The third time's the charm - First Round Series vs Portland

[Dadouv47]

we win this easily. I can see us dropping a game but thats it.

Kanter will get abused in pnr by george and westbrook and they have NO ONE that can handle russ

“We”?

He will referee some of our games. Good to know that the refs are with us.

[NetsWorld]

We should beat a team like Portland, but after the awful start to post All Star Break, I won't be surprised if we lose. Last year, we all expected to Beat Utah and we saw the turnout afterwards. Nonetheless, if Thunder's D is consistent all series long and they make their shots, OKC should win the series in a tough six games. And being a six seed this year worked out better for us than Houston at 4. Houston will have to lock heads with the Warriors this time in the semi finals. The first two rounds are winnable for OKC, even without homecourt advantage, but the team will have to prove it. They finished poor and still end up with a decent shot at the WCF, it's time to capitalize.

[retrobro90]

I think Kanter won't play all that much honestly. Collins/Leonard probably take a lot of those minutes or at least I would do that if I were Stotts. I think we struggle against 5s that can stretch. Especially if Adams is hobbled and can't switch or hedge and recover.

I could live with that as well. Collins can't really shoot (he's 99/334 from 10+ feet in the first two seasons of hid career) and while Leonard is a guy that can drain a 3, he'd have to be a volume shooter and maker to make up for Adams' advantage on the interior, which isn't really his game. Hell, if you could steer Portland towards a much more prominent Leonard, it'd be excellent for us.

They could also go ultra small with someone like Aminu/harkless at the 5. In fact I'd bet on them doing so at least for stretches when they need offense. Could see Billy throwing out a Grant at the 5 lineup too

[Pillendreher]

I think Kanter won't play all that much honestly. Collins/Leonard probably take a lot of those minutes or at least I would do that if I were Stotts. I think we struggle against 5s that can stretch. Especially if Adams is hobbled and can't switch or hedge and recover.

I could live with that as well. Collins can't really shoot (he's 99/334 from 10+ feet in the first two seasons of hid career) and while Leonard is a guy that can drain a 3, he'd have to be a volume shooter and maker to make up for Adams' advantage on the interior, which isn't really his game. Hell, if you could steer Portland towards a much more prominent Leonard, it'd be excellent for us.

They could also go ultra small with someone like Aminu/harkless at the 5. In fact I'd bet on them doing so at least for stretches when they need offense. Could see Billy throwing out a Grant at the 5 lineup too

Is that an offensive lineup though? They don't have a single forward that I'd characterize as an offensive weapon. Neither one of Harkless, Aminu and Turner is a real danger from 3. Turner is about the only guy that can actually create shots, but even that is not exactly something's he's good at.

EDIT: I guess Layman or Hood could provide some offense off the bench, but then again, are those the guys you want to get relative heavy minutes as Portland?

[CROklahoma]

Thing I've been interested the most.
What is the schedule for the team till Sunday.
Are the guys given rest today/tomorrow, are they focusing on film room, extensive shootaround, recovery, etc.
Is there any source of which activities are happening ...
There's got to be some change in the way team prepares for regular season games and these type of clashes.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I expect a lot of small ball from Portland. I don't expect Kanter to be playing 20+ MPG. They might even start Lillard, CJ, Turner, Harkless and Aminu. That would be my starting 5 if I were Portland with Curry, Hood and Leonard as my bench. Maybe Kanter for a few minutes here and there if there was something inviting about the Thunder lineup for a 4-5 min stretch here and there, which is likely with Donovan coaching.

[retrobro90]

I could live with that as well. Collins can't really shoot (he's 99/334 from 10+ feet in the first two seasons of hid career) and while Leonard is a guy that can drain a 3, he'd have to be a volume shooter and maker to make up for Adams' advantage on the interior, which isn't really his game. Hell, if you could steer Portland towards a much more prominent Leonard, it'd be excellent for us.

They could also go ultra small with someone like Aminu/harkless at the 5. In fact I'd bet on them doing so at least for stretches when they need offense. Could see Billy throwing out a Grant at the 5 lineup too

Is that an offensive lineup though? They don't have a single forward that I'd characterize as an offensive weapon. Neither one of Harkless, Aminu and Turner is a real danger from 3. Turner is about the only guy that can actually create shots, but even that is not exactly something's he's good at.

EDIT: I guess Layman or Hood could provide some offense off the bench, but then again, are those the guys you want to get relative heavy minutes as Portland?

I think Aminu is a danger from 3 especially when playing the five. Harkless and Turner are horrible shooters though and I dont think Turner has the requisite defense/length/elevation to spend any amount of minutes at C

[CROklahoma]

And who would actually rebound the ball for them ?
Dame $ ?

Adams would make apartment underneath the basket, stop with the ridicolous ideas ...

[Pillendreher]

They could also go ultra small with someone like Aminu/harkless at the 5. In fact I'd bet on them doing so at least for stretches when they need offense. Could see Billy throwing out a Grant at the 5 lineup too

Is that an offensive lineup though? They don't have a single forward that I'd characterize as an offensive weapon. Neither one of Harkless, Aminu and Turner is a real danger from 3. Turner is about the only guy that can actually create shots, but even that is not exactly something's he's good at.

