Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player?

[madmaxmedia]

Borderline all-star, Mike Conley type is still my guess. Can be a solid 2nd best player or a great third.

I think this is pretty good prediction. He has a very low downside at this point IMO, so even if you don't view him as a franchise #1 guy he's still going to be a great asset to your team going forward.

[jambalaya]

Some talking points I missed earlier:

With SGA on court, Clippers' offense and defense both got worse by a couple points. Not all him but RPM estimates suggests it was partly him on both sides of the court.

Of 22 players for Clippers last season, SGA had the 5th lowest win% on team for while on the court.

[ThunderBolt]

The two lineups played with the most minutes for the clippers last year had shai in both of them. One had a net rating of -7.6 and the other of +9.3. The lineup with the positive net rating was a post trade deadline lineup. The negative net rating was pre trade deadline. Maybe rookies get better as the season progresses.

Shai finished with the year with a -2.0 net rating.
Jaren Jackson Jr -2.3
Luka Doncic -3.1
Marvin Bagley -3.2
Trae young -6.3
Deandre Ayton -8.1.

That’s better than the top 5 picks of last years draft.

[spearsy23]

Rookies pretty much always perform poorly in plus minus and adjusted stats. It means nothing except they're young.

[jambalaya]

I am mainly just listing information that is out there. Not drawing firm conclusions yet.

Those 2 lineups amounted to less than 30% of his total time. His overall raw +/- on the court was lousy 4 of the last 5 months of the season.

Those other rookies were on worse to far worse teams.

Bad plus minus isn't unusual for rookies and often changes but the point is to take a bit off the hype and wait longer for him to prove his quality level further.


Then again, there is this info (vs. rookie Russ): http://bkref.com/tiny/nB016 Compared to Russ he is off to a better start... because he can shoot better.

And by BPM he was top 25% for guards. But... that isn't so hot really. It put him between DJ Augustin & Reggie Jackson, and behind MCW. http://bkref.com/tiny/FGYc9

Or look at guards under 23 and he is basically 9th. http://bkref.com/tiny/UQapc Not bad. But not yet amazing. By BPM and RPM close to the mean but slightly below.

[ThunderBolt]

Those 2 lineups amounted to less than 30% of his total time. His overall raw +/- on the court was lousy 4 of the last 5 months of the season.

Those other rookies were on worse to far worse teams.

I'm not understanding. He doesn't get credit for being a part of one of the best and most used lineups the clippers played all season but other players get a pass for playing on lousy teams?

In the playoffs, he averaged 13.7 points (on 46.7/50/85 splits), 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.0 steals per game in 28.8 minutes.

He was 2nd Team All-Rookie with just a few votes behind Marvin Bagley for 1st Team. He had a true shooting percentage of 1/100th less than Luka at .554.

He might not be an all time talent, but you are nit picking him excessively. I've not heard anyone that watched him that doesn't think he showed a lot of great things as a rookie. Like I said, there is a reason Camelo projections have him as a future all star.

[jambalaya]

He gets credit for being a part of one of the best and most used lineups the clippers played all season... and all the others count too, more negative combined than positive. 4 of his 10 most used lineups were bad to horrendous. Overall his lineups were -1.7 pts per 100 possessions, while those without him were plus 4.7 pts.

Other players don't "get a pass for playing on lousy teams" but they also didn't get as much help from their teammates. Some of them were better than SGA, some worse.

NBA awards are often garbage but I am not either disputing or putting much emphasis on an all-rookie team vote.

9 of the 10 players 538 called his closest comparisons did not win a title (or ever got to the finals to my knowledge) and Barnes was a fairly modest part of one. That is a high bar, but it is more info. Also not that trusting of their projections when 8 of the 10 guys they say he is most like (and presumably used to project Shai) didn't play PG generally or at all. His build is nothing like Harden or Joe Johnson. Remove at least them and the only other major success in the other 8 was Arenas.

The left side of the 538 profile gives him 4 "bad' marks and 1 "good" with the rest in between.

Yes Shai had a pretty good offensive playoff series but probably not on shot defense.

Call it excessive if you feel that way. I'd call it exploring, balancing.

