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I'm actually worried they won't covey because they'll fall in the top 4.

But for now, let's celebrate

cjmcallist wrote:I'm actually worried they won't covey because they'll fall in the top 4.

But for now, let's celebrate

Even if the rockets rebuild, there is still no guarantee they get in the top 4. Look at the Knicks this year. I can't imagine that we wouldn't get something from them. Also, I still think there is potential for the Clippers picks to be great too, especially if the fall short again next year.

ThunderBolt wrote:

cjmcallist wrote:I'm actually worried they won't covey because they'll fall in the top 4.

But for now, let's celebrate

Even if the rockets rebuild, there is still no guarantee they get in the top 4. Look at the Knicks this year. I can't imagine that we wouldn't get something from them. Also, I still think there is potential for the Clippers picks to be great too, especially if the fall short again next year.

I agree - the stock on these picks is very high. If we can tank for two years, get two high picks, we should be just rolling into the playoffs in 2024 (fingers crossed) with 4 extra picks.

What's the prediction on what happens to their team? I see them rolling out basically the same squad next year, then Harden forcing a trade either next season before the deadline or the year after. Seems like high draft picks are an unlikely return given that Harden will be on the team, so it'll likely be a Ben Simmons-esque guy, right? Flawed young player on a decent team that isn't a superstar along with mid to late picks? If they wait until the year after next, I can't see them getting a huge package, given that he can opt out. Something like the Butler deal that got Minny Covington and Saric and a second rounder.

jake_swivel wrote:What's the prediction on what happens to their team? I see them rolling out basically the same squad next year, then Harden forcing a trade either next season before the deadline or the year after. Seems like high draft picks are an unlikely return given that Harden will be on the team, so it'll likely be a Ben Simmons-esque guy, right? Flawed young player on a decent team that isn't a superstar along with mid to late picks? If they wait until the year after next, I can't see them getting a huge package, given that he can opt out. Something like the Butler deal that got Minny Covington and Saric and a second rounder.

I predict they run it back this year. Depending on the coach they pick, I could see them trying to move to a more traditional line up. I think the much discussed Gordon/Horford swap could work.

Will be real interesting to watch. The new GM was apparently a part of the group that facilitated Fertitta's purchase of the team. That doesn't typically bode well for basketball decisions.

cjmcallist wrote:

jake_swivel wrote:What's the prediction on what happens to their team? I see them rolling out basically the same squad next year, then Harden forcing a trade either next season before the deadline or the year after. Seems like high draft picks are an unlikely return given that Harden will be on the team, so it'll likely be a Ben Simmons-esque guy, right? Flawed young player on a decent team that isn't a superstar along with mid to late picks? If they wait until the year after next, I can't see them getting a huge package, given that he can opt out. Something like the Butler deal that got Minny Covington and Saric and a second rounder.

I predict they run it back this year. Depending on the coach they pick, I could see them trying to move to a more traditional line up. I think the much discussed Gordon/Horford swap could work.

Will be real interesting to watch. The new GM was apparently a part of the group that facilitated Fertitta's purchase of the team. That doesn't typically bode well for basketball decisions.

Man, that would really bail Houston out if they could swing a gordon/horford trade. I only see that as a positive for the sixers by means of salary and I guess roster balance. But I also don't know who else would want horford at that price, so I guess it's a possibility. I'd think the sixers would want covington back in that scenario, too? I'd be super annoyed as a philly fan unless covington came back. And even then I'd be ambivalent.

Hollinger and Duncan nba show podcast basically speculated the same thing. Houston runs it back for one more year but Hardens value will never be higher than it is now. Tillman was the one who originally like Russ so I suspect he believes that his quad injury along with COVID was the reason for russ’ playoff struggles.

ThunderBolt wrote:Hollinger and Duncan nba show podcast basically speculated the same thing. Houston runs it back for one more year but Hardens value will never be higher than it is now. Tillman was the one who originally like Russ so I suspect he believes that his quad injury along with COVID was the reason for russ’ playoff struggles.

It's just so difficult to trade Harden without having control of your future. I do think WB can still carry a team. They could flip Harden for something now and something later. But, that requires a ton of risk and it's less likely they win a championship. Might save the future of the franchise though.

jake_swivel wrote:

cjmcallist wrote:

jake_swivel wrote:What's the prediction on what happens to their team? I see them rolling out basically the same squad next year, then Harden forcing a trade either next season before the deadline or the year after. Seems like high draft picks are an unlikely return given that Harden will be on the team, so it'll likely be a Ben Simmons-esque guy, right? Flawed young player on a decent team that isn't a superstar along with mid to late picks? If they wait until the year after next, I can't see them getting a huge package, given that he can opt out. Something like the Butler deal that got Minny Covington and Saric and a second rounder.

