2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

[Andre Roberstan]

Starting a new thread per Dom's suggestion.

Discuss

[ThunderBolt]

This thread name is fantastic.

[slick_watts]

really?

Except Westbook led offenses have been better than Irving and Lillard ones still. Defenses haven't adapted. Jeez.

Despite Kyrie's way better individual efficiency, Boston's offensive numbers are worse than last year IIRC. Interesting case study there in individual efficiency vs. team efficiency—I think people generally overrate individual efficiency unless you're talking about high-volume playmakers.

IT was crazy good last year. and they replaced amir johnson and kelly olynyk with aron baynes and marcus morris.

individual efficiency is important. team efficiency is too but obviously you have to control for other factors and cross team comparisons become murky and complicated. the notion that westbrook's offense is better than so-and-so's as a deconstruction of the individual comparison is missing the forest for the trees.

[bondom34]

Except Westbook led offenses have been better than Irving and Lillard ones still. Defenses haven't adapted. Jeez.

i'm talking about westbrook as an individual, not his team. i'm talking about this season, not last season. there are major differences in league trends from last year to this year alone that i believe must be part of the conversation. league 3Pr is up from just last year, and FTr is down. bad for players like russell westbrook.

And I'm talking about okc having a better offense than Boston or pdx when he's out there.

That's not a trend that's a fact that holds. Its just incorrect to say this

[Andre Roberstan]

really?

Except Westbook led offenses have been better than Irving and Lillard ones still. Defenses haven't adapted. Jeez.

Despite Kyrie's way better individual efficiency, Boston's offensive numbers are worse than last year IIRC. Interesting case study there in individual efficiency vs. team efficiency—I think people generally overrate individual efficiency unless you're talking about high-volume playmakers.

IT was crazy good last year. and they replaced amir johnson and kelly olynyk with aron baynes and marcus morris.

individual efficiency is important. team efficiency is too but obviously you have to control for other factors and cross team comparisons become murky and complicated. the notion that westbrook's offense is better than so-and-so's as a deconstruction of the individual comparison is missing the forest for the trees.

Kyrie's been nutso this year too.

I've seen some interesting discussion here and there on basketball Twitter regarding how we value guys who are low-efficiency but generally tend to boost their teams' numbers when they're on the court. Think as time goes on we'll have more ways to measure the impact of high-usage volume shooters.

[bondom34]

Also best thread title imaginable.

[slick_watts]

Except Westbook led offenses have been better than Irving and Lillard ones still. Defenses haven't adapted. Jeez.

i'm talking about westbrook as an individual, not his team. i'm talking about this season, not last season. there are major differences in league trends from last year to this year alone that i believe must be part of the conversation. league 3Pr is up from just last year, and FTr is down. bad for players like russell westbrook.

And I'm talking about okc having a better offense than Boston or pdx when he's out there.

That's not a trend that's a fact that holds. Its just incorrect to say this

it's a worthless fact in a discussion of individual performance without the additional context of teammate contributions, differences in teams, etc. i think you use it more often as an obfuscation technique rather than an honest method of comparing one player to another.

the thunder are barely league average eFG with westbrook on the floor this season. they are league average TOV%. just below average on FT/FGA. you know what they are elite at when westbrook is in the game? offensive rebounding, where they blow the league to pieces.

now i wouldn't put it past you to make the glib suggestion that westbrook is responsible for steven adams being one of the best offensive rebounders in league history when sharing the court with him. but this is what i mean by context being important when a conversation about individuals is taken to the team level.

[bondom34]

i'm talking about westbrook as an individual, not his team. i'm talking about this season, not last season. there are major differences in league trends from last year to this year alone that i believe must be part of the conversation. league 3Pr is up from just last year, and FTr is down. bad for players like russell westbrook.

And I'm talking about okc having a better offense than Boston or pdx when he's out there.

