20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News

Moderators: Andre Roberstan, ThunderBolt

User avatar
jake_swivel
Senior
Posts: 676
And1: 370
Joined: Jul 07, 2019

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#761 » by jake_swivel » Fri Apr 23, 2021 3:34 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:Yeah it's al about perspective and if you asked me before the season I would obviously be excited about having 48% to get the 5th pick. Other than that I think their odds of being good in 2024-2026 are higher now. Harden will be 35 years old...Houston have a lot of picks and will probably be able to make a quick rebuild.


I think Tillman Fertita is a terrible owner. And you also have his son as one of their top executives. I love seeing nepotism in a competitor. Their moves this season haven’t given me much confidence in their competence in rebuilding. Could they? Sure. I think they’re more likely to have a toxic atmosphere with poor management.
Dadouv47
Head Coach
Posts: 7,284
And1: 3,205
Joined: Mar 22, 2015
   

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#762 » by Dadouv47 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:03 pm

jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:Yeah it's al about perspective and if you asked me before the season I would obviously be excited about having 48% to get the 5th pick. Other than that I think their odds of being good in 2024-2026 are higher now. Harden will be 35 years old...Houston have a lot of picks and will probably be able to make a quick rebuild.


I think Tillman Fertita is a terrible owner. And you also have his son as one of their top executives. I love seeing nepotism in a competitor. Their moves this season haven’t given me much confidence in their competence in rebuilding. Could they? Sure. I think they’re more likely to have a toxic atmosphere with poor management.


Fertita is a terrible owner for sure but I like Rafael stone's job so far. Some kind of bad moves (Oladipo) but overall he's doing well.

Things are quiet terrible in Houston because Wood is their only valuable piece and they don't have good young players yet but if they get their own FRP + the other two late FRPs for this year draft, they could start a nice rebuild.

I was crazy happy about the WB/CP3 trade because the picks and pick swap were mostly in some post Harden era but now they have a lot more time & assets before we get those picks, so overall it's not as great as it was. But sure you need good management and a lot of luck for a rebuild to work so we don't know what will happen by then.
thedoppelganger
Junior
Posts: 471
And1: 349
Joined: Aug 02, 2013
 

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#763 » by thedoppelganger » Fri Apr 23, 2021 4:39 pm

Off the charts bad as expected, have to hope Detroit somehow scrapes a few more wins together in the home stretch
Read on Twitter
cjmcallist
Senior
Posts: 690
And1: 280
Joined: Jul 27, 2018
 

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#764 » by cjmcallist » Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:19 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:How 93%? I'm bad at math I guess

Anyway if the Houston pick is 1-4, we get around 34%+ to get a top 5 pick so it's not ideal...

This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.

Here’s the ringer article. I also am bad at math, so I just use other people’s. Lol

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#765 » by bondom34 » Fri Apr 23, 2021 11:30 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:How 93%? I'm bad at math I guess

Anyway if the Houston pick is 1-4, we get around 34%+ to get a top 5 pick so it's not ideal...

This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.

Here’s the ringer article. I also am bad at math, so I just use other people’s. Lol

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

It's the odds of having any top 5 pick, so Houston's odds of having the 5th pick (ie it goes to OKC) are 47.9%.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Add up the odds of OKC getting any pick 1-5 here and it's about 44.3%.

44.3 + 47.9 = 92.2%

Odds to get both is about 20%.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Dadouv47
Head Coach
Posts: 7,284
And1: 3,205
Joined: Mar 22, 2015
   

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#766 » by Dadouv47 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:13 am

bondom34 wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:How 93%? I'm bad at math I guess

Anyway if the Houston pick is 1-4, we get around 34%+ to get a top 5 pick so it's not ideal...

This ****ing houston pick swap is so big that it can not convey and lower our odds to get a top 4 pick.

Here’s the ringer article. I also am bad at math, so I just use other people’s. Lol

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

It's the odds of having any top 5 pick, so Houston's odds of having the 5th pick (ie it goes to OKC) are 47.9%.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Add up the odds of OKC getting any pick 1-5 here and it's about 44.3%.

44.3 + 47.9 = 92.2%

Odds to get both is about 20%.


if the Houston pick is 1-4 you get at least 10% less chances of having a 1-4 pick.

I think you have to take into account the fact that a top 4 pick from Houston will give you a bit more than 30% chances to get a top 4 pick instead of 44.3%

But yeah, I'm really bad at math so...
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#767 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:19 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:Here’s the ringer article. I also am bad at math, so I just use other people’s. Lol

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

It's the odds of having any top 5 pick, so Houston's odds of having the 5th pick (ie it goes to OKC) are 47.9%.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Add up the odds of OKC getting any pick 1-5 here and it's about 44.3%.

44.3 + 47.9 = 92.2%

Odds to get both is about 20%.


if the Houston pick is 1-4 you get at least 10% less chances of having a 1-4 pick.

I think you have to take into account the fact that a top 4 pick from Houston will give you a bit more than 30% chances to get a top 4 pick instead of 44.3%

But yeah, I'm really bad at math so...

The odds of Houston having a pick in the top 4 are 52.1%. That's total, between 1, 2, 3, and 4. So the chances that pick lands exactly at 5 are 47.9%.

If it's 1, 2, 3 or 4 Houston keeps it.

If it's 5 it goes to OKC. So there's a 47.9% shot OKC gets it. There's a 52.1% chance Houston does.

That 47.9 plus OKC's own odds at landing anywhere from 1-5 would be that 92.2. I think its the combined odds.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Dadouv47
Head Coach
Posts: 7,284
And1: 3,205
Joined: Mar 22, 2015
   

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#768 » by Dadouv47 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:30 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote: It's the odds of having any top 5 pick, so Houston's odds of having the 5th pick (ie it goes to OKC) are 47.9%.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

Add up the odds of OKC getting any pick 1-5 here and it's about 44.3%.