I predict they run it back this year. Depending on the coach they pick, I could see them trying to move to a more traditional line up. I think the much discussed Gordon/Horford swap could work.

Will be real interesting to watch. The new GM was apparently a part of the group that facilitated Fertitta's purchase of the team. That doesn't typically bode well for basketball decisions.

Man, that would really bail Houston out if they could swing a gordon/horford trade. I only see that as a positive for the sixers by means of salary and I guess roster balance. But I also don't know who else would want horford at that price, so I guess it's a possibility. I'd think the sixers would want covington back in that scenario, too? I'd be super annoyed as a philly fan unless covington came back. And even then I'd be ambivalent.

Strangely enough, I bet the Lakers championship increased Horford's value a little bit. I think teams are looking for versatile big men defenders. Until this last year, he was a versatile big man defender. Someone is more likely to take a chance on him.

cjmcallist wrote:

ThunderBolt wrote:Hollinger and Duncan nba show podcast basically speculated the same thing. Houston runs it back for one more year but Hardens value will never be higher than it is now. Tillman was the one who originally like Russ so I suspect he believes that his quad injury along with COVID was the reason for russ’ playoff struggles.

It's just so difficult to trade Harden without having control of your future. I do think WB can still carry a team. They could flip Harden for something now and something later. But, that requires a ton of risk and it's less likely they win a championship. Might save the future of the franchise though.

I don't think Russ can carry a team. He really hasn't proven that since Durant left. Now there have been some extenuating circumstances with roster construction but even this year he was horrible, great and horrible again. Part of carrying a team requires consistency and good health. Those are things that are becoming more difficult for him every year.

ThunderBolt wrote:I don't think Russ can carry a team. He really hasn't proven that since Durant left. Now there have been some extenuating circumstances with roster construction but even this year he was horrible, great and horrible again. Part of carrying a team requires consistency and good health. Those are things that are becoming more difficult for him every year.

And there's gonna be a tipping point for him when he isn't the most athletic guy on the court anymore. It's not gonna be a slight dropoff. His field goal percentage is gonna drop off a cliff.

jake_swivel wrote:

ThunderBolt wrote:I don't think Russ can carry a team. He really hasn't proven that since Durant left. Now there have been some extenuating circumstances with roster construction but even this year he was horrible, great and horrible again. Part of carrying a team requires consistency and good health. Those are things that are becoming more difficult for him every year.

And there's gonna be a tipping point for him when he isn't the most athletic guy on the court anymore. It's not gonna be a slight dropoff. His field goal percentage is gonna drop off a cliff.

Just posted in the T&T thread, should've posted here...

I agree, Russ is clearly headed downhill. By carry a team, I'm thinking be the main guy and get ~45 wins. That standard might be lower than others.

In my mind, a decimated franchise is a bottom 5 franchise, not competing for a playoff spot, and no control over their picks. With Russ + that roster, I think HOU could compete for the playoffs. Make it most years. They can make trades (maybe Harden, maybe not) to keep them playoff-competitive until their traded picks convey.

If they trade Harden, I think they can get a solid return. Not a PG13 return, but still enough to float the franchise. Don't roast me for this, I'm just spitballing. Something like:

Harden, Tucker, House for Murray, MPJ, Harris?
Harden for Gobert, Mitchell?
Harden, House, Covington for Brown, Hayward, #14, #26, #30

I also think their other players can be swapped for younger, longer term value.

Covington, House for Collins, Simons, POR FRP
Covington, SRP for Richardson, Thybulle

cjmcallist wrote:
If they trade Harden, I think they can get a solid return. Not a PG13 return, but still enough to float the franchise. Don't roast me for this, I'm just spitballing. Something like:

Harden, Tucker, House for Murray, MPJ, Harris?
Harden for Gobert, Mitchell?
Harden, House, Covington for Brown, Hayward, #14, #26, #30

I think Utah would be crazy to trade gobert/Mitchell. They wouldn’t have enough to win with and Harden would be unlikely to resign.

Denver is set up so well right now with having joker/Murray/Harris/mpj locked down right now. All are the same age range. I don’t know that they’d want to shorten that window, but maybe? MPJ just put up 50/40/80 percentages his rookie year at 6’10. That’s pretty damn special. I’d want to continue with that core, personally. Also, you’d be taking the ball out of jokic’s hands and that’s where a ton of his value is.

That Boston trade is interesting. I think it fits really well for both teams. It’s the best return I think Houston could hope for and leaves Boston with enough to win with. And I think Boston is one of the handful of teams that he’d want to resign with.

Harden’s value drops off a cliff if he isn’t traded this season, unless he agrees to an extension with the trade. Which way limits the teams that can make an offer.

Stephen Silas hired. Don't envy a first time head coach having to manage that situation. God bless.