Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player?

[ThunderBolt]

He's literally a second year pro who only played a single season of college. jambalaya's vendetta against him is bizarre.

I think he’s been a little hard on him but i was probably Shai’s biggest supporter coming in to the season. The reality is his play has been somewhat concerning. It’s not that he can’t improve but it’s that he seems to be struggling in so many different phases of the game. He’s not great on defense. He’s too thin. His three point shooting has gone in the toilet and he seems unwilling to take that shot. In fact he seems to prefer shots where he’s in motion-running, falling, floating or fading. As a result his efficiency isn’t great. It would be nice to have a few more games from him lately that looked closer to what we saw early in the season.

[Galloisdaman]

He's literally a second year pro who only played a single season of college. jambalaya's vendetta against him is bizarre.

I think he’s been a little hard on him but i was probably Shai’s biggest supporter coming in to the season. The reality is his play has been somewhat concerning. It’s not that he can’t improve but it’s that he seems to be struggling in so many different phases of the game. He’s not great on defense. He’s too thin. His three point shooting has gone in the toilet and he seems unwilling to take that shot. In fact he seems to prefer shots where he’s in motion-running, falling, floating or fading. As a result his efficiency isn’t great. It would be nice to have a few more games from him lately that looked closer to what we saw early in the season.

Reality may be somewhere between your highest hopes and where SGA is now as a player. That would probably be a legit starter. Nothing wrong with that. There was only one Michael Jordan. If he is a starter that is a nice floor. If he becomes an all star then OKC did great in that trade. PG wanted out. PG is a great player but he did not want to be here so SGA, Gallo, and a bag of picks was a pretty solid trade. If GSA becomes a all star player then it goes from solid to very good in my opinion.

[ThunderBolt]

He's literally a second year pro who only played a single season of college. jambalaya's vendetta against him is bizarre.

I think he’s been a little hard on him but i was probably Shai’s biggest supporter coming in to the season. The reality is his play has been somewhat concerning. It’s not that he can’t improve but it’s that he seems to be struggling in so many different phases of the game. He’s not great on defense. He’s too thin. His three point shooting has gone in the toilet and he seems unwilling to take that shot. In fact he seems to prefer shots where he’s in motion-running, falling, floating or fading. As a result his efficiency isn’t great. It would be nice to have a few more games from him lately that looked closer to what we saw early in the season.

Reality may be somewhere between your highest hopes and where SGA is now as a player. That would probably be a legit starter. Nothing wrong with that. There was only one Michael Jordan. If he is a starter that is a nice floor. If he becomes an all star then OKC did great in that trade. PG wanted out. PG is a great player but he did not want to be here so SGA, Gallo, and a bag of picks was a pretty solid trade. If GSA becomes a all star player then it goes from solid to very good in my opinion.

A “legit starter” doesn’t cut it when you are the centerpiece of a trade for Paul George.

[Galloisdaman]

I think he’s been a little hard on him but i was probably Shai’s biggest supporter coming in to the season. The reality is his play has been somewhat concerning. It’s not that he can’t improve but it’s that he seems to be struggling in so many different phases of the game. He’s not great on defense. He’s too thin. His three point shooting has gone in the toilet and he seems unwilling to take that shot. In fact he seems to prefer shots where he’s in motion-running, falling, floating or fading. As a result his efficiency isn’t great. It would be nice to have a few more games from him lately that looked closer to what we saw early in the season.

Reality may be somewhere between your highest hopes and where SGA is now as a player. That would probably be a legit starter. Nothing wrong with that. There was only one Michael Jordan. If he is a starter that is a nice floor. If he becomes an all star then OKC did great in that trade. PG wanted out. PG is a great player but he did not want to be here so SGA, Gallo, and a bag of picks was a pretty solid trade. If GSA becomes a all star player then it goes from solid to very good in my opinion.

A “legit starter” doesn’t cut it when you are the centerpiece of a trade for Paul George.

That is the risk in trading for a young player but the risk was lessened with the inclusion of 5 first round picks, 2 first round swap options and Gallo. PG is a great player but that was also a large package they got for him. In 5 years people may be very happy with that return while PG will be around 35.

