roster analysis
Posted: Wed Jul 15, 2009 3:26 am
i wrote this for another forum i participate in as a series. i did portland also. it's lengthy but thought it might spark some conversation. note the caps, for some reason when i came to this board orginally i didn't type in caps and it kind of stuck here.. something i wrote here in another thread was a 'rough draft''.
OKC is the team in the division with the most variables. All of the roster additions up to this point are either rookies (Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Byron Mullens) or second year players (D.J. White), so naturally the range of improvement at some positions will be larger than usual. Furthermore, the roster consists of several developing players (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook) and 2009 midseason acquisitions (Nenad Krstic, Shaun Livingston, Thabo Sefolosha) that figure to improve their games for various reasons. Scott Brooks will have his first full year of coaching duties as well. That said, without further ado, here is my positional analysis.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Shaun Livingston, Earl Watson, Chucky Atkins
Point guard was a below average position for the Thunder last season. As good an impression Russell Westbrook made with his outstanding athleticism and occasional scoring prowess, he was not an effective floor general. OKC point guards combined to shoot below 40% last season, one of very few teams to accomplish this feat. Russell Westbrook lead the NBA in turnovers, and while Earl Watson was good taking care of the ball, he was abysmal otherwise and is not likely to get much run in his contract year. Shaun Livingston was a great story and managed to appear in some games last season. His days as an explosive, fast breaking point guard are over, though. The Thunder have been playing him mostly off the ball in Summer League so it is possible they are not looking to him to run the offense at all during the regular season.
Obviously, the key element to this position is Russell Westbrook and how much he improves as a point guard. Westbrook played some games over the Summer and had mixed results. Although he scored at will against the modest competition in Orlando, he still struggled to adequately take care of the ball. Westbrook shows tremendous potential as a scoring guard. He can get into the paint at will. However, he has a tendency to dribble out of control and into trouble, either turning the ball over or putting up a low percentage field goal attempt. Much of the Thunder's future success hinges upon whether Westbrook can improve his decision making with the ball and run the offense efficiently. He was one of the least efficient point guards in the NBA last year, boasting a 1.6:1 A:TO ratio and shooting 39.9% from the field. Sam Presti passed up on one of the most lauded natural point guards to enter an NBA draft (Ricky Rubio) this offseason with the expectation that Westbrook will improve this facet of his game. I feel that Westbrook will improve his FG% and shoot it at around 43% next season. Anything less than a 2:1 A:TO ratio for Westbrook next year will be disappointing, and might give Sam Presti pause about whether or not he's the future at the PG spot.
Shaun Livingston's fate is much more difficult to gauge. Although Livingston was once nearly the athlete Russell Westbrook is, he's now had to transform himself into a smart, heady player. Livingston always had talent handling the ball and running an offense; this was obvious since he was drafted by the Clippers. However, he's been out of basketball for a long time, and seems out of sync playing against Summer League compeition. I think Livingston will be given every chance to contribute to the NBA team next season, but expect that it will be a bumpy road for him as he returns to regulary facing NBA competition. The Thunder hope that Livingston turns the corner during the year and contributes but that might be another year away considering how long he's been out.
Chucky Atkins and Earl Watson are both expiring contracts that are likely to be trade ballast. Watson is not long removed from productive seasons as a backup, so his descent into mediocrity is somewhat mystifying. Atkins has only a partially guaranteed contract, which will almost certainly become part of a trade sometime during the season, most likely toward the trade deadline. Assuming Livingston is given his shot, I don't see much production from either player.
My prediction for Russell Westbrook is 17.4 PPG / 43% / 31% / 81%. 5.1 RPG. 6.5 APG. 1.6 SPG 2:1 A:TO. I think OKC's backup point guard position will remain largely ineffective. These improvements from Russell Westbrook are worth 2-3 more wins over the course of the season.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Weaver
For much of the year, OKC had one of the worst SG rotations in the NBA. The acquisition of Thabo Sefolosha remedied the situation somewhat, but there was still a peculiar lack of shooting from this position. Sam Presti and Thunder fans hope that rookie guard James Harden can turn that around. Indeed, the SG position is one area where the Thunder could potentially add many wins over the course of the year even with average performances from Harden, Sefolosha and Weaver.
