OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21

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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#61 » by spearsy23 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:03 am

I think cade choosing ok state improves our lottery 'odds'
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#62 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:35 am

spearsy23 wrote:I think cade choosing ok state improves our lottery 'odds'

Do you mean you think Presti will tank for a “local” kid?
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#63 » by bbms » Wed Dec 16, 2020 2:06 am

From **** KD
To **** Cade
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#64 » by spearsy23 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:06 am

ThunderBolt wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:I think cade choosing ok state improves our lottery 'odds'

Do you mean you think Presti will tank for a “local” kid?

Nope. I mean Cleveland gets the first pick when the local boy is on the board. Chicago gets the 1 with the local boy. Cleveland gets the first pick when lebron leaves. Minny gets the first when love forces his way out. NOLA gets the first pick when Davis forces his way out. It's funny how these things just always seem to fall a certain way.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#65 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:13 am

spearsy23 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:I think cade choosing ok state improves our lottery 'odds'

Do you mean you think Presti will tank for a “local” kid?

Nope. I mean Cleveland gets the first pick when the local boy is on the board. Chicago gets the 1 with the local boy. Cleveland gets the first pick when lebron leaves. Minny gets the first when love forces his way out. NOLA gets the first pick when Davis forces his way out. It's funny how these things just always seem to fall a certain way.

Hope you’re right.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#66 » by bbms » Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:37 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
We won't be able to move up into the draft without offering SGA or crazy picks (like our own).

The Heat/Clippers etc. picks are nice to trade for role players but not enough to make a significant move into the draft.

For this year, it kind of depends on where the Houston pick lands. If it’s around 12-16 and we won’t to move up from 8-12, I think it would be possible with some additional future assets. Based on the small sample size we’ve seen, I don’t think it’s crazy that a guy like Zaire Williams or Brandon Boston falls outside the top 8.


Sure. my answer was to bbms who thinks we should compete and move into the draft with our future assets. I was mainly talking about how dificult it is to move up to get one of the first picks of the draft.


You play the board, not the picks.

Well, it's certainly tough to move up from 18th to 1st, when we talk like this, like the picking position has an inherent, abstract value, regardless of the prospects available. There's a concept called "sweet spot". For example, sometimes the talent dropoff from the 1st through the 10th prospect on a team's big board is considered smaller than the drop off from the 10th through the 15th prospect. In those cases, it's worth to trade into the top 10, but not worth to give up too much to get further into the top picks. Also not worth to move up (at all) if you're not going to pick one of the 10 best prospects. You are already in the Draft's sweet spot.

Understand the concept?

Do you remember 2008 NBA Draft? When Presti rated Westbrook as a top 4 pick when it's not clear that he would be selected in the Top 10? People called it a reach. If you rate a prospect in the top 5, and he's available at the 11th pick, wouldn't be an obvious choice to move your assets and snatch the guy who fell?

You don't Draft for the consensus Big Board. You draft prospects you like, and most of the time, different GMs will have different grades for the same prospect.

So that's what I meant when I said: move up when there's a prospect you really like. We've seen Presti do this year. Was Pokusevski a top 5 pick? No. But did the Thunder really like him? Yes. What did Presti do?

OTOH, the objective truth, is that the only teams with a history of tanking that reached the Finals in the past decade were the Toronto Raptors, over 5 years removed from that tanking bulls***. I don't count Cleveland post-Lebron's decision as tanking because they really lacked NBA-level players, they were just a bad team, winning more was out of their reach.

No teenager is worth giving up a competitive culture. Yes, there's a downside to that. But would you rather be a Memphis Grizzlies fan, a Denver Nuggets fan, or a Minnesota Timberwolves fan in the 10s?
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#67 » by Dadouv47 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:02 pm

bbms wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:For this year, it kind of depends on where the Houston pick lands. If it’s around 12-16 and we won’t to move up from 8-12, I think it would be possible with some additional future assets. Based on the small sample size we’ve seen, I don’t think it’s crazy that a guy like Zaire Williams or Brandon Boston falls outside the top 8.


Sure. my answer was to bbms who thinks we should compete and move into the draft with our future assets. I was mainly talking about how dificult it is to move up to get one of the first picks of the draft.


You play the board, not the picks.

Well, it's certainly tough to move up from 18th to 1st, when we talk like this, like the picking position has an inherent, abstract value, regardless of the prospects available. There's a concept called "sweet spot". For example, sometimes the talent dropoff from the 1st through the 10th prospect on a team's big board is considered smaller than the drop off from the 10th through the 15th prospect. In those cases, it's worth to trade into the top 10, but not worth to give up too much to get further into the top picks. Also not worth to move up (at all) if you're not going to pick one of the 10 best prospects. You are already in the Draft's sweet spot.

