FFL - 2012-13 - Voting on Rule Change - draft order posted

[floppymoose]

Thanks. I won't be able to update the spreadsheet for the next 12 hours. On phone only til then.

[writersblock]

More write-ups!

Sly
overview
Remember when I crowned another team the undisputed champion in steals? Well, that’s what happens when you do teams one at a time. Sly is the undisputed champion in steals. I don’t think Sly has a guy who doesn’t get a steal a game (or at least didn’t last year). Ok, he has Hawes and Bynum, but outside of those two, you can almost count on at least a steal per game. His blocks are also off the hook, and he could easily win that every week. Outside of those 2 dominant cats, he’s fairly competitive in points, 3s, and boards, but won’t stand out enough to be dominant. His assists and FT% are unspectacular too. Still, he’s competitive enough to hang with the best of them though.
X Factor: Hawes. He was my x factor last year, and when he went down, I went down. With Bynum there and Brand gone, the question is where will Hawes’ production be. I think his points and assists could go up, but his boards will go down.
Draft Gem: Jason Kidd. He did his damage in 28 minutes a game last year, and even less time could actually be good for him (as in, less time for him to shoot and miss). He’s going to be feeding a lot of good shooters in whatever limited time he gets, hopefully improving his assists and reducing his opportunities to shoot (seriously, how can a guy who does this for a living shoot THAT bad?)
Outlook: Consolation: someone has to go there, and I worry that Sly may not have the firepower to make it to the top 8

3si
overview
Remember when 3si was Ivinson and he used to draft like 6 centers every year? Now his name is 3si, and he is the undisputed champion in 3 pointers. Advantages in points and FT% follow, but he’s going to break the record in TOs every week and if he gets more than 5-8 blocks a week, it’ll be a miracle. Now, I should temper the enthusiasm here as guys like Calderon, Morrow, and even Kevin Martin will have reduced roles this year. Still, 3si is going to dominate in assists and 3s nearly every week. Points and FTs could be his too. Everything else? I’m not so sure about. I’d recommend he give up some of his 3s and assists to build on his relative competitiveness in boards and maybe bring up his FG%.
X Factor: Al Harrington. Like most of you, I have no idea what to expect in Orlando. Word is Harrington could be moved before the trade deadline as Orlando goes all tank mode, er youth development mode. I can see him signing with a fading contender like San Antonio and getting 15 minutes a game just to chase a ring. Harrington is 3si’s crucial link between guard stats (3s) and big man stats (boards).
Draft Gem: Shane Battier. Here’s a guy that does nothing spectacular, but is a perfect anchor for any team. He’ll be a stat padder for 3si.
Outlook: Conslation, Playoff bubble

Ham
overview
Coming off a stellar season, where he was the undisputed season champion (yep, that’s undisputed used 4 times, er 5 times), I was curious to see how he’d follow it up. Looking across his team, I don’t see any clear dominant categories, but what I do see is that he’s competitive in nearly every single category, with no real gaps, outside of maybe assists (but even there, he’ll do well enough to compete). The question is the future of some guys who I think will see a decline this year: Dunleavy, Green, Pachulia, and Blatche. But still, these guys aren’t his bread and butter, so in the long run, it may not matter. Sure, it may cost him a category every other week or so, but not enough to push him out of the playoff picture all together. I think he could find himself battling it out for the 8th or 7th spots.
X Factor: Dunleavy. I personally think his role will be reduced this year, but if he outperforms my expectations, Ham could easily be in the playoffs.
Draft Gem: I don’t really see one, just a bunch of somewhat unspectacular picks who should do as well as the spot where he picked them.
Outlook: Consolation, Playoff Bubble, only because there may be too much parity in the league with several of his categories

[writersblock]

And...we're done.

