Analyzing OKC's near future
Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2009 5:22 pm
Over the past two years, Sam Presti has transformed a roster depleted with talent into one of the most intriguing young teams in the league. The only other teams in a comparable situation are Portland, Minnesota and NJ. I can't include Golden State in this discussion because its management is whack, Memphis is beyond consideration after the Z-Bo/Iverson additions, and Philly and Sac-Town are on the fringe. Of the teams locked into rebuilding mode the Thunder has the greatest upside.
Quickly analyzing the competition:
GS, Memphis, Philly and Sac-Town are good, young rebuilding teams but there's definitely some "internal problems" in each of these four organizations to say the least.
New Jersey boasts the best young squad in the East but will continue to endure growing pains because no matter how talented they are (and they are extremely talented), Devin Harris is a score-first point guard and Brooke Lopez is soft (and weird).
Minnesota will also endure growing pains this season because of the newness-factor. New GM David Kahn hired new Head Coach Kurt Rambis who, undoubtedly, will employ a new system with new players. Time, however, is on the TWolves' side and even a year from now they should be nasty.
Portland looks poised for a playoff run this year. Despite the Blazers' youth this is probably the last season we can refer to them as a re-building team. The building is done as management has started to shell-out extensions and free-agent contracts. I think the Blazers will have a great year and win 60 games.
Now on to OKC...
Presti has built this team like a set of lego's - piece by intricate piece. Kevin Durant was the obvious choice in '07 but the same cannot be said for Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. In those times, Presti took some heat for passing on guys like Yi, Love and Rubio but so far trusting his instinct has yielded ballin' results.
Entering his third season, it will be difficult for Green to match the scoring numbers he put-up last season and he won't, but that's OK. See, the goals this year are not individual but collective. Much like a young Shawn Marion, Green will be playing a great deal of minutes as a tweener and should improve his secondary stat-sheet of assists, rebounds and steals. Green's point-man, Russell Westbrook is also coming-off a stat-stuffed season. He's not a typical point guard but his skill-set matches that of the team's best players quite well. His main criticism is his ball handling under pressure but Green and rookie James Harden will surely offset that burden. Harden, to me, resembles a mini Paul Pierce. He's a generalist, does nothing extraordinary but does EVERYTHING well.
Kevin Durant is still the most underrated player in the league even after averaging 25.3/6.5/2.8 last year and he's still 2 weeks from turning 21. He's a lock for the All-Star team in 2010 and hasn't even filled out his body yet. Once this guy adds another 20 pounds in muscle he'll average 30 a game. Durant's potential is legitimately scary. Combined this with the fact that Presti is so committed to Durant that every move he makes is dependent on whether or not it will make Durant better. Presti realizes that the success and failure of OKC lies within KD35 and, therefore, he has the foresight to afford his star player the greatest benefit in any big business - patience.
This is the year that OKC shows some life in the playoff race. I doubt they'll make it unless Boozer goes AWOL, Amare goes blind and Don Nelson benches his starting 5 for the entire season but, sadly and comically, all of these things could happen. Most likely, the Thunder will end the season on a note of elevated improvement with a lottery pick and an estimated $20 million in cap space. I won't speculate on Presti's off-season agenda but let's just say that he has some options.
I must interrogate some discussion so my question is: How many games will OKC win in 2010? Last season the Thunder finished 23-59.
I'll bump that number up to 37-45 this year with more than a handful of overtime appearances.
Quickly analyzing the competition:
GS, Memphis, Philly and Sac-Town are good, young rebuilding teams but there's definitely some "internal problems" in each of these four organizations to say the least.
New Jersey boasts the best young squad in the East but will continue to endure growing pains because no matter how talented they are (and they are extremely talented), Devin Harris is a score-first point guard and Brooke Lopez is soft (and weird).
Minnesota will also endure growing pains this season because of the newness-factor. New GM David Kahn hired new Head Coach Kurt Rambis who, undoubtedly, will employ a new system with new players. Time, however, is on the TWolves' side and even a year from now they should be nasty.
Portland looks poised for a playoff run this year. Despite the Blazers' youth this is probably the last season we can refer to them as a re-building team. The building is done as management has started to shell-out extensions and free-agent contracts. I think the Blazers will have a great year and win 60 games.
Now on to OKC...
Presti has built this team like a set of lego's - piece by intricate piece. Kevin Durant was the obvious choice in '07 but the same cannot be said for Jeff Green, Russell Westbrook and James Harden. In those times, Presti took some heat for passing on guys like Yi, Love and Rubio but so far trusting his instinct has yielded ballin' results.
Entering his third season, it will be difficult for Green to match the scoring numbers he put-up last season and he won't, but that's OK. See, the goals this year are not individual but collective. Much like a young Shawn Marion, Green will be playing a great deal of minutes as a tweener and should improve his secondary stat-sheet of assists, rebounds and steals. Green's point-man, Russell Westbrook is also coming-off a stat-stuffed season. He's not a typical point guard but his skill-set matches that of the team's best players quite well. His main criticism is his ball handling under pressure but Green and rookie James Harden will surely offset that burden. Harden, to me, resembles a mini Paul Pierce. He's a generalist, does nothing extraordinary but does EVERYTHING well.
Kevin Durant is still the most underrated player in the league even after averaging 25.3/6.5/2.8 last year and he's still 2 weeks from turning 21. He's a lock for the All-Star team in 2010 and hasn't even filled out his body yet. Once this guy adds another 20 pounds in muscle he'll average 30 a game. Durant's potential is legitimately scary. Combined this with the fact that Presti is so committed to Durant that every move he makes is dependent on whether or not it will make Durant better. Presti realizes that the success and failure of OKC lies within KD35 and, therefore, he has the foresight to afford his star player the greatest benefit in any big business - patience.
This is the year that OKC shows some life in the playoff race. I doubt they'll make it unless Boozer goes AWOL, Amare goes blind and Don Nelson benches his starting 5 for the entire season but, sadly and comically, all of these things could happen. Most likely, the Thunder will end the season on a note of elevated improvement with a lottery pick and an estimated $20 million in cap space. I won't speculate on Presti's off-season agenda but let's just say that he has some options.
I must interrogate some discussion so my question is: How many games will OKC win in 2010? Last season the Thunder finished 23-59.
I'll bump that number up to 37-45 this year with more than a handful of overtime appearances.