44.3 + 47.9 = 92.2%

Odds to get both is about 20%.


if the Houston pick is 1-4 you get at least 10% less chances of having a 1-4 pick.

I think you have to take into account the fact that a top 4 pick from Houston will give you a bit more than 30% chances to get a top 4 pick instead of 44.3%

But yeah, I'm really bad at math so...

The odds of Houston having a pick in the top 4 are 52.1%. That's total, between 1, 2, 3, and 4. So the chances that pick lands exactly at 5 are 47.9%.

If it's 1, 2, 3 or 4 Houston keeps it.

If it's 5 it goes to OKC. So there's a 47.9% shot OKC gets it. There's a 52.1% chance Houston does.

That 47.9 plus OKC's own odds at landing anywhere from 1-5 would be that 92.2. I think its the combined odds.


Yeah I guess. But if the Houston pick doesn't convey, we will get around 32+% because one of the top 4 spot would go to Houston.

So to me we basically have 47.9 + +/-32 but I should be wrong :lol:

Hope we keep that 5th bottom record at least. Cavs keeps losing, Curry just got injured and Fox gonna miss 2 weeks because of Covid
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#769 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:54 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
if the Houston pick is 1-4 you get at least 10% less chances of having a 1-4 pick.

I think you have to take into account the fact that a top 4 pick from Houston will give you a bit more than 30% chances to get a top 4 pick instead of 44.3%

But yeah, I'm really bad at math so...

The odds of Houston having a pick in the top 4 are 52.1%. That's total, between 1, 2, 3, and 4. So the chances that pick lands exactly at 5 are 47.9%.

If it's 1, 2, 3 or 4 Houston keeps it.

If it's 5 it goes to OKC. So there's a 47.9% shot OKC gets it. There's a 52.1% chance Houston does.

That 47.9 plus OKC's own odds at landing anywhere from 1-5 would be that 92.2. I think its the combined odds.


Yeah I guess. But if the Houston pick doesn't convey, we will get around 32+% because one of the top 4 spot would go to Houston.

So to me we basically have 47.9 + +/-32 but I should be wrong :lol:

Hope we keep that 5th bottom record at least. Cavs keeps losing, Curry just got injured and Fox gonna miss 2 weeks because of Covid


Kings worry me now, thought the Cavs might pull one off tonight. But think I figured a way to better explain it. Let me know if it still doesn't add up, but:

Image

All the Ringer thing is saying is the odds OKC has any top 5 pick, so any single 1 of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

From the table, the odds they get pick 1 are 10.5%, 2 10.5%, 3 10.6%, 4 10.5%, 5 2.2%. The odds their own draft pick lands in any of these 5 spots is 44.3%.

The odds they get Houston's pick at 5 are 47.9%.

So the odds of them getting any single one of those possibilities is adding them all together.

In this scenario it's the odds of any of those possibilities happening.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
User avatar
Old Man Game
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,694
And1: 3,846
Joined: Jul 15, 2012

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#770 » by Old Man Game » Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:50 am

bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:The odds of Houston having a pick in the top 4 are 52.1%. That's total, between 1, 2, 3, and 4. So the chances that pick lands exactly at 5 are 47.9%.

If it's 1, 2, 3 or 4 Houston keeps it.

If it's 5 it goes to OKC. So there's a 47.9% shot OKC gets it. There's a 52.1% chance Houston does.

That 47.9 plus OKC's own odds at landing anywhere from 1-5 would be that 92.2. I think its the combined odds.


Yeah I guess. But if the Houston pick doesn't convey, we will get around 32+% because one of the top 4 spot would go to Houston.

So to me we basically have 47.9 + +/-32 but I should be wrong :lol:

Hope we keep that 5th bottom record at least. Cavs keeps losing, Curry just got injured and Fox gonna miss 2 weeks because of Covid


Kings worry me now, thought the Cavs might pull one off tonight. But think I figured a way to better explain it. Let me know if it still doesn't add up, but:

Image

All the Ringer thing is saying is the odds OKC has any top 5 pick, so any single 1 of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

From the table, the odds they get pick 1 are 10.5%, 2 10.5%, 3 10.6%, 4 10.5%, 5 2.2%. The odds their own draft pick lands in any of these 5 spots is 44.3%.

The odds they get Houston's pick at 5 are 47.9%.

So the odds of them getting any single one of those possibilities is adding them all together.

In this scenario it's the odds of any of those possibilities happening.


This doesn't make sense to me. If this were true in a hypothetical scenario where Presti had managed to trade for Houston's pick but without the top 4 protection you're saying the odds of us getting a top 5 pick would be above 100%, because you'd just add them all together (clearly impossible)? Or do I misunderstand and you simply mean your aggregate our odds of getting pick 5 to their odds of getting pick 5?
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#771 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:06 am

Old Man Game wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
Yeah I guess. But if the Houston pick doesn't convey, we will get around 32+% because one of the top 4 spot would go to Houston.

So to me we basically have 47.9 + +/-32 but I should be wrong :lol:

Hope we keep that 5th bottom record at least. Cavs keeps losing, Curry just got injured and Fox gonna miss 2 weeks because of Covid


Kings worry me now, thought the Cavs might pull one off tonight. But think I figured a way to better explain it. Let me know if it still doesn't add up, but:

Image

All the Ringer thing is saying is the odds OKC has any top 5 pick, so any single 1 of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

From the table, the odds they get pick 1 are 10.5%, 2 10.5%, 3 10.6%, 4 10.5%, 5 2.2%. The odds their own draft pick lands in any of these 5 spots is 44.3%.

The odds they get Houston's pick at 5 are 47.9%.

So the odds of them getting any single one of those possibilities is adding them all together.

In this scenario it's the odds of any of those possibilities happening.


