Need to sustain it ( upgrade the bench?) As good as Durant is....anyone can get tired.

Thanks for your input.

Play like a team instead of a collection of individual talent. Too much energy waisted on iso ball, nothing left for D.

Our starters outscored the warriors by a ton in these 3 games. Waiters is -46 against the warriors this 3 games. I think substituting in Morrow for waiters would be great, because it doesn't matter who is defending Curry, Curry will hit his shots anyways, so you might as well gain a bigger advantage on offense.

deevo wrote:Our starters outscored the warriors by a ton in these 3 games. Waiters is -46 against the warriors this 3 games. I think substituting in Morrow for waiters would be great, because it doesn't matter who is defending Curry, Curry will hit his shots anyways, so you might as well gain a bigger advantage on offense.

This is the big change I would make, I would much rather have Morrow out there than Waiters. Why not just put him on someone like Iggy where the matchup wouldn't be too bad for Morrow and just have whoever is guarding Curry hedge instead of switch? I think the slight loss on the defensive end should be negated by the change on the offensive end. You wouldn't have Waiters wasting possessions jacking up shots and turning the ball over when you can have one of the best floor spaces in the league helping Westbrook and KD close out games by opening the floor, preventing double teams and clogged lanes to the basket.

I also really hate seeing Foye running the point, he is truly awful at it. The only problem with bringing Payne back into the fold is that he is fodder for Livingston to post up against, smartest thing to do would be to have him guard Barbosa but I suspect the Warriors would easily find ways to exploit this and just have Klay stay out there when Payne is in.

Westbrook - Curry
Roberson/Singler - Klay
Morrow - Iggy
KD - Barnes
Green - Ibaka

To me offense is a bigger problem than defense for the team when closing out games, when we stall on offense we become frustrated, give momentum to the other team and give up points more easily since more missed shots and turnovers equals more transition opportunities. Our whole offense down the stretch revolves around Russ or KD taking turns isolating and running a simple ball screen. This fails to work due to every other opposing player heavily helping off who they are guarding and forcing tough shots, turnovers or the ball outside to a non-threatening player. This is why I think we should put our best shooters out there and it is why I would maybe prefer Singler out there than Roberson since he hasn't been playing too bad lately.

I can guarantee every coach in the league telling is their players to help off guys like Roberson, Adams and Waiters at every opportunity if they are left out there down the stretch.

Also to people saying we should stay big down the stretch with our best defensive lineup are kidding themselves, Adams and Ibaka don't have the post games to help punish small ball players and their defensive abilities are useless when they are being sucked out of the paint to defend shooters. I personally think it's time to move Ibaka on for a decent wing player due to the way the league is moving. I think Fournier or possibly Oladipo could be a realistic get for us.

kdthunderup wrote:Also to people saying we should stay big down the stretch with our best defensive lineup are kidding themselves, Adams and Ibaka don't have the post games to help punish small ball players and their defensive abilities are useless when they are being sucked out of the paint to defend shooters. I personally think it's time to move Ibaka on for a decent wing player due to the way the league is moving. I think Fournier or possibly Oladipo could be a realistic get for us.

Staying big has worked. Going small is what lost us the last game. Not having a post game doesn't matter when you get easy putbacks.

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:Also to people saying we should stay big down the stretch with our best defensive lineup are kidding themselves, Adams and Ibaka don't have the post games to help punish small ball players and their defensive abilities are useless when they are being sucked out of the paint to defend shooters. I personally think it's time to move Ibaka on for a decent wing player due to the way the league is moving. I think Fournier or possibly Oladipo could be a realistic get for us.

Staying big has worked. Going small is what lost us the last game. Not having a post game doesn't matter when you get easy putbacks.

When has it worked? We have tried it and it absolutely doesnt work, the defense of Ibaka and Adams is neutralised since they are defending shooters and they spacing is ruined since they dont have the post games to punish small players.

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:Also to people saying we should stay big down the stretch with our best defensive lineup are kidding themselves, Adams and Ibaka don't have the post games to help punish small ball players and their defensive abilities are useless when they are being sucked out of the paint to defend shooters. I personally think it's time to move Ibaka on for a decent wing player due to the way the league is moving. I think Fournier or possibly Oladipo could be a realistic get for us.

Staying big has worked. Going small is what lost us the last game. Not having a post game doesn't matter when you get easy putbacks.

When has it worked? We have tried it and it absolutely doesnt work, the defense of Ibaka and Adams is neutralised since they are defending shooters and they spacing is ruined since they dont have the post games to punish small players.

When the starting lineup has a positive net rating that means it's working.

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:Staying big has worked. Going small is what lost us the last game. Not having a post game doesn't matter when you get easy putbacks.

When has it worked? We have tried it and it absolutely doesnt work, the defense of Ibaka and Adams is neutralised since they are defending shooters and they spacing is ruined since they dont have the post games to punish small players.

When the starting lineup has a positive net rating that means it's working.

