2021 NBA Draft Thread

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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#361 » by retrobro90 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:01 am

bondom34 wrote:TBH really like Wagner myself. I haven't been sold on a ton of guys in this draft, and there are a few solid wings after the consensus top 5 who might not be stars but I think will be very good players. At some point think they've gotta have someone who's a bit of a known instead of continually swinging on high upside/low floor types. Granted some are unknown where they are in that spectrum, but Wagner, Moody, to some extent Bouknight, and even Kispert I like quite a bit right now if they end up later lotto. Right now the only guys I'm super high on in the top 5 are Cunningham and Suggs, so a Suggs/Wagner draft would be a great draft day to me as of now.

Getting a Mikal Bridges type guy would be a massive win (not him specifically but that type of player).


But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#362 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:11 am

retrobro90 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:TBH really like Wagner myself. I haven't been sold on a ton of guys in this draft, and there are a few solid wings after the consensus top 5 who might not be stars but I think will be very good players. At some point think they've gotta have someone who's a bit of a known instead of continually swinging on high upside/low floor types. Granted some are unknown where they are in that spectrum, but Wagner, Moody, to some extent Bouknight, and even Kispert I like quite a bit right now if they end up later lotto. Right now the only guys I'm super high on in the top 5 are Cunningham and Suggs, so a Suggs/Wagner draft would be a great draft day to me as of now.

Getting a Mikal Bridges type guy would be a massive win (not him specifically but that type of player).


But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.

Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#363 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:32 am

Starting this by saying PD Web is a good follow, but he just wrote a longer piece that I still haven't entirely dug into but a big part of it hit me in terms of draft strategy overall:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vwkCkSLHUVn2WL4u_aHQE-qVsATQT8gT1tZtQlJyuTo/edit

There are basically 2 ways to beat the NBA salary cap -

1) get a true star that cannot be paid commensurate to their production because of the artificial ceiling on wages installed by the CBA.
Bron, Giannis, Steph, etc cannot be paid properly. I’ve seen studies that say they are worth at least like 70 million in on court value alone. Stars are beyond priceless.

2) get good players on cheap rookie deals before their “true” value can be represented on the open market or thru CBA facets that their market

This is a fairly agreed on point and one that has separated “good” and “bad” GMs in public imagination for like a decade. Rookies are underpaid in the CBA and by dint of the draft meta, older players, players with enticing playstyles & players who need a specific situation all fall into draft slots of great value. It’s hard, but not impossible to get “fair” value out of players outside these two categories without having a philosophical, tactical or synergistic edge (which will all fade as the league tries to copycat whatever works)

So there are broadly two major styles of drafting, swinging for player type 1 (stars), or getting as many player type 2s (role-players) until a player 1 (star) becomes available in a trade or through the draft. The timing challenge, regardless of approach, is aligning the star with producing young players- riding a cheap golden generation into success, firm in the knowledge that the star’s true market value is capped and that the star takes up enough of the cap to build pareto optimality with the contract structures “naturally”. Hopefully, the teams wins enough, the role-players are scouted and developed into good structural fits for the star’s game, and (most importantly) are happier with winning here than producing more in other situations. As it is very very very hard to suit up a full roster paying multiple young good players a max or near max - and if a role-player develops into a star at a “inconvenient” time for the contract structure and wants to test their own ability as the top dog… there is a corollary to the “stars value can’t be reflected in contracts” and it’s “star’s true value also can’t be reflected in trades”.

If you were scripting out the tropes of the nba draft to a new observer it would look like this-

1-5 Franchise

6-14 Star & star in their role

15-30 Small bets and contributors
Every draft has a different talent level, but it’s an entirely random distribution of the basketball landscape. Intellectually there are a few different dropoffs between this group but the biggest difference between top 15 and top 35 is the preferred style of contract. The second round contract had historical problems in the event that an awesome player were to slip, (see Gilbert Arenas). Basically the 7 year lock-down of the first round contract is a huge win for an org.


