20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News

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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#741 » by jake_swivel » Fri Apr 16, 2021 1:49 pm

Devilanche wrote:Fringe playoff team will then tank instead near the end . Why lose to the first seed in 4 games when you got a 7% (?) chance of the number one pick


I think he means every team in the league is in the lottery. And at that point, the competitive balance of the league will go to hell. Think big/attractive markets have an unfair advantage now? Might as well just put all the teams in LA, NY, and Miami at that point.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#742 » by Devilanche » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:02 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
Devilanche wrote:Fringe playoff team will then tank instead near the end . Why lose to the first seed in 4 games when you got a 7% (?) chance of the number one pick


I think he means every team in the league is in the lottery. And at that point, the competitive balance of the league will go to hell. Think big/attractive markets have an unfair advantage now? Might as well just put all the teams in LA, NY, and Miami at that point.

Oh all 30 teams! That will work but the bad team will forever be bad.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#743 » by slick_watts » Fri Apr 16, 2021 2:52 pm

i meant all lottery teams (non-playoff) have the same odds. fringe playoff teams tanking to get into the lottery seems unlikely to me. just look at what we were doing in 2015 when KD got hurt. we were fighting for a playoff spot to the end even though it would have been fruitless. my theory is that teams on the bubble would fight more to make the playoffs than to get into the lottery. and obviously it doesn't matter how bad you are, if you don't make the playoffs you have the same odds to get the #1 pick as the worst team in the league. removing the incentive for bottoming out is what this approach would target.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#744 » by jake_swivel » Fri Apr 16, 2021 3:03 pm

slick_watts wrote:i meant all lottery teams (non-playoff) have the same odds. fringe playoff teams tanking to get into the lottery seems unlikely to me. just look at what we were doing in 2015 when KD got hurt. we were fighting for a playoff spot to the end even though it would have been fruitless. my theory is that teams on the bubble would fight more to make the playoffs than to get into the lottery. and obviously it doesn't matter how bad you are, if you don't make the playoffs you have the same odds to get the #1 pick as the worst team in the league. removing the incentive for bottoming out is what this approach would target.


I think you’d then need to further financially incentivize making the playoffs in that scenario. I’m with devilanche in that teams would prefer being in the lottery than being the 8th seed.

Your 2015 example doesn’t really jive because the odds didn’t justify tanking. The odds were much worse than they are now and the odds now would be much worse than if the lottery was equal.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#745 » by thedoppelganger » Fri Apr 16, 2021 9:50 pm

Read on Twitter

If he’s not 100% at this point, can’t see us pushing to have him back this season
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#746 » by Old Man Game » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:03 pm

I thought last night's game was a pretty good barometer of where some of these reserve level players we're currently playing are. I thought for sure we would probably win that game given how bad Detroit's roster was they were trotting out there.

Sure enough we lost and lost comfortably. Most of the guys that we are currently playing have no business being in the nba. Of the guys currently getting minutes it might literally be just Dort and Theo that actually deserve minutes and I only say Theo because he's just a rookie with some upside.

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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#747 » by slick_watts » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:35 pm

Image

here are the worst offenses in nba history. the thunder could challenge for bottom 10 positioning here with sga out even longer. they are at -11.7pp100 relative to league average since sga went down, which you will notice would be worst on this list over the course of an entire season.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#748 » by Dadouv47 » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:58 pm

Old Man Game wrote:I thought last night's game was a pretty good barometer of where some of these reserve level players we're currently playing are. I thought for sure we would probably win that game given how bad Detroit's roster was they were trotting out there.

Sure enough we lost and lost comfortably. Most of the guys that we are currently playing have no business being in the nba. Of the guys currently getting minutes it might literally be just Dort and Theo that actually deserve minutes and I only say Theo because he's just a rookie with some upside.

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Pretty much. If one of Poku/Maledon/Bazley can be a good NBA player, that's already pretty good. Don't expect anything from Moses Brown/Roby etc.

This is why this draft is so important to us (no matter which picks). We badly need to draft well.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#749 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Apr 17, 2021 8:12 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:I thought last night's game was a pretty good barometer of where some of these reserve level players we're currently playing are. I thought for sure we would probably win that game given how bad Detroit's roster was they were trotting out there.

Sure enough we lost and lost comfortably. Most of the guys that we are currently playing have no business being in the nba. Of the guys currently getting minutes it might literally be just Dort and Theo that actually deserve minutes and I only say Theo because he's just a rookie with some upside.

Sent from my moto g power using RealGM mobile app


Pretty much. If one of Poku/Maledon/Bazley can be a good NBA player, that's already pretty good. Don't expect anything from Moses Brown/Roby etc.

This is why this draft is so important to us (no matter which picks). We badly need to draft well.

