FFL: Come talk up your last 5 picks!

Post #1 » by **jazzfan1971** » Fri Oct 9, 2009 6:24 pm

I've heard it said that in quality leagues it's the late draft picks that determine who wins, not the early ones.

Taht being said, lets talk about our last 5 picks.

How are they showing so far in pre-season? What kind of stats do you project? What are the odds you'll drop that player before the season ends?

Lets have some discussion.

writersblock · Post #2 » by **writersblock** » Fri Oct 9, 2009 8:42 pm

I don't think I'm one to talk up my last five picks, since I've added and dropped them about 4x already, but for what it's worth:

Delfino: I dropped him the day word came out that he would probably start, and then I was lucky to get him again. All along, I thought he was only 1 of 3 guys who could score in Milwaukee. I think he'll do a modest 8-10 ppg, 1.5 3s, 1.5 steals.

Shaun Livingston: I've been tempted to drop him, but I just can't, and his one game this preseason was actually a little more than I expected. 10 points, 3 assists, 2 blocked shots, 5 for 7 shooting. He's the only true PG on the roster besides Westbrook, and he's bound to get numbers. I think he'll put up some great games through the season (10 points, 7 assists, 6 boards, 2 steals), but on average, he'll do just enough to make him worth a roster spot: 5 ppg, 5 assists, 1+ steals, great %s.

Terrence Williams: He's been touted the most "nba-ready" rookie...for whatever that's worth, but his first preseason game wasn't half bad: 10 points, 7 boards. Forget the high TOs, forget the HORRIBLE FG%. I think he'll be a homeless man's Lamar Odom. 10 points, 6 boards, 3 assists, 1+ steals, with the occasional big game

Ricky Rubio: He's going to be absolutely AMAZING in 2 years...20 ppg, 8 assists, 2 steals playing 40 minutes/game in Spain (and if only his Barca stats counted!)

Darko: I have to admit that I'm weary of Darko. Last year, I believed in Darko and he did nothing, absolutely nothing. Will he excel in D'Antoni's offense? You know, I have my doubts. In fact, I think I'll end up trading him for an old stapler and half-eaten bag of dorritos before the season starts. Frankly, I wish I would have gone for Frye at this spot instead of Darko, but I thought I could get Frye in the 200s. For what it's worth, here's what I hoped Darko would do in NY: 10 points, 10 boards, 3 blocks. Will he get them? Definitely...if you count them as accumulative stats.

Beno: I actually had high hopes when I drafted him, but I forgot that 1) Beno is a career bench cheerleader and 2) he's only been good when given 50 minutes a game.

Add-Drops
Flip Murray: Here's a guy who was a super sixth man in Atlanta who has now found himself playing in Charlotte where 1) only 2 guys can score and 2) One of them isn't Raja Bell anymore. I think he'll overtake Raja for the starting nod, or at least will get a good 25 minutes a game. Good enough for 15 ppg, 1.5 3s, 45% FG, 1+ steals

Jeff Teague: I'm optimistic about Teague. In fact, some might say I'm overly optimistic about Teague, and that's fine. I think he takes Acie Law's place, and even finds himself taking some of Flip Murray's minutes. Sure, Jamaal Crawford is there, but Teague could be the strong PG, while Crawford is more apt as an SG. His numbers won't come until later in the year, but I didn't mind seeing him put up a really nice line in the Hawk's preseason opener. 19 points, 1 steal. Of course Crawford was injured...but then again, it's not like that's unusual. I was thinking he'd be more of a 10 ppg, 5 assist guy, rather than a scorer, but I'll take what I can get.

There...go ahead and knock my predictions down. 8-)

Oh, and yes...I'll be challenging the great Fraan for the most add drops BEFORE the season even starts!