This doesn't make sense to me. If this were true in a hypothetical scenario where Presti had managed to trade for Houston's pick but without the top 4 protection you're saying the odds of us getting a top 5 pick would be above 100%, because you'd just add them all together (clearly impossible)? Or do I misunderstand and you simply mean your aggregate our odds of getting pick 5 to their odds of getting pick 5?

They wouldn't then be over 100%, but they'd be 100% since Houston is guaranteed.

But I think what I'm saying is your last sentence, its the total odds of them getting any single one of the top 5 in aggregate if I'm understanding what they're doing (heck maybe I'm not). But that's the way I take it. But they say they're projecting the final standings too so it's even weirder.

Granted this doesn't work w/ the Magic so I have no clue unless they're predicting the odds of teams moving in the standings as well.

Edit: And if that isn't it IDK haha. But that is what they're doing for say Houston or Minnesota it seems, just adding up the odds. It has MIN at 40%, which is the odds of them being 1, 2, or 3. It's also off from them by 1% which seems super close but also strange so IDK for sure but seems it works for most teams (might be due to changes they project in standings?). But I think that sorta makes sense if you follow? I also don't want to be super definitive and be wrong, but its close to what they're getting and putting on their site.

Pretty sure that's all it's saying, basically your last sentence.

Second edit: Though now thinking more IDK if that's an accurate way to calculate it and may be misleading, but not sure. But I do think that's what they're doing at least.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
slicedbread2
Starter
Posts: 2,131
And1: 982
Joined: Jan 23, 2014

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#772 » by slicedbread2 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:24 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:Yeah it's al about perspective and if you asked me before the season I would obviously be excited about having 48% to get the 5th pick. Other than that I think their odds of being good in 2024-2026 are higher now. Harden will be 35 years old...Houston have a lot of picks and will probably be able to make a quick rebuild.


I think Tillman Fertita is a terrible owner. And you also have his son as one of their top executives. I love seeing nepotism in a competitor. Their moves this season haven’t given me much confidence in their competence in rebuilding. Could they? Sure. I think they’re more likely to have a toxic atmosphere with poor management.


Fertita is a terrible owner for sure but I like Rafael stone's job so far. Some kind of bad moves (Oladipo) but overall he's doing well.

Things are quiet terrible in Houston because Wood is their only valuable piece and they don't have good young players yet but if they get their own FRP + the other two late FRPs for this year draft, they could start a nice rebuild.

I was crazy happy about the WB/CP3 trade because the picks and pick swap were mostly in some post Harden era but now they have a lot more time & assets before we get those picks, so overall it's not as great as it was. But sure you need good management and a lot of luck for a rebuild to work so we don't know what will happen by then.


Rafael Stone when you think of it has done the best job he has been able to given the circumstances. He's a Morey disciple who's in a lose-lose situation where the owner is broke and heavily in debt not to mention the nepotism angle putting his own kid as an executive. This along with the Hong Kong debacle was the breaking point that made Morey decide to quit due to the fact he spent 13 years building a team with really no lotto picks. Highest pick was maybe 12th? To see his fruits of labour go south b/c of a cheapskate owner is disgusting.

For those who don't know, Tillman Fertitta bought the franchise by leveraging his business empire and took out a $200M loan from Les Alexander. Les took the 2 Larry O'Brien trophies the Rockets won and gave the new owner replicas so right now the Rockets aren't getting back those 2 trophies and are being used as collateral. COVID-19 has wrecked his business and according to the BBB, his bonds are junk.

This has resulted in Stone being forced to take on a poo-poo platter of assets. If he was allowed to take the 76ers offer he could've done this:

1) Get Simmons+Thybulle and multiple 1sts. Reportedly Maxey was considered off limits, but that would've been a nice haul especially as P.J. Tucker could've been shipped there using Al Horford's TPE. Reportedly the 76ers were hesitant on offering Maxey, but we'll never know as the Rockets didn't give the 76ers an opportunity to match the Nets offer+Tightwad Tilly was hellbent on sticking it to Morey and let the personal get in the way of the professional. Bad move.
2) Flipping Simmons. Simmons could've been flipped to another team looking to contend. He could've flipped Simmons to Portland for instance and receive C.J. McCollum+multiple 1sts(23+25). It's obvious the small back court exp. in Portland wasn't working and with Trent Jr.'s emergence this would've been a sweet gig.
3) Flip McCollum. His deal is pretty long and there was an ideal landing spot for him: Miami. The Heat would've had no problem going for him as he'd fit in perfectly with Butler+Bam's timeline. C.J.'s deal is a year longer than Butler and no options. I think the Heat would've had no hesitation offering Herro+Achiuwa+filler and picks.

If 2+3 didn't work out. He could've flipped Simmons to Minnesota and get a package centred around Anthony Edwards and multiple 1sts due to the friendship between Towns, Russell and Simmons.

He instead was forced to settle for this with the dealing of P.J. Tucker in order to save money:

1) Kelly Olynyk+Avery Bradley+D.J. Wilson+Dante Exum+D.J. Augustin. Bradley has a T/O that'll most likely be declined and everybody besides Augustin will be gone at the end of the year. Augustin's last year is only guaranteed for $333,333.
2) A bunch of picks in the following order:

-2021 MIL 1st. Houston has the option to swap their 2nd with the Bucks 1st which will be exercised as they'll have an extra year of team control.
-2022 Brooklyn 1st. Thanks to the Oladipo deal, the Rockets can swap their Brooklyn 1st with Miami's 1st provided the pick falls outside the top 14.
-2023 MIL 1st. The Rockets got the Bucks 22 1st in dealing Jarrett Allen to CLE in order to get out of Taurean Prince's deal in exchange for Dante Exum. They returned the Bucks 22 1st in order to get the 23.
-24+26 1sts from Brooklyn. These ones will be interesting as the Rockets are very likely to lose their own picks in this draft, but may be good enough to the point that they won't need those picks who knows.
-The opportunity to swap picks with Brooklyn in 21+23+25+27. The later picks could be of value. TBD.