EDIT: I guess Layman or Hood could provide some offense off the bench, but then again, are those the guys you want to get relative heavy minutes as Portland?

I think Aminu is a danger from 3 especially when playing the five. Harkless and Turner are horrible shooters though and I dont think Turner has the requisite defense/length/elevation to spend any amount of minutes at C

35.3 % from 3 as a Blazer in four seasons. The last two seasons he didn't even crack the 50th percentile in spot up PPP. You don't want to give him wide open 3 after wide open 3, but again, if you can get the ball out of Lillard's hands, I think you can live with 3s for these roleplayers. Especially if you can force them into situations they're not comfortable in, ie bigger offensive roles than they're used to.

[Pillendreher]

And who would actually rebound the ball for them ?
Dame $ ?

Adams would make apartment underneath the basket, stop with the ridicolous ideas ...

If there's ever a series that Adams could dominate, this should be it. No more 4 FGA kind of games. Involve him heavily. I don't think they have a single guy on the roster that can match him physically.

[slick_watts]

portland's going to do a lot of off-ball screening to get us out of sorts especially with nurkic out. i dunno if they've been doing pnr less without him but i expect they have. this could save adams some effort. their other bigs are not nearly as good at passing as nurkic so there's less to worry about with that weak side corner three point shooter. i'd play them relatively straight up. ferguson has been successful this year at times getting through screens against portland, at other times not. i think that will dictate what we do.

[Kizz Fastfists]

If there's ever a series that Adams could dominate, this should be it. No more 4 FGA kind of games. Involve him heavily. I don't think they have a single guy on the roster that can match him physically.

That means the Donovan game plan will be a lot of 3s with no designed touches for Adams.

[JustOneFix]

I'm so confident in us against the Blazers, that I would even dare to rest George for the first game. If we win the game 1, I would rest him the game 2 as well and get him completely healthy and rested for the second round.

[NaturalThunder]

Read on Twitter

Incoming 22.5/6.2/2.8 on 40/31/79 shooting series from PG.

[Kizz Fastfists]

Incoming 22.5/6.2/2.8 on 40/31/79 shooting series from PG.

That seems reasonable.

PG before the break shot 45/81/49 with 59 TS% and 11.2 +/-
PG after the break shot 40/34/84 with 54 TS% and 1.8 +/-

[SecondTake]

Looks like your dream of me leaving gets delayed another year. We're going to the finals.

77 % to make it out of the 1st round, 49 % to make it out of the 2nd round (ie 64 % to beat our 2nd round matchup). I'll take it.

I'm not sure how we have 64% chance in the second round though. Denver is slumping but we seem to match up terribly and its not like we're on fire. I would like our chances better with a healthy Pg.

Adams should average 20+ against POR. Billy better be feeding him on every possession. Take some pressure off pg.

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[SecondTake]

Btw any news on Adams? Is he injured at all?

We need to put this away in five to give pg some rest

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[SecondTake]

I'm still in complete disbelif how this turned out. We got the team in the first round that we beat 4-0 this season and GS is on the other side of the bracket. This is beyond my wildest and most optimistic expectations...

Billy is a genius. His tactical tanking had worked out exactly like he planned.

Should get COTY consideration. Phill needs to add a checkmark to his avatar.

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[SecondTake]

Schroeder has shown that he likely will take over a game or 2 in a 7 game series as well, which is why he's such a weapon off the bench, a notion this board has been against for some reason all year. Those regular season numbers you've killed him on mean absolutely 0 as of today. Can he get hot in a playoff game or 2 per series? That's is and has been all that matters. No reason to think he cant.

This is simple maths any adult should be capable of doing and understanding. Dennis Schröder will play a finite amount of games this postseason. His regular season indicates that we'll get a lot of up and down performances from him. And even though you fail to acknowledge this, it's not just the good performances that matter. It's the whole package.

Let's say we beat them in 6 and Schröder has two games in which he "gets hot" while playing like his more usual than some people want to admit bad self in the other four. Those two most likely will not be enough for him bricking shots left and right in the other four. His post ASB performance illustrates this issue perfectly:



He's had a couple of games in which he was great offensively, but he's also had so many horrible ones that those great games are simply overshadowed. League average is at 56 TS% and Schröder has been at 48.2 since the ASB. Every time we don't get "Hot Schröder", it hurts the team in a way that goes beyond simple volatility because Schröder is not a 15 minutes off the bench kind of guy, but a 30+ minutes kind of guy. And when his shot doesn't fall, he's a big fat negative on the court since you're not getting surplus value defensively from him either.

Mhmm I like that recent trend line though

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[SecondTake]

I'm so confident in us against the Blazers, that I would even dare to rest George for the first game. If we win the game 1, I would rest him the game 2 as well and get him completely healthy and rested for the second round.

Woah bro hold your horses. we not doing that.

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