Over/under for wins for OKC is 51.5???

[sleestak33]

This is the line Vegas set for win totals for the Thunder this year and while I haven't made a bet on any sporting event since a bad run in college cost me a couple of grand and I quit permanently this almost makes me want to come out of retirement. OKC won 47 last year without George and Anthony and I would have to think they're worth more than 5 wins. I'm guessing they will win around 57-58.

[spearsy23]

I'd said in the other thread I thought around 50 sounded right. I think 51.5 is probably the perfect spot, no chance I'd be comfortable betting on it. We didn't play at a 47 win pace last year, Russ went bananas at a historic level in 'clutch time' and that's sure to regress towards the mean.

[hardenASG13]

This is the line Vegas set for win totals for the Thunder this year and while I haven't made a bet on any sporting event since a bad run in college cost me a couple of grand and I quit permanently this almost makes me want to come out of retirement. OKC won 47 last year without George and Anthony and I would have to think they're worth more than 5 wins. I'm guessing they will win around 57-58.

Certainly seems low, with all their big 3 having something to prove. I don't think they take many nights off from an effort standpoint, which would be the only reason they shouldn't be in the mid 50s-60 wins as long as they stay healthy.

Those commenting how melo only added a game to their projected wins should be especially high on betting the over. While that is shockingly true, their title odds have gone from 40 to 1 immediately after the Paul George trade (which I jumped on, sadly only for $25 in anticipation they were going to go after another star at the deadline), and now with the acquisition of Anthony and time for people to take notice they are between 12-16:1 depending on the site. They are undervalued. Even at 16:1, how do you not throw $25-$100 on them if your going to commit to watching the season. Very nice low risk, high reward bet. I had $150 on them at 18:1 when they blew the warriors series. That game 6 was brutal to watch! Also had $100 on the Atlanta falcons at 8:1 in the super bowl last year (bet before the playoffs). Due to win one ha

[sleestak33]

This is the line Vegas set for win totals for the Thunder this year and while I haven't made a bet on any sporting event since a bad run in college cost me a couple of grand and I quit permanently this almost makes me want to come out of retirement. OKC won 47 last year without George and Anthony and I would have to think they're worth more than 5 wins. I'm guessing they will win around 57-58.

Certainly seems low, with all their big 3 having something to prove. I don't think they take many nights off from an effort standpoint, which would be the only reason they shouldn't be in the mid 50s-60 wins as long as they stay healthy.

Those commenting how melo only added a game to their projected wins should be especially high on betting the over. While that is shockingly true, their title odds have gone from 40 to 1 immediately after the Paul George trade (which I jumped on, sadly only for $25 in anticipation they were going to go after another star at the deadline), and now with the acquisition of Anthony and time for people to take notice they are between 12-16:1 depending on the site. They are undervalued. Even at 16:1, how do you not throw $25-$100 on them if your going to commit to watching the season. Very nice low risk, high reward bet. I had $150 on them at 18:1 when they blew the warriors series. That game 6 was brutal to watch! Also had $100 on the Atlanta falcons at 8:1 in the super bowl last year (bet before the playoffs). Due to win one ha

An interesting fact: 97% of teams in the NBA playoffs that have had a 3-1 series lead have gone on to win so that was truly a colossal and historical choke job. Yeah assuming the big 3 can stay healthy most of the year I don't see how they won't win at least 55. They will be able to coast against most teams with that amount of offensive firepower and I suspect they will be able to play less minutes which will help the overall health of the team.

[getrichordie]

Let us not forget that we are still in the Western Conference. Lots of teams have made improvements as well and it’s going to take time for our team to gel. Lot of new pieces.

Still need a competent guy who can play back up 5.


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[sleestak33]

I'd said in the other thread I thought around 50 sounded right. I think 51.5 is probably the perfect spot, no chance I'd be comfortable betting on it. We didn't play at a 47 win pace last year, Russ went bananas at a historic level in 'clutch time' and that's sure to regress towards the mean.