If Harden leaves, yea the Nets are in big trouble as KD can't stay healthy and Kyrie is a mixed bag who plays when he feels like it. Luckily for the Nets Sean Marks is in charge and he did a great job in turning the Nets from a scrap heap of hopelessness into a port of hope. Plus it helps that the Nets are good at developing players so the only hit they may take is the picks towards the end but we'll see.

I honestly think if the owner allowed Stone to take Philly's offer he could've spread out all his eggs in multiple baskets if he was allowed to do anywhere near what I proposed. Sadly it was all about cap relief in the end.
Devilanche
Veteran
Posts: 2,780
And1: 175
Joined: Dec 22, 2010

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#773 » by Devilanche » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:58 am

bondom34 wrote:Edit: And if that isn't it IDK haha. But that is what they're doing for say Houston or Minnesota it seems, just adding up the odds. It has MIN at 40%, which is the odds of them being 1, 2, or 3. It's also off from them by 1% which seems super close but also strange so IDK for sure but seems it works for most teams (might be due to changes they project in standings?). But I think that sorta makes sense if you follow? I also don't want to be super definitive and be wrong, but its close to what they're getting and putting on their site.

Pretty sure that's all it's saying, basically your last sentence.

Second edit: Though now thinking more IDK if that's an accurate way to calculate it and may be misleading, but not sure. But I do think that's what they're doing at least.



You can’t add the odds of the 2 picks cause Houston being 5th is independent of where OKC picks lands.

Of course the higher the number the more likely we will get one pick in the top 5 but 100% or more obviously doesn’t guarantee we get one pick in the top 5.

I’m not sure how to count for the higher odds other than addition though.
User avatar
jake_swivel
Senior
Posts: 676
And1: 370
Joined: Jul 07, 2019

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#774 » by jake_swivel » Sat Apr 24, 2021 9:14 am

Spoiler:
slicedbread2 wrote:Rafael Stone when you think of it has done the best job he has been able to given the circumstances. He's a Morey disciple who's in a lose-lose situation where the owner is broke and heavily in debt not to mention the nepotism angle putting his own kid as an executive. This along with the Hong Kong debacle was the breaking point that made Morey decide to quit due to the fact he spent 13 years building a team with really no lotto picks. Highest pick was maybe 12th? To see his fruits of labour go south b/c of a cheapskate owner is disgusting.

For those who don't know, Tillman Fertitta bought the franchise by leveraging his business empire and took out a $200M loan from Les Alexander. Les took the 2 Larry O'Brien trophies the Rockets won and gave the new owner replicas so right now the Rockets aren't getting back those 2 trophies and are being used as collateral. COVID-19 has wrecked his business and according to the BBB, his bonds are junk.

This has resulted in Stone being forced to take on a poo-poo platter of assets. If he was allowed to take the 76ers offer he could've done this:

1) Get Simmons+Thybulle and multiple 1sts. Reportedly Maxey was considered off limits, but that would've been a nice haul especially as P.J. Tucker could've been shipped there using Al Horford's TPE. Reportedly the 76ers were hesitant on offering Maxey, but we'll never know as the Rockets didn't give the 76ers an opportunity to match the Nets offer+Tightwad Tilly was hellbent on sticking it to Morey and let the personal get in the way of the professional. Bad move.
2) Flipping Simmons. Simmons could've been flipped to another team looking to contend. He could've flipped Simmons to Portland for instance and receive C.J. McCollum+multiple 1sts(23+25). It's obvious the small back court exp. in Portland wasn't working and with Trent Jr.'s emergence this would've been a sweet gig.
3) Flip McCollum. His deal is pretty long and there was an ideal landing spot for him: Miami. The Heat would've had no problem going for him as he'd fit in perfectly with Butler+Bam's timeline. C.J.'s deal is a year longer than Butler and no options. I think the Heat would've had no hesitation offering Herro+Achiuwa+filler and picks.

If 2+3 didn't work out. He could've flipped Simmons to Minnesota and get a package centred around Anthony Edwards and multiple 1sts due to the friendship between Towns, Russell and Simmons.

He instead was forced to settle for this with the dealing of P.J. Tucker in order to save money:

1) Kelly Olynyk+Avery Bradley+D.J. Wilson+Dante Exum+D.J. Augustin. Bradley has a T/O that'll most likely be declined and everybody besides Augustin will be gone at the end of the year. Augustin's last year is only guaranteed for $333,333.
2) A bunch of picks in the following order:

-2021 MIL 1st. Houston has the option to swap their 2nd with the Bucks 1st which will be exercised as they'll have an extra year of team control.
-2022 Brooklyn 1st. Thanks to the Oladipo deal, the Rockets can swap their Brooklyn 1st with Miami's 1st provided the pick falls outside the top 14.
-2023 MIL 1st. The Rockets got the Bucks 22 1st in dealing Jarrett Allen to CLE in order to get out of Taurean Prince's deal in exchange for Dante Exum. They returned the Bucks 22 1st in order to get the 23.
-24+26 1sts from Brooklyn. These ones will be interesting as the Rockets are very likely to lose their own picks in this draft, but may be good enough to the point that they won't need those picks who knows.
-The opportunity to swap picks with Brooklyn in 21+23+25+27. The later picks could be of value. TBD.

If Harden leaves, yea the Nets are in big trouble as KD can't stay healthy and Kyrie is a mixed bag who plays when he feels like it. Luckily for the Nets Sean Marks is in charge and he did a great job in turning the Nets from a scrap heap of hopelessness into a port of hope. Plus it helps that the Nets are good at developing players so the only hit they may take is the picks towards the end but we'll see.