Yeah it doesnt work closing out games against elite small ball teams, stop looking at the stats and watch the games.

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:When has it worked? We have tried it and it absolutely doesnt work, the defense of Ibaka and Adams is neutralised since they are defending shooters and they spacing is ruined since they dont have the post games to punish small players.

When the starting lineup has a positive net rating that means it's working.

Yeah it doesnt work closing out games against elite small ball teams, stop looking at the stats and watch the games.

The stats show what's actually happening. If you recognized what you were watchng then you'd see we went small against them and gave the game back. Seriously, if you're going to be condescending then at least know what you're talking about, we finished out the game with Russ, Waiters, Robes, Durant, and Ibaka, which completely negated our largest advantage that was a 30 rebound discrepancy.

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:When the starting lineup has a positive net rating that means it's working.

Yeah it doesnt work closing out games against elite small ball teams, stop looking at the stats and watch the games.

The stats show what's actually happening. If you recognized what you were watchng then you'd see we went small against them and gave the game back. Seriously, if you're going to be condescending then at least know what you're talking about, we finished out the game with Russ, Waiters, Robes, Durant, and Ibaka, which completely negated our largest advantage that was a 30 rebound discrepancy.

Go find specific 4th qtr stats about our different lineups against the top teams then we can talk stats. I am very aware of what I'm watching and I have watched our big lineup not being able to hold their own at all against the elite small ball lineups. I've given reasons why it doesn't work and all you give me is generalised stats. There is a reason why our coaching staff go small, they know more than you.

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:Yeah it doesnt work closing out games against elite small ball teams, stop looking at the stats and watch the games.

The stats show what's actually happening. If you recognized what you were watchng then you'd see we went small against them and gave the game back. Seriously, if you're going to be condescending then at least know what you're talking about, we finished out the game with Russ, Waiters, Robes, Durant, and Ibaka, which completely negated our largest advantage that was a 30 rebound discrepancy.

Go find specific 4th qtr stats about our different lineups against the top teams then we can talk stats. I am very aware of what I'm watching and I have watched our big lineup not being able to hold their own at all against the elite small ball lineups. I've given reasons why it doesn't work and all you give me is generalised stats. There is a reason why our coaching staff go small, they know more than you.

They never play the starters in those situations and the numbers show lineups don't really change in how well they do. They've played the starters w/ Dion for Roberson, and it has the almost the same net rating it does for full games. So the same lineup with Robes would very likely be better.

bondom34 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:

spearsy23 wrote:The stats show what's actually happening. If you recognized what you were watchng then you'd see we went small against them and gave the game back. Seriously, if you're going to be condescending then at least know what you're talking about, we finished out the game with Russ, Waiters, Robes, Durant, and Ibaka, which completely negated our largest advantage that was a 30 rebound discrepancy.

Go find specific 4th qtr stats about our different lineups against the top teams then we can talk stats. I am very aware of what I'm watching and I have watched our big lineup not being able to hold their own at all against the elite small ball lineups. I've given reasons why it doesn't work and all you give me is generalised stats. There is a reason why our coaching staff go small, they know more than you.

They never play the starters in those situations and the numbers show lineups don't really change in how well they do. They've played the starters w/ Dion for Roberson, and it has the almost the same net rating it does for full games. So the same lineup with Robes would very likely be better.

Again stop looking at the net ratings. Every team and situation will be different. I'm not saying the big lineup wont work with certain teams, but when the likes of GSW, Spurs, Cle and even LAC go small it's a different story.

kdthunderup wrote:

bondom34 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:Go find specific 4th qtr stats about our different lineups against the top teams then we can talk stats. I am very aware of what I'm watching and I have watched our big lineup not being able to hold their own at all against the elite small ball lineups. I've given reasons why it doesn't work and all you give me is generalised stats. There is a reason why our coaching staff go small, they know more than you.

They never play the starters in those situations and the numbers show lineups don't really change in how well they do. They've played the starters w/ Dion for Roberson, and it has the almost the same net rating it does for full games. So the same lineup with Robes would very likely be better.

Again stop looking at the net ratings. Every team and situation will be different.

So you'd rather just not keep score then? Because in the 4th quarter, they've been the same. I don't know what to say, if you just wanted to ignore reality that's fine, but that really isn't adding anything.

bondom34 wrote:

kdthunderup wrote:

bondom34 wrote:They never play the starters in those situations and the numbers show lineups don't really change in how well they do. They've played the starters w/ Dion for Roberson, and it has the almost the same net rating it does for full games. So the same lineup with Robes would very likely be better.

Again stop looking at the net ratings. Every team and situation will be different.

So you'd rather just not keep score then? Because in the 4th quarter, they've been the same. I don't know what to say, if you just wanted to ignore reality that's fine, but that really isn't adding anything.

I dont understand how you dont realise that having both Ibaka and Adams out there against Green and Barnes doesn't work, yes we have a rebounding advantage but everything else we are severely disadvantage at in terms of offense and defense.