Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player?

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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#21 » by madmaxmedia » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:46 pm

spearsy23 wrote:Borderline all-star, Mike Conley type is still my guess. Can be a solid 2nd best player or a great third.


I think this is pretty good prediction. He has a very low downside at this point IMO, so even if you don't view him as a franchise #1 guy he's still going to be a great asset to your team going forward.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#22 » by jambalaya » Mon Sep 9, 2019 12:00 am

Some talking points I missed earlier:

With SGA on court, Clippers' offense and defense both got worse by a couple points. Not all him but RPM estimates suggests it was partly him on both sides of the court.

Of 22 players for Clippers last season, SGA had the 5th lowest win% on team for while on the court.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#23 » by ThunderBolt » Mon Sep 9, 2019 12:22 am

The two lineups played with the most minutes for the clippers last year had shai in both of them. One had a net rating of -7.6 and the other of +9.3. The lineup with the positive net rating was a post trade deadline lineup. The negative net rating was pre trade deadline. Maybe rookies get better as the season progresses.

Shai finished with the year with a -2.0 net rating.
Jaren Jackson Jr -2.3
Luka Doncic -3.1
Marvin Bagley -3.2
Trae young -6.3
Deandre Ayton -8.1.

That’s better than the top 5 picks of last years draft.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#24 » by spearsy23 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:22 pm

Rookies pretty much always perform poorly in plus minus and adjusted stats. It means nothing except they're young.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#25 » by jambalaya » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:31 pm

I am mainly just listing information that is out there. Not drawing firm conclusions yet.

Those 2 lineups amounted to less than 30% of his total time. His overall raw +/- on the court was lousy 4 of the last 5 months of the season.

Those other rookies were on worse to far worse teams.

Bad plus minus isn't unusual for rookies and often changes but the point is to take a bit off the hype and wait longer for him to prove his quality level further.


Then again, there is this info (vs. rookie Russ): http://bkref.com/tiny/nB016 Compared to Russ he is off to a better start... because he can shoot better.

And by BPM he was top 25% for guards. But... that isn't so hot really. It put him between DJ Augustin & Reggie Jackson, and behind MCW. http://bkref.com/tiny/FGYc9

Or look at guards under 23 and he is basically 9th. http://bkref.com/tiny/UQapc Not bad. But not yet amazing. By BPM and RPM close to the mean but slightly below.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#26 » by ThunderBolt » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:20 pm

jambalaya wrote:Those 2 lineups amounted to less than 30% of his total time. His overall raw +/- on the court was lousy 4 of the last 5 months of the season.

Those other rookies were on worse to far worse teams.


I'm not understanding. He doesn't get credit for being a part of one of the best and most used lineups the clippers played all season but other players get a pass for playing on lousy teams?

In the playoffs, he averaged 13.7 points (on 46.7/50/85 splits), 2.7 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.0 steals per game in 28.8 minutes.

He was 2nd Team All-Rookie with just a few votes behind Marvin Bagley for 1st Team. He had a true shooting percentage of 1/100th less than Luka at .554.

He might not be an all time talent, but you are nit picking him excessively. I've not heard anyone that watched him that doesn't think he showed a lot of great things as a rookie. Like I said, there is a reason Camelo projections have him as a future all star.
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Re: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: potential franchise player? 

Post#27 » by jambalaya » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:53 pm

He gets credit for being a part of one of the best and most used lineups the clippers played all season... and all the others count too, more negative combined than positive. 4 of his 10 most used lineups were bad to horrendous. Overall his lineups were -1.7 pts per 100 possessions, while those without him were plus 4.7 pts.

Other players don't "get a pass for playing on lousy teams" but they also didn't get as much help from their teammates. Some of them were better than SGA, some worse.

NBA awards are often garbage but I am not either disputing or putting much emphasis on an all-rookie team vote.

9 of the 10 players 538 called his closest comparisons did not win a title (or ever got to the finals to my knowledge) and Barnes was a fairly modest part of one. That is a high bar, but it is more info. Also not that trusting of their projections when 8 of the 10 guys they say he is most like (and presumably used to project Shai) didn't play PG generally or at all. His build is nothing like Harden or Joe Johnson. Remove at least them and the only other major success in the other 8 was Arenas.

The left side of the 538 profile gives him 4 "bad' marks and 1 "good" with the rest in between.

Yes Shai had a pretty good offensive playoff series but probably not on shot defense.

Call it excessive if you feel that way. I'd call it exploring, balancing.

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