It goes on in the draft, and further into some other concepts but that part hit me. If you get those guys who are stars in their roles with those slots, you're getting low priced players who are really good and really valuable. And you've got avenues to improve other ways with the assets available.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#364 » by Dn4sty » Fri Apr 23, 2021 12:55 am

bondom34 wrote:
retrobro90 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:TBH really like Wagner myself. I haven't been sold on a ton of guys in this draft, and there are a few solid wings after the consensus top 5 who might not be stars but I think will be very good players. At some point think they've gotta have someone who's a bit of a known instead of continually swinging on high upside/low floor types. Granted some are unknown where they are in that spectrum, but Wagner, Moody, to some extent Bouknight, and even Kispert I like quite a bit right now if they end up later lotto. Right now the only guys I'm super high on in the top 5 are Cunningham and Suggs, so a Suggs/Wagner draft would be a great draft day to me as of now.

Getting a Mikal Bridges type guy would be a massive win (not him specifically but that type of player).


But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.

Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I don’t think you are wrong about a trade, but I don’t see who that guys is right now, and I don’t see anyone even on the horizon.

I don’t want Towns. I’m more open to Beal. Is Collins a star?
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#365 » by Dadouv47 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:15 am

Oh boy I have a hard time to project any draft scenario because we may end up with either great or terrible picks. I kind of prefer to wait for my own sake...

I wouldn't trade for a star right now even if we get unlucky with our draft order. I don't think a star will be happy to come to OKC right now and we are far from competing anyway. The only move that makes sense would be to trade all our future picks for 2 stars (think we have enough picks for that). Pretty unlikely to find 2 available stars that are willing to play for us though and I still prefer to wait developing some players before pulling the trigger.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#366 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:21 am

Dn4sty wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
retrobro90 wrote:
But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.

Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I don’t think you are wrong about a trade, but I don’t see who that guys is right now, and I don’t see anyone even on the horizon.

I don’t want Towns. I’m more open to Beal. Is Collins a star?

Don't think, but you never know who or when. And think in general it's more valuable to have lots of good cheap contributors, even if not always swinging for stars, and seeing if they develop. Just looking at guys like Ayton and Bridges and I know for sure who I'd rather have even if he's not going to be a star.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#367 » by ThunderBolt » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:57 am

Look at what Portland has done around Lillard. Is CJ a star? Is he a great second option? Not really but they’ve had enough competent players to be competitive and fun to watch. I’m not saying that’s the team I hope we emulate but I don’t think their level of success is unattainable. If we drafted two really solid role players this year, we could be there in a couple seasons. And we still have 47 picks left. That’s not my ideal path forward but I’ve said before that their are so many ways for us to build a good team again.
bondom34 wrote:The GB gets mad if you are a "treadmill team"

The GB gets mad if you lose.

The GB gets mad if your team is too good.

The GB gets mad if you have a player they don't like.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#368 » by ThunderBolt » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:59 am

Dn4sty wrote:
I don’t think you are wrong about a trade, but I don’t see who that guys is right now, and I don’t see anyone even on the horizon.

I don’t want Towns. I’m more open to Beal. Is Collins a star?[


I don’t know that I love his fit alongside shai but I don’t see fox staying happy forever in Sacramento.
bondom34 wrote:The GB gets mad if you are a "treadmill team"

The GB gets mad if you lose.

The GB gets mad if your team is too good.

The GB gets mad if you have a player they don't like.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#369 » by Dn4sty » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:05 am

ThunderBolt wrote:
Spoiler:
Dn4sty wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I don’t think you are wrong about a trade, but I don’t see who that guys is right now, and I don’t see anyone even on the horizon.

I don’t want Towns. I’m more open to Beal. Is Collins a star?


I don’t know that I love his fit alongside shai but I don’t see fox staying happy forever in Sacramento.


The good thing about SGA is that he can fit with basically anyone, but if I had to choose a star to obtain to play alongside him, Fox would certainly be down the list a bit
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#370 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:37 am

ThunderBolt wrote:Look at what Portland has done around Lillard. Is CJ a star? Is he a great second option? Not really but they’ve had enough competent players to be competitive and fun to watch. I’m not saying that’s the team I hope we emulate but I don’t think their level of success is unattainable. If we drafted two really solid role players this year, we could be there in a couple seasons. And we still have 47 picks left. That’s not my ideal path forward but I’ve said before that their are so many ways for us to build a good team again.

Even just looking at probability of having good players, and thinking it through I keep coming to it too.