That's not a trend that's a fact that holds. Its just incorrect to say this

it's a worthless fact in a discussion of individual performance without the additional context of teammate contributions, differences in teams, etc. i think you use it more often as an obfuscation technique rather than an honest method of comparing one player to another.

the thunder are barely league average eFG with westbrook on the floor this season. they are league average TOV%. just below average on FT/FGA. you know what they are elite at when westbrook is in the game? offensive rebounding, where they blow the league to pieces.

now i wouldn't put it past you to make the glib suggestion that westbrook is responsible for steven adams being one of the best offensive rebounders in league history when sharing the court with him. but this is what i mean by context being important when a conversation about individuals is taken to the team level.

I would say he's why Adams is getting hos looks. As history has shown. And I wouldn't put it past you to say otherwise. I mean we've had tons of information saying what you claim is false yet here we are. I don't care about individual numbers. I care if the team is performing at a higher level due to a player.

Westbrook does that.

And using individual efficiency to measure team ability is lol.

Oh and there was also a Stanford study on missed shots and o rebounding as well. It specifically noted Westbrook. Will have to find.

[slick_watts]

I would say he's why Adams is getting hos looks. As history has shown.

adams is an excellent pnr player and he and westbrook do have fantastic rapport. but adams is an elite rebounder and makes the team an elite offensive rebounding team whether or not westbrook is in the game.

And I wouldn't put it past you to say otherwise. I mean we've had tons of information saying what you claim is false yet here we are. I don't care about individual numbers. I care if the team is performing at a higher level due to a player.

Westbrook does that.

you are pettifogging this discussion. assigning credit to westbrook unilaterally. westbrook is a great player offensively, but there's no denying that his performance and impact have been markedly different this season, and in view of league trends that are particularly exclusionary to him, wouldn't you say this is a meaningful discussion to have?

in a league with lower FTr and 1/3 of all shot attempts three pointers, westbrook currently is existing as an outlier as a pg with ts% so low and usage so high. since he's on a five year, $200mm extension and the leauge shows no signs of slowing down its current trajectory, it's a valid discussion to ask whether or not the commitment to him will be impaired.

i'm more than willing to include team performance in the discussion but only if it's done contextually. assigning unilateral credit to russell westbrook for the 115pp100 offense with him in the game adds nothing to the talk.

[bondom34]

I would say he's why Adams is getting hos looks. As history has shown.

adams is an excellent pnr player and he and westbrook do have fantastic rapport. but adams is an elite rebounder and makes the team an elite offensive rebounding team whether or not westbrook is in the game.

And I wouldn't put it past you to say otherwise. I mean we've had tons of information saying what you claim is false yet here we are. I don't care about individual numbers. I care if the team is performing at a higher level due to a player.

Westbrook does that.

you are pettifogging this discussion. assigning credit to westbrook unilaterally. westbrook is a great player offensively, but there's no denying that his performance and impact have been markedly different this season, and in view of league trends that are particularly exclusionary to him, wouldn't you say this is a meaningful discussion to have?

in a league with lower FTr and 1/3 of all shot attempts three pointers, westbrook currently is existing as an outlier as a pg with ts% so low and usage so high. since he's on a five year, $200mm extension and the leauge shows no signs of slowing down its current trajectory, it's a valid discussion to ask whether or not the commitment to him will be impaired.

i'm more than willing to include team performance in the discussion but only if it's done contextually. assigning unilateral credit to russell westbrook for the 115pp100 offense with him in the game adds nothing to the talk.

quote="bondom34"]

It's that bolded part that matters in this conversation, because we are talking about the best of the best. I don't see how you can rationally say that missing a lot of shots doesn't matter when comparing Westbrook to other elite players who also create for teammates while making more of their shots.

All I said is that 51.1 TS% is a weakness in Westbrook's POY resume. I didn't say TS% was the be-all, end-all of efficiency or that turnovers don't matter or whatever else. I just pointed out his really low TS% relative to other candidates as an indicator of an area where he lags the other candidates. I'm not convinced that him missing all those shots is irrelevant.