Woody
overview
Just to start off, I have to say, I really do like Woody’s nucleus. He has some great players and some good stat coordination. My problem is that he is banking too much on the upper 200 picks to help him win out. He looks like one of my teams from a few seasons ago, and trust me, that never works out. To make matters worse, he has to wait for Rubio until at least December, and will have to claw his way up the standings between January and March. I just don’t see it happening. To his credit, he should win blocks every single week. Besides that, I just don’t see enough fire power. Trading up for Wade probably did it to him. If he finds even 2 gems in his mid 200s, he could easily be a consolation playoff team, if not eek his way into the playoffs.
X factor Picks 257, 259, 262, 264, 275. Honorary Mention: The waiver wire.
Draft Gem Ben Gordon. At 177, that’s a stellar pick. Especially for a guy who could get starter minutes in Charlotte
Outlook: Bottom of the pack…sorry, but I’ll be keeping you company there anyway

Skip
Overview
When I see Skip’s team, I think of the words “mild-mannered” and “average joe”. Not because his team is bad, but because outside of Westbrook, he has no one that’s all that spectacular, just a bunch of middle-round guys who’ll do what you expect them to do, nothing less, nothing more. Will it be enough? I’m not sure. He’s strong in 3s and FG%, an odd combination. But he’s middle of the pack in just about everything else, and that’s assuming that guys like Chalmers, Jordan, Budinger, Booker, and Novak do as well as they did last year. I don’t think they will. In the end, I see Skip wading in the shallow end (around 12-14) most of the season, unless his x factor pays off.
x factor: Beasely. I nearly took Beasely several times, because he should shine in Phoenix. Of course, he was supposed to shine in Minnesota and Miami. I read up on why: He plays MUCH better at the 4 than the 3. Problem: He’ll probably play the 3 in Phoenix. Yes, it’s going to be dark, sad days for the Suns this year. That makes me happy because now my gloating Bro-In-Law who’s a die hard Suns fan will have nothing to say all season….but I digress. I don’t think Beasely will work out. If he does, Skip may bounce a playoff team out of the picture.
Draft Gem: [b] Z-bo. Last year he was going in the 50s, I recall. This year? His paltry showing dropped his stock, but he could play top 50 all year.
outlook: Consolation

The Man
[b]overview
I think it would be an interesting experiment to see just how valuable the 1st overall pick is every year. You may have the top guy, but that 40 pick wait until you pick again can be decimating. Either way, theMan’s team can shoot. In fact, he should name his team the Shrimp Shack Shooters (no, don’t ask me where I come up with this stupidity. I once used that name though). Back to the point. His team is primed to win in points, 3s, and FT%. Everything else? No idea. He could lose 3-6 every single week, that is unless some of his late pick ups like Vucevic, Montejunas, Harris, and Drummond pan out. If they do, he’ll be right in the thick of things. Having been a team that relied on the likes of Vucevic, I’ll go on record as saying, it’s not going to be pretty, and I don’t think he’ll be able to pull out a playoff visit this year. Still, he’s got Durant, and it’s fun to watch him rack up the stats.
X Factor Vucevic: If he starts, he’s going to put up some solid stats.
Draft Gem DJ Augustin. I don’t care how bad he did last year, Augustin will surely out play being draft at 200.
outlook: Consolation

WB
overview
Pretty plain and simple. My team sucks. I know when we do write-ups, the author usually trashes his own team to take the target off his back. Well, I wish I could say that’s what I was doing. I went BPA the whole draft and then ended up having to scramble to grab enough centers to fill my roster out. I gave an entirely TOO favorable deal to Jazz and gave up my real star, Marcus Thornton, in the process. Of course, he was frustrating for me last season since he’d miss 3 games at a time with little to no reason (sidenote to Jazz: My Thornton voodoo doll is all ready for the pinning this year! 8) ). Frankly, I think I was on my way to building another contender until about pick 136 when I caught the rookie influenza. Instead of grabbing the guy I should have (Biyombo), I took Waiters, then I went with Valanciunas, and the rest was all downhill from there. I think Courtney Lee and Ayon were good grabs along the way, but my team is relying way too much on young and unproven guys. In the end, this will be the year to forget for me, which is sad because I’ve put WAY too much time into this season already and it hasn’t even started yet.
X Factor Pick a guy. Really, any guy. Every single guy has to pull out a phenomenal season for me to make it this year.
Draft Gem: Brooks. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he’ll come back this year and show why he was the starter in Houston, and make everyone forget about him losing the back-up job in Phoenix to a guy who I don’t think is even in the league anymore. Sure, Isaiah Thomas is going to be good this year, but I can’t help but think Brooks will weasel his way in there and prove to be a top 150 player again.
Outlook: Bottom of the heap. The only two guys I have in the stink-it-up zone are me and Woody because it’ll take injuries (to other teams) and some real waiver-wire magic to dig us out.

