Cleaning up after heroball

[spearsy23]

Next year is going to be the same team minus George, we're going the Memphis route.

Not wishing for injuries but if they happen, we’ll have a similar record with a chance for a top three pick. What sucks is if we had missed the playoffs and kept our pick, we likely would have been bad enough for the foreseeable future to never lose our frp that Minnesota has. It would have eventually became second round picks. The season has literally ended the worst way possible.

I doubt we see major injuries until 2020, until then we'll win 35-45 games and miss the playoffs or get bounced I'm the first round.

[bondom34]

Think I might need a break from this franchise for a few weeks.

Edit. Old Man Game has the plan. I'm going to relax and watch Philly a few weeks. Need to stop thinking about this train wreck a little while and learn to enjoy basketball again.

I've never enjoyed a sports team less than the 2018 Thunder

[spearsy23]

Think I might need a break from this franchise for a few weeks.

Edit. Old Man Game has the plan. I'm going to relax and watch Philly a few weeks. Need to stop thinking about this train wreck a little while and learn to enjoy basketball again.

I've never enjoyed a sports team less than the 2018 Thunder

I think last year was worse team wise because there were obvious things that consistently worked and Billy refused to do them. This team just isn't very good.

[jambalaya]

Heroball has to deliver again and again to meet round 1 expectations.

[spearsy23]

Heroball has to deliver again and again to meet round 1 expectations.

But **** me if it isn't spectacular when it does

[Trip]

If you told Sam to wipe the slate clean I think he'd impress with what he could get in return. It's fine tuning that has always been where he fails to deliver.

[jambalaya]

Read on Twitter

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

[bondom34]

Read on Twitter

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This changes a bit if you correct for minutes played I believe.And correlation isn't causation.

[wco81]

Does that record account for all of Westbrook's career?

Like the early years when KD, Harden and Ibaka were on the team as well?

If it does, that's pretty damning.

[bondom34]

Does that record account for all of Westbrook's career?

Like the early years when KD, Harden and Ibaka were on the team as well?

If it does, that's pretty damning.

Not really, it's not a causation. It's a correlation

[wco81]

I'm wondering if Westbrook's game has evolved over his career beyond the higher usage rate as he became the #1 option on the team.

For instance, does he shoot off the catch for a higher percentage than on pull-ups? He's got a good form on his jumper as well as from the FT line so if he can increase the quality of the shot attempts, maybe that yields better results.

Maybe try to work him more off the ball to see if his efficiency improves. There have been many players who've come into the league and improved their jump shooting, especially from beyond the arc. In most cases, these players don't have to create for themselves but are able to space out the floor.

But the time to do that probably would have been about 5 years ago, paired with a good PG. Now, after an MVP year with him dominating the ball, the die is probably cast for his career as he approaches his 30th birthday.

[jambalaya]

Minutes don't change these trends. A minute adjustment might say that the very high shot attempts or scoring are less unusual compared to regular season but it wouldn't change the trends.

"Correlation isn't causation" is correct as a generalization and could be said anytime to anything. But partial correlation could be part of causation or sometimes. Something(s) caused the end result. It is not "proved" or "total" but partial correlation could be partial causation. The correlation of these events are much more likely partial causation of losing than they are partial causation of winning (though it could be and likely is some of both). And that is the lesser observation here. Nobody directly claimed causation. Just correlation with losing. Other causes could be his defense, his passing /turnovers, his "leadership" or anything else about him or the 9 others on the court. It is unlikely any one thing is more than a partial cause but some things may be more correlated with winning or losing than others. Checking the win /loss rates for each is the way to go. The tweeter checked one of interest. Dozens remain.

By these criteria the team won once and lost one when they were met in this playoffs. That is better than the historical averages but also much smaller sample than the historical average. Anyways, better to know trends and consider than to not know them or not consider them.

For all 6 games of the series, I think it is pretty clear he was bad in 3 of the losses (below or way below average efg, ts%, offensive rating and raw plus minus in each and high turnovers in 2) and contributed to the losses (along with other trends or causes). He was good in one win. The other two games are closer calls but an offensive rating of 103 in the last game is not good and usually a better fit with contributing to losing than winning. Russ with a 104 in the first victory and 40% efg is borderline at best and probably not a strong cause of victory, especially when 4 teammates shot way better.