It is however relevant if his misses aren't harming the offense to much extent. And if those misses are converted at a higher than normal rate due to O rebounding. From 2015-2016, but still relevant:

https://web.stanford.edu/class/stats50/files/82454.pdf

Drawn from the model’s results [see Appendix table 2 -3 for summarized results], table 1 indicates that point
guard Russell Westbrook’s impact on the Oklahoma City Thunder’s chance of collecting an offensive rebound while on the court during
an offensive possession is significantly positive compared to an average NBA player, most notably on missed shots between 0-8FT and
23+FT while ranking in the top-12 in four shot distance categories. Known for a style of play that is often criticized as reckless and
detrimental towards the team while on offense, the model’s results suggest that “Maniac Russ’s” style of play actually increases the
chance of an offensive rebound and consequentially increases the Thunder’s expected point value during a possession. On closer review,
this should not be surprising and highlight, despite high volume shot attempts, the value Westbrook’s style of play adds to the Thunder.
In general, Westbrook is one of the more aggressive dribbledrive
guards in the NBA and excels at penetrating and pressuring
defenses to react to his actions. This style of play can result in several
actions that, although may lead to a missed shot, actually put the offense
in a better position to capture an offensive rebound off a missed shot. As
stated earlier, driving into the lane provokes help defenders, which can
result in 1) clear paths to the rebound for teammates if Westbrook
attempts and misses the shot or 2) puts Westbrook in the immediate
vicinity of the ball making one more body the defense must overcome to
collect the rebound. Additionally, by pressuring and collapsing the
defense, Westbrook can opt to pass out towards the perimeter to likely
open teammates for a shot that, even if missed, has the second highest
probability of an offensive rebound.

Yep, he misses shots. But those aren't really killing an offense like most guys are. (Sorry for formatting).[/quote]
Also you aren't using team offense. You are literally saying the NBA padded him by because he can't shoot. When his offenses have been better than the guys you name. Its actually reached new levels of illogical.

[bondom34]

If the argument is he isn't a shooter I agree. But he's at worst the 3rd best pg in the league in a down year and has a team running a better offense with Melo as a near 25 usage guy than the players being named here. Its laughable.

This literally is the offensive version of sleestak arguing Roberson and his defense becuase Harden scored 35 points

[slick_watts]

so this paper is drawing conclusions based on this data from one season? how is it dealing with collinearity? westbrook shared the court a ton with two elite offensive rebounders (who are elite offensive rebounders with and without him). westbrook himself probably impacts the offensive rebounding slightly relative to others at his position by virtue of his own offensive rebounding. but this broad impact seems like a flimsy conclusion to draw on only one season of play by play data.

Also you aren't using team offense. You are literally saying the NBA padded him by because he can't shoot. When his offenses have been better than the guys you name. Its actually reached new levels of illogical.

the offense is elite with westbrook in the game because of offensive rebounding being like 7% better than league average, mostly because of adams. westbrook is an elite offensive player, also. i'm not saying he isn't. but you're ignoring the changes he's experienced this year in the face of the league trends that are not supporting many players with his play style. it's an important conversation to have, and every nba fan has noticed it.

[Andre Roberstan]

Confirmation of what we already knew:

Read on Twitter

[bondom34]

so this paper is drawing conclusions based on this data from one season? how is it dealing with collinearity? westbrook shared the court a ton with two elite offensive rebounders (who are elite offensive rebounders with and without him). westbrook himself probably impacts the offensive rebounding slightly relative to others at his position by virtue of his own offensive rebounding. but this broad impact seems like a flimsy conclusion to draw on only one season of play by play data.
Lik

Also you aren't using team offense. You are literally saying the NBA padded him by because he can't shoot. When his offenses have been better than the guys you name. Its actually reached new levels of illogical.

the offense is elite with westbrook in the game because of offensive rebounding being like 7% better than league average, mostly because of adams. westbrook is an elite offensive player, also. i'm not saying he isn't. but you're ignoring the changes he's experienced this year in the face of the league trends that are not supporting many players with his play style. it's an important conversation to have, and every nba fan has noticed it.