Understand the concept?

Do you remember 2008 NBA Draft? When Presti rated Westbrook as a top 4 pick when it's not clear that he would be selected in the Top 10? People called it a reach. If you rate a prospect in the top 5, and he's available at the 11th pick, wouldn't be an obvious choice to move your assets and snatch the guy who fell?

You don't Draft for the consensus Big Board. You draft prospects you like, and most of the time, different GMs will have different grades for the same prospect.

So that's what I meant when I said: move up when there's a prospect you really like. We've seen Presti do this year. Was Pokusevski a top 5 pick? No. But did the Thunder really like him? Yes. What did Presti do?

OTOH, the objective truth, is that the only teams with a history of tanking that reached the Finals in the past decade were the Toronto Raptors, over 5 years removed from that tanking bulls***. I don't count Cleveland post-Lebron's decision as tanking because they really lacked NBA-level players, they were just a bad team, winning more was out of their reach.

[b]No teenager is worth giving up a competitive culture. [/b]Yes, there's a downside to that. But would you rather be a Memphis Grizzlies fan, a Denver Nuggets fan, or a Minnesota Timberwolves fan in the 10s?


I totally disagree with that. We badly need to tank even if it's only for 2-3 years. I respect your opinion though

Poku was a bad example. He wasn't even a lottery pick. You can't compare him to the 5 best guys in next year draft so the cost to move up to take one of the best guys is totally different.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#68 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:33 pm

As I stated, I'm against tanking in the true sense of what the word means. I support building through the draft. I don't want to intentionally lose games once the roster is established. Ideally this year has a lot of competitive losses and we see progress from our young guys. Then we hit on our draft picks the next two years and accelerate this process. This method of "tanking" works. It worked for us the last decade and countless others. It's the only way to build a true contender in a market that won't attract and keep free agents. I don't have any desire to follow the path of the Pacers.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#69 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:41 pm

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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#70 » by Dadouv47 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 12:43 pm

We have a lot of young players but not a lot of talent and we still need to give some playing time/develop those young guys we signed so it won't be an issue to play to ''win'' while still having bad results/losing enough games. Our starting line up may be decent but the rest is garbage right now...so we can easily keep a competitive culture and end up last in the West.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#71 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 16, 2020 1:44 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:I think cade choosing ok state improves our lottery 'odds'

Do you mean you think Presti will tank for a “local” kid?

Nope. I mean Cleveland gets the first pick when the local boy is on the board. Chicago gets the 1 with the local boy. Cleveland gets the first pick when lebron leaves. Minny gets the first when love forces his way out. NOLA gets the first pick when Davis forces his way out. It's funny how these things just always seem to fall a certain way.


But that means we should have been able to take Blake Griffin the year we ended up with Harden.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#72 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 16, 2020 3:38 pm

I had to post this hilariously stupid take somewhere.

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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#73 » by ThunderBolt » Wed Dec 16, 2020 4:19 pm

Old Man Game wrote:I had to post this hilariously stupid take somewhere.

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?s=20

Some people are going to have a hard time if Bazley and Dort don't become all stars.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#74 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 16, 2020 5:02 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:I had to post this hilariously stupid take somewhere.

Read on Twitter
?s=20

Some people are going to have a hard time if Bazley and Dort don't become all stars.
My favorite is throwing Theo in there after one preseason game. The idiot would literally have you believe there's no point in trying to get a top five pick because a guy picked in the second round looked good in one f****** preseason game.

You should try and follow the thread. The guy jumps in there and tries to argue with everyone. He even brings up Chauncey Billups as some sort of exemplar of why you don't need elite players. Yes, that's Chauncey Billups the five-time All-Star and third overall pick in 1997.

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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#75 » by bbms » Wed Dec 16, 2020 6:36 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:As I stated, I'm against tanking in the true sense of what the word means. I support building through the draft. I don't want to intentionally lose games once the roster is established. Ideally this year has a lot of competitive losses and we see progress from our young guys. Then we hit on our draft picks the next two years and accelerate this process. This method of "tanking" works. It worked for us the last decade and countless others. It's the only way to build a true contender in a market that won't attract and keep free agents. I don't have any desire to follow the path of the Pacers.



The last time tanking worked was when SAS tanked for Duncan. And there's a reason for that. Because they already had an established roster with an Injured superstar, and tanked specifically to get their guy. A certain prospect that they wanted bad.

