2017-2018 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread Part Deux: Follow the Melo Brick Road

Post #741 » by **bondom34** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 4:52 pm

wco81 wrote:OKC is #7 now with a game left.

They've played well against the Warriors, who are going to be playing without Curry for at least the first round.

Try to beat Memphis in the last game, to try to move up to a higher seed, or throw the game to try to finish #7 seed?

Yes.

But due to tiebreaker its nearly if not totally impossible to finish 7 either way.

Post #742 » by **ThunderBolt** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 5:14 pm

I’m for resting steven adams in the Memphis game. Maybe rest Melo too.

hardenASG13 · Post #743 » by **hardenASG13** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:30 pm

Knrstz wrote:I’m for resting steven adams in the Memphis game. Maybe rest Melo too.

Start them both, limit them as much as possible and use them if needed. Gotta get the win.

Pillendreher · Post #744 » by **Pillendreher** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:24 pm

This can't be right - +21 NetrtG with George off the floor since Brewer became a starter?!

Also for the 'Oh, they're so much better with Brewer' morons: Russ-Brewer-George-Adams has a -3.0 NetRtG on the season.

Patches Perry · Post #745 » by **Patches Perry** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 7:26 pm

Depends on which scenario you prefer. I'll skip the scenarios where OKC loses to Memphis and finishes 7th or 8th. If they beat Memphis, they finish 4th, 5th, or 6th.

Scenario 1 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 2-0 in remaining games. Result: 6th seed OKC plays 3rd seed Utah
Scenario 2 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 1-1 in remaining games. Result: 4th seed OKC plays 5th seed Utah
Scenario 3 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 0-2 in remaining games. Result: 5th seed OKC plays 4th seed winner of NO/SAS game

I prefer scenario 3, but it depends how you value home-court. Seems like scenario 2 is most likely.

ThunderPoke99 · Post #746 » by **ThunderPoke99** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:49 pm

Patches Perry wrote:Depends on which scenario you prefer. I'll skip the scenarios where OKC loses to Memphis and finishes 7th or 8th. If they beat Memphis, they finish 4th, 5th, or 6th.

Scenario 1 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 2-0 in remaining games. Result: 6th seed OKC plays 3rd seed Utah
Scenario 2 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 1-1 in remaining games. Result: 4th seed OKC plays 5th seed Utah
Scenario 3 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 0-2 in remaining games. Result: 5th seed OKC plays 4th seed winner of NO/SAS game

I prefer scenario 3, but it depends how you value home-court. Seems like scenario 2 is most likely.

It's my understanding that Utah can't just go 1-1. They have to specifically beat GS tonight and lose to POR tomorrow night. POR has to wind up in the 3rd spot for us to get to 4. If Utah beats POR, they wind up 3rd since they have the tiebreaker against POR. If the scenario plays out, OKC gets the 4th spot by virtue of the 3rd tiebreaker rule. POR, UT, OKC, and SAS would all have the same record (SAS needs to beat NO) and we win out in the tiebreaker rule.... i think!

**edit** I just read where it may not matter what games UT wins or loses for the 4 seed scenario, so who the hell knows!

Patches Perry · Post #747 » by **Patches Perry** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:57 pm

ThunderPoke99 wrote:
Patches Perry wrote:Depends on which scenario you prefer. I'll skip the scenarios where OKC loses to Memphis and finishes 7th or 8th. If they beat Memphis, they finish 4th, 5th, or 6th.

Scenario 1 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 2-0 in remaining games. Result: 6th seed OKC plays 3rd seed Utah
Scenario 2 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 1-1 in remaining games. Result: 4th seed OKC plays 5th seed Utah
Scenario 3 - Beat Memphis, Utah goes 0-2 in remaining games. Result: 5th seed OKC plays 4th seed winner of NO/SAS game

I prefer scenario 3, but it depends how you value home-court. Seems like scenario 2 is most likely.

It's my understanding that Utah can't just go 1-1. They have to specifically beat GS tonight and lose to POR tomorrow night. POR has to wind up in the 3rd spot for us to get to 4. If Utah beats POR, they wind up 3rd since they have the tiebreaker against POR. If the scenario plays out, OKC gets the 4th spot by virtue of the 3rd tiebreaker rule. POR, UT, OKC, and SAS would all have the same record (SAS needs to beat NO) and we win out in the tiebreaker rule.... i think!

Was just talking about this with Pill in the other thread. You both had the same understanding. Mine was a little different. I don't know which is right.

My understanding was -
POR, UTA, OKC and SAS/NO would have the same record, but only POR, UTA and OKC are potentially division winners while SAS/NO are not (Houston won division). The division winner needs to be settle first:

(1) (a) Since the three division winners are guaranteed a spot in the top four, ties to determine the division winners must be broken before any other ties.

