Thunder design analysis

[Dn4sty]

NBA says they want a massive increase in next national TV contracts. NFL just got theirs. NBA may not be as successful but they will probably still get at least a pretty good increase.

With current contract running to summer 2025, it would be massively helpful to sign long term deals in summer 2023 and 2024 before the salaries also balloon. That will be right timing for 2nd contracts of 2021 and 2022 draftees (after 4th yr or 3rd by extension) and the 2020 draftees and Dort, Brown. Some but not much advantage with SGA and some others to be re-signed soon

I would rather not pay rookie contracts in summer 2025 or after, or new deals for role players or especially stars. So assemble the entire team by summer 2024 or trade deadline 2025. If they maximize this time strategy, they will probably be able to afford 3 stars after 2025, or 5 good or better starters and maybe a good / deep bench too. Move distant future draft assets forward if possible at a reasonable cost.

We need to find someone with some bum ankles to get signed at a discount before the spike hits.

Seriously though man, this is such good info

[jambalaya]

Thank you.

[cjmcallist]

NBA says they want a massive increase in next national TV contracts. NFL just got theirs. NBA may not be as successful but they will probably still get at least a pretty good increase.

With current contract running to summer 2025, it would be massively helpful to sign long term deals in summer 2023 and 2024 before the salaries also balloon. That will be right timing for 2nd contracts of 2021 and 2022 draftees (after 4th yr or 3rd by extension) and the 2020 draftees and Dort, Brown. Some but not much advantage with SGA and some others to be re-signed soon

I would rather not pay rookie contracts in summer 2025 or after, or new deals for role players or especially stars. So assemble the entire team by summer 2024 or trade deadline 2025. If they maximize this time strategy, they will probably be able to afford 3 stars after 2025, or 5 good or better starters and maybe a good / deep bench too. Move distant future draft assets forward if possible at a reasonable cost.

We need to find someone with some bum ankles to get signed at a discount before the spike hits.

Seriously though man, this is such good info

Agree, this is really good foresight. Wait - are you Rob Hennigan?

So, how should we be thinking about this?

Are we:
1) accumulating rookie talent right now,
2) targeting cap space (contracts that expire) the summer of 2024
3) plan on paying the tax starting in 2025/26

[jambalaya]

Cap space could be used in 2023 or 2024. Need to decide what to go for with that tool. Position / role. Shooting, getting to line, interior defense. 2 way guys.

[jambalaya]

I have a fair amount of Thunder content at my Twitter handle the last few days, if interested.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bballstrategy

Including talk today about SGA Dort Williams probably with Roby and an unknown 5th. With a center, Bazley or Jerome? Test and figure it out.

[SharoneWright]

TSN segment on Dort:

Watch on YouTube

[jambalaya]

Thanks for video link.


Dort has on average shot /scored poorly for last 2 months.

Defensive effort is strong but results on average may not be that good. The bigger the guy the better they score on him. The numbers suggest they have pretty much given up using him on SFs.

Is he better than season? Debatable. In some ways. But not overall on BPM or LA-RAPM.


If he plays SG, I more and more think SGA should play SF. Next to Jerome or a new PG. Either that or Dort to the bench unit.

[jambalaya]

Thunder are less than a tenth of a point per 100 possessions. from worst SRS in league. Yes the tank facilitating outages are contributing but they are bad and will likely get worse before better. Long, long way to neutral SRS and even longer to good or better.

Offense was never good and defense is plummeting. Beyond average for season now and way below recently. Tendency out there to focus on the good and ignore the bad but they are both real.

[jambalaya]

Shot distribution is decent from Moreyball perspective but could / should be improved. Results are lousy though. Bottom 5-6 from every field goal distance and 3

0th from FT line. Shooting not prioritized. Lots of guys should not be retained / paid if they don't get better at shooting.

8 points worse than average on offense. 4 pts from fg shooting, 1.5 pts from FT line, and about 2.5 pts from higher turnovers.

[jambalaya]

As things currently project for next season, there could be 10-12 players pretty unhappy with their minute levels, many getting less than this season.

In a projected 10 man rotation I generated, 4 guys in it would be upset along with everyone outside it.

Horford and several others going out for fewer back (4 for 2, 5 for 3, etc.) could make sense in several ways. Multi-team trade or 2 team. Warriors could be involved with Wiggins and / or Oubre.
Micic could be involved. More likely will go elsewhere. If he signs / stays with Thunder, they'd probably have to be thinking playoffs in 22-23. I dunno if they are or are not.