I honestly think if the owner allowed Stone to take Philly's offer he could've spread out all his eggs in multiple baskets if he was allowed to do anywhere near what I proposed. Sadly it was all about cap relief in the end.


Great post.

I agree that not getting Simmons was a mistake, not because Simmons is great, but because he raises their floor. Houston's problem is that their future is heavily dependent on getting this year's pick. If they don't.....oh boy. They're going to have to tank for three seasons in a row, one of which was for nothing, then after those two years, they aren't guaranteed to have the benefit of supplementary picks (because of the OKC trade) to help with the newer picks. And if picks from 22/23 don't pan out huge, and they ALSO don't end up controlling their own picks 24-26, welp, they could be in the cellar for an entire DECADE. And in addition, Fertita is headed to Dolans-ville in being an owner that players don't want to play for, especially in this current political climate.

Of course, the Rockets might get the number one pick this year and then proceed to get two high picks the next couple years. Everything could be righted in the draft. But just look at Sacramento. Getting high picks doesn't guarantee success. It also takes great management decisions. And maybe Stone is better than he looks. Maybe this is all due to Tillman. But right now we don't know for sure. Maybe he just genuinely took the Nets deal because he preferred it. The handling of Oladipo was a damn problem.

The Fertita family is basically the mafia. That was easy to see with his brother's ownership of the UFC and their casinos, and this Houston debacle falls right in line with that. They are all about asset control, and they view their employees as assets. It worked in the UFC because they have 100% control over 99% of the fighters. What they say goes. But in the NBA, the players have way too much agency for that approach to work. And I doubt it's in Tillman's DNA to adjust. Add to that the financial problems you mentioned, and Houston is in a super dicey position. The NBA is largely determined by luck, but Houston's situation is now almost totally reliant on luck before effective management even comes into play.

Thunder fans were arguing about Presti the last few years. Holy smokes, thank your lucky stars. Even if OKC doesn't end up champs, being a fan of a crappily run organization is a hellish experience. It's like watching someone drive your beloved car off a cliff over and over. Unless you're a masochist, just quit following them. At the very least, this rebuild is going to be a fun, interesting experience. As a sports fan, you want championships, but having fun watching the process is great too.

Also, as an OKC fan, it's great that those Nets picks only have the chance to start being assets that improve their W/Ls right as we end control of Houston's picks. It takes rookies awhile to actually end up contributing. I'm not worried at all about the early Mil/Nets picks mattering.
slicedbread2
Starter
Posts: 2,131
And1: 982
Joined: Jan 23, 2014

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#775 » by slicedbread2 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:13 am

jake_swivel wrote:
Spoiler:
slicedbread2 wrote:Rafael Stone when you think of it has done the best job he has been able to given the circumstances. He's a Morey disciple who's in a lose-lose situation where the owner is broke and heavily in debt not to mention the nepotism angle putting his own kid as an executive. This along with the Hong Kong debacle was the breaking point that made Morey decide to quit due to the fact he spent 13 years building a team with really no lotto picks. Highest pick was maybe 12th? To see his fruits of labour go south b/c of a cheapskate owner is disgusting.

For those who don't know, Tillman Fertitta bought the franchise by leveraging his business empire and took out a $200M loan from Les Alexander. Les took the 2 Larry O'Brien trophies the Rockets won and gave the new owner replicas so right now the Rockets aren't getting back those 2 trophies and are being used as collateral. COVID-19 has wrecked his business and according to the BBB, his bonds are junk.

This has resulted in Stone being forced to take on a poo-poo platter of assets. If he was allowed to take the 76ers offer he could've done this:

1) Get Simmons+Thybulle and multiple 1sts. Reportedly Maxey was considered off limits, but that would've been a nice haul especially as P.J. Tucker could've been shipped there using Al Horford's TPE. Reportedly the 76ers were hesitant on offering Maxey, but we'll never know as the Rockets didn't give the 76ers an opportunity to match the Nets offer+Tightwad Tilly was hellbent on sticking it to Morey and let the personal get in the way of the professional. Bad move.
2) Flipping Simmons. Simmons could've been flipped to another team looking to contend. He could've flipped Simmons to Portland for instance and receive C.J. McCollum+multiple 1sts(23+25). It's obvious the small back court exp. in Portland wasn't working and with Trent Jr.'s emergence this would've been a sweet gig.
3) Flip McCollum. His deal is pretty long and there was an ideal landing spot for him: Miami. The Heat would've had no problem going for him as he'd fit in perfectly with Butler+Bam's timeline. C.J.'s deal is a year longer than Butler and no options. I think the Heat would've had no hesitation offering Herro+Achiuwa+filler and picks.

If 2+3 didn't work out. He could've flipped Simmons to Minnesota and get a package centred around Anthony Edwards and multiple 1sts due to the friendship between Towns, Russell and Simmons.

He instead was forced to settle for this with the dealing of P.J. Tucker in order to save money:

1) Kelly Olynyk+Avery Bradley+D.J. Wilson+Dante Exum+D.J. Augustin. Bradley has a T/O that'll most likely be declined and everybody besides Augustin will be gone at the end of the year. Augustin's last year is only guaranteed for $333,333.
2) A bunch of picks in the following order:

-2021 MIL 1st. Houston has the option to swap their 2nd with the Bucks 1st which will be exercised as they'll have an extra year of team control.
-2022 Brooklyn 1st. Thanks to the Oladipo deal, the Rockets can swap their Brooklyn 1st with Miami's 1st provided the pick falls outside the top 14.
-2023 MIL 1st. The Rockets got the Bucks 22 1st in dealing Jarrett Allen to CLE in order to get out of Taurean Prince's deal in exchange for Dante Exum. They returned the Bucks 22 1st in order to get the 23.
-24+26 1sts from Brooklyn. These ones will be interesting as the Rockets are very likely to lose their own picks in this draft, but may be good enough to the point that they won't need those picks who knows.
-The opportunity to swap picks with Brooklyn in 21+23+25+27. The later picks could be of value. TBD.