Thabo Sefolosha is a terrific defender. He is rangy, an excellent rebounder, and can guard three positions without breaking a sweat. The problem is that he cannot shoot. His jump shot is an ugly piece of work and it's probably not likely to improve drastically any time soon. He gets some easy points thanks to his athleticism and hustle but is not a scorer. This is probably why Sam Presti decided to select James Harden number three overall in this year's draft. Harden is an offensive dynamo, touted as a player who can both create and facilitate offense more or less whenever he gets the urge. James Harden has played in Summer League and has shown himself to be an efficient scorer. His 3pt% is over 40% and his FG% is over 50%. Whether or not Harden maintains that kind of efficiency during the real season is anyone's guess, but it's clear that he can score.
This gives OKC a very nice 1-2 punch at the shooting guard position, where there is potential for a nice boost to the win total. Most feel that James Harden will begin the year as the starting SG, but I'm unsure this will be the case. The Thunder possess a lot of outside shooting in the starting lineup (the whole starting front court consists of perimeter players) and the Russell Westbrook / Thabo Sefolosha combination makes for a very tough defensive backcourt. During the year the Thunder were known to start games off well only to fall behind later on when going to their bench. With James Harden playing the role of sixth man during his rookie season, this might be less of a worry. Presti did not start Westbrook at PG immediately last season even though he was terrific in Summer League. I believe the same will hold true for James Harden.
Kyle Weaver is an interesting prospect who mirrors many of Thabo Sefolosha's abilities although he's not really as good as Thabo. Weaver has been attempting to master the art of three point shooting, and has displayed a much more confident stroke from beyond the arc during the Summer. Weaver will find a role as a situational sub if he can make himself into a shooter since his defense is good and he can handle the ball a little. Otherwise, I see most of his minutes dwindling with Sefolosha, Harden, and Livingston in front of him.
My prediction for James Harden is 14.9 PPG / 45% / 37% / 84%. 3.9 RPG. 2.3 APG. 0.9 SPG. If he wins the starting spot early on (or starts beginning the year) expect slightly higher numbers and Rookie of the Year contention.
My prediction for Thabo Sefolosha is 7.1 PPG / 42% / 22% / 79% 4.3 RPG 1.2 APG 1.1 SPG 0.7 BPG. The improvements to the position will be worth an additional 4-5 wins over the course of the year.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green
Kevin Durant took incredible steps forward in his sophomore season, emerging as a top five small forward in the NBA. Durant's improvement offensively across the board was astonishing. So astonishing, in fact, that I believe it's likely his offensive efficiency may go down a little bit next season. Durant shot the ball about as well as is possible for a perimeter player with his skill set. Asking for shooting percentages higher than 47%/42%/83% might be asking for a bit to much at this stage of Durant's development, though it's certainly not an impossibility. During the months of January and February, Durant shot well above 50% from the field, averaging close to 29 PPG during this 25 game stretch. Obviously, the offensive potential here is staggering, but..
..Kevin Durant is not a good defensive player. This is where I believe Durant has the most to offer the Thunder in improvements during the upcoming season. His length and athleticism lends itself well to defense. Tayshaun Prince is a similarly built player (Durant is actually slightly longer than Prince) and is known for his smothering defense across multiple positions. Durant must learn to use his length to be disruptive defensively if the Thunder are going to be successful with him as the franchise. Scott Brooks is a good coach and is known to preach defense. Durant has the potential to be a dominant defender, both on the perimeter or even as a weak side shot blocker. I feel Durant will make some strides as a defender during the year, but the potential is there for greatness and the Thunder could really surprise some teams if Durant devotes himself to the 'other' side of the ball. Other things to watch out for are Durant's turnovers, which were very high last season (though somewhat excusable due to his high usage rate), and his passing. Durant's an astute passer and this is another facet of his game that has yet to be taken advantage of. I think that part of his game is still a few years away.
