Over/under for wins for OKC is 51.5???

[Pillendreher]

http://insider.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/21029793/updated-projected-records-win-totals-standings-every-nba-team-2017-18-season-kevin-pelton

4. Oklahoma City Thunder Projected wins: 49.6 Playoffs: 92 percent Adding Carmelo Anthony didn't dramatically change the Thunder's RPM projection, although it did bump them into fourth in the West. CARM-Elo rates Oklahoma City better, projecting an average of 54 wins. That's closer in line with their Vegas over/under 53.5-win total.

Thanks slick_watts.

[dice]

51.5 is a larger improvement than you think. professional oddsmakers aren't looking at last season's win total as a baseline, they are looking at things like MOV and other devices that do not factor in 'luck'. although the thunder won 47 games last season, to an oddsmaker they were much closer to a .500 team. the statistical indicators would expect 42 wins

while oddsmakers might factor in basketball metrics when placing the OPENING line, after a period of time the line adjusts pretty strictly to what people are betting on. and even with the opening line, they're attempting to project betting patterns rather than actual team results

if anything, I would think that the acquisitions of 2 big names in PG and melo would have bettors a bit overzealous as to the team's prospects for winning. given that melo's game is fading and the overlapping scoring roles of the "big 3". so if it was actually vegas's job to make predictions, the over/under would probably be a tad UNDER 51.5

anybody care to give me guesstimate MPG for the new roster? I'd like to make my own projection using RPM data from the past few years

[RunOKC]

IF i had to bet over/under im taking over, but not confidently. Could see us right at 51/52 depending on injuries/chemistry.

[Pillendreher]

anybody care to give me guesstimate MPG for the new roster? I'd like to make my own projection using RPM data from the past few years

Without including Ferguson and Grant, I had them at this for my own little prediction sheet:

Westbrook: 34
Roberson: 30
George: 36
Anthony: 33
Adams: 30
Felton: 16
Abrines: 20
Grant: 15
Patterson: 18
Johnson: 8

[Marcus50]

going for over but it could be messy to start

[dice]

[

anybody care to give me guesstimate MPG for the new roster? I'd like to make my own projection using RPM data from the past few years

Without including Ferguson and Grant, I had them at this for my own little prediction sheet:

Westbrook: 34
Roberson: 30
George: 36
Anthony: 33
Adams: 30
Felton: 16
Abrines: 20
Grant: 15
Patterson: 18
Johnson: 8

i put together a hypothetical minutes distribution for the entire season, assuming each player plays 70 games, there is not a guy capable of being the 3rd point guard currently on the roster, and patterson plays no center:

westbrook - 2500
felton - 1100
3rd point guard injury callup - 350

Roberson - 2100
abrines - 1150
ferguson - 650

George - 2600
grant - 1100
singler - 250

melo - 2350
adams - 2350
Patterson - 1200
Johnson - 1200
collison - 750

look reasonable? is collison really so washed up that an unheralded rookie center would be expected to get significantly more minutes?