A lot of people see some of these G league type guys make some plays and think they have potential. The reality is that lots of young guys could be developed in to an end of the bench rotation piece and lots of older guys get cut from the league while they could still contribute. It takes more than that to stick around and not every player gets an equal shot. When we start trying to win games again some of these try-hard guys will look worse.
bondom34 wrote:The GB gets mad if you are a "treadmill team"

The GB gets mad if you lose.

The GB gets mad if your team is too good.

The GB gets mad if you have a player they don't like.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#750 » by Old Man Game » Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:55 pm

ThunderBolt wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:I thought last night's game was a pretty good barometer of where some of these reserve level players we're currently playing are. I thought for sure we would probably win that game given how bad Detroit's roster was they were trotting out there.

Sure enough we lost and lost comfortably. Most of the guys that we are currently playing have no business being in the nba. Of the guys currently getting minutes it might literally be just Dort and Theo that actually deserve minutes and I only say Theo because he's just a rookie with some upside.

Sent from my moto g power using RealGM mobile app


Pretty much. If one of Poku/Maledon/Bazley can be a good NBA player, that's already pretty good. Don't expect anything from Moses Brown/Roby etc.

This is why this draft is so important to us (no matter which picks). We badly need to draft well.

A lot of people see some of these G league type guys make some plays and think they have potential. The reality is that lots of young guys could be developed in to an end of the bench rotation piece and lots of older guys get cut from the league while they could still contribute. It takes more than that to stick around and not every player gets an equal shot. When we start trying to win games again some of these try-hard guys will look worse.
It's such a weird thing isn't it? You'll see a guy and he's made some shots and he looks like he's trying on defense and you think he doesn't look that bad and then you look at the box score and he's like consistently a negative 18 or something.

I'd love to have a chance to sit down with some professional scouts and spend just like a couple hours talking about how they watch the game and how they watch these players and decide who's worth something and who they can just tell right away will never amount to anything.

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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#751 » by ThunderBolt » Mon Apr 19, 2021 7:32 pm

Read on Twitter
bondom34 wrote:The GB gets mad if you are a "treadmill team"

The GB gets mad if you lose.

The GB gets mad if your team is too good.

The GB gets mad if you have a player they don't like.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#752 » by cjmcallist » Tue Apr 20, 2021 4:59 pm

After last night, our odds of landing a top 5 pick are at 89%. Holy smokes that went up fast.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#753 » by cjmcallist » Wed Apr 21, 2021 12:56 pm

cjmcallist wrote:After last night, our odds of landing a top 5 pick are at 89%. Holy smokes that went up fast.

Now at 90%. 8-)
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#754 » by jake_swivel » Wed Apr 21, 2021 3:01 pm

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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#755 » by Devilanche » Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:34 pm

jake_swivel wrote:https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-news/1197380/gabriel-deck-on-his-way-to-officially-join-the-oklahoma-city-thunder/

Deck arriving today. Hopefully he quarantines for a month.

I hope he does play the last few games of the season though. Just to get a feel of how he belong.

And he will seriously be out of game fitness then.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#756 » by cjmcallist » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:16 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:After last night, our odds of landing a top 5 pick are at 89%. Holy smokes that went up fast.

Now at 90%. 8-)

Now at 93%.

Hopefully this isn't annoying. Thought it would be fun to look back in time and have a little record of how the odds increased. This is based on the Ringer's projections. I think I saw something on twitter that differed.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#757 » by Dadouv47 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:30 pm

How 93%? I'm bad at math I guess

Anyway if the Houston pick is 1-4, we get around 34%+ to get a top 5 pick so it's not ideal...

This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#758 » by thedoppelganger » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:41 pm

Read on Twitter

Good article about CP3's last couple years, speaks highly of OKC as always. Apparently Philly had made a big push to trade for him too, but Chris chose Phoenix instead
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#759 » by jake_swivel » Fri Apr 23, 2021 2:43 pm

Dadouv47 wrote: This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.


Just remember that before the season started, the rockets had harden, Westbrook/wall, and wood. That team probably finishes at least 5th in the West, if not higher. We were staring at a mid round pick from Miami, most likely.

Turn that frown upside down. Two years from now the rockets will still suck. They might suck for five years. It’s a great time to be an OKC fan, regardless.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#760 » by Dadouv47 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:22 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote: This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.


Just remember that before the season started, the rockets had harden, Westbrook/wall, and wood. That team probably finishes at least 5th in the West, if not higher. We were staring at a mid round pick from Miami, most likely.

Turn that frown, upside down. Two years from now the rockets will still suck. They might suck for five years. It’s a great time to be an OKC fan, regardless.


Yeah it's al about perspective and if you asked me before the season I would obviously be excited about having 48% to get the 5th pick. Other than that I think their odds of being good in 2024-2026 are higher now. Harden will be 35 years old...Houston have a lot of picks and will probably be able to make a quick rebuild.

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