Post #3 » by **jazzfan1971** » Fri Oct 9, 2009 8:47 pm

Danillo Gallanari - The Rooster didn't shine too brightly in his first preseason game. But, I maintain high hopes for a breakout year. I think this kid compares to a young Peja. I'm going to expect 14ppg, 2 three pointers, 4 rebounds, and terrific percentages. Landing in teh top 60.

Luke Ridnour - Ridnour has done well in preseason so far. With Sessions gone Ridnour's minutes should be solid despite having a high draft pick PG on the team. I imagine that Skiles will use Ridnour as the whip to get Jennings to perform as he likes on both ends of the floor. I see low points, fair assists, decent 3s and steals, terrific AST/TO, and nice FT%. I expect him in the 120s.

Ben Wallace - I picked Big Ben to get 6rebounds a block and a steal in 20mpg. So it's been a pleasant surprise to see him in the starting lineup in 2 games of preseason. Word is that Ben feels better than he has in years. We'll see. I'm still sticking to my original predictins for now, but, if he solidifies that starting PF spot, he's got considerable upside. I see him anywhere from 250s to 80s depending on how many minutes he sees. I'll guess around 150.

Amir Johnson - Amir is looking good in Toronto so far. He's got around 23mpg and about 8pts 9boards 1 block. He's got a lot of potential to impress if he can maintain those minutes, HOWEVER, Bosh sat both games, so those minutes are far from guaranteed. I think he's a wildcard, it's gonna depend on his role, but, if he earns a spot in the rotation I think he's top 170.

Kwame Brown - Looking like a fantastic 13th round pick so far. Brown is starting at center and by all accounts looks good there. I am hoping for 8-10-1-1 and a top 130 finish.

hamncheese · Post #4 » by **hamncheese** » Sat Oct 10, 2009 2:57 pm

Yi Jianlian - He's had a mediocre preseason. Still needs to be more assertive and improve his shooting. On the other hand, Nets will give him plenty of opportunity as the starting PF, and he can be multicategory contributer in threes, rebounds, steals, and blocks. Good potential.

Marresse Speights - He's had a good preseason. Last game, he had 16 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes. The question about him is if he can get consistent minutes in the regular season backing Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert. He'll be sharing backup minutes with Jason Smith and Primoz Brezec. I'm hoping for 20 minutes per game from Speights.

C.J. Watson - I may be dropping this guy. I drafted him thinking he'll be traded to Orlando where he would get consistent time as the number two point guard. Instead, he's out hurt, and one of 5 point guards on the Warriors. Apparently, Nelson likes Acie Law who's had a good preseason, so it's possible C.J. falls to the fourth PG slot. Warriors are deep at the guard positions, so unless C.J. gets healthy soon and shows that he'll get some playing time, he's going to get dropped.

Chris Douglas-Roberts - He was picked up in preseason to replace my original pick, Tony Allen. CDR has had a great preseason, helped by the injury to Courtney Lee (who is also on my team). Playing time will be a question with the swing position minutes going to CDR, Lee, Terrence Williams, and Bobby Simmons. At least, Simmons is likely to get hurt. If CDR can get 20 mpg, then he'll be worth the pick up.

Glen Davis - This pick was originally Dejuan Blair, who I dropped for Robin Lopez, who got hurt. I like what Blair is showing in preseason but he get picked up by someone else, so I have Big Baby. He's looked good in preseason, but plays behind Garnett, Rasheed, and Perkins. So maybe 15 mpg at best. He could be dropped.

writersblock · Post #5 » by **writersblock** » Sat Oct 10, 2009 7:39 pm

hamncheese wrote:Yi Jianlian - He's had a mediocre preseason. Still needs to be more assertive and improve his shooting. On the other hand, Nets will give him plenty of opportunity as the starting PF, and he can be multicategory contributer in threes, rebounds, steals, and blocks. Good potential.

Marresse Speights - He's had a good preseason. Last game, he had 16 points and 7 rebounds in 20 minutes. The question about him is if he can get consistent minutes in the regular season backing Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert. He'll be sharing backup minutes with Jason Smith and Primoz Brezec. I'm hoping for 20 minutes per game from Speights.

