Who jumps and falls below OKC this offseason?

[Patches Perry]

This offseason looks like it'll be an active one. I'm following these roster changes and trying to determine how they'll affect OKC

Better than OKC last year, will likely continue to be:
Warriors
Spurs
Rockets
Jazz

Threats:
Minnesota adding Butler - I think they jump OKC
Pelicans having Cousins for a full year - undecided on how well the twin towers model works in 2017
Grizzlies are a tough team to predict every season, but I'll say OKC stays above them
Portland was projected higher last year and disappointed, but I think the potential is still there to win 50

Falling out:
Clippers trading Chris Paul - I think they fall below OKC

So as of right now, I still have OKC 6th, behind the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, Timberwolves.

We'll see how the rest of the off-season shapes the west even more.

[alessandrux]

I think the West is wide open(after GSW,SAS and probably Houston) this year, especially if Utah can't re-sign Hayward (i hope they can).
San Antonio and Golden State are clearly better than us, Houston is probably too, but they lost some depth and do have a lot of injury prone players (Nene, Gordon, Anderson, Paul) who are important.

I think it is too soon to judge the chances otherwise, we have a lot to do to be even as good as last season (we might loose Gibson and Roberson) and many other teams have also lot of holes to fill (Minnesota and New Orleans have to add some shooting, Houston some capable big men and Clippers everything).

I expect, as of right now, that Portland, Denver, Memphis, New Orleans, Dallas, Minnesota, the Clippers and we are all around the same level.
Utah, after suffering the loss of Hayward and Phoenix or the Lakers after aquiring a superstar-talent (Love or George) might join this mix.

[bondom34]

Right now I'd say around where they were last year. I'm not sold Butler adds 17 wins to Minnesota and don't know where I put NOLA yet, but the top 4 look right and after that Portland/Memphis could easily be ahead too. Denver could make a leap in FA.

[Patches Perry]

Right now I'd say around where they were last year. I'm not sold Butler adds 17 wins to Minnesota and don't know where I put NOLA yet, but the top 4 look right and after that Portland/Memphis could easily be ahead too. Denver could make a leap in FA.

Personally, I think Butler alone doesn't add 17 wins, but I believe Lavine was holding them back last year. He didn't really fit in their best style of play. Towns, Butler, Wiggins, Rubio and Dieng is a really solid 5.

I did forget about Hayward and Utah. If he goes to Boston, I can't see Utah staying in the race.

[jambalaya]

I think Griz are much bigger threat than TWolves to jump ahead. it is likely to be only a slight difference between 5-7, maybe 4-8.

[ThunderBolt]

We likely stay about the same but I can see SAS and Houston being significantly better. I still think SA will do something in the FA market.

[itzmrgigglez]

GIVEN GSW,Spurs and Rockets stay above OKC.

Everything else is an unknown. Russ could play smarter this season because he won't be chasing a triple double average and hopefully Donovan gets better at the line ups around him with whoever we get this.

Jazz have to retain Hayward
Blazers have to do something
Clippers miss playoffs ( Wolves come in their place)
Memphis is Memphis

[jambalaya]

Memphis is either Memphis with injuries or without, Griz as is or with change.

[Dadouv47]

More or less the same but it's way too soon to make conclusions. Free agency didn't started yet

1. We don't know who will stay, come or leave OKC.
2. T-Wolves are being overlooked, but if they can make some upgrade on PG position (or their bench), they could be dangerous for us.
3. Free agency for the Jazz will be huge. But they will probably still be way better than us.
4. Portland and NOLA could improve a lot (or not)
5. We don't even know if the clippers are going to have a good team next year. If Blake stays and Lowry signs for them, they will still be better than us.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Worst case for OKC-

1- GS
2- SA
3- Houston
4- Jazz retain Hayward and Hill
5- Minny still has $20M in cap space and lands Ibaka.
6- Denver pulls off a S&T for Blake and resigns Gallinari
7- NOLA adds Jeff Teague to replace Jrue and comes up with an offense that has Cousins dropping 3s like Steph Curry. Cousins shot 37% from 3 last year with NOLA.
8- Memphis stays healthy
9- Portland turns Crabbe with some combination of their picks this year and future picks into a quality PF, maybe Ryan Anderson as an assist to a S&T that sends Millsap to Houston.
10- Phoexix adds Tyreke Evans, Bogut and Blake and they all stay healthy along with Bledsoe.
11- Sacramento sees Buddy Hield become Steph Curry, WCS becomes DeAndre Jordan after they won the overpay Iguodala and Millsap sweepstakes.
12- OKC loses Roberson and Taj in FA
13- Lakers have no chance to pass OKC
14- Clippers go total rebuild and end up with the top pick then sign LeBron, PG13 and Russ next off-season.


