20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News

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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#781 » by bondom34 » Sat Apr 24, 2021 6:42 pm

bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:[url][/url]
Yeah I'm not entirely sure either but think that's all they're doing. But now I'm googling to check the math and remember probability and found:



Which is what that would be. Only 1 needs to happen for them to get a single top 5 pick, which is what was being done, so the addition would work. They're independent but it is asking if either/or happens. From what I can gather I think that's what the Ringer is doing?


That's my problem. You can't consider them as independent. If you don't get the 48% from Houston you can't add 44% for OKC since one of those four places will be for the Rockets.

So our odds to should be 47,9% + 44.2% - 10.5 or 10.6.
= 81.6 or 81.7%

This actually makes a bit more sense. I think this might be it, still really high but think that's it, you just need to subtract out their odds for getting one of the picks. Or subtract out the percentage for Houston which is still upper 70s. But they may be off slightly and it's somewhere closer to where you said.

Makes a bit more sense I think.

Wait....but now I'm not sure again lol.

I'm not sure it's asking that "if" part. Just the odds of any of the events happening.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#782 » by jake_swivel » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:11 am

bondom34 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
That's my problem. You can't consider them as independent. If you don't get the 48% from Houston you can't add 44% for OKC since one of those four places will be for the Rockets.

So our odds to should be 47,9% + 44.2% - 10.5 or 10.6.
= 81.6 or 81.7%

This actually makes a bit more sense. I think this might be it, still really high but think that's it, you just need to subtract out their odds for getting one of the picks. Or subtract out the percentage for Houston which is still upper 70s. But they may be off slightly and it's somewhere closer to where you said.

Makes a bit more sense I think.

Wait....but now I'm not sure again lol.

I'm not sure it's asking that "if" part. Just the odds of any of the events happening.



I don't think you'd subtract the 10%. At that point, you're double dipping because the odds of Houston getting one of those picks is already built into OKC's odds of getting a top 4 pick.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#783 » by bondom34 » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:22 am

jake_swivel wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
bondom34 wrote:This actually makes a bit more sense. I think this might be it, still really high but think that's it, you just need to subtract out their odds for getting one of the picks. Or subtract out the percentage for Houston which is still upper 70s. But they may be off slightly and it's somewhere closer to where you said.

Makes a bit more sense I think.

Wait....but now I'm not sure again lol.

I'm not sure it's asking that "if" part. Just the odds of any of the events happening.



I don't think you'd subtract the 10%. At that point, you're double dipping because the odds of Houston getting one of those picks is already built into OKC's odds of getting a top 4 pick.

Yeah, I think that's what it is (what I'd said at first, was overthinking it afterward). You wouldn't subtract. I'm guessing the very slight difference might be due to possibly changing the standings but think you'd add them, which gets to what they're at. Houston's pick odds plus OKC's would be it, so that's all it is (48+44ish).
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#784 » by cjmcallist » Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:37 pm

bondom34 wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Wait....but now I'm not sure again lol.

I'm not sure it's asking that "if" part. Just the odds of any of the events happening.



I don't think you'd subtract the 10%. At that point, you're double dipping because the odds of Houston getting one of those picks is already built into OKC's odds of getting a top 4 pick.

Yeah, I think that's what it is (what I'd said at first, was overthinking it afterward). You wouldn't subtract. I'm guessing the very slight difference might be due to possibly changing the standings but think you'd add them, which gets to what they're at. Houston's pick odds plus OKC's would be it, so that's all it is (48+44ish).

Well, now that you figured it out - they changed it.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

Now showing the odds for each team getting 1 top 5 pick, and 2 top 5 picks.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#785 » by bondom34 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 3:08 pm

cjmcallist wrote:
bondom34 wrote:
jake_swivel wrote:

I don't think you'd subtract the 10%. At that point, you're double dipping because the odds of Houston getting one of those picks is already built into OKC's odds of getting a top 4 pick.

Yeah, I think that's what it is (what I'd said at first, was overthinking it afterward). You wouldn't subtract. I'm guessing the very slight difference might be due to possibly changing the standings but think you'd add them, which gets to what they're at. Houston's pick odds plus OKC's would be it, so that's all it is (48+44ish).

Well, now that you figured it out - they changed it.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

Now showing the odds for each team getting 1 top 5 pick, and 2 top 5 picks.

Well now I'm just gonna let the math to them lol. If I'm bored maybe I'll think about it later. And this is way lower (which seems a little weird but I don't know).
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#786 » by thedoppelganger » Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:19 pm

bondom34 wrote:
cjmcallist wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Yeah, I think that's what it is (what I'd said at first, was overthinking it afterward). You wouldn't subtract. I'm guessing the very slight difference might be due to possibly changing the standings but think you'd add them, which gets to what they're at. Houston's pick odds plus OKC's would be it, so that's all it is (48+44ish).