I would have to think OKC's ability to win close games has been enhanced dramatically now that they have 3 elite scorers so while you're correct about the 47 wins being above their ceiling last year a bit I don't think it's a stretch to think they should win 8-10 more games this year. Assuming the big 3 can stay healthy I would guess right at 57 wins.

[Pillendreher]

I think it's reasonable to think that it might take us a couple of weeks to really 'gel' which might result in us losing a couple of games we normally wouldn't lose.This is our schedule over the first 20 games:

1x Boston Celtics
2x Chicago Bulls
2x Dallas Mavericks
1x Denver Nuggets
1x Detroit Pistons
1x Golden State Warriors
1x Indiana Pacers
1x Los Angeles Clippers
1x Milwaukee Bucks
2x Minnesota Timberwolves
1x New Orleans Pelicans
1x New York Knicks
1x Orlando Magic
1x Portland Trail Blazers
1x Sacramento Kings
1x San Antonio Spurs
1x Utah Jazz

Even if we struggle initially, I don't think the struggle will be that bad. Most of those games I would feel comfortable about winning with last season's team, let alone this year's upgraded version.

CARMELO projects this start over the first 20 games:

vs NYK: W
@ UTA: W
vs MIN: W
vs IND: W
@ MIN: L
@ CHI: W
@ MIL:W
vs BOS: W
@ PDX: W
@ SAC: W
@ DEN: L
vs LAC: W
vs DAL: W
vs CHI: W
@ SAS: L
@ NOP: W
vs GSW: Draw
vs DET: W
@ DAL: W
@ ORL: W

So let's say we lose to the Warriors (which is totally reasonable). That makes us going 16-4 to start the season.

On one hand, that seems a little bit too optimistic. On the other hand: We play a ton of games versus teams that Russ alone wth a couple defenders around him could simply overpower. Even if we still haven't figured out how to the run the offense so that the team plays at its best, having these 3 guys should be more than enough to take care of some of these teams, even if they still struggle playing together offensively.

[hardenASG13]

Let us not forget that we are still in the Western Conference. Lots of teams have made improvements as well and it’s going to take time for our team to gel. Lot of new pieces.

Still need a competent guy who can play back up 5.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

True, but in that sense some of the other teams out west need to gel as well (houston,Minnesota, denver, clippers) while Utah and Memphis have gotten worse. Also due to how stacked the west is, okc will probably have to win 55 plus to get into the 2nd or 3rd seed, which they should be highly motivated to do, as to avoid the warriors until the wcf.

There aren't too many teams with great backup centers, okc isn't the only one with that problem. Also, a little off topic, but how about taking a shot on Anthony Randolph for that role. By all accounts he's been great in Europe, has matured from a bball standpoint, and is still a big-time athlete and a stretch big. Seems he could be javale Mcgee 2.0, who also can shoot 3s. He'd probably come cheap too, and said he'd come back if given a defined role. There'd be minutes for him.
Randolph on d
https://youtu.be/t32pBdvkjd8
Offense
https://youtu.be/iggsNCftIUI

While just highlights, his numbers matched as he was great in the playoff rounds of eurobasket this year when given extended minutes.

[Dadouv47]

Let us not forget that we are still in the Western Conference. Lots of teams have made improvements as well and it’s going to take time for our team to gel. Lot of new pieces.

Still need a competent guy who can play back up 5.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

This.

From 47 wins to 51 sounds a very small improvement, but with the way the West improved, it's still significant.

I also fear we can lose some key players for some games/weeks (hope nothing serious). With our small bench, it will cost us a lot of wins.

I prefer betting on OKC on tough games and during playoffs than regular season under/over.

[NetsWorld]

Considering the easiness of our schedule, would not be surprised if OKC were to go 7-0 fist several games.