First, if you take these swings and don't hit, Shai won't stay happy forever.

Second, having the right kind of players who fit well around stars (movement shooting, 3 and D guys, etc) means you can add that guy later. Sure, most times people think you have to find the star first but why not the other way around?

And third you never know when that opportunity arises. Now not saying you overdraft these guys either, but after the top 5 I don't know I'm sold enough on anyone else.

And a note, I'll probably not get many who like it here or for the other team, but given they're the team I've been following more and more since they're local if Simmons ever did hypothetically become available I'd be all for sending picks to some team to send Philly whatever star they want for him.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#371 » by retrobro90 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:55 am

bondom34 wrote:
retrobro90 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:TBH really like Wagner myself. I haven't been sold on a ton of guys in this draft, and there are a few solid wings after the consensus top 5 who might not be stars but I think will be very good players. At some point think they've gotta have someone who's a bit of a known instead of continually swinging on high upside/low floor types. Granted some are unknown where they are in that spectrum, but Wagner, Moody, to some extent Bouknight, and even Kispert I like quite a bit right now if they end up later lotto. Right now the only guys I'm super high on in the top 5 are Cunningham and Suggs, so a Suggs/Wagner draft would be a great draft day to me as of now.

Getting a Mikal Bridges type guy would be a massive win (not him specifically but that type of player).


But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.

Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I'm not ready to say definitively that Poku/Baze are or aren't NBA players moving forward with them both at 19 and 20 years old respectively but I think their outcomes are more anecdotal evidence to these philosophies than they are empirical.

I think it's possible we're just going to disagree with what we deem a viable strategy moving forward to create a championship contender. I understand that hypothetically an upperclassmen prospect a la Mikal (who I loved in that draft) etc would/could help OKC's win total and I'm not opposed to a prospect with NBA ready skills. Any of the kids in this year's top 5 have some monster elite skills that are going to pop from day 1 in the NBA imo and I don't see someone in that group who has major volatile boom/bust aura short of any unexpected injuries.

Breaking this down though to specifically picks (6-10) and ~#17 or wherever the Miami pick is: I think it's just gotta be judged prospect to prospect. It just makes more sense to me for this team to look at Barnes/Moody/Bouknight than it does for them to look at Kispert/Mitchell imo. Same could be said at #17 for like Springer/Giddey/Ziare vs Duarte/Jared Butler. That's my opinion but I just don't think they should be done pursuing all-star level talent in draft.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#372 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:07 am

retrobro90 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
retrobro90 wrote:
But is that point NOW though? That's kind of my point. Like if you or anyone within the OKC FO thinks Wagner or whoever else has star potential then by all means please select him. The prospect they select doesn't have to have a low floor. They just have to have a high ceiling imo. I'm not in the business of discrediting prospects who've demonstrated NBA ready skills but I'm philosophically against drafting with the intent of garnering a role player at this juncture. In the future, yes, I see this as a viable strategy. But there's nothing about this current Thunder team that says the roster construction needs to be about filling in the gaps at the moment.

Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I'm not ready to say definitively that Poku/Baze are or aren't NBA players moving forward with them both at 19 and 20 years old respectively but I think their outcomes are more anecdotal evidence to these philosophies than they are empirical.

I think it's possible we're just going to disagree with what we deem a viable strategy moving forward to create a championship contender. I understand that hypothetically an upperclassmen prospect a la Mikal (who I loved in that draft) etc would/could help OKC's win total and I'm not opposed to a prospect with NBA ready skills. Any of the kids in this year's top 5 have some monster elite skills that are going to pop from day 1 in the NBA imo and I don't see someone in that group who has major volatile boom/bust aura short of any unexpected injuries.

Breaking this down though to specifically picks (6-10) and ~#17 or wherever the Miami pick is: I think it's just gotta be judged prospect to prospect. It just makes more sense to me for this team to look at Barnes/Moody/Bouknight than it does for them to look at Kispert/Mitchell imo. Same could be said at #17 for like Springer/Giddey/Ziare vs Duarte/Jared Butler. That's my opinion but I just don't think they should be done pursuing all-star level talent in draft.

Wasn't saying Poku's not. But Ferguson wasn't and I don't think Baze is right now looking like he will be, so they were the 2 swings.