C.J. Watson - I may be dropping this guy. I drafted him thinking he'll be traded to Orlando where he would get consistent time as the number two point guard. Instead, he's out hurt, and one of 5 point guards on the Warriors. Apparently, Nelson likes Acie Law who's had a good preseason, so it's possible C.J. falls to the fourth PG slot. Warriors are deep at the guard positions, so unless C.J. gets healthy soon and shows that he'll get some playing time, he's going to get dropped.

Chris Douglas-Roberts - He was picked up in preseason to replace my original pick, Tony Allen. CDR has had a great preseason, helped by the injury to Courtney Lee (who is also on my team). Playing time will be a question with the swing position minutes going to CDR, Lee, Terrence Williams, and Bobby Simmons. At least, Simmons is likely to get hurt. If CDR can get 20 mpg, then he'll be worth the pick up.

Glen Davis - This pick was originally Dejuan Blair, who I dropped for Robin Lopez, who got hurt. I like what Blair is showing in preseason but he get picked up by someone else, so I have Big Baby. He's looked good in preseason, but plays behind Garnett, Rasheed, and Perkins. So maybe 15 mpg at best. He could be dropped.

I picked up CDR last year after an awesome preseason...then he fizzled. Here's hoping he pulls it out this year, though I think T Williams will get his minutes.

hamncheese · Post #6 » by **hamncheese** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 1:58 pm

CDR with monster game last night in preseason. Though it was against the Knicks and Harris didn't play. He could end up being a very nice pick up for my team.

As an update on my bottom 5, I did drop CJ for Marcus Thornton, rookie guard for the Hornets, who could steal the starting position from MoPete. He's had a good preseason.

writersblock · Post #7 » by **writersblock** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 4:09 pm

hamncheese wrote:CDR with monster game last night in preseason. Though it was against the Knicks and Harris didn't play. He could end up being a very nice pick up for my team.

As an update on my bottom 5, I did drop CJ for Marcus Thornton, rookie guard for the Hornets, who could steal the starting position from MoPete. He's had a good preseason.

I would like to point out that I actually drafted Thornton in place of Rubio and no one had a clue who he was. I then dropped him and left him on waivers for you. You're welcome. 8-)

...though...I have to say, I highly doubt Byron Scott starts a rookie all year long. Look what he did with young guys oozing with talent like JR Smith

bww78 · Post #8 » by **bww78** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 6:50 pm

writersblock wrote:
hamncheese wrote:CDR with monster game last night in preseason. Though it was against the Knicks and Harris didn't play. He could end up being a very nice pick up for my team.

As an update on my bottom 5, I did drop CJ for Marcus Thornton, rookie guard for the Hornets, who could steal the starting position from MoPete. He's had a good preseason.

I would like to point out that I actually drafted Thornton in place of Rubio and no one had a clue who he was. I then dropped him and left him on waivers for you. You're welcome.

...though...I have to say, I highly doubt Byron Scott starts a rookie all year long. Look what he did with young guys oozing with talent like JR Smith

...and Chris Paul.

writersblock · Post #9 » by **writersblock** » Thu Oct 22, 2009 7:23 pm

OK...young guys who weren't pegged to be the future of the team when they were drafted.

For the record, if Thornton does superbly...I was right (since I drafted him when no one knew who he was)
If he does horribly, I'm right too (since I dropped him).

That's a nice argument position to be in. 8-)

Then again, if he does superbly, then my team loses, so I guess that doesn't matter

Post #10 » by **Young_Star11** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 2:25 am

Batum could be the odd-man out in Portland. Has to show signs of improvement!!

Landry will go okay in Houston.

Watson needs to establish himself as a backup PG pronto!

Rasual Butler looking like a nice pick early on, should see good minutes at the 2/3 for the Clippers.