[Pillendreher]

Considering the easiness of our schedule, would not be surprised if OKC were to go 7-0 fist several games.

Expanding the list I posted a couple of posts ago, this is our schedule through the end of December with the expected result projected by CARMELO:

vs NYK: W
@ UTA: W
vs MIN: W
vs IND: W
@ MIN: L
@ CHI: W
@ MIL:W
vs BOS: W
@ PDX: W
@ SAC: W
-------------- 9-1
@ DEN: L
vs LAC: W
vs DAL: W
vs CHI: W
@ SAS: L
@ NOP: W
vs GSW: Draw
vs DET: W
@ DAL: W
@ ORL: W
-------------- 16-4
vs MIN: W
vs SAS: W
vs UTA: W
@ BKN: W
@ MEM: W
vs CHA: W
@ IND: W
@ PHI: W
@ NYK: W
vs DEN: W
-------------- 26-4
vs UTA: W
vs ATL: W
@ UTA: L
vs HOU: W
vs TOR: W
vs MIL: W
vs DAL: W
-------------- 32-5

Now the end-result is of course up for debate, but it seems to me our schedule isn't exactly tough over the first couple of months of season. We could have multiple smaller winning streaks in there.

This might actually help us: Even if we struggle in the beginning, it won't cost us that many games.

EDIT: I just went ahead and checked out the rest of our schedule. So according to CARMELO, we would be favourites in 67 of those 82 games. I'll take that.

[bbms]

This could be the best defensive and most experienced team the Thunder ever had since the move from Seattle. Im betting over 51.5 quite comfortably. Unless the Thunder coast midseason, I think we're in play for 60 wins.

[slick_watts]

51.5 is a larger improvement than you think. professional oddsmakers aren't looking at last season's win total as a baseline, they are looking at things like MOV and other devices that do not factor in 'luck'. although the thunder won 47 games last season, to an oddsmaker they were much closer to a .500 team. the statistical indicators would expect 42 wins.

to me that line is perfect. do not forget that the team also lost taj gibson, victor oladipo, and domantas sabonis. they did not add paul george and carmelo anthony without losing anything. gibson and oladipo both ranked far higher than carmelo anthony on rpm, for example.

[slick_watts]

I'd said in the other thread I thought around 50 sounded right. I think 51.5 is probably the perfect spot, no chance I'd be comfortable betting on it. We didn't play at a 47 win pace last year, Russ went bananas at a historic level in 'clutch time' and that's sure to regress towards the mean.

I would have to think OKC's ability to win close games has been enhanced dramatically now that they have 3 elite scorers so while you're correct about the 47 wins being above their ceiling last year a bit I don't think it's a stretch to think they should win 8-10 more games this year. Assuming the big 3 can stay healthy I would guess right at 57 wins.

winning and losing close games is mostly luck. the best teams just don't get into a lot of close games to begin with.

[bondom34]

I'd guess 51-52 personally, they were closer to a.500 team last year without Russ going crazy in about 10 4th quarters.

[getrichordie]

Let us all pray that Hardaway & Kanter don't go ham on us.

[M2J]

Easily over

[Dadouv47]

Projecting a 50/50 against the warriors is crazy. Even if we have a chance to beat them at home, we all know they will come to play against us to make a statement and give more effort than during some PO games.

[Patches Perry]

47 could have easily been 42 last year if not for Westbrook heroics. I mean, he won a game with a damn near half court shot for crying out loud. He won MVP on the backs of these performances, but the odds are going to show that those were not the norm and are not likely to repeat.

I would have been interested to see what the over/under would have been if not for the George/Melo deals. Surely closer to 42-44. By the time they released the over/unders I think OKC had already traded for George though.

[Patches Perry]

I think OKC is capable of 55 or possibly more, but let's not pretend that there aren't potential chemistry issues here that could really hurt them as well. 51.5 is basically saying they expect OKC to be within the 46-56 win range, which is perfectly reasonable to me.