[Zack M]

Had a good game against the MAvs.

[jambalaya]

Shai, 2 games, just 2 assists total. Early, but something to watch.


Last season, he had 5 or more assists only about 25% of time. Over 5, only 1 in 8 games. 40% of time, 2 or less.

[jambalaya]

And now a zero assist game from him.

9 turnovers from the starting guards.

Quite the design & execution of an enhanced passing game.

[oreojenkins]

So far, so good.

[OkcSinceSGA]

And now a zero assist game from him.

9 turnovers from the starting guards.

Quite the design & execution of an enhanced passing game.

LOL. My man you need to really study his game. He's a solid playmaker at best, it's not his area of strength. With SGA you're getting a guy who can get to the rim at will, is lights out from mid range, can get in the passing lanes, can block shots and overall has a high IQ for decision making. He will probably never be a 7+ apg type of guy. Especially if your team continues to use him off ball next to CP3. I will say 26/5/4/2 steals/1.5 blocks or whatever he's putting up on excellent efficiency is pretty damn good.

[jambalaya]

I am studying his game, game by game, including the weak offensive game tonight.

I think he is a good player and could be a good leader. They don't seem to asking for much leadership from him yet but that time will come.

The question is how good he'll be and how smart / effective the design is around him. Is he going stay at SG in OKC? I had assumed he'd eventually go to PG and he probably will but it is not certain. Thunder might be evolving to a 2-3 ballhandler design long-term. Not these 3 but some 3 where SGA is not the clear / constant initiator. That might work for him. But it wasn't the design I was expecting.

[jambalaya]

Wherever SGA plays, his 2 future perimeter starting partners should be at minimum 1 very good 3 point shooter and 1 good distributor on offense. Better if good to very good on both of course.

I don't see any of the other young perimeter guys playing now as starters or desirable / good future starters in their own right and especially with SGA. Mostly or all backups, fighting to be backups or eventually gone.

Get Dort on the court for some looks.

[ThunderBolt]

Wherever SGA plays, his 2 future perimeter starting partners should be at minimum 1 very good 3 point shooter and 1 good distributor on offense. Better if good to very good on both of course.

I don't see any of the other young perimeter guys playing now as starters or desirable / good future starters in their own right and especially with SGA. Mostly or all backups, fighting to be backups or eventually gone.

Get Dort on the court for some looks.

There really aren’t many positions for which you don’t want a shooter. That’s why I’m not as high on Diallo as others. I think Bazley needs to fulls seasons before any kind of decision can be made. Hopefully at the trade deadline Dennis or Paul is gone, maybe both. I would to see Dort too but his shot it pretty broken too.

[sleestak33]

SGA is an all star already and he's a shooting guard not a point guard so I hope they screw up like they did with Russ and move him to PG when CP is gone. The starting shooting guard position has been a massive problem going back to Sefolosha and it's time they come to terms with what the NBA demands these days from starting wing players...tons of shooting and scoring. This kid can get it done...really like his game.

[jambalaya]

How long do they have to impress or satisfy SGA? Do they want him to take a big extension in fall 2021? Re-sign in summer 2022? Could SGA be rare guy to take qualifying offer and go UFA in 2023? If he is the cornerstone, then they probably can't afford to be bad long. Some of the future picks might get used to accelerate the recovery. Presti will resist but it will depend on what he can get away with. With SGA, fans and the owners.

[jambalaya]

Main teams who might go after SGA in RFA 2022 or UFA 2023 are probably Lakers, Clippers, TWolves, maybe Pelicans, Knicks, Magic, maybe Suns and perhaps Raptors. Or by trade by these or others if given chance.

[jambalaya]

In the early data, SGA has negative pairs with Paul and Ferguson. With both is a terrible trio. With Schroder is the best pair.

With Schroder and Paul, Adams and Gallinari is the best lineup tried over 10 minutes, Try it a hundred minutes in next 2-3 weeks. Donovan has gone to it 15 minutes in 5 games. If you want to win with what you got now, I'd use it far more and see what happens. Not that now matters, but it might illuminate the template for the future.

[Thunder Up]

Said it before, will say again.... Shai is the Kawhi Leonard of the PG/SG position