Budinger could become a rotation guy from the get-go.

Sk1p · Post #11 » by **Sk1p** » Fri Oct 23, 2009 8:52 pm

You guys just wait until Tinsley signs....

...........

writersblock · Post #12 » by **writersblock** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 3:17 am

I don't really have to talk up my last picks do I?

Delfino: 11 points, 6 boards, 3 threes, 50% FG in 15 minutes tonight (he's also slated to start)

T. Williams: 23 points, 5 boards, 8 assists, two 3s

we'll ignore Jeff Teague's 0-15 night :oops:

hamncheese · Post #13 » by **hamncheese** » Sat Oct 24, 2009 7:22 pm

Sk1p wrote:You guys just wait until Tinsley signs....

...........

I hear crickets chirping...

Post #14 » by **Young_Star11** » Sun Nov 8, 2009 6:27 am

Now that we are a couple of weeks into the season:

192 - Carl Landry
Ever since we traded for him, I love this guy. Great touch around the basket, solid from mid-range. He's like a 6'8 Amare. Currently exceeding expectations.

203 - Nicolas Batum (dropped for Chuck Hayes)
Don't know what I was thinking with Batum, but Hayes has been a real stand-out so far. He was clearly the most logical option to replace Yao at center, and with Andersen struggling to just be part of our rotation, things look bright.

209 - Earl Watson
I didn't really like him, and was choosing between him and Rafer. I decided on Watson because he was backing up T.J. Ford, while Rafer was backing up Devin Harris. With T.J. not going too well, this pick is also looking good.

232 - Rasual Butler
Things will be different when Griffin comes into the lineup, but he's already supplanted Al Thornton. He's getting good minutes which helps, though his form smells of a player taken at 232...

243 - Chase Budinger
He's living up to my personal expectations so far. Someone described him as Kapono with more all-round skills and athleticism, and he's only going to play more.

hamncheese · Post #15 » by **hamncheese** » Sun Nov 8, 2009 7:13 am

Revisiting my last 5 picks -

1. Yi - Was playing well, though inconsistent, but he got hurt. Now out for a few weeks. He's been placed on IL for Jonas Jerebko, 2nd round pick currently starting in place of Tayshaun Prince. I don't know anything about him, but he seems to be a defensive stat type - fits my team.

2. Speights - Puts up good numbers for the minutes he plays. Seems like he'll get 15-20 mpg and looks to be a decent pick up. He'd be better if he could get more minutes.

3. George Hill - Tossed C.J. and pcked up Hill. He was getting consistent backup minutes at 15-20 mpg, but will get a boost for a week while Parker is out.

4. CDR - My replacement pickup for Tony Allen was playing very well as a starter but is sidelined with the H1N1. Nets are awful with Lopez the only healthy starter from opening night. Three of the sidelined Nets are on my team (CDR, Lee, and Yi).

5. Etan Thomas - My pick up replacement for Glen Davis who replaced Robin Lopez who replaced Dejuan Blair who I probably should've kept. Thomas gets enough minutes to be serviceable in a league of this size.

bww78 · Post #16 » by **bww78** » Tue Jan 5, 2010 9:44 pm

Ok, now that we're nearing the half-way point for the season, I can address my last 5 picks:

Nenad - Pretty decent pick all things considered. True, he's underperformed, but when you're trying to lock up your 2nd center slot in the 9th round, you could do worse. There was some good talent that went after Nenad in the 9th round, but I took a gamble hoping for improvement, and I'd probably make the same gamble again. I'm not terribly disappointed in Nenad.

Lowry - He's been fantastic as 10th round pick. He has good games and bad, as all reserve players do, but I needed a guard with decent assist and steal numbers, and Lowry has delivered in spades. Were the draft to be rerun today, I think he'd go in the 8th round, which makes this a steal for me.