This literally is sleestak saying Dre isn't a good defender because harden scored a lot while ignoring team defense. I'm amazed.

Also per Shams.

Read on Twitter

[Andre Roberstan]

so this paper is drawing conclusions based on this data from one season? how is it dealing with collinearity? westbrook shared the court a ton with two elite offensive rebounders (who are elite offensive rebounders with and without him). westbrook himself probably impacts the offensive rebounding slightly relative to others at his position by virtue of his own offensive rebounding. but this broad impact seems like a flimsy conclusion to draw on only one season of play by play data.

Also you aren't using team offense. You are literally saying the NBA padded him by because he can't shoot. When his offenses have been better than the guys you name. Its actually reached new levels of illogical.

the offense is elite with westbrook in the game because of offensive rebounding being like 7% better than league average, mostly because of adams. westbrook is an elite offensive player, also. i'm not saying he isn't. but you're ignoring the changes he's experienced this year in the face of the league trends that are not supporting many players with his play style. it's an important conversation to have, and every nba fan has noticed it.

Probably also worth noting that a lot of guys who rely on going to the rack believe that the league is protecting shooters more than drivers (Bron being the most prominent member of this group). May induce some different emphasis from reffing crews.

[slick_watts]

If the argument is he isn't a shooter I agree. But he's at worst the 3rd best pg in the league in a down year and has a team running a better offense with Melo as a near 25 usage guy than the players being named here.

irving, kemba, and lillard all have compelling cases ahead of westbrook offensively this season. these three are benefiting a ton from the league's changing trajectory for offenses and defenses.

This literally is the offensive version of sleestak arguing Roberson and his defense becuase Harden scored 35 points

and yet you were the one joining sleestak suggesting andre roberson be benched for alex abrines. because abrines' rpm was better for like a week.

you're missing the forest for the trees on this discussion just like you were on that one.

[slick_watts]

Probably also worth noting that a lot of guys who rely on going to the rack believe that the league is protecting shooters more than drivers (Bron being the most prominent member of this group). May induce some different emphasis from reffing crews.

definitely agree. westbrook does have a case for not getting the whistle as much, in a seeming arbitrary change in officiating. melo's tried to make forays into the paint also for stretches and has not gotten the benefit of the whistle he is used to.

[bondom34]

If the argument is he isn't a shooter I agree. But he's at worst the 3rd best pg in the league in a down year and has a team running a better offense with Melo as a near 25 usage guy than the players being named here.

irving, kemba, and lillard all have compelling cases ahead of westbrook offensively this season. these three are benefiting a ton from the league's changing trajectory for offenses and defenses.

This literally is the offensive version of sleestak arguing Roberson and his defense becuase Harden scored 35 points

and yet you were the one joining sleestak suggesting andre roberson be benched for alex abrines. because abrines' rpm was better for like a week.

you're missing the forest for the trees on this discussion just like you were on that one.

Except they don't. And I said that for about a week and realized I was wrong

You're literally saying he's been passed by guts he's well better than. We know you don't like him. You don't need to use bad logic to do so

[bondom34]

If the argument is he isn't a shooter I agree. But he's at worst the 3rd best pg in the league in a down year and has a team running a better offense with Melo as a near 25 usage guy than the players being named here.

irving, kemba, and lillard all have compelling cases ahead of westbrook offensively this season. these three are benefiting a ton from the league's changing trajectory for offenses and defenses.

This literally is the offensive version of sleestak arguing Roberson and his defense becuase Harden scored 35 points

and yet you were the one joining sleestak suggesting andre roberson be benched for alex abrines. because abrines' rpm was better for like a week.

you're missing the forest for the trees on this discussion just like you were on that one.

Except they don't. And I said that for about a week and realized I was wrong

You're literally saying he's been passed by guts he's well better than. We know you don't like him. You don't need to use bad logic to do so

[bondom34]

And I love that ypubact like I thought Dre was suddenly awful when he had a poor start to the year too and I changed when I saw he was helping the team.