Badly ran franchises have tried to copy that only to find failure on the road.

I don't consider what the Seattle SuperSonics did in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 tanking. The team was really bad, they found good trade partners and moved their only good assets (Sheard and Allen) for draft capital.

While the 2007/08 SuperSonics team was really bad, they weren't trying to lose. The proof is that they fired P.J. Carlesimo in the midst of the 2008/09 following season as soon as they felt they had a shot at being a winning basketball team. Underperformance was not tolerated in 2008/09, and I don't think it will get tolerated now.

I still haven't seen Presti deviate from that same path he's working for years. He's always going after HIS GUY, and making unconventional moves to get his guy. Who would've predicted the Westbrook pick, the Paul George/Victor Oladipo trades or passing up deadline trades for CP3?

Also, we're banking the future of this franchise on SGA. Coincidentally, #11 pick in 2018 NBA Draft. :lol: :lol:
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#76 » by Old Man Game » Wed Dec 16, 2020 7:01 pm

bbms wrote:I don't consider what the Seattle SuperSonics did in 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 tanking. The team was really bad, they found good trade partners and moved their only good assets (Sheard and Allen) for draft capital.

While the 2007/08 SuperSonics team was really bad, they weren't trying to lose. The proof is that they fired P.J. Carlesimo in the midst of the 2008/09 following season as soon as they felt they had a shot at being a winning basketball team. Underperformance was not tolerated in 2008/09, and I don't think it will get tolerated now.

I still haven't seen Presti deviate from that same path he's working for years. He's always going after HIS GUY, and making unconventional moves to get his guy. Who would've predicted the Westbrook pick, the Paul George/Victor Oladipo trades or passing up deadline trades for CP3?

Also, we're banking the future of this franchise on SGA. Coincidentally, #11 pick in 2018 NBA Draft. :lol: :lol:


I do wonder though if PJ mightn't have been a situation beyond losing for draft position. And if you recall that was the team's first season in OKC, and to say the team was unwatchable under Carlisimo is putting it mildly. It was eyes bleeding type stuff. My belief is they wanted to at least look scrappy and competitive and they knew they had enough talent to do that and still be in decent lottery position, especially by the time they fired the coach at 3 and 29. That they got the 3rd overall pick may speak for itself. They weren't dealing picks to acquire vets to shore up the rotation or anything like that as they would have presumably done if they'd expressly wanted to win.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#77 » by retrobro90 » Wed Dec 16, 2020 11:10 pm

Ultimately there's gonna be a lot of anecdotal evidence people have in support of and against tanking. Also there's a supremely wide variance in what qualifies as tanking. If OKC is firmly out of the playoff picture a week before the trade deadline this year it seems like a pretty shrewd and intelligent move for them to trade George Hill for example even if some would call that tanking. If they have a ton of winning momentum with Chris Paul at the helm it makes more sense for them to hold tight and ride the season out. They're allowed to keep a nuanced approach.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#78 » by spearsy23 » Thu Dec 17, 2020 12:07 pm

Old Man Game wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:
ThunderBolt wrote:Do you mean you think Presti will tank for a “local” kid?

Nope. I mean Cleveland gets the first pick when the local boy is on the board. Chicago gets the 1 with the local boy. Cleveland gets the first pick when lebron leaves. Minny gets the first when love forces his way out. NOLA gets the first pick when Davis forces his way out. It's funny how these things just always seem to fall a certain way.


But that means we should have been able to take Blake Griffin the year we ended up with Harden.

We already had Durant. Competitive balance factors in.

I'm being kinda facetious btw. It is odd how often these things work out, I don't know that it's nefarious though.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#79 » by Old Man Game » Thu Dec 17, 2020 3:12 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:
spearsy23 wrote:Nope. I mean Cleveland gets the first pick when the local boy is on the board. Chicago gets the 1 with the local boy. Cleveland gets the first pick when lebron leaves. Minny gets the first when love forces his way out. NOLA gets the first pick when Davis forces his way out. It's funny how these things just always seem to fall a certain way.


But that means we should have been able to take Blake Griffin the year we ended up with Harden.

We already had Durant. Competitive balance factors in.

I'm being kinda facetious btw. It is odd how often these things work out, I don't know that it's nefarious though.
Oh I assumed you were joking. It is kind of a fun thought experiments to consider what that team would have looked like had they ended up with the number one overall pick and taken Blake that year though. He'd probably still be here.

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Re: OKC Thunder Regular Season Thread 2020-21 

Post#80 » by ThunderBolt » Fri Dec 18, 2020 11:29 pm

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