Thabo Sefolosha and Jeff Green, though primarily SG and PF respectively, will most likely split reserve minutes at the SF position. Kevin Durant will probably play 39-40 MPG during the year, so backups at this position are not very relevant.
My prediction for Kevin Durant is 24.4 PPG / 47% / 40% / 84%. 6.4 RPG. 2.5 APG. 1.1 SPG. 1.1 BPG. I feel that improvements in Kevin Durant's defense, considering the minutes he plays, can lead to 1-2 more wins throughout the season.
Power Forward: Jeff Green, D.J. White, Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka
Another weak position for the Thunder last season, one of the biggest questions going into the 2009-2010 season is whether or not Jeff Green and Kevin Durant can work as a winning forward combination. Jeff Green was drafted as a SF and taking his physical stature and tools into account, that is probably the position he should play in the NBA. At 6'9" and 235 pounds, Jeff Green is slightly below average in build for a PF, though plenty of PF's excel at those measurements. The crux of Jeff Green's stature is his standing reach. At 8'7", Jeff Green's standing reach is 3.5" shorter than the average power forward measured during pre-draft workouts (average is 8'10.5" for power forwards). Jeff Green is actually even a bit below average for a SF. Casual fans may not be familiar with standing reach or its importance, but NBA scouts and managers now routinely cite this measurement amongst themselves rather than listed height. NBA isn't soccer, nobody shoots or contests shots with the top of the head. It's possible Jeff Green will not be able to overcome this obstacle, and will have difficulty guarding NBA big men for as long as he's required to.
Jeff Green did improve some facets of his game last season. He became more efficient from the floor, adding a surprisingly reliable three point shot to his arsenal. Green's perimeter game creates an interesting wrinkle for the Thunder. Assuming they start Sefolosha and Westbrook at the guard positions, the Thunder have a very unconventional offensive setup with two front court players who can shoot the ball from 24 feet and two back court players who can't hit the side of the barn from that distance. The potential for mismatches on the offensive end is great, as rarely does an opponent have two forwards willing and capable to chase their counterparts on the perimeter (where Jeff Green and Kevin Durant like to lurk). Unfortunately, this advantage on offense may not be worth the disadvantage on defense, where Jeff Green struggled to defend his man last year. Green has been reportedly adding mass during the offseason, which will certainly help him with his battles on the interior. There is some potential for Green to develop into a better defender on the interior and overall, however that potential will always be limited by his physical stature.
The Thunder have two intriguing prospects at the PF position in D.J. White and Serge Ibaka. White fought back from jaw cancer last season and even had a couple nice games for the Thunder towards the end of the year. He's got a neat little jumper out to the elbow and seems like a much more bruising, physical player than Jeff Green. White reminds me a lot of Lawence Funderburke for some reason, formerly of the Kings. Someone who has the potential to be a very pesky rotation forward who can score some points in bunches and just be a nuisance defensively.
Serge Ibaka came over from Spain this year to participate in Summer League for the Thunder and has a lot of people very excited over his tools. Ibaka is a 6'10" forward with some jaw dropping athleticism. He won the Slam Dunk Competition in his league in Spain, throwing down a legitimate Shawn Kemp looking foul line jam in the process. Ibaka, like White, has a surprisingly effective elbow jumper that looks very sound mechanically. He has some low post skill, and generally seems to know where to be on offense. On defense he seems to be very raw and his lack of mass for his position really puts him at a disadvantage. I feel that Ibaka will spend much of the year in the D-League, as D.J. White just seems more NBA ready at this point. There is potential here for something nice down the road, though, so don't forget this name.
My prediction for Jeff Green 16.1 PPG 45% / 38% / 77%. 6.6 RPG. 2.1 APG. 0.8 SPG. 0.4 BPG. Much of the Thunder's improvement at this position hinges on whether or not Green can defend his position adequately. I feel he will make some progress, but will still be fundamentally limited by his lack of size (where it counts). OKC's backups at PF were horrible last season, though, and I feel the presence of D.J. White and some improvement from Jeff Green will result in 1 extra win throughout the season.
