2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread

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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#641 » by Galloisdaman » Thu Apr 2, 2020 9:52 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Galloisdaman wrote:You are saying things but your links do not match up. Please show me where Fauchi said 2.5 million American deaths. Not all experts have said that. Please show me 10 experts (not all) that have called for 2.5 million Americans dead. Not you doing what you think the math should be.


No one is saying the number on TV. They are all giving percentages because the education system in America has been systematically destroyed so the masses are incapable of understanding what they are being told if it isn't simple enough for a toddler to understand. You can find the percentages all over the place.

"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to a projection that encompasses the range of the four scenarios. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

"A report published March 13 in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases adjusted for the potential time delay between hospitalization and death among cases in China. The authors estimated that, as of Feb. 11, the death rate from COVID-19 was as high as 12% in Wuhan, 4% in Hubei Province and 0.9% in the rest of China."

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

Before China started cooking the numbers to stop people from realizing how serious it was and that they needed to prepare the death rate reported was 12%. Then as it spread they lied about numbers and continue to. They are running cremations around the clock, but only reporting 5-10 deaths a day. If it is still in the 12% range then around the clock cremations make sense. If their deaths are back to normal it doesn't.

If you are incapable of understanding data then this will go over your head. If you actually understand the reality of this situation then you can put the numbers together. You can run your own extrapolation algorithm based on the data points and you'll know what is coming. I did my algorithms in January and as scary as they were they seem to have been optimistic as I didn't have us getting to this rate of infection and death for another 10 days or so. It is spreading faster then expected despite the attempts to slow it. We need to just tell everyone to return to normal and get it over with. All we are doing is delaying the inevitable.


With all due respect you are being intellectually dishonest. First of all it was you just earlier that said and I quote,
Kizz Fastfists wrote:Which of Fauci's lies should I believe? That 2.5M will die or that less then 200K will die? He has said both in the last 5 days.
Now after I ask for proof of your claim you back track and say he never actually said it.

Now you say they only speak in percentages because Americans are incapable of understanding. That is ridiculous. In fact Fauci has used estimates of the number of deaths in worst case scenarios just this week.

Then even in your own link you cherry pick the worst you can find and leave out the title and headline.

Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway.

Hopefully I can do some basic math since I was a economics major who has been very successful in the securities field.
Your computations are often taking worst case scenarios while ignoring all possible positive variables.
My eyes glaze over when reading alternative stat (not advanced stat) narratives that go many paragraphs long. If you can not make your point in 2 paragraphs it may not be a great point. :D
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#642 » by Kizz Fastfists » Thu Apr 2, 2020 10:47 pm

Since what we have seen so far is well beyond the "worst case" you need to be asking if they released their real worst case or if they are trying to call the best case the worst case to keep people calm. How much experience with the government and knowing what the real information is and what they share do you have? I spent enough time with the DoD to get sick of how much the government sugarcoats things they give to the public. We can revisit these numbers in 2 months if we are both still among the living. This is going to continue it's speedy growth for another 4-6 weeks then slow and decline for things to return to "normal" around July.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#643 » by mr570 » Fri Apr 3, 2020 2:30 pm

Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#644 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sun Apr 5, 2020 1:03 am

mr570 wrote:It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


The American people would not accept the required response if you were going to stall/stop this. It would mean shutting everything down until a cure/vaccine was created. Military on the streets keeping people inside by force. That means shooting you for the "greater good" if you stepped outside. The definition of "emergency workers" would be a few select grocery stores and pharmacies that would prepare food boxes and prescriptions that would be delivered on your doorstep. Medical facilities would be locked down and you would only get emergency care. You MIGHT be able to request certain items, but most likely it would be a generic box for everyone based on the number of people in the house.

