RealGM

Ignoring play-in step, actually in final 16.

Best guess at next such appearance.

To make playoffs now or later, Thunder either need to get 8 points better per game on SRS and have no one else who are currently below Warriors play better than current Warriors, or have teams above Warriors slip below, or win enough above their SRS to win at that level...or more likely get even better than that. Basically have to get to last season's level or the 3 seasons before that. Maybe more. Unlikely less.

8pts better for all 48 minutes. If SGA gets 2 pts better in 36 minutes that is 1.5 pts towards the total. If SGA and Dort get 2 pts better and Bazley, Diallo, Maledon and Williams get 1.5 pts better that might add up to +6.5 but then subtract any losses from Horford, Hill, Muscala and they are probably only somewhere around half way there. Either these guys improve by more and / or new rookies and other deep bench play way better than current deep bench and / or Thunder make substantial gains from trades / free agency.

If the thunder rely on building through the draft and find a really good star to go alongside shai, maybe 2023 at the soonest. If we got the route of using assets to trade for a malcontent star, 2023 is more likely. I voted 2024/25.

Really tough to say. 2023 would be perfect but we need to get lucky in the draft...pick 1-4 and something like 7-9 from Houston. If we are really unlucky we may pick #8 and #20. Huge gap in talent and players that could help you to win games ASAP. That's how important the next draft is for us (SGA peaking in a couple of years probably, strong top 5 and a top 4 pick swap that may convey or not). Don't feel good about this

22-23.

I went with '23. May and up missing out, but that feels like when we should be fighting for a spot. It's the next year that will show where we're really at in the rebuild though imo