Center: Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison, Byron Mullens
Center was a horrible position for the Thunder until Sam Presti made what was one of my favorite moves of his. He signed Nenad Krstic to a nifty little contract and the Thunder immediately looked a lot better in the month of January, playing .500 basketball during the period. Krstic, formerly of the Nets, is still young at 25 years old and was a fairly effective center for New Jersey until he suffered some nagging injuries. Krstic is a perimeter oriented player who likes to knock down mid range jumpers. He's a bit underrated on the interior offensively, he's long, tall, and capable of finishing inside when required, but doesn't really seem to like being near the basket on offense. Krstic had a very nice year in 2006-2007 for the Nets before getting hurt, and the Thunder hope that he can return close to that form. If he does, it would be a nice improvement offensively.
Defensively, Krstic is somewhat limited. He's not very quick, and he's not much of a shot blocker. Krstic would be best utilized at center as part of a tag team, with either a shot blocking power forward spending some time at center (think Tyrus Thomas) or another center to split time with that can block shots and get involved off the weak side. The lack of interior presence on the defensive end for the Thunder was a strong theme throughout the year in 2008-2009. Although Krstic does have some potential to return to his previous form, it's unlikely that he is the long term answer at the position.
Nick Collison is a franchise fixture. His ability to play power forward and center is valuable, though he struggles some against much taller opponents. Collison is a heady player, who will score some inside and put a lot of effort on the defensive end. He can be very disruptive, but even so, he is not an optimum solution as a backup NBA center.
Byron Mullens was a worthless pick and will not amount to anything in the NBA.
My prediction for Nenad Krstic 12.1 PPG / 48% / N/A / 76%. 6.1 RPG. 0.9 APG. 1.2 BPG. I feel Krstic will be more effective with a full offseason to prepare for the NBA schedule. The closer he return to his New Jersey form the more wins it's worth. I think his improvement will be worth 1-2 wins during a full season.
Coach: Scott Brooks
Scotty Brooks took over for waste of life P.J. Carlesimo last season after the Thunder started off miserably. Brooks reminds me a lot of Lawrence Frank as a coach, not just because they are both little white guys, but because they both seem to really get their players' attention despite their lack of stature. Despite not having an offseason to implement his ideas, Brooks made some nice changes during the season that were impressive to me. He doesn't seem to bumble around too much with player rotations and wants to give everyone defined roles, which is especially important for young players. He wants to run a fast paced offense, but also seems dedicated to making Russell Westbrook work out in half court sets.
What will really matter next season is how Brooks gets his team devoted to the defensive end. The Thunder have many talented defensive wing players. There is potential on this roster for a very disruptive defensive team, albeit without an interior presence as of yet. Brooks has to ensure that his team plays very solid, fundamental team defense in order to make up for the lack of a bail out shot blocker in the middle. I like Brooks as a coach, and expect that he will get a good effort out of his players and some kind of improvement at the defensive end. That, along with the fact that he has had a full offseason to implement his coaching plans, contributes to 2-3 extra wins in my opinion.
Record Prediction
Adding up my projections, we come to a 11-17 win increase. This means a range of 34-40 wins for the upcoming season. I will split this number down the middle and predict that the Thunder, as currently constructed, will win 37 games next season, a healthy improvement. There is potential for greater success; should Russell Westbrook 'figure it out' and have a Devin Harris type epiphany that could lead to a 40 win season. If James Harden has an O.J. Mayo type Rookie of the Year season, maybe tack on another win or two for that. That is the thing about this Thunder roster, there is a lot of potential.
This will be a 'figure it out' season for the Thunder. Sam Presti will sit back and see what he's got, then after the year use the flexibility he's earned to shape the roster into what he feels will be a successful team going forward. In any case, although they will likely not fight for a playoff berth, the Thunder will be a fun team to watch.