As the initial response, it didn't help that at the very mention of shutting down borders the media started screaming "racist" at the politicians suggesting it. Then when it was done it was an "overreaction", "fear mongering" and "playing politics" by the media and one political party. Now revisionist history is trying to call it an under reaction. The real issue is the information China and WHO were putting out led to a delayed response because they were lying about the severity. I believe some of the initial numbers out of Wuhan, but after they started shutting down people that were trying to warn how bad it was the numbers started to be doctored along with other details like means of transmission. WHO was still claiming in mid-January that there was no human to transmission. Those who were calling out WHO and China were called "racist" and told to leave the conspiracy theories alone.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#645 » by slick_watts » Mon Apr 6, 2020 10:40 pm

kizz, you're all over the place, bro. hope all is well where ever you are. i'm concerned we will still be dealing with this in s. florida during hurricane season!
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#646 » by Kizz Fastfists » Tue Apr 7, 2020 12:19 am

I'm in OKC. Not leaving the area. Watching NYC close. It doesn't look good there. If society breaks down there it will spread like wildfire and it won't be pretty.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#647 » by getrichordie » Tue Apr 7, 2020 3:42 am

mr570 wrote:Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


Lol. You don't think from 1918 to 2020 our response has gotten better? Technology is better. Masks are better and more available. Medicine is better. Government response is better. The whole nine yards. Media has a lot of you in panic mode right now.

Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#648 » by Dadouv47 » Tue Apr 7, 2020 4:34 am

getrichordie wrote:
mr570 wrote:Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


Lol. You don't think from 1918 to 2020 our response has gotten better? Technology is better. Masks are better and more available. Medicine is better. Government response is better. The whole nine yards. Media has a lot of you in panic mode right now.

Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.


Stop saying bull*** for once. The flu kills less than 0.1%

Even if the coronavirus kills between 0.5 and 1% (probably closer or over 1% if you look at the countries that tested most of the population like South Korea) it still kills 10x more than the common flu.

Then you need to take into account the fact that the Coronavirus is also 2 or 3 times more contagious than the flu, which leads to a significant increase of cases and deaths.

You also have a lot of cases of coronavirus killing healthy young people while the common flu only kills 99,99% of old people.

And then, you see that a very big number of people are asymptomatic which makes it very difficult to control the spread of the pandemic.

Is it the most lethal virus? Of course not. H1N1 in 2009 had a higher lethality rate but it wasn't as contagious and there were no asymptomatic cases so it was easier to control the disease.

At least it was funny reading you making some stupid comments about the NBA. Now you are pathetic.

Take care and stay safe!
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#649 » by getrichordie » Tue Apr 7, 2020 4:42 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
mr570 wrote:Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


Lol. You don't think from 1918 to 2020 our response has gotten better? Technology is better. Masks are better and more available. Medicine is better. Government response is better. The whole nine yards. Media has a lot of you in panic mode right now.

Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.


Stop saying bull*** for once. The flu kills less than 0.1%

Even if the coronavirus kills between 0.5 and 1% (probably closer or over 1% if you look at the countries that tested most of the population like South Korea) it still kills 10x more than the common flu.

Then you need to take into account the fact that the Coronavirus is also 2 or 3 times more contagious than the flu, which leads to a significant increase of cases and deaths.

You also have a lot of cases of coronavirus killing healthy young people while the common flu only kills 99,99% of old people.

And then, you see that a very big number of people are asymptomatic which makes it very difficult to control the spread of the pandemic.

Is it the most lethal virus? Of course not. H1N1 in 2009 had a higher lethality rate but it wasn't as contagious and there were no asymptomatic cases so it was easier to control the disease.

At least it was funny reading you making some stupid comments about the NBA. Now you are pathetic.

Take care and stay safe!


Damn homie. Don’t get your panties in a twist. I was trying to reference the Spanish flu, not your run of the mill flu. Minor oversight.

You okay, bud?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#650 » by slick_watts » Tue Apr 7, 2020 3:49 pm

i'm not a fan of disaster pissing contests, in general.

this is a goddamn global pandemic that is killing lots of people and disrupting the way of life of billions. being an edge lord and minimizing these impacts by comparing them to possibly greater tragedies of the past is a coping mechanism. i remember it during and after 9/11 and during and after hurricanes.

here's my policy. if someone wants to compare COVID to the spanish flu or the plague i don't give a crap. we're at the stage of disaster response where it's best to be pragmatic and levelheaded, but it's only slightly worse to be possibly overly reactive. the worst possible thing is to minimize. so i won't engage in any argument where i might evoke such a sentiment.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#651 » by getrichordie » Tue Apr 7, 2020 6:14 pm

slick_watts wrote:i'm not a fan of disaster pissing contests, in general.