Well, now that you figured it out - they changed it.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/4/8/22373059/playoff-lottery-odds-probability-model

Now showing the odds for each team getting 1 top 5 pick, and 2 top 5 picks.

Well now I'm just gonna let the math to them lol. If I'm bored maybe I'll think about it later. And this is way lower (which seems a little weird but I don't know).

If they flipped our odds of getting 1 top 5 pick with the Magic, it'd make more sense. 56% for us is definitely way too low, and the Magic should basically just have the odds of their own pick being top 5 since the Bulls pick is top 4 protected and there is almost no chance they are bad enough to end up with the #5 pick. 70% for 1 top 5 pick, 20% for 2 seems about right for us.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#787 » by jake_swivel » Tue Apr 27, 2021 10:44 am

There’s no way the ringer’s model is right. I still think it’s 90%.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#788 » by Dadouv47 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 12:19 pm

they updated to 56%? Doesn't make sense. Still think it's around 80% or even less but gonna study this because I feel bad not being able to count anymore :)
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#789 » by Dadouv47 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 1:56 pm

It's definitely not 90%+ though...
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#790 » by thedoppelganger » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:07 pm

Read on Twitter

This guy won't have it for all teams, but his #s look about right and seems to be updating it daily. So 70-75% for 1 pick and 20-25% for 2 is probably the right range at the moment
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#791 » by jake_swivel » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:08 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:It's definitely not 90%+ though...


tankathon.com’s algorithmic over 50 spins had OKC getting a top 5 pick 27 times, which is roughly what the ringer had it at. Not a scientific approach but whatever that’s worth. I don’t wanna try math right now.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#792 » by Dadouv47 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:56 pm

thedoppelganger wrote:
Read on Twitter

This guy won't have it for all teams, but his #s look about right and seems to be updating it daily. So 70-75% for 1 pick and 20-25% for 2 is probably the right range at the moment


Yeah I guess that's it. Just spoke to a mathematician because it didn't make sense to me that 92% talk since events are dependent. Didn't get the exact number but should be right.

48% to get the Houston pick but only 70-75% chance of having a top 5 pick overall shows how important that Houston pick swap is because it's gonna impact our own odds :(
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#793 » by Old Man Game » Wed Apr 28, 2021 12:12 pm

Joe Mussato at the Oklahoma appears to believe we want Houston to have a worse record.

NBA Draft lottery look
The Thunder still has the fifth-worst record in the NBA.

OKC has a 42% chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.

Houston and Minnesota, owners of the two-worst records in the NBA, are facing off Tuesday night.

The Thunder would prefer a Rockets loss. If Houston finishes with the worst record in the NBA, there’s a 48% chance that its pick falls to OKC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/thunder-vs-celtics-five-takeaways-from-okc-s-win-at-boston/ar-BB1g7B8r?ocid=msedgntp

By the way, they researched it and said this morning on NBA Radio that we fielded the youngest lineup in NBA history last night.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#794 » by Dadouv47 » Wed Apr 28, 2021 6:45 pm

Old Man Game wrote:Joe Mussato at the Oklahoma appears to believe we want Houston to have a worse record.

NBA Draft lottery look
The Thunder still has the fifth-worst record in the NBA.

OKC has a 42% chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.

Houston and Minnesota, owners of the two-worst records in the NBA, are facing off Tuesday night.

The Thunder would prefer a Rockets loss. If Houston finishes with the worst record in the NBA, there’s a 48% chance that its pick falls to OKC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/thunder-vs-celtics-five-takeaways-from-okc-s-win-at-boston/ar-BB1g7B8r?ocid=msedgntp

By the way, they researched it and said this morning on NBA Radio that we fielded the youngest lineup in NBA history last night.



that's pretty obvious. I didn't want Houston to be that bad but if you are a bottom 3 record you get the same odds for picks 1-4 so it's better for us to get 48% at pick n°5 than distributed between picks 5 to 7.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#795 » by Old Man Game » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:39 am

Dadouv47 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:Joe Mussato at the Oklahoma appears to believe we want Houston to have a worse record.

NBA Draft lottery look
The Thunder still has the fifth-worst record in the NBA.

OKC has a 42% chance at a top-four pick and a 10.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.

Houston and Minnesota, owners of the two-worst records in the NBA, are facing off Tuesday night.

The Thunder would prefer a Rockets loss. If Houston finishes with the worst record in the NBA, there’s a 48% chance that its pick falls to OKC.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/thunder-vs-celtics-five-takeaways-from-okc-s-win-at-boston/ar-BB1g7B8r?ocid=msedgntp

By the way, they researched it and said this morning on NBA Radio that we fielded the youngest lineup in NBA history last night.



that's pretty obvious. I didn't want Houston to be that bad but if you are a bottom 3 record you get the same odds for picks 1-4 so it's better for us to get 48% at pick n°5 than distributed between picks 5 to 7.


