ThunderBolt wrote:Spoiler:Dadouv47 wrote:ThunderBolt wrote:I'm not understanding what you are proposing. The top 4 protection for Houston is a way to salvage a potentially bad situation. We don't really have win now players for a team like Houston. Something related to this?
Not really.I will try to explain better (even if I don't know the right value about removing this kind of protection).
Let's assume the Rockets are a lock to finish with the 7th or 8th record so they have almost 32% or a bit lower of getting a top 4 pick. My question is what is the right value we should offer the Rockets to remove the protection on their pick.
For OKC, we have so many picks that I think it's worth gambling because the risk/reward is pretty good. For Houston it's more difficult obviously, but depending on the offer they make accept because they will have a 70% of winning value for nothing.
So yeah let's say Presti offers the 2024 Houston FRP and another small asset back to Houston to gamble on the 2021 draft. Would you do it? I would. My issue is that probably Houston will ask for more and it's difficult to measure the value of removing the protection because of the uncertainty/luck factor and having such a strong top 5 in this draft.
I assume you mean the 7th or 8th worse record in the league. So this would be after the season has ended but before the lottery. At that point I wouldn't expect either team to make a trade without knowing the exact value of Houston's pick. It would be really foolish for us to give up assets for a pick that we potentially already own. I guess there are always possibilities but I can't come up with a realistic situation where that happens. I don't think there is a known value for this type of trade.
The only way I foresee us getting two top 5 picks without trading Shai is if the Miami pick ends up top 5 alongside our own top 5 pick. As of today, the Miami and Houston picks are both better than our own. Probably need butler and bam to miss extended time for that to last.
I agree that it's difficult to have any idea of the value of it because I have never seen that kind of trade but also we have a record of future FRPs so I kind of disagree that it would be foolish to try. We have way too many picks and a 30% chance of picking top 4 instead of +/-20 with the Miami pick is huge. But yeah probably Houston would want way too much because a FRP is not close to the potential reward they could get from a top 4 pick.