Preferable First Round Matchups

[Pillendreher]

Same thing, but at least neither have a first year player as a centerpiece. I think Portland/Utah are on the same level, we're a bit behind, and Nola/sa/den/Minny are a bit farther back. Since it's pretty much Utah or Portland I'll take the one that's a good matchup and more likely to regress.

Portland is a .500 team that went on a streak for a couple of games.

68 non-streak games:

105.4 ORtG (would rank 18th on the season)
105.3 DRtG (would rank 12th on the season)
+0.1 NetRtG (would rank 18th on the season)

Us struggling against them does not turn them into a good team.

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

If you're mediocre for 83 % of the season and go on a random streak for for 16 % of the season, I'm going with the 83 %. Portland has been underwhelming offensively and above average defensively all season long. A narrative based on not even 1/5 of the season is not gonna change my mind about that. And hell, even with that run of theirs, they're still just 10th in NetRtG. NetRtG/A has us at +3.4 and them at +2.4.

If they had started the season 13-0 and played .500 ball the rest of the way, nobody would have considered calling them 'good'. Because they aren't.

[spearsy23]

Portland is a .500 team that went on a streak for a couple of games.

68 non-streak games:

105.4 ORtG (would rank 18th on the season)
105.3 DRtG (would rank 12th on the season)
+0.1 NetRtG (would rank 18th on the season)

Us struggling against them does not turn them into a good team.

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

If you're mediocre for 83 % of the season and go on a random streak for for 16 % of the season, I'm going with the 83 %. Portland has been underwhelming offensively and above average defensively all season long. A narrative based on not even 1/5 of the season is not gonna change my mind about that. And hell, even with that run of theirs, they're still just 10th in NetRtG. NetRtG/A has us at +3.4 and them at +2.4.

If they had started the season 13-0 and played .500 ball the rest of the way, nobody would have considered calling them 'good'. Because they aren't.

Games don't stop counting because they're played consecutively. Having those 14 wins spread throughout the season would not make them more indicative of their capabilities.

[Pillendreher]

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

If you're mediocre for 83 % of the season and go on a random streak for for 16 % of the season, I'm going with the 83 %. Portland has been underwhelming offensively and above average defensively all season long. A narrative based on not even 1/5 of the season is not gonna change my mind about that. And hell, even with that run of theirs, they're still just 10th in NetRtG. NetRtG/A has us at +3.4 and them at +2.4.

If they had started the season 13-0 and played .500 ball the rest of the way, nobody would have considered calling them 'good'. Because they aren't.

Games don't stop counting because they're played consecutively. Having those 14 wins spread throughout the season would not make them more indicative of their capabilities.

And if they had been spread throughout the season, we wouldn't be having this conversation because there'd be no way to overrate them like this. I'm not saying ignore them completely; I'm saying don't overrate them just because they happened in the way of a run and because they happened just a couple of games ago. They are still what they've been all season long, even with that run of theirs: Average offensively, above average defensively. And that's what I'm trying to stress.

[Dadouv47]

Memphis will play this one to win. Old rivalry with them and a L won't change anything in the lottery if I'm not wrong.

Still, if we are not able to beat them, we deserve to get destroyed by the rockets.

[Bergmaniac]

let’s not act like Utah beating okc is some kind of massive upset. Conversely you can argue that talent will only carry you so far when you play our version of isoball and can’t close out three point shooters. We’re willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because of a nice run of ten or so games before Dre got hurt but we’re going to discredit what Utah has done over 35+ games? That’s just bias.

No.I'm willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because they have underachieved all season long (and that's not just based on a lack of shooting or whatever), yet is still one of the more talented in the league. When you have two Top 15 players, you can't lose to a team that was expected to win 30 games or so. If you do, it's an upset.

They were expected to win 30 games when Mitchell was seen as an average first round pick rookie who'd be decent for 15 MPG as a backup and won't move the needle in his first season. But he very quickly became a legitimate star scorer which changed everything.