OKC is the team in the division with the most variables. All of the roster additions up to this point are either rookies (Serge Ibaka, James Harden, Byron Mullens) or second year players (D.J. White), so naturally the range of improvement at some positions will be larger than usual. Furthermore, the roster consists of several developing players (Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook) and 2009 midseason acquisitions (Nenad Krstic, Shaun Livingston, Thabo Sefolosha) that figure to improve their games for various reasons. Scott Brooks will have his first full year of coaching duties as well. That said, without further ado, here is my positional analysis.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, Shaun Livingston, Earl Watson, Chucky Atkins
Point guard was a below average position for the Thunder last season. As good an impression Russell Westbrook made with his outstanding athleticism and occasional scoring prowess, he was not an effective floor general. OKC point guards combined to shoot below 40% last season, one of very few teams to accomplish this feat. Russell Westbrook lead the NBA in turnovers, and while Earl Watson was good taking care of the ball, he was abysmal otherwise and is not likely to get much run in his contract year. Shaun Livingston was a great story and managed to appear in some games last season. His days as an explosive, fast breaking point guard are over, though. The Thunder have been playing him mostly off the ball in Summer League so it is possible they are not looking to him to run the offense at all during the regular season.
Obviously, the key element to this position is Russell Westbrook and how much he improves as a point guard. Westbrook played some games over the Summer and had mixed results. Although he scored at will against the modest competition in Orlando, he still struggled to adequately take care of the ball. Westbrook shows tremendous potential as a scoring guard. He can get into the paint at will. However, he has a tendency to dribble out of control and into trouble, either turning the ball over or putting up a low percentage field goal attempt. Much of the Thunder's future success hinges upon whether Westbrook can improve his decision making with the ball and run the offense efficiently. He was one of the least efficient point guards in the NBA last year, boasting a 1.6:1 A:TO ratio and shooting 39.9% from the field. Sam Presti passed up on one of the most lauded natural point guards to enter an NBA draft (Ricky Rubio) this offseason with the expectation that Westbrook will improve this facet of his game. I feel that Westbrook will improve his FG% and shoot it at around 43% next season. Anything less than a 2:1 A:TO ratio for Westbrook next year will be disappointing, and might give Sam Presti pause about whether or not he's the future at the PG spot.
Shaun Livingston's fate is much more difficult to gauge. Although Livingston was once nearly the athlete Russell Westbrook is, he's now had to transform himself into a smart, heady player. Livingston always had talent handling the ball and running an offense; this was obvious since he was drafted by the Clippers. However, he's been out of basketball for a long time, and seems out of sync playing against Summer League compeition. I think Livingston will be given every chance to contribute to the NBA team next season, but expect that it will be a bumpy road for him as he returns to regulary facing NBA competition. The Thunder hope that Livingston turns the corner during the year and contributes but that might be another year away considering how long he's been out.
Chucky Atkins and Earl Watson are both expiring contracts that are likely to be trade ballast. Watson is not long removed from productive seasons as a backup, so his descent into mediocrity is somewhat mystifying. Atkins has only a partially guaranteed contract, which will almost certainly become part of a trade sometime during the season, most likely toward the trade deadline. Assuming Livingston is given his shot, I don't see much production from either player.
My prediction for Russell Westbrook is 17.4 PPG / 43% / 31% / 81%. 5.1 RPG. 6.5 APG. 1.6 SPG 2:1 A:TO. I think OKC's backup point guard position will remain largely ineffective. These improvements from Russell Westbrook are worth 2-3 more wins over the course of the season.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Thabo Sefolosha, Kyle Weaver
For much of the year, OKC had one of the worst SG rotations in the NBA. The acquisition of Thabo Sefolosha remedied the situation somewhat, but there was still a peculiar lack of shooting from this position. Sam Presti and Thunder fans hope that rookie guard James Harden can turn that around. Indeed, the SG position is one area where the Thunder could potentially add many wins over the course of the year even with average performances from Harden, Sefolosha and Weaver.
