Carmelo Anthony's role needs to be adjusted for this team to move forward (defensively) without Roberson
Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:34 pm
Since Donovan ran the George+bench lineup the first time vs Denver on 11/09, Melo's minutes have been restricted to playing with only a handful of guys:
w/ Westbrook: 1265/1308 => 97 %
w/ Adams: 1027/1308 => 79 %
w/ George: 1019/1308 => 78 %
w/ Russ-Adams: 1011/1308 => 77 %
w/ Russ-George-Adams: 807/1308 => 62 %
He's basically been tied to Russ for every single minute he spent on the court; he's been on the floor without him for only one minute per game on average.
The same goes (to some lesser extent) for Adams.
On the season, this is how we've looked with Russ-Anthony-Adams on the floor:
As you can see, Roberson and George were big parts of multiple of those lineups. You can basically classify them as follows:
Out of these lineups, the following (I'm using stats.nba.com for this) rank above average defensively:
And these are the lineups that rank above average offensively:
Combining both offense and defense, the following lineups have outperformed the opponent when on the floor:
And here's to filter for Roberson with Russ-Anthony Adams:
Obviously, this is not working without Roberson out there. The defense just goes to complete ****. Now of course the difference on the defensive end between Roberson and the other guys we've played in these lineups is not more than 15 points per 100 possessions, but it is reasonable to assume that we won't be able to find that kind of defensive player at the trade deadline and would still probably look at at least 105 DRtG or worse with a Roberson replacement. Now you can go and see 'Well, if we crack 110 ORtG, we'd still be fine', but I would argue that that assumption is a dangerous one: Our offense is very dependent on Russ and especially on Russ, Melo and George making mid-rangers while Adams grabs their bricks. That is quite a volatile approach. When you enter the postseason, you want to be able to compete at the highest level on both ends of the floor.
So what to do about this? Roberson ain't walking through that door this season. He's not gonna be able to save our defense. Russ ain't going anywhere. So do both George and Adams. Unless Presti is able to fleece another GM for a Robes equivalent on the defensive end, the one piece we have left is Melo.
Anthony's defense leaves a lot to be desired. At this point of his career, I'm not really blaming him for that with his regressed athleticism, but it is true nonetheless. Covering for Russ is one thing. We've been able to do that for years. But also covering for Melo while adding a Roberson replacement is close to impossible, I fear.
I'm not advocating for Anthony to get benched. But we have to adjust our rotations. We have to play way more Patterson with the starters: Roberson-Adams has a 96.7 DRtG and Patterson-Adams 96.9. Of course the sample size is quite small because Patterson keeps getting benched by the half-wit, but it is still quite obvious that Patterson-Adams works really well when they get the opportunity to play together.
To survice this defensively, Patterson-Adams needs to get at least 15 minutes a night. This means less minutes for Melo with the starters (unless he plays the 3), but it also gives him the opportunity to have another shot creator out there with the bench.
w/ Westbrook: 1265/1308 => 97 %
w/ Adams: 1027/1308 => 79 %
w/ George: 1019/1308 => 78 %
w/ Russ-Adams: 1011/1308 => 77 %
w/ Russ-George-Adams: 807/1308 => 62 %
He's basically been tied to Russ for every single minute he spent on the court; he's been on the floor without him for only one minute per game on average.
The same goes (to some lesser extent) for Adams.
On the season, this is how we've looked with Russ-Anthony-Adams on the floor:
As you can see, Roberson and George were big parts of multiple of those lineups. You can basically classify them as follows:
Spoiler:
Out of these lineups, the following (I'm using stats.nba.com for this) rank above average defensively:
Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Roberson-Huestis-Anthony-Adams
And these are the lineups that rank above average offensively:
Russ-Huestis-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Ferguson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-George-Anthony-Grant-Adams
Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Abrines-George-Anthony-Adams
Russ-Felton-George-Anthony-Adams
Combining both offense and defense, the following lineups have outperformed the opponent when on the floor:
Russ-Roberson-George-Anthony-Adams: 110.1|95.9|+14.2 (539 minutes)
Russ-George-Huestis-Anthony-Adams: 117.5|109.1|+8.5 (71 minutes)
Russ-Felton-George-Anthony-Adams: 106.6|106.2|+0.4 (46 minutes)
And here's to filter for Roberson with Russ-Anthony Adams:
Roberson ON: 108.6|97.0|+11.5 (543 minutes)
Roberson OFF: 111.8|114.1|-2.3 (468 minutes)
Obviously, this is not working without Roberson out there. The defense just goes to complete ****. Now of course the difference on the defensive end between Roberson and the other guys we've played in these lineups is not more than 15 points per 100 possessions, but it is reasonable to assume that we won't be able to find that kind of defensive player at the trade deadline and would still probably look at at least 105 DRtG or worse with a Roberson replacement. Now you can go and see 'Well, if we crack 110 ORtG, we'd still be fine', but I would argue that that assumption is a dangerous one: Our offense is very dependent on Russ and especially on Russ, Melo and George making mid-rangers while Adams grabs their bricks. That is quite a volatile approach. When you enter the postseason, you want to be able to compete at the highest level on both ends of the floor.
So what to do about this? Roberson ain't walking through that door this season. He's not gonna be able to save our defense. Russ ain't going anywhere. So do both George and Adams. Unless Presti is able to fleece another GM for a Robes equivalent on the defensive end, the one piece we have left is Melo.
Anthony's defense leaves a lot to be desired. At this point of his career, I'm not really blaming him for that with his regressed athleticism, but it is true nonetheless. Covering for Russ is one thing. We've been able to do that for years. But also covering for Melo while adding a Roberson replacement is close to impossible, I fear.
I'm not advocating for Anthony to get benched. But we have to adjust our rotations. We have to play way more Patterson with the starters: Roberson-Adams has a 96.7 DRtG and Patterson-Adams 96.9. Of course the sample size is quite small because Patterson keeps getting benched by the half-wit, but it is still quite obvious that Patterson-Adams works really well when they get the opportunity to play together.
To survice this defensively, Patterson-Adams needs to get at least 15 minutes a night. This means less minutes for Melo with the starters (unless he plays the 3), but it also gives him the opportunity to have another shot creator out there with the bench.