Between POR, UTA and OKC - Portland wins the group H2H tie-breaker, making them the 3rd seed by virtue of being division winner.

From there, tie-breakers are settled among non-division winners OKC, SAS/NO and UTA. OKC wins the group H2H with these teams, earning them the 4th seed, and so forth.

So in the scenario where Utah loses tonight and wins tomorrow night, they'd still lose the division winner tie-breaker as long as OKC wins 48 and throws themselves into the mix. Utah wins the tie-breaker against Portland for division winner only if OKC loses.

hardenASG13 · Post #748 » by **hardenASG13** » Tue Apr 10, 2018 9:16 pm

Pillendreher wrote:

This can't be right - +21 NetrtG with George off the floor since Brewer became a starter?!

Also for the 'Oh, they're so much better with Brewer' morons: Russ-Brewer-George-Adams has a -3.0 NetRtG on the season.

If you are referring to me as an 'oh they're so much better with brewer' moron, I do think the team has looked alot better since signing brewer. He, like Roberson before him shouldn't be playing 25 plus minutes a night, but he is proving to be a playable piece on the wing.

They look great heading into the Playoffs. Not many teams can be feeling better than them. It'll be funny watching this board jump back on the bandwagon after criticizing and doubting their playoff potential all season.

Post #749 » by **ThunderBolt** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:13 am

Read on Twitter

Post #750 » by **ThunderBolt** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:15 am

Read on Twitter

Defensive switching is setting records.

Post #751 » by **bondom34** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:42 pm

Read on Twitter

?s=19

Adams 2nd in MIP. Said he could do it. Vic was amazing.

Pillendreher · Post #752 » by **Pillendreher** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:09 pm

Did you guys know we were already getting Playoff Melo during the Regular season?

Playoff career numbers: 51.3 TS%/105 ORtG
Melo this regular season: 50.3 TS%/104 ORtG

Post #753 » by **slick_watts** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:10 pm

Pillendreher wrote:Did you guys know we were already getting Playoff Melo during the Regular season?

Playoff career numbers: 51.3 TS%/105 ORtG
Melo this regular season: 50.3 TS%/104 ORtG

this looks familiar.

Pillendreher · Post #754 » by **Pillendreher** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:18 pm

slick_watts wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:Did you guys know we were already getting Playoff Melo during the Regular season?

Playoff career numbers: 51.3 TS%/105 ORtG
Melo this regular season: 50.3 TS%/104 ORtG

this looks familiar.

I swear I came to this conclusion on my own, but my discord post didn't go through.

wco81 · Post #755 » by **wco81** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:21 pm

Seems like most of the looks Melo has been getting in recent games is catch and shoot from 3. He's taking a lot more 3PA than his career average but also making them, a bit better than his career average.

Not seeing too many post ups like he used to do in his prime.

Is that really his best role?

Post #756 » by **Andre Roberstan** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:26 pm

wco81 wrote:Seems like most of the looks Melo has been getting in recent games is catch and shoot from 3. He's taking a lot more 3PA than his career average but also making them, a bit better than his career average.

Not seeing too many post ups like he used to do in his prime.

Is that really his best role?

I think so, unless you're using him as a bench spark—where he was quite good to start the season.

You could run him in the mid-post a little bit as a playmaking hub, but he's too shot-happy for that.

hardenASG13 · Post #757 » by **hardenASG13** » Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:41 pm

Andre Roberstan wrote:
wco81 wrote:Seems like most of the looks Melo has been getting in recent games is catch and shoot from 3. He's taking a lot more 3PA than his career average but also making them, a bit better than his career average.

Not seeing too many post ups like he used to do in his prime.

Is that really his best role?

I think so, unless you're using him as a bench spark—where he was quite good to start the season.

You could run him in the mid-post a little bit as a playmaking hub, but he's too shot-happy for that.

I think he's looked good when they set a ball screen for him, either at the arc or in the mid post. If his guy gets caught in the screen he elevates into mid range jumpers like layups. No need for him to always shoot contested jab step jumpers or turnaround fades from midrange.

spearsy23 · Post #758 » by **spearsy23** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:09 am

Despite the record I think it's important to note that this team played at about a 6 game better clip than last year. With the upgrades made that's disappointing, but not overwhelmingly so considering Dre's injury and the downgrade to Melo. Westbrook going clutch God last year probably overinflated some expectations.

Pillendreher · Post #759 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 5:59 am

Read on Twitter

?s=19

We did it!

Post #760 » by **bondom34** » Thu Apr 12, 2018 6:22 am

In the end, they did pretty well honestly. I felt 50ish wins was it, and they got 49 missing Dre the last 30 or so. They'd have been closer to 55 I think with him. Lets go!