Thabo Sefolosha is a terrific defender. He is rangy, an excellent rebounder, and can guard three positions without breaking a sweat. The problem is that he cannot shoot. His jump shot is an ugly piece of work and it's probably not likely to improve drastically any time soon. He gets some easy points thanks to his athleticism and hustle but is not a scorer. This is probably why Sam Presti decided to select James Harden number three overall in this year's draft. Harden is an offensive dynamo, touted as a player who can both create and facilitate offense more or less whenever he gets the urge. James Harden has played in Summer League and has shown himself to be an efficient scorer. His 3pt% is over 40% and his FG% is over 50%. Whether or not Harden maintains that kind of efficiency during the real season is anyone's guess, but it's clear that he can score.
This gives OKC a very nice 1-2 punch at the shooting guard position, where there is potential for a nice boost to the win total. Most feel that James Harden will begin the year as the starting SG, but I'm unsure this will be the case. The Thunder possess a lot of outside shooting in the starting lineup (the whole starting front court consists of perimeter players) and the Russell Westbrook / Thabo Sefolosha combination makes for a very tough defensive backcourt. During the year the Thunder were known to start games off well only to fall behind later on when going to their bench. With James Harden playing the role of sixth man during his rookie season, this might be less of a worry. Presti did not start Westbrook at PG immediately last season even though he was terrific in Summer League. I believe the same will hold true for James Harden.
Kyle Weaver is an interesting prospect who mirrors many of Thabo Sefolosha's abilities although he's not really as good as Thabo. Weaver has been attempting to master the art of three point shooting, and has displayed a much more confident stroke from beyond the arc during the Summer. Weaver will find a role as a situational sub if he can make himself into a shooter since his defense is good and he can handle the ball a little. Otherwise, I see most of his minutes dwindling with Sefolosha, Harden, and Livingston in front of him.
My prediction for James Harden is 14.9 PPG / 45% / 37% / 84%. 3.9 RPG. 2.3 APG. 0.9 SPG. If he wins the starting spot early on (or starts beginning the year) expect slightly higher numbers and Rookie of the Year contention.
My prediction for Thabo Sefolosha is 7.1 PPG / 42% / 22% / 79% 4.3 RPG 1.2 APG 1.1 SPG 0.7 BPG. The improvements to the position will be worth an additional 4-5 wins over the course of the year.
Small Forward: Kevin Durant, Thabo Sefolosha, Jeff Green
Kevin Durant took incredible steps forward in his sophomore season, emerging as a top five small forward in the NBA. Durant's improvement offensively across the board was astonishing. So astonishing, in fact, that I believe it's likely his offensive efficiency may go down a little bit next season. Durant shot the ball about as well as is possible for a perimeter player with his skill set. Asking for shooting percentages higher than 47%/42%/83% might be asking for a bit to much at this stage of Durant's development, though it's certainly not an impossibility. During the months of January and February, Durant shot well above 50% from the field, averaging close to 29 PPG during this 25 game stretch. Obviously, the offensive potential here is staggering, but..
..Kevin Durant is not a good defensive player. This is where I believe Durant has the most to offer the Thunder in improvements during the upcoming season. His length and athleticism lends itself well to defense. Tayshaun Prince is a similarly built player (Durant is actually slightly longer than Prince) and is known for his smothering defense across multiple positions. Durant must learn to use his length to be disruptive defensively if the Thunder are going to be successful with him as the franchise. Scott Brooks is a good coach and is known to preach defense. Durant has the potential to be a dominant defender, both on the perimeter or even as a weak side shot blocker. I feel Durant will make some strides as a defender during the year, but the potential is there for greatness and the Thunder could really surprise some teams if Durant devotes himself to the 'other' side of the ball. Other things to watch out for are Durant's turnovers, which were very high last season (though somewhat excusable due to his high usage rate), and his passing. Durant's an astute passer and this is another facet of his game that has yet to be taken advantage of. I think that part of his game is still a few years away.
