The grand design- same old or new?

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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#21 » by oken » Thu Aug 29, 2019 7:36 am

Pessimist take:
It's the Jerry Sloan effect and OKC will be seeing same ol' plays around 15 more years from now on until some brave point guard has the guts to say that he is no longer relevant.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#22 » by spearsy23 » Thu Aug 29, 2019 10:12 pm

oken wrote:Pessimist take:
It's the Jerry Sloan effect and OKC will be seeing same ol' plays around 15 more years from now on until some brave point guard has the guts to say that he is no longer relevant.

Except Sloan was, you know, good.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#23 » by jambalaya » Thu Dec 12, 2019 8:36 pm

SGA, Dort, Diallo, Bazley... probably shouldn't by design play more than 2 at a time (or maybe just one). Definitely need to greatly prioritize shooting and passing around these IF these are important future pieces.

All four currently below league averages for efg% and ts%. SGA at just 14% assist rate. Diallo 6% , Bazley 4%, Dort 2%.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#24 » by Pillendreher » Sat Dec 14, 2019 9:57 am

jambalaya wrote:SGA at just 14% assist rate.


What gives? Are they just telling him to not think about passing/distributing? Last season he averaged 8.6 touches per potential assist, this season 9.6. Last season he averaged 1.3 touches per pass, this season 1.6.
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#25 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sat Dec 14, 2019 8:53 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
jambalaya wrote:SGA at just 14% assist rate.


What gives? Are they just telling him to not think about passing/distributing? Last season he averaged 8.6 touches per potential assist, this season 9.6. Last season he averaged 1.3 touches per pass, this season 1.6.


Could it be the Billy Dumbass effect?
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#26 » by jambalaya » Mon Dec 30, 2019 8:46 am

If they try to enhance what they have into the near future, they need a starting SF and PF to replace Ferguson and Gallinari.

The bench of Schroder, Diallo and Bazley plays well together. Schroder could start if C Paul is moved but that doesn't seem likely soon. I don't see Diallo or Bazley as ready for the starting lineup now on a contending team or likely to be good enough in mid-term. Or maybe ever but they'll get some time to tell.

Ferguson, Nader, Muscala could be kept around briefly as deep bench but shouldn't long term as draft picks get used. They do suggest types for future Presti bench players.

They probably should trade Noel or move on this summer. The boxscore looks good but the raw and adjusted plus minus do not.

Dort is a project with some promise. Hervey and Patton probably not. Burton probably not.

Could / should see up to 5 changes next season. 2-3 would be too few imo.

If they instead go for total rebuild, 8 or more should go and probably sooner than later.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#27 » by jambalaya » Sat Feb 8, 2020 2:32 am

Dort is ok with SGA but he is Dort's second worst pair.

Dort is an incredibly weak rebounder, on raw rebounding and rebounding RAPM factors. Will need to compensate for that, especially if he plays SF. Short-term play with Adams? Long-term probably need a super rebounder at PF or C.

Team offensive rebounding is pathetic. Lowest in league. Maybe it is part strategy to address fast breaks but Dort, Diallo, Bazley playing more likely means this getting even worse. Probably beyond acceptable.

By RAPM factors in general he isnt noteworthy strong anywhere. I might increase his usage 50-100% above current low rate for a month and see what happens.


Paul probably stays all of next year. Schroder? They might trade him unless they have given any real consideration to extending him.


Summer of 2021 might have a decision on him, extending SGA, trading Paul or buying him out, Adams, etc. Keeping Adams is mainly about price. I probably wouldn't go very high and he probably leaves one way or another. Summer of 2021 or before.

If one of the PF / C pair needs to be a great rebounder, the only probably should be strong on offense. 3 pt / pick n roll or both.

Will SGA be certified worth a big to max extension next summer? I think more likely no than yes. But he probably gets it anyways.


If SGA and Dort were the long-term wings, the long-term PG probably better be big and good at many things, especially 3 PT shooting and probably rebounding too.


Nader is not terrible as a deep deep bench piece but he is better at PF than the wing positions. He is weak at rebounding though. Probably let him walk.

Could a contender want Noel in a sign n trade? Not likely but maybe.

Ferguson probably gone within year. Don't see any reason to keep Burton or Hervey, though they might to demonstrate the pipeline and fill 13 &14 slots cheaply. Devon Hall still with Blue? Might get another call up some time in future. Abdul Gaddy? Probably Not but I guess there is a chance.


A new to team big salary seems pretty unlikely in next 18-30 months but if they get one, where should it be? I'd lean PF but of course it depends on many details to be determined before then.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#28 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sat Feb 8, 2020 4:25 am

If the season ended today the Thunder 2020 1st round pick would go to Philly.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#29 » by thor19 » Sat Feb 8, 2020 5:12 am

Kizz Fastfists wrote:If the season ended today the Thunder 2020 1st round pick would go to Philly.

Some mock draft say we get a pf/ c a guy like jalen smith or matthew hurt,isaiah stewart. I'm not going to ask who we are going to draft because Sam always chooses the one nobody knows
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#30 » by jambalaya » Sat Feb 8, 2020 10:07 am

Thunder PFs and Centers have played important roles but generally haven't been that prominent on scoring. There was Green and Ibaka but they were 3rd and 4th options. Durant played some PF but not a lot. Maybe too little. Gallinari is pretty prominent. But seems like a fluke rather than a design choice.