By several overall metrics this series was either his worst by far playoffs in 5 years or worst or second worst ever.

[bondom34]

Oh he was bad. But the shooting correlating to losses doesn't mean much imo

[Lava Rock Kid]

I don't really blame the coach. He is in a hard spot.

If westbrook doesn't buy in, he leaves. OK needs the former MVP

However, the team needs to start playing advantage ball with passing to the biggest advantage, and giving it back to the mvp if it is in the fourth qtr or last 5 seconds of the shot clock. Like Golden state does.

Westbrook doesn't play this way. If Donavon was to bench him to send a message when he breaks the offensive and Westbrook leaves. That wont be good at all.

I think this will wake Westbrook up. I wouldn't fire Donovan, I would tell him and Westbrook that Hero ball is done. If either side wont give, than that is where you fire/trade.

Next year will be great for OKC.

[EmperorLocky]

I'm wondering if Westbrook's game has evolved over his career beyond the higher usage rate as he became the #1 option on the team.

For instance, does he shoot off the catch for a higher percentage than on pull-ups? He's got a good form on his jumper as well as from the FT line so if he can increase the quality of the shot attempts, maybe that yields better results.

I was looking this up the other day and his pull up shots are his least efficient. Around the 35-36% mark and he takes them at about 15 fga per game.

It's hard to see what OKC can do from here. Even if Carmelo chose to opt out they would still be over the cap. Hopefully he opts in and they pull off a trade for a team wanting to clear cap space by end of next season and in return get some good complimentary pieces. If Melo and PG both left this off-season they'd still only have around 7 million to play with. So best case scenario is PG re-signs and Melo agrees to a trade.

I'm a big critic of Westbrook's game but I'm hoping after this 1st round exit he pushes the GM for a coach that relies more on ball-movement. I still think Westbrook could be a legit threat running and cutting off the ball. I'd say right now I'm more than hopeful he will change his games if they get a good coach. This 1st round exit might be a blessing in disguise and Westbrook will now be more motivated to win in a team system.

[jambalaya]

A reminder of how extreme the heroball gets:

Read on Twitter

?p=v

[Balkman32]

A reminder of how extreme the heroball gets:

Read on Twitter

?p=v

Didnt they win the game? If PG13 hits a couple of shots in game 6 there is a game 7.

[sonictecture]

Presti talked like a Spur but designed and acted like an Ayn Rand worshipper of heroes. Westbrook is the piece that took it too far. Presti didn't check it, barely tried if at all. Prest's ego / insecurities / self-defense lead him to pick coaches who wouldn't challenge him. But he needed better partners to reach the highest achievement. That would have been more Spur like.

Do teams not win with talent any longer?

The strongest most outspoken coach in the league, Gregg Popovich admitted last year that he didn't coach LaMarcus Aldridge correctly. He tried to coach him as he had coached Tim Duncan for the last 15+ seasons and Aldridge isn't Duncan. In one of the biggest mysteries of the year, Kawhi Leonard seems to have issues with Popovich and the Spurs.

Is Brad Stevens changing who players are in Boston or is he working to put them in the best position to succeed?

[jambalaya]

Popovich was probably wrong about being wrong about Aldridge. He was wrong imo about the overall team shot distribution which was affected by too much Aldridge in mid-range. The playoffs was a tough situation in several ways but they had the worst by far team efg%.

Catering to Aldridge may have made things worse with Kawhi in terms of style of play and "whose team it is".

They are going nowhere with Aldridge and with their other recent moves.



Live by Russ hero ball, you're probably eventually going to die by it. A few superstars manage it but that possibility seems to have passed for Russ. Close but not close enough.


I don't know who Rozier, Brown, Tatum were / are enough to say how much is just them being optimized vs. shaped or prgrammed by Stevens. Horford, Baynes, Smart, yeah, they are who they are and let be so. As is often the case, it is some of this, some of that, not just one or the other.


Hey ST. The best talent usually wins. And not the best talent has very little shot unless the coach and the roster design are exceptional, beyond that of the best talent team. They are almost impossible tasks but those are the tasks.