Thabo Sefolosha and Jeff Green, though primarily SG and PF respectively, will most likely split reserve minutes at the SF position. Kevin Durant will probably play 39-40 MPG during the year, so backups at this position are not very relevant.
My prediction for Kevin Durant is 24.4 PPG / 47% / 40% / 84%. 6.4 RPG. 2.5 APG. 1.1 SPG. 1.1 BPG. I feel that improvements in Kevin Durant's defense, considering the minutes he plays, can lead to 1-2 more wins throughout the season.
Power Forward: Jeff Green, D.J. White, Nick Collison, Serge Ibaka
Another weak position for the Thunder last season, one of the biggest questions going into the 2009-2010 season is whether or not Jeff Green and Kevin Durant can work as a winning forward combination. Jeff Green was drafted as a SF and taking his physical stature and tools into account, that is probably the position he should play in the NBA. At 6'9" and 235 pounds, Jeff Green is slightly below average in build for a PF, though plenty of PF's excel at those measurements. The crux of Jeff Green's stature is his standing reach. At 8'7", Jeff Green's standing reach is 3.5" shorter than the average power forward measured during pre-draft workouts (average is 8'10.5" for power forwards). Jeff Green is actually even a bit below average for a SF. Casual fans may not be familiar with standing reach or its importance, but NBA scouts and managers now routinely cite this measurement amongst themselves rather than listed height. NBA isn't soccer, nobody shoots or contests shots with the top of the head. It's possible Jeff Green will not be able to overcome this obstacle, and will have difficulty guarding NBA big men for as long as he's required to.
Jeff Green did improve some facets of his game last season. He became more efficient from the floor, adding a surprisingly reliable three point shot to his arsenal. Green's perimeter game creates an interesting wrinkle for the Thunder. Assuming they start Sefolosha and Westbrook at the guard positions, the Thunder have a very unconventional offensive setup with two front court players who can shoot the ball from 24 feet and two back court players who can't hit the side of the barn from that distance. The potential for mismatches on the offensive end is great, as rarely does an opponent have two forwards willing and capable to chase their counterparts on the perimeter (where Jeff Green and Kevin Durant like to lurk). Unfortunately, this advantage on offense may not be worth the disadvantage on defense, where Jeff Green struggled to defend his man last year. Green has been reportedly adding mass during the offseason, which will certainly help him with his battles on the interior. There is some potential for Green to develop into a better defender on the interior and overall, however that potential will always be limited by his physical stature.
The Thunder have two intriguing prospects at the PF position in D.J. White and Serge Ibaka. White fought back from jaw cancer last season and even had a couple nice games for the Thunder towards the end of the year. He's got a neat little jumper out to the elbow and seems like a much more bruising, physical player than Jeff Green. White reminds me a lot of Lawence Funderburke for some reason, formerly of the Kings. Someone who has the potential to be a very pesky rotation forward who can score some points in bunches and just be a nuisance defensively.
Serge Ibaka came over from Spain this year to participate in Summer League for the Thunder and has a lot of people very excited over his tools. Ibaka is a 6'10" forward with some jaw dropping athleticism. He won the Slam Dunk Competition in his league in Spain, throwing down a legitimate Shawn Kemp looking foul line jam in the process. Ibaka, like White, has a surprisingly effective elbow jumper that looks very sound mechanically. He has some low post skill, and generally seems to know where to be on offense. On defense he seems to be very raw and his lack of mass for his position really puts him at a disadvantage. I feel that Ibaka will spend much of the year in the D-League, as D.J. White just seems more NBA ready at this point. There is potential here for something nice down the road, though, so don't forget this name.
My prediction for Jeff Green 16.1 PPG 45% / 38% / 77%. 6.6 RPG. 2.1 APG. 0.8 SPG. 0.4 BPG. Much of the Thunder's improvement at this position hinges on whether or not Green can defend his position adequately. I feel he will make some progress, but will still be fundamentally limited by his lack of size (where it counts). OKC's backups at PF were horrible last season, though, and I feel the presence of D.J. White and some improvement from Jeff Green will result in 1 extra win throughout the season.