[Pillendreher]

let’s not act like Utah beating okc is some kind of massive upset. Conversely you can argue that talent will only carry you so far when you play our version of isoball and can’t close out three point shooters. We’re willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because of a nice run of ten or so games before Dre got hurt but we’re going to discredit what Utah has done over 35+ games? That’s just bias.

No.I'm willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because they have underachieved all season long (and that's not just based on a lack of shooting or whatever), yet is still one of the more talented in the league. When you have two Top 15 players, you can't lose to a team that was expected to win 30 games or so. If you do, it's an upset.

They were expected to win 30 games when Mitchell was seen as an average first round pick rookie who'd be decent for 15 MPG as a backup and won't move the needle in his first season. But he very quickly became a legitimate star scorer which changed everything.

He's not a 'legitimate star scorer'. He's very good for his age, but he has ways to go. Per 36, his scoring numbers resemble Jordan Clarkson and Michael Beasley this season or Dennis Schröder from last season. And I know he has been doing it on a (much) higher volume, but he's still just a rookie.

Ingles for example is also quite important to what Utah does offensively:

Read on Twitter

Either way: You won't beat them by out-defending them. Gotta find ways to score.

[slick_watts]

Portland is a .500 team that went on a streak for a couple of games.

68 non-streak games:

105.4 ORtG (would rank 18th on the season)
105.3 DRtG (would rank 12th on the season)
+0.1 NetRtG (would rank 18th on the season)

Us struggling against them does not turn them into a good team.

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

If you're mediocre for 83 % of the season and go on a random streak for for 16 % of the season, I'm going with the 83 %. Portland has been underwhelming offensively and above average defensively all season long. A narrative based on not even 1/5 of the season is not gonna change my mind about that. And hell, even with that run of theirs, they're still just 10th in NetRtG. NetRtG/A has us at +3.4 and them at +2.4.

If they had started the season 13-0 and played .500 ball the rest of the way, nobody would have considered calling them 'good'. Because they aren't.

you are the king of selection bias.

[Pillendreher]

If you discount the games where teams played their best then they generally look average or worst, that's not novel analysis.

If you're mediocre for 83 % of the season and go on a random streak for for 16 % of the season, I'm going with the 83 %. Portland has been underwhelming offensively and above average defensively all season long. A narrative based on not even 1/5 of the season is not gonna change my mind about that. And hell, even with that run of theirs, they're still just 10th in NetRtG. NetRtG/A has us at +3.4 and them at +2.4.

If they had started the season 13-0 and played .500 ball the rest of the way, nobody would have considered calling them 'good'. Because they aren't.

you are the king of selection bias.

We all have to play our role.

[Balkman32]

Wow I am shocked at how unsupportive this board is of this team. I think ya'all are going to be shocked.

This team is going to come out of the gate with a big chip on the shoulder. If they don't end up playing Houston I 100% believe that the Thunder will sweep the first-round series. This team is just too talented compared to others.

[Thabo Sefolosha]

talent is there, effort isnt

[Thundershock88]

Sweep?!?! Slow down. What has this team done to make you believe that?

[bondom34]

Wow I am shocked at how unsupportive this board is of this team. I think ya'all are going to be shocked.

This team is going to come out of the gate with a big chip on the shoulder. If they don't end up playing Houston I 100% believe that the Thunder will sweep the first-round series. This team is just too talented compared to others.

You don't have to be a homer to be supportive.

[Kizz Fastfists]

This team is just too talented compared to others.

What team is OKC legitimately more talented than that they are going to play in the first round? I can't think of a single team. Yes, Russ will be the best player in any series unless they are playing Houston or GS, but overall the top 8 of the other team will be better then the top 8 of OKC. That is BEFORE we factoring the points OKC will lose due to coaching. Last year OKC was good enough to beat Houston with competent coaching. Is OKC talented enough to beat Utah, Portland, SA, etc? Sure, but there is no chance they do it with Donovan setting the rotations and letting them play street ball.