If Harden leaves, yea the Nets are in big trouble as KD can't stay healthy and Kyrie is a mixed bag who plays when he feels like it. Luckily for the Nets Sean Marks is in charge and he did a great job in turning the Nets from a scrap heap of hopelessness into a port of hope. Plus it helps that the Nets are good at developing players so the only hit they may take is the picks towards the end but we'll see.

I honestly think if the owner allowed Stone to take Philly's offer he could've spread out all his eggs in multiple baskets if he was allowed to do anywhere near what I proposed. Sadly it was all about cap relief in the end.


Great post.

I agree that not getting Simmons was a mistake, not because Simmons is great, but because he raises their floor. Houston's problem is that their future is heavily dependent on getting this year's pick. If they don't.....oh boy. They're going to have to tank for three seasons in a row, one of which was for nothing, then after those two years, they aren't guaranteed to have the benefit of supplementary picks (because of the OKC trade) to help with the newer picks. And if picks from 22/23 don't pan out huge, and they ALSO don't end up controlling their own picks 24-26, welp, they could be in the cellar for an entire DECADE. And in addition, Fertita is headed to Dolans-ville in being an owner that players don't want to play for, especially in this current political climate.

Of course, the Rockets might get the number one pick this year and then proceed to get two high picks the next couple years. Everything could be righted in the draft. But just look at Sacramento. Getting high picks doesn't guarantee success. It also takes great management decisions. And maybe Stone is better than he looks. Maybe this is all due to Tillman. But right now we don't know for sure. Maybe he just genuinely took the Nets deal because he preferred it. The handling of Oladipo was a damn problem.

The Fertita family is basically the mafia. That was easy to see with his brother's ownership of the UFC and their casinos, and this Houston debacle falls right in line with that. They are all about asset control, and they view their employees as assets. It worked in the UFC because they have 100% control over 99% of the fighters. What they say goes. But in the NBA, the players have way too much agency for that approach to work. And I doubt it's in Tillman's DNA to adjust. Add to that the financial problems you mentioned, and Houston is in a super dicey position. The NBA is largely determined by luck, but Houston's situation is now almost totally reliant on luck before effective management even comes into play.

Thunder fans were arguing about Presti the last few years. Holy smokes, thank your lucky stars. Even if OKC doesn't end up champs, being a fan of a crappily run organization is a hellish experience. It's like watching someone drive your beloved car off a cliff over and over. Unless you're a masochist, just quit following them. At the very least, this rebuild is going to be a fun, interesting experience. As a sports fan, you want championships, but having fun watching the process is great too.

Also, as an OKC fan, it's great that those Nets picks only have the chance to start being assets that improve their W/Ls right as we end control of Houston's picks. It takes rookies awhile to actually end up contributing. I'm not worried at all about the early Mil/Nets picks mattering.


Oh absolutely. Tillman is actually the cousin of the Fertitta bros(Father's are siblings) who ran the UFC before selling it to Endeavour which is a talent agency that merged with William Morris agency. Ari Emanuel is the CEO who's the brother of former mayor of Chicago and Obama admin. chief of staff Rahm Emanuel

The crazy thing with this guy is that he hasn't learned that the players run the league. I'll never forget Howard Schultz, CEO emeritus of Starbucks who bought the Supersonics with 56 other investors(I kid you not!) and thought that he could run an NBA team the way he did with Starbucks. Gary Payton put him in his place and reminded him that he wasn't one of his Starbucks employees who had to put up with his BS and that he needed him more than he ever needed Schultz. Howie's ego couldn't handle it, criticized Payton in the media and complained about how much money he was making then traded him after 13 years in Seattle. He was public enemy #1 and ended up being the main reason that people despised him and it allowed the team to relocate.

Scary thought is Tillman could pull that same stunt and become a bigger pariah than he already is in Houston. He's a fusion form of the meddlesome nature of James Dolan and the cheapskate mindset of Robert Sarver blended into one. This time the league wouldn't allow it and would more than likely force a sale to a local owner.

If the Rockets owner had simply taken the 76ers offer and allowed the GM to make the following that could've been they'd better off. Instead of relying on Brooklyn's picks to amount into something which was the put all your eggs in one basket approach, he could've had the risk diversification mindset in the following ways:

1) Sending Zach Collins, C.J. McCollum and Ben McLemore to Miami, Ben Simmons, Kelly Olynyk and Danuel House Jr. Portland, P.J. Tucker and James Harden to Philly in exchange for Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, Precious Achiuwa, Tyrese Maxey(maybe), expiring contracts and multiple 1sts. He'd have 3-4 players under team control for 3-4 years before having to negotiate a new contract.
2) Instead of relying on BRK's picks(MIL's picks are useless as they've resigned their big 3), they could've relied on PHI, MIA and POR's 1sts. Anything could've happened and they could've used one or multiple of those picks to move up in the draft for a desired player if need be.
3) If the Simmons to Portland deal didn't materialize, could've just sent him to Minnesota and take advantage of a desperate GM in Rosas knowing he'd make a deal centred around Anthony Edwards and multiple 1sts as a starting point.

I know people gave Presti a lot of flack and I'll say he made one blunder which was stretching Kyle Singler when he was better off letting his deal expire. Oddly enough, if his cap hit of 999,200 was removed, the Thunder would've been under the tax by 200k. Instead they were over it by 700k. This year would've allowed OKC to reset all repeater penalties on the luxury tax. Instead they'll likely spend one more year being under the tax significantly before re-upping SGA.