Maybe I'm not understanding it. According to tankathon.com we'd have slightly better odds of getting their pick if they were 3rd than 1 or 2. Better still 4th. I want them to have less odds at keeping their pick (being 1-4). At worst I'd rather have a mid lotto than some mid-teens Heat pick.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#796 » by Dadouv47 » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:09 pm

Old Man Game wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:Joe Mussato at the Oklahoma appears to believe we want Houston to have a worse record.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/thunder-vs-celtics-five-takeaways-from-okc-s-win-at-boston/ar-BB1g7B8r?ocid=msedgntp

By the way, they researched it and said this morning on NBA Radio that we fielded the youngest lineup in NBA history last night.



that's pretty obvious. I didn't want Houston to be that bad but if you are a bottom 3 record you get the same odds for picks 1-4 so it's better for us to get 48% at pick n°5 than distributed between picks 5 to 7.


Maybe I'm not understanding it. According to tankathon.com we'd have slightly better odds of getting their pick if they were 3rd than 1 or 2. Better still 4th. I want them to have less odds at keeping their pick (being 1-4). At worst I'd rather have a mid lotto than some mid-teens Heat pick.


nah tankaton has Minny & houston with the same odds of a top 4 pick. Our odds of 47,9 to get the pick n°5 are split between pick 5 and 6 for the 2nd worst record (Minny right now). Same logic for the 3rd worst record but right now it's a tie between Orlando and Detroit.

But yeah it sucks that Houston is so bad... I was worried about that since the Harden trade. A bit worried about Miami going up in the standings as well because their schedule is so easy (Boston/Atlanta sucks and the Knicks have a tough 5-6 game road trip in the West)
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#797 » by Devilanche » Thu Apr 29, 2021 1:57 pm

At this stage, let’s enjoy the ride.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#798 » by Old Man Game » Fri Apr 30, 2021 1:38 pm

Dadouv47 wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:
Dadouv47 wrote:

that's pretty obvious. I didn't want Houston to be that bad but if you are a bottom 3 record you get the same odds for picks 1-4 so it's better for us to get 48% at pick n°5 than distributed between picks 5 to 7.


Maybe I'm not understanding it. According to tankathon.com we'd have slightly better odds of getting their pick if they were 3rd than 1 or 2. Better still 4th. I want them to have less odds at keeping their pick (being 1-4). At worst I'd rather have a mid lotto than some mid-teens Heat pick.


nah tankaton has Minny & houston with the same odds of a top 4 pick. Our odds of 47,9 to get the pick n°5 are split between pick 5 and 6 for the 2nd worst record (Minny right now). Same logic for the 3rd worst record but right now it's a tie between Orlando and Detroit.

But yeah it sucks that Houston is so bad... I was worried about that since the Harden trade. A bit worried about Miami going up in the standings as well because their schedule is so easy (Boston/Atlanta sucks and the Knicks have a tough 5-6 game road trip in the West)


Okay, just looked again, and tankathon shows same odds for all the top 3 worst records. I swear to god it showed sligtly lower the other day (something like 50% for the 3rd worst team). I should have screen grabbed it because I thought it was weird given that all season I've heard the top 3 all had equal odds. Either way, to my original point, Mussato is still wrong insofar as he's telling his readers we want them to have the worst record in the league. That's simply incorrect as any of those 3 worst is equal. Local media misinforming our casuals in the fanbase is a pet peeve of mine.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#799 » by Devilanche » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:29 pm

Old Man Game wrote:Okay, just looked again, and tankathon shows same odds for all the top 3 worst records. I swear to god it showed sligtly lower the other day (something like 50% for the 3rd worst team). I should have screen grabbed it because I thought it was weird given that all season I've heard the top 3 all had equal odds. Either way, to my original point, Mussato is still wrong insofar as he's telling his readers we want them to have the worst record in the league. That's simply incorrect as any of those 3 worst is equal. Local media misinforming our casuals in the fanbase is a pet peeve of mine.


He’s not wrong .

The percentage odds are the same that we can get Houston pick so long as Houston is amongst the worst 3 teams but the floor of the pick differs .

If Houston is worst , they can fall no further than 5th after the lotto.
If Houston is second worst, they can fall no further than 5th or 6th after the lotto.
If Houston is third worst, they can fall no further than 5th , 6th or 7th.


So if they are the worst and we get their pick it will be 5th pick for sure hence that’s our best outcome.
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Re: 20-21 OKC Thunder Regular Season News 

Post#800 » by thedoppelganger » Fri Apr 30, 2021 2:36 pm

Read on Twitter

Shame on the Celtics for losing to us

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