Center: Nenad Krstic, Nick Collison, Byron Mullens
Center was a horrible position for the Thunder until Sam Presti made what was one of my favorite moves of his. He signed Nenad Krstic to a nifty little contract and the Thunder immediately looked a lot better in the month of January, playing .500 basketball during the period. Krstic, formerly of the Nets, is still young at 25 years old and was a fairly effective center for New Jersey until he suffered some nagging injuries. Krstic is a perimeter oriented player who likes to knock down mid range jumpers. He's a bit underrated on the interior offensively, he's long, tall, and capable of finishing inside when required, but doesn't really seem to like being near the basket on offense. Krstic had a very nice year in 2006-2007 for the Nets before getting hurt, and the Thunder hope that he can return close to that form. If he does, it would be a nice improvement offensively.
Defensively, Krstic is somewhat limited. He's not very quick, and he's not much of a shot blocker. Krstic would be best utilized at center as part of a tag team, with either a shot blocking power forward spending some time at center (think Tyrus Thomas) or another center to split time with that can block shots and get involved off the weak side. The lack of interior presence on the defensive end for the Thunder was a strong theme throughout the year in 2008-2009. Although Krstic does have some potential to return to his previous form, it's unlikely that he is the long term answer at the position.
Nick Collison is a franchise fixture. His ability to play power forward and center is valuable, though he struggles some against much taller opponents. Collison is a heady player, who will score some inside and put a lot of effort on the defensive end. He can be very disruptive, but even so, he is not an optimum solution as a backup NBA center.
Byron Mullens was a worthless pick and will not amount to anything in the NBA.
My prediction for Nenad Krstic 12.1 PPG / 48% / N/A / 76%. 6.1 RPG. 0.9 APG. 1.2 BPG. I feel Krstic will be more effective with a full offseason to prepare for the NBA schedule. The closer he return to his New Jersey form the more wins it's worth. I think his improvement will be worth 1-2 wins during a full season.
Coach: Scott Brooks
Scotty Brooks took over for waste of life P.J. Carlesimo last season after the Thunder started off miserably. Brooks reminds me a lot of Lawrence Frank as a coach, not just because they are both little white guys, but because they both seem to really get their players' attention despite their lack of stature. Despite not having an offseason to implement his ideas, Brooks made some nice changes during the season that were impressive to me. He doesn't seem to bumble around too much with player rotations and wants to give everyone defined roles, which is especially important for young players. He wants to run a fast paced offense, but also seems dedicated to making Russell Westbrook work out in half court sets.
What will really matter next season is how Brooks gets his team devoted to the defensive end. The Thunder have many talented defensive wing players. There is potential on this roster for a very disruptive defensive team, albeit without an interior presence as of yet. Brooks has to ensure that his team plays very solid, fundamental team defense in order to make up for the lack of a bail out shot blocker in the middle. I like Brooks as a coach, and expect that he will get a good effort out of his players and some kind of improvement at the defensive end. That, along with the fact that he has had a full offseason to implement his coaching plans, contributes to 2-3 extra wins in my opinion.
Record Prediction
Adding up my projections, we come to a 11-17 win increase. This means a range of 34-40 wins for the upcoming season. I will split this number down the middle and predict that the Thunder, as currently constructed, will win 37 games next season, a healthy improvement. There is potential for greater success; should Russell Westbrook 'figure it out' and have a Devin Harris type epiphany that could lead to a 40 win season. If James Harden has an O.J. Mayo type Rookie of the Year season, maybe tack on another win or two for that. That is the thing about this Thunder roster, there is a lot of potential.
This will be a 'figure it out' season for the Thunder. Sam Presti will sit back and see what he's got, then after the year use the flexibility he's earned to shape the roster into what he feels will be a successful team going forward. In any case, although they will likely not fight for a playoff berth, the Thunder will be a fun team to watch.