[jambalaya]

At least 10 guys they could move on from imo, when done tanking. Maybe a couple turn it around but it doesn't look that promising for many.

What do they need? Better shooters, better scorers, better passers, better rebounders, better defenders, better leaders, better coaches, probably better analytics, better scouts...

[jambalaya]

Soon to be over... for this season... but the net rating slide has been huge. Almost 20% worse than 2nd worst. 30% worse than 3rd worst. 50% worse than Timberwolves. 150% worse than Pistons. 450% worse than Bulls.

[jambalaya]

It appears there will be no more testing of SGA-Dort this season. That pair (without Jerome) was a failure at -7 pts / 100 possessions in about 850 minutes.

Adding Jerome worked to +8 but in only 31 minutes. Should test that hard next season. As hard as the failed approach or harder. To the exclusion or limited testing of pairs that didn't work. Coaching & management failure to not have tested that trio adequately this season.

Adding Williams is supported by the data. Adding Bradley might too. Those 5 guys together got zero minutes of test due to SGA absence.

[jambalaya]

100% of the 20 most used pairs and trios are negative. Only Roby -Williams is close to positive among the pairs. All the 20 bigger minute quads are negative except for a few with Horford. All 20 non-Horford 5 man lineups are negative but one all bench unit.

Either the remaining players don't fit or at least Coach D hasn't identified / shown bigger minute player fits.

Assuming Muscala leaves, the first positive pair on the list is the 80th most used. SGA - K Williams.That is it for positive pairs still possible and over 100 minutes. Mykhailiuk - Pokusevski is neutral. Bazley - Hoard is the only other positive over 25 minutes.

Next season will probably need very different lineup management and / or very different systems & strategies. And new players.


3 positive quads over 50 minutes. 1160 different quads used and that's it that meet these 2 modest criteria. Williams and Mykhailiuk in all 3. Jerome in 2. SGA and Dort not part of the named group always in any of these.

By these numbers the core probably should include Williams and at least one of Jerome and Mikhailiuk. Probably at least Jerome. SGA by other rationales. Bradley or Brown until someone else arrives (or Muscala is retained). A little wiggle room on the 5th guy. Roby has an argument given his strong pair with Williams. But Coach D / Thunder management will likely include 1 or more guys without support from lineup data.

[jambalaya]

SGA without Dort, team is -13pts per 100 possessions overall. SGA with Dort is still -7pts overall. That pair with K Williams is almost +14 in about 100 minutes. SGA with Williams but without Dort is -3pts. Could be small sample randomness, could need all 3. Jerome with this trio could work but way too little test to say.


Will need to find out next season. Playing around with other forwards will distract from this needed test. SGA - Dort - Bazley got 727 minutes and was almost -10pts / 100p. Need / want more of that? Probably not for me. At least not as top priority. SGA - Dort - Pokusevski was -11pts but in just 57 minutes. Test that more but it may not work.

[jambalaya]

Too early to mean much but Deck with mostly negative pairs, bad to horrendous. Particularly horrendous with K Williams and Bazley, both worse than -50pts / 100p. Pair with Jerome is a slight positive.

[jambalaya]

Thunder imo need 2 additional guards, who can direct offense with good 3pt shooting and at least one above average on defense. And 2 wings (probably SFs) with the same. Consistent quality driving & kicking preferred, not just trying.

Another big needed eventually with good D and more passing / scoring. Probably a vet 25 or over.

What they most don't need more of is 3 / 4s who are below average at scoring efficiency and under-sized and / or below average on defense. (Kuminga, Ziaire Williams, etc.)

Doesnt have to be thru draft but most new guys that might stick will come in that way. Cunningham ok. Mobley probably better. Otherwise I'd probably trade their top pick for lower and something.

Still like Butler, Mitchell, Dosunmu and Ayayi.

Still like Kispert and Wagner. Maybe Trey Murphy. Livers and Wisekamp.

A few others who aren't exact fits or highest positional priorities like Garuba, Sengun, Queta or Garza. Depends who is available / when.

[jambalaya]

Prakacin's highlights look pretty good; but he probably falls into the 3/4 type I listed above as not best. Presti / Hennigan probably love him.

[jambalaya]

Other names with some 2nd round interest would include Hurt, McBride, Huff and Grimes.

[mr570]

Too early to mean much but Deck with mostly negative pairs, bad to horrendous. Particularly horrendous with K Williams and Bazley, both worse than -50pts / 100p. Pair with Jerome is a slight positive.

He's really small. Honestly does not look the listed 6'6 to me.