This would've sounded dumb, but if Presti really wanted to, I think he could've convinced the Rockets owner to remove the picks on the swaps owed to OKC if the Thunder were willing to eat John Wall's salary. It wouldn't have been worth it as Wall could've created a toxic locker room which would've been a nightmare, but knowing the owner's financial straits I wouldn't have been surprised. They could've done something like this prior to the season:

Charlotte: Al Horford
OKC: John Wall, 2 2nds from BOS, protection on picks+swaps from HOU removed, OKC could've kept Zeller for the year and move him at the deadline if need be and instead send out the dudes they chose to cut prior to the year like T.J. Leaf and send out Quincy Miller, Justin Jackson, Admiral Schofield and whoever else.
HOU: Cody Zeller(Gallo's TPE), Nicolas Batum(Adams TPE) deal to be made after OKC+CHA.

I know Charlotte isn't a FA destination, but Horford would be a good vet mentor to their team and their young bigs in particular Vernon Carey Jr. His presence with Hayward and Rozier would help a young team developing said identity.

Houston gets financial relief while OKC eats a bad deal which will expire during the first year of SGA's new deal. If Wall were to stay healthy and get overconfident(unlikely), maybe he'd opt out. Stone wouldn't do a deal like that, but Tillman overrode Morey in the Westbrook deal so anything's possible with that loose cannon.

Either way it's good to ponder what could've been but in the end Presti is in a good spot and it could always be worse.
User avatar
jake_swivel
Senior
Posts: 676
And1: 370
Joined: Jul 07, 2019

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#776 » by jake_swivel » Sat Apr 24, 2021 11:31 am

Spoiler:
slicedbread2 wrote:
Oh absolutely. Tillman is actually the cousin of the Fertitta bros(Father's are siblings) who ran the UFC before selling it to Endeavour which is a talent agency that merged with William Morris agency. Ari Emanuel is the CEO who's the brother of former mayor of Chicago and Obama admin. chief of staff Rahm Emanuel

The crazy thing with this guy is that he hasn't learned that the players run the league. I'll never forget Howard Schultz, CEO emeritus of Starbucks who bought the Supersonics with 56 other investors(I kid you not!) and thought that he could run an NBA team the way he did with Starbucks. Gary Payton put him in his place and reminded him that he wasn't one of his Starbucks employees who had to put up with his BS and that he needed him more than he ever needed Schultz. Howie's ego couldn't handle it, criticized Payton in the media and complained about how much money he was making then traded him after 13 years in Seattle. He was public enemy #1 and ended up being the main reason that people despised him and it allowed the team to relocate.

Scary thought is Tillman could pull that same stunt and become a bigger pariah than he already is in Houston. He's a fusion form of the meddlesome nature of James Dolan and the cheapskate mindset of Robert Sarver blended into one. This time the league wouldn't allow it and would more than likely force a sale to a local owner.

If the Rockets owner had simply taken the 76ers offer and allowed the GM to make the following that could've been they'd better off. Instead of relying on Brooklyn's picks to amount into something which was the put all your eggs in one basket approach, he could've had the risk diversification mindset in the following ways:

1) Sending Zach Collins, C.J. McCollum and Ben McLemore to Miami, Ben Simmons, Kelly Olynyk and Danuel House Jr. Portland, P.J. Tucker and James Harden to Philly in exchange for Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, Precious Achiuwa, Tyrese Maxey(maybe), expiring contracts and multiple 1sts. He'd have 3-4 players under team control for 3-4 years before having to negotiate a new contract.
2) Instead of relying on BRK's picks(MIL's picks are useless as they've resigned their big 3), they could've relied on PHI, MIA and POR's 1sts. Anything could've happened and they could've used one or multiple of those picks to move up in the draft for a desired player if need be.
3) If the Simmons to Portland deal didn't materialize, could've just sent him to Minnesota and take advantage of a desperate GM in Rosas knowing he'd make a deal centred around Anthony Edwards and multiple 1sts as a starting point.

I know people gave Presti a lot of flack and I'll say he made one blunder which was stretching Kyle Singler when he was better off letting his deal expire. Oddly enough, if his cap hit of 999,200 was removed, the Thunder would've been under the tax by 200k. Instead they were over it by 700k. This year would've allowed OKC to reset all repeater penalties on the luxury tax. Instead they'll likely spend one more year being under the tax significantly before re-upping SGA.

This would've sounded dumb, but if Presti really wanted to, I think he could've convinced the Rockets owner to remove the picks on the swaps owed to OKC if the Thunder were willing to eat John Wall's salary. It wouldn't have been worth it as Wall could've created a toxic locker room which would've been a nightmare, but knowing the owner's financial straits I wouldn't have been surprised. They could've done something like this prior to the season:

Charlotte: Al Horford
OKC: John Wall, 2 2nds from BOS, protection on picks+swaps from HOU removed, OKC could've kept Zeller for the year and move him at the deadline if need be and instead send out the dudes they chose to cut prior to the year like T.J. Leaf and send out Quincy Miller, Justin Jackson, Admiral Schofield and whoever else.
HOU: Cody Zeller(Gallo's TPE), Nicolas Batum(Adams TPE) deal to be made after OKC+CHA.

I know Charlotte isn't a FA destination, but Horford would be a good vet mentor to their team and their young bigs in particular Vernon Carey Jr. His presence with Hayward and Rozier would help a young team developing said identity.

Houston gets financial relief while OKC eats a bad deal which will expire during the first year of SGA's new deal. If Wall were to stay healthy and get overconfident(unlikely), maybe he'd opt out. Stone wouldn't do a deal like that, but Tillman overrode Morey in the Westbrook deal so anything's possible with that loose cannon.

Either way it's good to ponder what could've been but in the end Presti is in a good spot and it could always be worse.


I was just coming back here to correct the "brother" to "cousin" but you beat me. Heh.

If OKC didn't have control over Houston's picks, I'd feel bad for them. No fan base (not even the Knicks) deserve an ownership/management who is this bad. It kills your love for the sport. It's just so brutal.