If you believe in Bazley then maybe it could be part of the future design. I don't particularly believe in Bazley at this time. I think I'd suggest it to be a design choice for more balance. Especially if no perimeter is a great 3 point weapon.

One could praise the past perimeter dominant years but if the goal has been and is a title that approach did not succeed. They were closest when their perimeter was the strongest it has been from 3 and when Ibaka was part of that.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#31 » by jambalaya » Sat Feb 8, 2020 10:34 am

If Paul and Schroder stay around, there is no tank. No tank and top draft picks are less likely. Consolidating draft picks to move up is theoretically possible but tends to be hard when it might actually be worth it. Maybe it happens if someone is undervalued. I dunno if that they might be case this draft. But seems like it might be easier to move up this draft than normal.



Without top picks, the design probably will be and need to be about depth of talent and fit. And coaching. Several playmakers, several PFs, several defenders. Several better than average 3 point shooters, better than average together on frequency and accuracy. Thunder tends to be bottom third and bottom half respectively in recent years and now and going forward unless the design, priority and players change significantly.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#32 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Feb 8, 2020 2:19 pm

Presti's blueprints for the rebuild were actually leaked at the deadline.

Spoiler:
Image



In all seriousness If Shai develops to an all star level and OKC maybe finds another player of his caliber in the draft that falls outside the top ten, there might not be a need to tank. Unfortunately this draft doesn't look like the best year to find that kind of a player but its definitely possible.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#33 » by jambalaya » Sun Feb 9, 2020 12:16 am

Bucks surround Giannis with mostly vets in rotation. Second oldest team this season. Favorites to win title.

Presti never even went to avg age of youngest champion.

What surrounds SGA in 3 years? Probably a very young team. 5-7 years? Could still be too young, unless Presti changes.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#34 » by ThunderBolt » Sun Feb 9, 2020 12:29 am

jambalaya wrote:Bucks surround Giannis with mostly vets in rotation. Second oldest team this season. Favorites to win title.

Presti never even went to avg age of youngest champion.

What surrounds SGA in 3 years? Probably a very young team. 5-7 years? Could still be too young, unless Presti changes.

I’m giving Sam until the start is next season before I make any definitive decisions on the rebuild. I think presti is probably the most polarizing part of thunder basketball. I sometimes think I’m the only person who doesn’t either love him unconditionally or think he’s the most incompetent person on earth.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#35 » by spearsy23 » Sun Feb 9, 2020 2:01 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
jambalaya wrote:Bucks surround Giannis with mostly vets in rotation. Second oldest team this season. Favorites to win title.

Presti never even went to avg age of youngest champion.

What surrounds SGA in 3 years? Probably a very young team. 5-7 years? Could still be too young, unless Presti changes.

I’m giving Sam until the start is next season before I make any definitive decisions on the rebuild. I think presti is probably the most polarizing part of thunder basketball. I sometimes think I’m the only person who doesn’t either love him unconditionally or think he’s the most incompetent person on earth.

I think he's a great gm for a young/tanking team and a bad one for a contender.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#36 » by ThunderBolt » Sun Feb 9, 2020 3:01 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
jambalaya wrote:Bucks surround Giannis with mostly vets in rotation. Second oldest team this season. Favorites to win title.

Presti never even went to avg age of youngest champion.

What surrounds SGA in 3 years? Probably a very young team. 5-7 years? Could still be too young, unless Presti changes.

I’m giving Sam until the start is next season before I make any definitive decisions on the rebuild. I think presti is probably the most polarizing part of thunder basketball. I sometimes think I’m the only person who doesn’t either love him unconditionally or think he’s the most incompetent person on earth.

I think he's a great gm for a young/tanking team and a bad one for a contender.

I have a harder time with the moves he made or didn’t make when Durant was here. Foye and Dion were bad moves, period. Reggie Jackson put the organization in a tough spot. I don’t have as big of a problem with the Kanter trade as I do with the contract he was given afterwards. What would this team have been with Durant, Russ. Dre, Adams and Sabonis? Ultimately it proved to be too late but it was a great move.

The last few years I don’t view them as the same. I thought they should have reset when Durant left. Most people weren’t in favor of that, so you have to look at what the realistic situation was with the cap space and assets. Not choosing to rebuild and giving Adams his contract are my two biggest frustrations with his post KD moves. For those that are critical of the last few years, I think those people also have to acknowledge that many of them were in favor of rebuilding around Russ with limited assets, cap space and time.

Patrick Patterson seemed like a really solid signing. He sucked and he still sucks for the Clippers.

I remember when the melo trade happened a lot of us were skeptical but understood the need to go for it if the goal was to build a win now team around Russ.

The George trade was viewed as a win by okc and also made sense at the time for a win-now team.

The Melo trade for Dennis wasn’t popular at the time but options were very limited with melo’s ntc.

Giving up a first for Grant and Dennis seemed like gross overpays at the time. Grant ended up returning a first and Dennis’ value is as high as it’s been.