Realistically, if we assume that Kanter is staying and Roberson and Taj are gone OKC isn't anywhere near a playoff team. Their starting 5 last year of Russ, Dipo, Roberson, Taj and Adams was +12 points per 100 possessions. We all know their bench sucked. If you replace Roberson and Taj with Sabonis and Singler/McDermott/Grant/Ferguson it's going to be a 0 point unit at best. Last year Russ, Dipo, McDermott, Taj and Adams was a 0 per 100 possessions.

[bondom34]

lol

And Blake has split in half.

[slick_watts]

lets be real. thunder were a 1.0 srs team with superman westbrook playing 2800 minutes out of his mind with no injuries. they'll likely be fighting a step back from westbrook of some magnitude from the start. if they lose taj gibson (likely), that's another step back. thunder had a negative MOV before the trade deadline. taj was an important acquisition. if the thunder don't find a taker for kanter and also lose andre roberson, that's a big step back.

where are the steps forward? primarily with young players. jerami grant, alex abrines, domantas sabonis and, to a lessor extent, steven adams and victor oladipo. mcdermott seems like a lost cause to me. it's going to take a lot to even break even with last year should we lose gibson and roberson.

1.0 srs puts them anywhere from 5th seed to out of the playoff picture, depending on the relative strength of the conference.

for me, we're already losing something with a return to orbit from westbrook and gibson being gone. what happens with andre roberson and kanter will do a lot to define the rest of the outlook. grant, abrines, sabonis, collectively, won't offset losing roberson imo if it happens. adams and oladipo are candidates for break-out, but adams plateaued a bit last year. i'm hopeful for oladipo.

[Andre Roberstan]

lets be real. thunder were a 1.0 srs team with superman westbrook playing 2800 minutes out of his mind with no injuries. they'll likely be fighting a step back from westbrook of some magnitude from the start. if they lose taj gibson (likely), that's another step back. thunder had a negative MOV before the trade deadline. taj was an important acquisition. if the thunder don't find a taker for kanter and also lose andre roberson, that's a big step back.

where are the steps forward? primarily with young players. jerami grant, alex abrines, domantas sabonis and, to a lessor extent, steven adams and victor oladipo. mcdermott seems like a lost cause to me. it's going to take a lot to even break even with last year should we lose gibson and roberson.

1.0 srs puts them anywhere from 5th seed to out of the playoff picture, depending on the relative strength of the conference.

for me, we're already losing something with a return to orbit from westbrook and gibson being gone. what happens with andre roberson and kanter will do a lot to define the rest of the outlook. grant, abrines, sabonis, collectively, won't offset losing roberson imo if it happens. adams and oladipo are candidates for break-out, but adams plateaued a bit last year. i'm hopeful for oladipo.

I'm honestly more hopeful for Adams than Oladipo if we're putting some shooting around him.

[slick_watts]

lets be real. thunder were a 1.0 srs team with superman westbrook playing 2800 minutes out of his mind with no injuries. they'll likely be fighting a step back from westbrook of some magnitude from the start. if they lose taj gibson (likely), that's another step back. thunder had a negative MOV before the trade deadline. taj was an important acquisition. if the thunder don't find a taker for kanter and also lose andre roberson, that's a big step back.

where are the steps forward? primarily with young players. jerami grant, alex abrines, domantas sabonis and, to a lessor extent, steven adams and victor oladipo. mcdermott seems like a lost cause to me. it's going to take a lot to even break even with last year should we lose gibson and roberson.

1.0 srs puts them anywhere from 5th seed to out of the playoff picture, depending on the relative strength of the conference.

for me, we're already losing something with a return to orbit from westbrook and gibson being gone. what happens with andre roberson and kanter will do a lot to define the rest of the outlook. grant, abrines, sabonis, collectively, won't offset losing roberson imo if it happens. adams and oladipo are candidates for break-out, but adams plateaued a bit last year. i'm hopeful for oladipo.