Hadn't thought of the Schultz angle. Tillman is like a weird Dolan/Sarver/Schultz/Sterling amalgamation. But with nepotism too. Such a nightmare.

I'd have thought hard about that John Wall trade, but likely would have been good with it. I kinda think the Hornets weren't up for taking Horford, though. That deal would have been great for them, but they could have had some variation of it without Houston being involved and didn't. And I think OKC would have been all over the chance to tank from the start of the year.

Dig your posts. Swing by more often.
mr570
Junior
Posts: 366
And1: 211
Joined: Jul 01, 2018
Location: Springfield, MO
 

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#777 » by mr570 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 2:13 pm

I wonder on some level if TIllman isn't betting on the Nets picks so much as he's betting on Houston's picks. The assets they sent to OKC are only protected 1-4. That's a very thin line to walk... unless you're unquestionably the worst team in the league in that timeframe.

It's a little conniving and may not be ultimately rewarding (though very likely that it will be) but I can see the practicality of getting as bad as possible as quickly as possible, especially with these next two drafts coming up. It's what the Thunder should have been doing, right? Too bad the lottery only takes record into account.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#778 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 5:48 pm

[url][/url]
Devilanche wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Edit: And if that isn't it IDK haha. But that is what they're doing for say Houston or Minnesota it seems, just adding up the odds. It has MIN at 40%, which is the odds of them being 1, 2, or 3. It's also off from them by 1% which seems super close but also strange so IDK for sure but seems it works for most teams (might be due to changes they project in standings?). But I think that sorta makes sense if you follow? I also don't want to be super definitive and be wrong, but its close to what they're getting and putting on their site.

Pretty sure that's all it's saying, basically your last sentence.

Second edit: Though now thinking more IDK if that's an accurate way to calculate it and may be misleading, but not sure. But I do think that's what they're doing at least.



You can’t add the odds of the 2 picks cause Houston being 5th is independent of where OKC picks lands.

Of course the higher the number the more likely we will get one pick in the top 5 but 100% or more obviously doesn’t guarantee we get one pick in the top 5.

I’m not sure how to count for the higher odds other than addition though.

Yeah I'm not entirely sure either but think that's all they're doing. But now I'm googling to check the math and remember probability and found:

Always begin by separating out the probabilities of each event, Then:
If all the events happen (an "and question") Multiply the probabilities together.
If only one of the events happens (an "or question") Add the probabilities together.


Which is what that would be. Only 1 needs to happen for them to get a single top 5 pick, which is what was being done, so the addition would work. They're independent but it is asking if either/or happens. From what I can gather I think that's what the Ringer is doing?
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Dadouv47
Head Coach
Posts: 7,284
And1: 3,205
Joined: Mar 22, 2015
   

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#779 » by Dadouv47 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:30 pm

bondom34 wrote:[url][/url]
Devilanche wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Edit: And if that isn't it IDK haha. But that is what they're doing for say Houston or Minnesota it seems, just adding up the odds. It has MIN at 40%, which is the odds of them being 1, 2, or 3. It's also off from them by 1% which seems super close but also strange so IDK for sure but seems it works for most teams (might be due to changes they project in standings?). But I think that sorta makes sense if you follow? I also don't want to be super definitive and be wrong, but its close to what they're getting and putting on their site.

Pretty sure that's all it's saying, basically your last sentence.

Second edit: Though now thinking more IDK if that's an accurate way to calculate it and may be misleading, but not sure. But I do think that's what they're doing at least.



You can’t add the odds of the 2 picks cause Houston being 5th is independent of where OKC picks lands.

Of course the higher the number the more likely we will get one pick in the top 5 but 100% or more obviously doesn’t guarantee we get one pick in the top 5.

I’m not sure how to count for the higher odds other than addition though.

Yeah I'm not entirely sure either but think that's all they're doing. But now I'm googling to check the math and remember probability and found:

Always begin by separating out the probabilities of each event, Then:
If all the events happen (an "and question") Multiply the probabilities together.
If only one of the events happens (an "or question") Add the probabilities together.


Which is what that would be. Only 1 needs to happen for them to get a single top 5 pick, which is what was being done, so the addition would work. They're independent but it is asking if either/or happens. From what I can gather I think that's what the Ringer is doing?


That's my problem. You can't consider them as independent. If you don't get the 48% from Houston you can't add 44% for OKC since one of those four places will be for the Rockets.

So our odds to should be 47,9% + 44.2% - 10.5 or 10.6.
= 81.6 or 81.7%
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 65,309
And1: 49,244
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#780 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:34 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:[url][/url]
Devilanche wrote:

You can’t add the odds of the 2 picks cause Houston being 5th is independent of where OKC picks lands.

Of course the higher the number the more likely we will get one pick in the top 5 but 100% or more obviously doesn’t guarantee we get one pick in the top 5.

I’m not sure how to count for the higher odds other than addition though.

Yeah I'm not entirely sure either but think that's all they're doing. But now I'm googling to check the math and remember probability and found:

Always begin by separating out the probabilities of each event, Then:
If all the events happen (an "and question") Multiply the probabilities together.
If only one of the events happens (an "or question") Add the probabilities together.


Which is what that would be. Only 1 needs to happen for them to get a single top 5 pick, which is what was being done, so the addition would work. They're independent but it is asking if either/or happens. From what I can gather I think that's what the Ringer is doing?


That's my problem. You can't consider them as independent. If you don't get the 48% from Houston you can't add 44% for OKC since one of those four places will be for the Rockets.

So our odds to should be 47,9% + 44.2% - 10.5 or 10.6.
= 81.6 or 81.7%

This actually makes a bit more sense. I think this might be it, still really high but think that's it, you just need to subtract out their odds for getting one of the picks. Or subtract out the percentage for Houston which is still upper 70s. But they may be off slightly and it's somewhere closer to where you said.

Makes a bit more sense I think.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO

Return to Oklahoma City Thunder