this is a goddamn global pandemic that is killing lots of people and disrupting the way of life of billions. being an edge lord and minimizing these impacts by comparing them to possibly greater tragedies of the past is a coping mechanism. i remember it during and after 9/11 and during and after hurricanes.

here's my policy. if someone wants to compare COVID to the spanish flu or the plague i don't give a crap. we're at the stage of disaster response where it's best to be pragmatic and levelheaded, but it's only slightly worse to be possibly overly reactive. the worst possible thing is to minimize. so i won't engage in any argument where i might evoke such a sentiment.


Who is minimizing impact here by comparing them to greater tragedies?
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#652 » by slick_watts » Tue Apr 7, 2020 8:09 pm

getrichordie wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i'm not a fan of disaster pissing contests, in general.

this is a goddamn global pandemic that is killing lots of people and disrupting the way of life of billions. being an edge lord and minimizing these impacts by comparing them to possibly greater tragedies of the past is a coping mechanism. i remember it during and after 9/11 and during and after hurricanes.

here's my policy. if someone wants to compare COVID to the spanish flu or the plague i don't give a crap. we're at the stage of disaster response where it's best to be pragmatic and levelheaded, but it's only slightly worse to be possibly overly reactive. the worst possible thing is to minimize. so i won't engage in any argument where i might evoke such a sentiment.


Who is minimizing impact here by comparing them to greater tragedies?


be safe.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#653 » by getrichordie » Tue Apr 7, 2020 8:49 pm

slick_watts wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i'm not a fan of disaster pissing contests, in general.

this is a goddamn global pandemic that is killing lots of people and disrupting the way of life of billions. being an edge lord and minimizing these impacts by comparing them to possibly greater tragedies of the past is a coping mechanism. i remember it during and after 9/11 and during and after hurricanes.

here's my policy. if someone wants to compare COVID to the spanish flu or the plague i don't give a crap. we're at the stage of disaster response where it's best to be pragmatic and levelheaded, but it's only slightly worse to be possibly overly reactive. the worst possible thing is to minimize. so i won't engage in any argument where i might evoke such a sentiment.


Who is minimizing impact here by comparing them to greater tragedies?


be safe.


you too. *blows kisses* :lol:
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#654 » by Kizz Fastfists » Tue Apr 7, 2020 9:31 pm

getrichordie wrote:Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.


Do know that is a lie or are you just ignorant of case mortality rate statistics? If you are going to take case mortality rate you multiple the final number, .55, times 100! That means a 5.5% mortality rate. So the total deaths, globally, is currently 81,502 and we divide that by the total cases, 1,418,730 and we get 0.0574. Now we take 0.0574 times 100 and we get 5.74. That makes 5.74% the current global mortality rate.

CDC wrote:EXAMPLE: Calculating Case-Fatality Rates
In an epidemic of hepatitis A traced to green onions from a restaurant, 555 cases were identified. Three of the case-patients died as a result of their infections. Calculate the case-fatality rate.

Case fatality rate = (3 ⁄ 555) × 100 = 0.5%


https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html

Unless you know more about disease and mortality rates than the CDC. If we only use closed cases the number is currently 21% death rate. The final mortality rate when this is over and we are only looking at closed cases with no more pending will end up between 12-16%. The REAL numbers are VERY scary, but don't expect to see them on TV from your government. Their job is to keep the herd calm and in line not to educate and inform them. The two day lull was nice, but today we already over 1800 US deaths with only 69 more people reported recovered today then dying from it today.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#655 » by getrichordie » Tue Apr 7, 2020 9:50 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
getrichordie wrote:Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.


Do know that is a lie or are you just ignorant of case mortality rate statistics? If you are going to take case mortality rate you multiple the final number, .55, times 100! That means a 5.5% mortality rate. So the total deaths, globally, is currently 81,502 and we divide that by the total cases, 1,418,730 and we get 0.0574. Now we take 0.0574 times 100 and we get 5.74. That makes 5.74% the current global mortality rate.