But ultimately I just don't see it being as viable to continually swing for upside with a known star on the roster and expect him to stay happy if you're surrounding him with guys with few discernible NBA level skills and waiting. And after the top 5 I don't know if there's anyone I'd really say tops out at a star level talent, a guy like Barnes looks like he might top out at a non-shooting forward.

I do think it's prospect to prospect, and actually like Moody and to a lesser extent am OK on Bouknight.

I think Kispert is the type of player any team really could use, and if I'm looking around 10 or so, getting a guy who ends up Joe Harris like is a pretty massive win vs a good shot of having a player who might not make it. I'd agree on Mitchell, think he got some tourney hype.

I don't really know enough on Giddey but don't know I see a star there either, and Ziare is a guy who has been so poor shooting I don't think I'd be thrilled there.

I get the idea of keeping on swinging big, but at some point you score a run with 2 doubles instead of a home run, and having good cheap players is never bad (but having bad cheap players is never good). Shai may have sped things up a bit, and a team can't be built on flashes of potential, plus the odds of getting a star are so low outside the top few picks getting good role players is key if you're going to contend, and just getting stars elsewhere might be necessary. To add those numbers weren't even for sure picks or set in stone but a concept, every draft only has so many stars and if you keep swinging and praying someone else turns into one it just ends up being a bunch of flashes with no substance (I'd even say the Magic may have done this some with Gordon/Bamba/Dipo when he was younger, 3 guys who were supposed to be star level talents two of who were after the top 5).

I just don't love swinging on toolsy guys and praying anymore, feels like they've done it for so long and they've got so many holes just having quality NBA talent is huge. I think Wagner fits that (and is young, even if not a star) and Kispert could later lotto.

Outside the top 5 if they're 6-8 I'm all for Wagner at that point, he's young and can shoot and defend. Moody seems solid as well.

Edit: Was going to post again but will here, don't know we're that far off, I may just be higher on Wagner and have a bit of a different draft strategy with how I'd make a board.

Spoiler:
I'm not sure if you're talking top 5 or not, but wouldn't take Wagner there, just talking 6 or later. I do love a Suggs/SGA backcourt. And I'm a bit of the feeling right now that after 5 there's just a lot of guys I'd be happy with and a few I'm not so high on.

I think it is prospect to prospect as you said, but after the top 5, think my 6-8 guys are probably Wagner/Moody/Bouknight (with more research needed on Springer, I'm not sure I'm there on Keon Johnson) in a tier and I'd be happy with any of them as of now, with the most questions on Bouknight. I need to figure out how I feel about Jalen Johnson more, and no idea what to make of Giddey right now. Same I'm not big on Barnes and think there's a shot Zaire is there a fair bit later, not terribly high on him either. I just don't expect much in terms of return after 5ish, and getting a role player there or "star in his role" is pretty good if you keep doing it.

Also know folks love Mobley but I can't sell myself on drafting a big at 2. And if anyone noticed, yes I'm worried about guys who have questions about shooting :lol:.

Ultimately every team needs those guys, and when this team is ready to compete more they'd be more ready. I'm not sure I see star in anyone after the top few so feeling a little stronger about having a good quality role player would be a good draft IMO.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#373 » by ThunderBolt » Fri Apr 23, 2021 10:33 am

I do think the philosophy of swinging for the fences hasn’t been great so far neither have our picking positions. Regardless of the type of pick we make, just the fact that it’s a higher pick makes it more likely to succeed. I want stars but I’ll settle for really good role players this year. The key is we can’t draft a bust if we’re going to build around shai. In my opinion I would rather have Suggs over Wagner, but Wagner over Barnes.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#374 » by retrobro90 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 1:17 pm

bondom34 wrote:
retrobro90 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Thing is, a team at any point can use good players. TBH I think their best bet if they need a star might be via trade. Right now we've seen a trend where they've continually made upside swings over a few years (Ferguson, Bazley, Poku), and 2 of the 3 are pretty much non-NBA players. If they may well end up using the pick on someone with a huge question at the floor, I'd rather have 2 guys who are known high level contributors. I look at a guy like Scottie Barnes and think maybe he's a super role player, maybe he never shoots and ends up being totally not an NBA player at all.