[QPR]

I think he’s been a little hard on him but i was probably Shai’s biggest supporter coming in to the season. The reality is his play has been somewhat concerning. It’s not that he can’t improve but it’s that he seems to be struggling in so many different phases of the game. He’s not great on defense. He’s too thin. His three point shooting has gone in the toilet and he seems unwilling to take that shot. In fact he seems to prefer shots where he’s in motion-running, falling, floating or fading. As a result his efficiency isn’t great. It would be nice to have a few more games from him lately that looked closer to what we saw early in the season.

Reality may be somewhere between your highest hopes and where SGA is now as a player. That would probably be a legit starter. Nothing wrong with that. There was only one Michael Jordan. If he is a starter that is a nice floor. If he becomes an all star then OKC did great in that trade. PG wanted out. PG is a great player but he did not want to be here so SGA, Gallo, and a bag of picks was a pretty solid trade. If GSA becomes a all star player then it goes from solid to very good in my opinion.

A “legit starter” doesn’t cut it when you are the centerpiece of a trade for Paul George.

That's a very simplistic view given the circumstances of the trade demand.

Point is he is the same age as many college players and he wasn't even a key player in college. There are going to be a lot of bumps as he finds his feet at this level and casting any sort of definitive judgement is silly at this point of his pro career.

[ThunderBolt]

Reality may be somewhere between your highest hopes and where SGA is now as a player. That would probably be a legit starter. Nothing wrong with that. There was only one Michael Jordan. If he is a starter that is a nice floor. If he becomes an all star then OKC did great in that trade. PG wanted out. PG is a great player but he did not want to be here so SGA, Gallo, and a bag of picks was a pretty solid trade. If GSA becomes a all star player then it goes from solid to very good in my opinion.

A “legit starter” doesn’t cut it when you are the centerpiece of a trade for Paul George.

That's a very simplistic view given the circumstances of the trade demand.

Point is he is the same age as many college players and he wasn't even a key player in college. There are going to be a lot of bumps as he finds his feet at this level and casting any sort of definitive judgement is silly at this point of his pro career.

No one is casting a judgment of what he is but on what he will become. If it’s just a solid starter then that’s going to be a disappointment for me. His value as a solid starter will be determined by his contract.

[Pillendreher]

Expectations regarding Gilgeous-Alexander are also based on the simple fact that the Thunder traded their two Superstars for him and a bunch of picks. We have no idea what's going to happen with those picks, which means that in order to rebuild successfully, he needs to become more than just a solid starter. You don't rebuild to end up with a Ricky Rubio level kind of player.

[thor19]

I think that SGA is playing out of position in his rookie year he was the pg or for short time a sg in okc his second year he is playing with cp3 and dennis and his playing more the sg and the sf, he is learning, a new position , playing without the ball, a new team

[ThunderBolt]

Regardless of what happens game to game, I said in the past that he should be evaluated at the end of next year, his third year. Even then nothing will be conclusive. There isn't much worth analyzing right now on this team so if I'm too high or low on a player after a game its more of a testament to boredom than actual belief. Ferguson looks completely useless but I still think he could be a decent player in a couple of years.

[Galloisdaman]

Expectations regarding Gilgeous-Alexander are also based on the simple fact that the Thunder traded their two Superstars for him and a bunch of picks. We have no idea what's going to happen with those picks, which means that in order to rebuild successfully, he needs to become more than just a solid starter. You don't rebuild to end up with a Ricky Rubio level kind of player.

Two?

[spearsy23]

Expectations regarding Gilgeous-Alexander are also based on the simple fact that the Thunder traded their two Superstars for him and a bunch of picks. We have no idea what's going to happen with those picks, which means that in order to rebuild successfully, he needs to become more than just a solid starter. You don't rebuild to end up with a Ricky Rubio level kind of player.

Rebuilding isn't about the player or picks you get in year 0. The trade(s) wasn't made for sga superstar, it was made for long term assets.

[Pillendreher]

Expectations regarding Gilgeous-Alexander are also based on the simple fact that the Thunder traded their two Superstars for him and a bunch of picks. We have no idea what's going to happen with those picks, which means that in order to rebuild successfully, he needs to become more than just a solid starter. You don't rebuild to end up with a Ricky Rubio level kind of player.

Rebuilding isn't about the player or picks you get in year 0. The trade(s) wasn't made for sga superstar, it was made for long term assets.