I still don’t think Donovan is a great coach. I also am not sure how many great coaches could have changed Russ. Time will tell if Mike D’Antoni has really done so,

Again, it’s not black and white. Some seemingly good moves didn’t work out and some seemingly bad moves aren’t as bad as initially thought.

If you look around the league right now, what GM looks to be head and shoulders above what Sam has done? Masai? I’ll give you the one. When you look at the really good teams and their front offices, most of them have made some very questionable moves.

The spurs butchered the Kawhi trade and have held on too long to a mediocre aging core.

Everyone is praising pat riley right now but he’s the one who painted them in to a corner with so many bad contracts.

For those that argue Sam was too conservative to go for it KD’s final year, that fine. Would it have been different if Danny Ainge were marking our moves at the deadline?

Presti hasn’t found a coach like Steve Kerr or Popovich to build around a great young core and neither has Philly.

Does Morey get credit for finally fixing Russ? If so, then he’s neutered harden in the process while recklessly throwing away assets.

Go see what warrior fans thank of Bob Myers post Jerry west’s tenure right now.

Conversely, what have the lakers well done to deserve to sign a superstar and have others annually request trades there? We need to give Pelinka, Magic and Jeannie credit for SoCal weather.

Aside from the extremes of Jerry West and a Ernie Grunfeld, I don’t think the gap between everyone else is that great. You can argue so many of Sam’s decisions endlessly about what was good and bad at the time and in hindsight. Looking at the big picture the reality though is the thunder are not anywhere nearly as poorly ran as the Knicks, Hornets and a few others. I don’t think Sam is the only gm that can build a good team in okc but i dont think it’s fair to dismiss any and all success as luck.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#37 » by jambalaya » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:09 pm

Presti has very limited record with getting free agents in $5-10 mil / yr range. Kristic is probably the best such. It is a hard part of market to win at in general and small market but it could be very helpful to win a few of those in coming years, especially for an ensemble team.

Presti's practice has been to trade for these guys and extend. But that makes it subtract & add for little gain. If he, Weaver and Mohammed can't do better at this, maybe they should consider adding someone with either a proven record with this task or hire someone with that potential. Has Collison been involved with that at all yet? Will he?

They won't win many of the targets because of market factor with players. So they have to try to win with minutes & money and maybe especially with younger guys coming off minimum salaries or new on scene. Maybe take more gambles on upside. Not Patterson, Muscala types. C Wood, T Davis, D House, Theis, R O'Neale, K Nunn, etc. Guys ready to go, not needing years in G league to be developed / fixed. I am not saying it is easy. I am saying it would be helpful and maybe necessary to achieve goals.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#38 » by jambalaya » Mon Feb 10, 2020 11:42 pm

There are 3 positive (very positive) lineups in the 10 most used. 2 have the 3 Pgs, 2 have Noel and all 3 have Gallinari. Which will still be true next season? None? Whatever goes away, they probably should heavily consider explicit attempts to closely replicate what was lost. No guarantees but it offers some potentially useful guidance.

Those 3 lineups get about 10% of minutes. Which is totally whack and unacceptable but common for teams with coaches who apparently don't study or care about lineup data much and for organizations who are too hands off the coach to insist on interface with analysis and rational action based on it. Imo.

Dort with other starters are a horrible -15 pts / 100 poss. So test more, tweak it and be prepared to move on to something else if it doesnt show major improvement. Early data shows better results when either Noel replaces Adams or Schroder replaces Paul or SGA. That could mean more open lane / more pressure on it and / or more defensive ball pressure or quicker help. Or other stuff. Check the video.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#39 » by jambalaya » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:10 am

With discipline, they could play all 3 Pgs together 15 minutes per game and cover the rest of the time adequately. That probably should be the plan for playoffs. And next season if they want to have chance to be better than this season.
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Re: The grand design- same old or new? 

Post#40 » by Pillendreher » Wed Feb 12, 2020 9:59 am

ThunderBolt wrote:Giving up a first for Grant and Dennis seemed like gross overpays at the time. Grant ended up returning a first and Dennis’ value is as high as it’s been.


Not to dive into a big discussion about this here, but to me this sort of rationale ignores a simple fact: You can't change the past. The facts surrounding trades already made can't be altered. Grant was a massive overpay, simply because he was a very, very raw 2nd round pick whose only visible attribute was athleticism. It's good that he got a FRP back for him, but that doesn't change the fact that there was no way in hell that Grant was worth a FRP at the time of the trade in the first place.

The same goes for Schröder. Even if he can get slightly positive value back now, that doesn't mean that it was reasonable to waste a FRP for him in the first place. At the time of the trade other teams wouldn't even trade for Schröder for free. His value was that low.

Teams give themselves real shots at winning a title by not doing these kinds of things. As a GM, one of your main objectives is to make moves that lead to a positive return. Getting a FRP for Grant after buying lown on him would be a commendable overall move. Given the vast overpay in the first place, it's a wash at best and with them forcing him down the franchise's throat for years at the expense of team success, it's still a negative overall. That's the kind of **** that is always going to hold the whole franchise back.
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