CDC wrote:EXAMPLE: Calculating Case-Fatality Rates
In an epidemic of hepatitis A traced to green onions from a restaurant, 555 cases were identified. Three of the case-patients died as a result of their infections. Calculate the case-fatality rate.

Case fatality rate = (3 ⁄ 555) × 100 = 0.5%


https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section3.html

Unless you know more about disease and mortality rates than the CDC. If we only use closed cases the number is currently 21% death rate. The final mortality rate when this is over and we are only looking at closed cases with no more pending will end up between 12-16%. The REAL numbers are VERY scary, but don't expect to see them on TV from your government. Their job is to keep the herd calm and in line not to educate and inform them. The two day lull was nice, but today we already over 1800 US deaths with only 69 more people reported recovered today then dying from it today.


Multiplied by 10 instead of 100. Whoops!!! I don't know how closed cases relates to the raw numbers from worldodometer, other than that they are closed cases, so I didn't look at those. Make one mistake on RealGM and get roasted... :nod:
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#656 » by Kizz Fastfists » Wed Apr 8, 2020 12:35 am

.55% compared to 5.5% is HUGE. That one decimal point is significant. If half the US population gets sick with a .55% death rate it is only 9K deaths deaths, but at 5.5% death rate it is 9M. At a 70% infection rate and 5.5% death rate that is 12.6M dead Americans when this is over. That is going to leave us with an economic disaster of it's own without factoring in all the money the government is printing/giving right now which will cause serious inflation when this is over.

I never liked shutting everything down and I am one of the people who expected this to be a big time killer BEFORE the government started shutting down the border and doing other things. I also view this as natural selection and nature thinning the herd which is actually good for the species. Yes, I am completely detached from the reality that I could die from this and my parents will most likely die if they get it when formulating these views because my emotional response has nothing to do with logic. I am more concerned about how people will react to being shut in and how society will react. If we at least maintain the illusion of normal life as your friends and loved ones dying of a pandemic you can go to the bar, go watch cage fighting, go get in a boxing ring at a gym or whatever you normally would do in that situation to cope.

Now all you can do is sit at home and focus on the grief. That is unhealthy and I expect us to see a massive spike in domestic violence, suicide and assault as a result of this. Some people focus on their work to cope, but a lot of people can't do that now. Whatever hobby or activity you would be doing is going to be harder because of this. Not just from the ability to get what you might need from places being closed, but also from the financial aspect of not having a paycheck. I work in an essential job, but that is a double-edged sword. I'm guaranteed to keep my paycheck, but I'm also at very high risk of exposure.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#657 » by mr570 » Thu Apr 9, 2020 12:24 am

getrichordie wrote:
mr570 wrote:Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


Lol. You don't think from 1918 to 2020 our response has gotten better? Technology is better. Masks are better and more available. Medicine is better. Government response is better. The whole nine yards. Media has a lot of you in panic mode right now.

Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.

You're misunderstanding the premise of response.

A response begins and ends with identifying the threat and taking action to mitigate the threat.

That is "response."

It has nothing to do with the technology you have, the type of medicine you practice, the type of government which oversees you.

If it did, then we really are truly **** when a virus comes along that is beyond the scope of our tools to handle. That's it for civilization - goodbye! You and everyone you know would be dead.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#658 » by getrichordie » Thu Apr 9, 2020 3:39 am

mr570 wrote:
getrichordie wrote:
mr570 wrote:Everyone safe? Lot of names online here and elsewhere I would be really sad to never see again.

@getrichordie I suggest you step back a bit from "research" and consider why the Spanish flu got as bad as it did. It was precisely because of a poor response. A slow and inefficient response. And that's all I will say on that.


Lol. You don't think from 1918 to 2020 our response has gotten better? Technology is better. Masks are better and more available. Medicine is better. Government response is better. The whole nine yards. Media has a lot of you in panic mode right now.

Do you know what the raw numbers suggest the global mortality rate is? Roughly ~0.55%... Point. 5. 5. Percent. I've been saying all along that this is nowhere near as fatal as the flu and this isn't going to be near Spanish Flu levels. The numbers bear that out.