The Suns got Bridges when they were bottom of the league and Booker was after his 3rd season, same as SGA. Now he turned into what he is and they're one of the best teams in the league. And honestly Bridges is a bigger contributor to that than Ayton today.

I think even if they're not going to try to win now, by the time they do these guys would actually be somewhat ready to contribute at the level necessary. If it's a guy like Cunningham/Suggs I see it, but assuming they're not top 5 don't see anyone where there's a really good player who has both upside and fewer significant drawbacks.

Edit: See below, posting something longer.


I'm not ready to say definitively that Poku/Baze are or aren't NBA players moving forward with them both at 19 and 20 years old respectively but I think their outcomes are more anecdotal evidence to these philosophies than they are empirical.

I think it's possible we're just going to disagree with what we deem a viable strategy moving forward to create a championship contender. I understand that hypothetically an upperclassmen prospect a la Mikal (who I loved in that draft) etc would/could help OKC's win total and I'm not opposed to a prospect with NBA ready skills. Any of the kids in this year's top 5 have some monster elite skills that are going to pop from day 1 in the NBA imo and I don't see someone in that group who has major volatile boom/bust aura short of any unexpected injuries.

Breaking this down though to specifically picks (6-10) and ~#17 or wherever the Miami pick is: I think it's just gotta be judged prospect to prospect. It just makes more sense to me for this team to look at Barnes/Moody/Bouknight than it does for them to look at Kispert/Mitchell imo. Same could be said at #17 for like Springer/Giddey/Ziare vs Duarte/Jared Butler. That's my opinion but I just don't think they should be done pursuing all-star level talent in draft.

Wasn't saying Poku's not. But Ferguson wasn't and I don't think Baze is right now looking like he will be, so they were the 2 swings.

But ultimately I just don't see it being as viable to continually swing for upside with a known star on the roster and expect him to stay happy if you're surrounding him with guys with few discernible NBA level skills and waiting. And after the top 5 I don't know if there's anyone I'd really say tops out at a star level talent, a guy like Barnes looks like he might top out at a non-shooting forward.

I do think it's prospect to prospect, and actually like Moody and to a lesser extent am OK on Bouknight.

I think Kispert is the type of player any team really could use, and if I'm looking around 10 or so, getting a guy who ends up Joe Harris like is a pretty massive win vs a good shot of having a player who might not make it. I'd agree on Mitchell, think he got some tourney hype.

I don't really know enough on Giddey but don't know I see a star there either, and Ziare is a guy who has been so poor shooting I don't think I'd be thrilled there.

I get the idea of keeping on swinging big, but at some point you score a run with 2 doubles instead of a home run, and having good cheap players is never bad (but having bad cheap players is never good). Shai may have sped things up a bit, and a team can't be built on flashes of potential, plus the odds of getting a star are so low outside the top few picks getting good role players is key if you're going to contend, and just getting stars elsewhere might be necessary. To add those numbers weren't even for sure picks or set in stone but a concept, every draft only has so many stars and if you keep swinging and praying someone else turns into one it just ends up being a bunch of flashes with no substance (I'd even say the Magic may have done this some with Gordon/Bamba/Dipo when he was younger, 3 guys who were supposed to be star level talents two of who were after the top 5).

I just don't love swinging on toolsy guys and praying anymore, feels like they've done it for so long and they've got so many holes just having quality NBA talent is huge. I think Wagner fits that (and is young, even if not a star) and Kispert could later lotto.

Outside the top 5 if they're 6-8 I'm all for Wagner at that point, he's young and can shoot and defend. Moody seems solid as well.

Edit: Was going to post again but will here, don't know we're that far off, I may just be higher on Wagner and have a bit of a different draft strategy with how I'd make a board.

Spoiler:
I'm not sure if you're talking top 5 or not, but wouldn't take Wagner there, just talking 6 or later. I do love a Suggs/SGA backcourt. And I'm a bit of the feeling right now that after 5 there's just a lot of guys I'd be happy with and a few I'm not so high on.

