Thunder design analysis

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jambalaya
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#161 » by jambalaya » Fri May 14, 2021 6:46 pm

Happened to notice Maledon's A/TO is tied for worst in league among PGs. Will need to improve. Among other things.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#162 » by 1bigfan13 » Sat May 15, 2021 4:01 pm

jambalaya wrote:Happened to notice Maledon's A/TO is tied for worst in league among PGs. Will need to improve. Among other things.


Given the circumstances of this season and the lack of experience and talent on the roster, I'm not too concerned about that.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#163 » by jambalaya » Sat May 15, 2021 10:58 pm

Here is a framework for evaluating / monitoring progress on team design:

Assuming a 10 man rotation / 2 for each position, how many of those slots are currently filled adequately and well?

Imo, right now based on performance to date, it is:

Adequate (around neutral impact or better)

PG 1 (Jerome), SG 1 (SGA), SF 1 (Williams), PF 1 (Deck) and Center 1 (Bradley). 5 slots not filled adequately.

How many are starters vs. subs? Right now these would be my starters if I wanted to win. Long-term it is probably 1-3 starters. Your ratings / slottings may of course vary.

By filled "well" (moderate positive impact or better)
it is SGA and nothing else.

Future quality guesses as of now would be different than current based on performance. I might do that later but this isn't that.

So, based on this, I'd say they are maybe about 50% of the way to demonstrated talent to play .500 or better, maybe 10-20% of way to being good and 5-10% of way to being very good or better.

This assumes the departure of Horford & Muscala and retention of Bradley.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#164 » by jambalaya » Fri May 28, 2021 4:05 pm

Take away SGA minutes with the departed Hill and Diallo, the likely to depart Horford and K Williams and the 200 plus minutes this season without them were a disaster at over -16 pts / 100 possessions. Even with K Williams was -4 pts / 100p without those other 3.

Give SGA the max or near max and build around him?
Need to massively reverse this year results with the rest of players and / or get lots of new players.

SGA played less than 20% of his minutes with K Williams. What will it be next season? By raw pair data, it probably be a lot higher. But it probably won't be very high due to all the options and prioritization of other guys.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#165 » by jambalaya » Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:56 am

If Presti had fired Donovan a year or two early and offered Monty Williams a big salary (say $2-3 million more than the Suns offered), would he have taken it? I dunno. Maybe not. I probably would have tried.

But instead a non-NBA player with no prior NBA head coaching experience was hired, presumably cheap and presumably with limited input on decision-making. That fit pretty well with the past practices and with the anticipated long road back. But was it a long run mistake? We'll see. Meanwhile Williams probably headed to Finals.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#166 » by jambalaya » Mon Jul 5, 2021 7:52 pm

Thunder probably have the biggest basketball analytics staff in league and at minimum are top 3 based on publicly recognized staff.

Not seeing much of a design around SGA yet. Awful this season in most ways with a few meh marks thrown in.

Certainly have the draft picks and analytic resources to put together a bright future. How much will be realized in next year or two? 2023-4 will have far higher performance demands.
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Re: Thunder design analysis 

Post#167 » by jambalaya » Mon Jul 12, 2021 7:15 pm

There are no bigger minute lineups with remaining personnel that were positive last season.

The only "core" that I see right now to focus on is SGA - Dort - Williams. Plus 32 pts / 100p... in 54 minutes of test. If they ignored to tank, ok I guess. If they ignored it purely from lack of recognition... Better not ignore next season. Better not trade Williams imo.


Pokusevski was SGA's worst pair in main rotation. Apparently heavily because of net turnovers. That could be fluke randomness or not. Find out early next season. Pokusevski even worse with Maledon or both. Best with Jerome but still bad early results. Find his best pair(s) and build his role / fit.


(Fwiw, thread title was simplified.)
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Re: Thunder design analysis 

Post#168 » by WC NBA Fan » Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:29 pm

I wouldn't be surprised to see something along the lines of a Kuminga, Alperin and Duarte 1st round haul this year. Knowing that American players are usually seeking large, glamour type markets and that foreign born players see the advantage of being in small markets with less pressure, I could see Presti going all foreign this year although I do realize that Kuminga could very well be gone by 5 to Orlando. The other 2 are rising up the boards as well.

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