You're misunderstanding the premise of response.

A response begins and ends with identifying the threat and taking action to mitigate the threat.

That is "response."

It has nothing to do with the technology you have, the type of medicine you practice, the type of government which oversees you.

If it did, then we really are truly **** when a virus comes along that is beyond the scope of our tools to handle. That's it for civilization - goodbye! You and everyone you know would be dead.


Response is a very broad term. That’s all I will say. Not going to get into semantics.

I will say this, though. The kind of response you are talking about just isn’t practical in the real world. The real world cannot be compared to some laboratory where there are all types of controls in place to prevent the breakout of a virus of this nature.

Maybe you can control some of the lesser biological agents, sure. But it’s damn near impossible to identify viruses such as COVID-19, backtrack every single individual who came into contact with it and quarantine them.

Yeah, just not going to happen.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#659 » by Galloisdaman » Thu Apr 9, 2020 9:13 pm

I'm not making light of anyone dying but these numbers do not seem gigantic to me in a country of 350 million nor a world with 7 billion. Is it serious? Yes. Is it tragic? Yes. Should we do everything we can within reason to slow it? Of course but dont like 7000 people on average die every day in the USA? Dont around 60 million die a year in the world? Arent around 150 million born a year in the world? That does not mean I take anyone's deaths or this situation lightly. I'm just looking at the total numbers so far.
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Re: 2019-20 OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 

Post#660 » by Kizz Fastfists » Thu Apr 9, 2020 9:51 pm

I'll try to put the increase into perspective. On an average day NYC police find 25 dead people in the homes from calls to check on a neighbor/loved one that isn't responding to phone calls and the door. Yesterday there were over 200. That is a HUGE increase proportionately to deaths. From the information I was given those are not being included in the coronavirus death toll because they are not people that had been diagnosed. They might be saving the blood work to go back and test them later to add to the final total in a few months, but I'm not certain they will.

There are so many EXTRA deaths in NYC right now that the national guard is having to go around and collect the bodies and put them in refrigerated truck. This is also still in the early stages. We are still weeks, 3-5, from the peak with exponential case grown and thus deaths. If 1% of the US population dies from this over a 5 month period that is "only" 3.2M EXTRA deaths or 21K a day on average. The system is not set up to handle that.

Not to mention the overflow in hospitals that we are seeing in places like NYC and NOLA that are going to continue to spread through the nation. They just broke the bad news to the brainless masses that this doesn't slow down in warm weather. I'd only heard that myth about 50 times. I'm not sure Fauci isn't suffering from the same mental deterioration that Joe Biden is suffering from. The Washington Post ran an article the other day about how deaths are being under reported because of lack of ability to test them all because of the increase in corpses.

While I am not in favor of how this is being handled it is being done to limit deaths from this disease which will be the end result. It will also likely increase deaths from other issues. I told my cardiologist today that I'd just assume get it now before everyone else does and there is a lack of resources. She thought I was nuts because I'm technically in the at risk group. We agreed that it would end up hitting everyone so given the current case mortality rate is around 5% in the US that is a LOT of extra corpses that we don't have the infrastructure to process in that short of a time frame. I've said from the start I want everything left open and let it just plow through and let natural selection take it's course. Given there have been some medicinal advances to fight this through experimenting with different existing drugs it might end up with "only" 2% mortality rate.

Keep in mind that based on what we know from China is that after boarding everyone inside in Wuhan when they opened it back up the virus had another big wave and they had to lock everyone back inside. Now that they have opened it back up again there are rumors that it is getting bad again. Take that with a grain of salt as anything we hear out of China, although this wasn't from their media, is highly regulated. China is claiming they are only getting 20-30 new cases a day with 2-5 deaths. Either China has beaten it or they are lying. Their cremation centers have smoke coming out 24/7, based on satellite, so I'm going with lying. This is also jumping from humans to cats. Will it jump to dogs? Will it jump to other animals? Will it mutate in other animals and then jump a new strain in humans that is immune to current treatments that are semi-effective?
"The biggest enemy of the negro is the white liberal." - Malcolm X

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