I think it is prospect to prospect as you said, but after the top 5, think my 6-8 guys are probably Wagner/Moody/Bouknight (with more research needed on Springer, I'm not sure I'm there on Keon Johnson) in a tier and I'd be happy with any of them as of now, with the most questions on Bouknight. I need to figure out how I feel about Jalen Johnson more, and no idea what to make of Giddey right now. Same I'm not big on Barnes and think there's a shot Zaire is there a fair bit later, not terribly high on him either. I just don't expect much in terms of return after 5ish, and getting a role player there or "star in his role" is pretty good if you keep doing it.

Also know folks love Mobley but I can't sell myself on drafting a big at 2. And if anyone noticed, yes I'm worried about guys who have questions about shooting :lol:.

Ultimately every team needs those guys, and when this team is ready to compete more they'd be more ready. I'm not sure I see star in anyone after the top few so feeling a little stronger about having a good quality role player would be a good draft IMO.


Oh I really don't care for Ziaire's game specifically but just using him as an example to juxtapose next to the 24 year old Duarte.

I'm not even a huge fan of Springer but the production is undeniable for his age and the flashes are enough to keep me enticed. On the other hand, I really really like Keon. Think he's more than just tools and every source close to him has the same glowing reviews of his character and work ethic that were echoed about Dort two years ago. Similarly, I think Moody is/has been wrongfully maligned as a role player by some evaluators given his role at Montverde. Think he's got a legitimate scoring arsenal that happens to include a pretty monstrous FT rate. Most Hogs fans will tell you he was their best player this year.

Anyway I could give my analysis on virtually any of these guys but I think that gets me down a path on which I'm not ready to tread. Already given most of my two cents on Barnes in the thread.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#375 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:44 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:I do think the philosophy of swinging for the fences hasn’t been great so far neither have our picking positions. Regardless of the type of pick we make, just the fact that it’s a higher pick makes it more likely to succeed. I want stars but I’ll settle for really good role players this year. The key is we can’t draft a bust if we’re going to build around shai. In my opinion I would rather have Suggs over Wagner, but Wagner over Barnes.

Agree with this entirely. This is a really important draft and I feel the same about those players and the outcomes. They really need to hit on something at minimum.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#376 » by Devilanche » Fri Apr 23, 2021 8:56 pm

We are all just waiting on season to be over and draft position to be confirmed .

With shai and dort around which a bunch of others who could potentially be winning rotational players ( Poku, Theo , Bazely etc) I’m ok if we draft high floor players for picks that are out of the top 5. If there’s really a boom or bust prospect in the late lotto, hopefully Presti can manoeuvre into a 3rd pick using future picks , our existing players , salary space and whatever needed.

We do have the GS pick or the Minny early second to use to move up so hopefully it’s possible.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#377 » by Dn4sty » Sat May 1, 2021 8:50 pm

After the top 5, I’m all in on the Euro guys:

Giddey
Sengun
Garuba
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#378 » by ThunderBolt » Sat May 1, 2021 8:54 pm

New game theory podcast is worth a listen. Quite a bit of Poku talk. Vecenie says he might take him as high as fourth in a redraft. Also says what I’ve felt for a while, this draft has four and a half stars at the top, with Kuminga being the guy in question. Barnes ties the guy he and Kyle Mann like outside the top five.
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The GB gets mad if you lose.

The GB gets mad if your team is too good.

The GB gets mad if you have a player they don't like.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#379 » by Dn4sty » Sun May 2, 2021 3:57 am

ThunderBolt wrote:New game theory podcast is worth a listen. Quite a bit of Poku talk. Vecenie says he might take him as high as fourth in a redraft. Also says what I’ve felt for a while, this draft has four and a half stars at the top, with Kuminga being the guy in question. Barnes ties the guy he and Kyle Mann like outside the top five.


He was also on DTD with Andrew and talked a lot about Barnes, Kai Jones, and Giddey.

The Poku talk was on their as well. Vecenie says he has the highest ceiling in the draft outside Lamelo.
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Re: 2021 NBA Draft Thread 

Post#380 » by Dn4sty » Sun May 2, 2021 4:24 am

Any thoughts on Zaire Williams?

I feel like he has the potential to be a really good NBA player, but his season was rough at Stanford.

I’m just looking at prospects in what could be the Heat pick range and he stands out as someone that might be worth taking a flyer on.

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