[bondom34]

And if we're doing selection bias this team is 10-2 on Wednesdays with a mov of 11.5. I've found the key.

[spearsy23]

And if we're doing selection bias this team is 10-2 on Wednesdays with a mov of 11.5. I've found the key.

What's the analytics on that?

[ThunderBolt]

talent is there, effort isnt

Effort can be switched on when it matters. High IQ basketball cannot.

[Bergmaniac]

No.I'm willing to give this team the benefit of the doubt because they have underachieved all season long (and that's not just based on a lack of shooting or whatever), yet is still one of the more talented in the league. When you have two Top 15 players, you can't lose to a team that was expected to win 30 games or so. If you do, it's an upset.

They were expected to win 30 games when Mitchell was seen as an average first round pick rookie who'd be decent for 15 MPG as a backup and won't move the needle in his first season. But he very quickly became a legitimate star scorer which changed everything.

He's not a 'legitimate star scorer'. He's very good for his age, but he has ways to go. Per 36, his scoring numbers resemble Jordan Clarkson and Michael Beasley this season or Dennis Schröder from last season. And I know he has been doing it on a (much) higher volume, but he's still just a rookie.

Ingles for example is also quite important to what Utah does offensively:

Read on Twitter

Per36 is a useless stat when comparing first options and bench scorers who mostly play against reserves. Mitchell is the clear first option on a top team and is scoring on a good efficiency for his volume, especially considering the Jazz are a defence first type of team. His efficiency and PPG stats are pretty similar to Westbrook and PG13's for this season. And he passes the eye test too, at least for me, he can already score in so many ways and is shooting 64% at the rim at a pretty high volume, which is amazing for a guy his size.

[Balkman32]

This team is just too talented compared to others.

What team is OKC legitimately more talented than that they are going to play in the first round? I can't think of a single team. Yes, Russ will be the best player in any series unless they are playing Houston or GS, but overall the top 8 of the other team will be better then the top 8 of OKC. That is BEFORE we factoring the points OKC will lose due to coaching. Last year OKC was good enough to beat Houston with competent coaching. Is OKC talented enough to beat Utah, Portland, SA, etc? Sure, but there is no chance they do it with Donovan setting the rotations and letting them play street ball.

Donovan has shown that he has stuff up his sleeves. OKC is a top 5 talent team in this league. Only ones with more talent are probably GSW and Houston. Boston would be in that convo but with no Irving and Hayward, the Thunder would roll on those guys.

[dakomish23]

Wow I am shocked at how unsupportive this board is of this team. I think ya'all are going to be shocked.

This team is going to come out of the gate with a big chip on the shoulder. If they don't end up playing Houston I 100% believe that the Thunder will sweep the first-round series. This team is just too talented compared to others.

You don't have to be a homer to be supportive.

Hoping they don’t make the playoffs & wishing for the season to end is being supportive?

You don’t have to be a homer but if you’re going to be negative most of the year, I don’t see how that can be classified as supportive.

[bondom34]

Wow I am shocked at how unsupportive this board is of this team. I think ya'all are going to be shocked.

This team is going to come out of the gate with a big chip on the shoulder. If they don't end up playing Houston I 100% believe that the Thunder will sweep the first-round series. This team is just too talented compared to others.

You don't have to be a homer to be supportive.

Hoping they don’t make the playoffs & wishing for the season to end is being supportive?

You don’t have to be a homer but if you’re going to be negative most of the year, I don’t see how that can be classified as supportive.

Some people have wanted to tank 2 years now. I can't call that less of a fan, they see a different plan. I've at times needed to step away from.this team bit will always hope for the best even when I don't expect it. Just gotta hope pg stays and they do Some.damage.

They got what might be their best matchup and the 4 seed. After all this. Its weird