Alston - He's not setting the world on fire, to be sure, but with 4 apg, 1 spg and a career high in FT%, he's doing a lot more than some other players taken in the 11th round. Again, I needed a guard who could give me assist and steal numbers, and I knew both he and Lowry were risks, but I thought at least one of them would hit. Turns out, they've both been adequate, so it ended up working out for me. Still, I wish I'd taken Will Bynum.

Diogu - He was worth a flier. He played out of his mind in the last 2-3 games of last season, so I thought I'd give him a shot. Turns out he's getting even less PT than last year. No big loss. I dropped him the first week and picked up Casspi (more later).

Jones - 13th round picks are supposed to be used by swinging for the fences. He once had so much potential, and I figured he'd either flame out quickly, giving me a chance to pick up a hot player from the waiver wire, or he'd fit into a new role, now that he's healthy. I dropped him pretty quickly and his slot has rotated through a couple of guys, but I'm satisfied with where I've landed: Jared Jeffries.

Casspi - I'd read that Sac was happy with him when they drafted him, and that all his international experience made him NBA ready, so when WB inexplicably dropped him after 1 or 2 games, I snatched him up, and am I glad I did. Casspi is putting up 13, 5 and 2 with a steal and 2 threes. He's filling up the box scores and he's only played 31 games in his career. Thus far, he's one of, if not the, best waiver wire adds of the season.

Post #17 » by **jazzfan1971** » Wed Jan 6, 2010 7:39 am

I'll review mine as well.

Gallo - Probably the steal of the draft. Top 30 guy.
Ridnour - Very clean stats. Top 100ish.
Ben Wallace - A very nice grab. Top 140.
Amir Johnson - I dropped him. Probably shouldn't have. Top 190.
Kwame Brown - Has he ever failed to fail? Top infinity.

I wish I had some waiver wire guy to brag on, but, I don't.

hamncheese · Post #18 » by **hamncheese** » Wed Jan 6, 2010 1:54 pm

#171 Yi Jianlin - Started off about top 150, got hurt, and in the 6 games back is playing top 50 level. If he keeps it up, a great steal. I expect inconsistency but top 100 now looks right.

#190 Marresse Speights - Started out around top 100, got hurt, and is just getting back. With Dalembert and Brand there, probably top 150 player. If Dalembert is somehow moved, top 100 potential.

#197 CJ Watson - He's playing great, but too bad I dropped him (because of injury and crowded GS backcourt) before the season started. At least I got CDR to replace him. Getting top 120 production (when healthy).

#230 Tony Allen - Another guy I dropped due to injury who's had a good past week because Pierce being out. Picked up George Hill who is servicable late pick up. Plays top 120 when Parker is hurt but top 200 otherwise.

#251 DeJuan Blair - Yet another guy I dropped who is playing top 250 but shows flashes of being higher. Eventually, I ended up with Taj Gibson who benefitted from Tyrus Thomas getting hurt, but still getting playing time and starting though Thomas is back. Top 190.

Post #19 » by **Young_Star11** » Wed Jan 6, 2010 9:12 pm

192 - Carl Landry - still exceeding expectations. Lucky Brian took Bass and I ended with Carl. He's such a warrior - loses multiple teeth one night, wanted to play the next.

203 - Nicolas Batum (dropped for Chuck Hayes) - Chucky went back to his sucky ways, but he can be a good source of cheap steals.

209 - Earl Watson - he's really a scrub, but he's starting in Indiana over TJ Ford as of now. Inconsistent, but for a guy taken in the 200s, you can't really complain.

232 - Rasual Butler - loving this pick. He started slowly, but has been shooting the ball very well of late. Looks like Al Thornton is struggling too.

243 - Chase Budinger - just had a recent injury, but you can't fault Birdinger too much. Recently got all-important guard-eligibility, which kept him on my team. Currently on my IL.

tkunit · Post #20 » by **tkunit** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:47 pm

my team is disgustingly inconsistant