Gilgeous-Alexander is still the only actual thing they have received so far during the rebuild. You can't cheer for pick swaps. And you can't sell fans on them either.

[Galloisdaman]

PG is a great player. Usually the team that gets the best player wins the deal BUT This was basically at least a 7 for 1 deal. There is no way the LAC make it if the KL signing did not depend on it. It made sense for LA because of KL and OKC took advantage of that scenario. Is it fair to put it all on SGA's shoulders? Some great players came as draft picks after trades including Magic Johnson (not that happens often)

PG: 24.5ppg-6rpg

for

SGA: 18.6ppg-5.1rpg
Gallo: 18ppg-5.7rpg
2021 1st
2022 1st
2024 1st
2026 1st
2023 1st (protected)
2023 and 2025 swap options

[Old Man Game]

I've been skeptical of SGA, future franchise pillar, elite level player. But something dawned on me watching him the last couple games, if this dude can start getting to the line more he could be a poor man's James Harden. He's got that score on 3s and at the rim thing down already. He just needs to get to the line more and stop trying every crazy floater.

[jambalaya]

I am, in general, against giving a player more than he is due, too soon. My tone is more reaction to first generous takes on SGA in the mainstream (including Doc Rivers) than recent ones here.

Every overall metric I've looked at recently estimates him to be having a slight to mild negative overall impact right now. But let's see where he is in 18 months.

I only said previously they might want to consider trading him if he is not better in 18 months. I personally might consider sooner if he doesn't get better. I will consider many things because you do get stuff back in trades, maybe equal or better if you do it right. Presti won't though, so it doesn't really matter. With Presti, SGA almost certainly has 2.5 years and likely 4 plus years before trade consideration.

I know he is only a 2nd year. I do tend to be hard on young guys. He will probably get better, the question is how much? What second contract will he be able to get and be worth? The two might not match up so well. Young 20 pt (or near) scorers without much else impact tend to get overpaid.

Team does very well with SGA and Schroder on the court together. SGA without Schroder? About -9 pts per 100 possessions (roughly equivalent to a bottom 5 team level). So which is it to be going forward? Can they find someone who fits as well with him? Paul and SGA together is smack in middle at neutral. It might not be easy to win or win big with him.

[jambalaya]

More detail on team results guard for pairings with and without SGA:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612760&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=101108,203471,1628983

SGA can't play above neutral without Schroder. SGA and Paul without Schroder is terrible. Schroder does fine except without both.

All three together is dynamite.

Teams often under-utilize and even throw away things that work. Not everything that looks good in small samples is really long-term but it has more of a case than stuff that isn't as good so far.

[spearsy23]

More detail on team results guard for pairings with and without SGA:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612760&Season=2019-20&SeasonType=Regular%2BSeason&PlayerIds=101108,203471,1628983

SGA can't play above neutral without Schroder. SGA and Paul without Schroder is terrible. Schroder does fine except without both.

All three together is dynamite.

Teams often under-utilize and even throw away things that work. Not everything that looks good in small samples is really long-term but it has more of a case than stuff that isn't as good so far.

Shai without Ferguson is +4.8

[jambalaya]

Yes. Lots of ways to slice it. TFerg without SGA is nearly as good as the reverse. Neither is estimated to be a positive impact by RPM.

The only main rotation player pairs with SGA besides Schroder where team results are positive are with Adams and Diallo (mildly) and Nader (barely).

[Pillendreher]

+24 NetRtG for the 3 guard lineup is the most Donovan thing ever. They'd crack +50 if Felton were still here as the 4th PG on the floor.

[jambalaya]

Starting lineup for Thunder is performing poorly. Sticking with it is very Donovan.


Of the handful of lineups tested over 1- just 1- minute per game, the only 2 strong ones have Paul, Schroder and SGA together. They have been fabulous together. In short testing. 169 minutes of test. An average result of plus 14.5 points per 100 possessions for all such minutes (last I checked). I dunno if that choice itself is "Donovan". I wouldn't call it that. Playing it only 5.5 minutes per game does sound"Donovan". If I wanted to win more, I'd take that 5.5 minutes per game testing up to 15-20 minutes per game.

SGA without Schroder is bad. Moving to a future without Schroder and perhaps without Paul either appears the weakest path in terms of current performance. I would not want to travel that path. Or at least not without trying to replicate what is working now with other guards that can generate success with him.