I'm honestly more hopeful for Adams than Oladipo if we're putting some shooting around him.

i wouldn't begrudge that. i think adams would be more useful in that case, and oladipo would be more useful if he didn't play 40% of his minutes with the worst bench group in the league. they're both better than they showed last year imo. but i'm not sure a leap is still realistically in the cards for adams. oladipo's rankings on defense metrics is really encouraging.

[bondom34]

I don't think we see that statisitcal production from Russ again. But I also don't think he's going to suddenly become a less impactful player, his APM numbers weren't even career best this year. Expecting a drop there is hoping to be disappointed.

[slick_watts]

I don't think we see that statisitcal production from Russ again. But I also don't think he's going to suddenly become a less impactful player, his APM numbers weren't even career best this year. Expecting a drop there is hoping to be disappointed.

yeah i'll put his 30/10 season 40%+ usage and whatever else ahead of the < 1.0 difference in orpm between this season and last season. you honestly believe westbrook was less impactful this year than last year? really?

[bondom34]

I don't think we see that statisitcal production from Russ again. But I also don't think he's going to suddenly become a less impactful player, his APM numbers weren't even career best this year. Expecting a drop there is hoping to be disappointed.

yeah i'll put his 30/10 season 40%+ usage and whatever else ahead of the < 1.0 difference in orpm between this season and last season. you honestly believe westbrook was less impactful this year than last year? really?

RPM is heavily box score influenced, so the 30/10 was pulling that RPM waaaaay up. His single year RAPM dropped a full point. I think his box score numbers were better and he was at his peak, but I don't think his impact is something he can't replicate, even if he's not averaging a triple double. Not too hard a concept.

[slick_watts]

I don't think we see that statisitcal production from Russ again. But I also don't think he's going to suddenly become a less impactful player, his APM numbers weren't even career best this year. Expecting a drop there is hoping to be disappointed.

yeah i'll put his 30/10 season 40%+ usage and whatever else ahead of the < 1.0 difference in orpm between this season and last season. you honestly believe westbrook was less impactful this year than last year? really?

RPM is heavily box score influenced, so the 30/10 was pulling that RPM waaaaay up. His single year RAPM dropped a full point. I think his box score numbers were better and he was at his peak, but I don't think his impact is something he can't replicate, even if he's not averaging a triple double. Not too hard a concept.

and single year rapm is heavily influenced by lineup and opposition noise and collinearity and all the rest, i dunno why you pay much attention to single year rapm. i've seen daniel myers and J.E. himself comment on its dubiousness.

is normal multi-year rapm still available? would be curious on that.

[bondom34]

yeah i'll put his 30/10 season 40%+ usage and whatever else ahead of the < 1.0 difference in orpm between this season and last season. you honestly believe westbrook was less impactful this year than last year? really?

RPM is heavily box score influenced, so the 30/10 was pulling that RPM waaaaay up. His single year RAPM dropped a full point. I think his box score numbers were better and he was at his peak, but I don't think his impact is something he can't replicate, even if he's not averaging a triple double. Not too hard a concept.

and single year rapm is heavily influenced by lineup and opposition noise and collinearity and all the rest, i dunno why you pay much attention to single year rapm. i've seen daniel myers and J.E. himself comment on its dubiousness.

is normal multi-year rapm still available? would be curious on that.

JE didn't post that, and that would be heavily influence by prior years' data. But I don't think it's some outlandish claim that having better box score numbers doesn't equate to better players.

[slick_watts]

JE didn't post that, and that would be heavily influence by prior years' data. But I don't think it's some outlandish claim that having better box score numbers doesn't equate to better players.

we're not talking about comparing shane battier to kobe bryant, this is russell westbrook to russell westbrook.

in this case, i do think it's an outlandish claim. westbrook's boxscore productivity on offense is better across the board this season compared to last with the exception of a small difference in orb%. the biggest difference is (wait for it) the quality of his teammates.

but anyway, you'd really suggest based on single year npi rapm that westbrook had a more impactful year last season than this season? you're making that claim, here?