[writersblock]

And with that, my write-ups are done.

Here are a few predictions for you

1. League Champion: Stick over Curtis
2. Consolation Champ: Sly over Jazz
3. Cellar Dweller: Woody and I will take turns.

Finally, I know I labeled like 10-12 guys as playoff teams, but that's up for someone else to sort out. There's a lot of parity this year, without more than 1 guy (stick) who I think is clearly better than everyone else with Rose, and two or 3 guys who will really stink it up (Me and Woody, maybe TK too).

[theman]

And...we're done.


The Man
overview
I think it would be an interesting experiment to see just how valuable the 1st overall pick is every year. You may have the top guy, but that 40 pick wait until you pick again can be decimating. Either way, theMan’s team can shoot. In fact, he should name his team the Shrimp Shack Shooters (no, don’t ask me where I come up with this stupidity. I once used that name though). Back to the point. His team is primed to win in points, 3s, and FT%. Everything else? No idea. He could lose 3-6 every single week, that is unless some of his late pick ups like Vucevic, Montejunas, Harris, and Drummond pan out. If they do, he’ll be right in the thick of things. Having been a team that relied on the likes of Vucevic, I’ll go on record as saying, it’s not going to be pretty, and I don’t think he’ll be able to pull out a playoff visit this year. Still, he’s got Durant, and it’s fun to watch him rack up the stats.
X Factor Vucevic: If he starts, he’s going to put up some solid stats.
Draft Gem DJ Augustin. I don’t care how bad he did last year, Augustin will surely out play being draft at 200.
outlook: Consolation

I think I would have preferred picking #20 as opposed to #1. The way I see it is after #1, you have 40+41 vs. 20+21; 80+81 vs. 60+61. It sort of seemed like I was always picking last. I must admit though. I did like having back to back picks. Although maybe I would have been better off if I targeted one guy at a time instead of two.

I started out, best player available. They always seemed to be wing men. The guys I am most worried about are Vucevic and Thomas. Thomas put up great numbers at the end of last season but was it a flash in the pan. I guess Bradley falls in the same category.

Following my last place finish last season I had a couple strategies for this draft. I made a ton of trades during last season's draft so planned on making none this year. I also tried to get sneaking picking a guy in Japan and stashing him on the IL. I thought about stashing Rose but he went long before I planned on taking him. Injuries really hurt my team last season, so I tried to grab younger players who will hopefully play all season. I also tried to avoid players who are injured going into the season. Of course, I have two exceptions, KG and Bradley. Finally, I tried to avoid players who's situation change dramatically, i.e. players who switched teams or whose team brought in someone new at the same position.

I remember the first time I did fantasy thinking "I could win an NBA title with this team", then I realize with the talent of the entire NBA concentrated on 12 teams, most teams could. Here the talent is divided amongst 20 teams and there is no way my team could win an NBA championship. But I am not sure any of the teams could. I think that means we have a better distribution of talent than does the NBA.

[jazzfan1971]

Ok, I've got 45 minutes, maybe I can bust out some writeups. First a disclaimer: I dont' use stats. I don't do any in depth analysis. I just look at the roster and come up with a gut reaction. And as inaccurate at that reaction is, it's probably even worse because it's more of a roto than H2H reaction. In the past my predictions have been wildly inaccurate. You could do just as good of a job having a monkey throw darts at the names as I do with my predictions. Still everyone loves to be rated, even if it's this poorly.

Floppy: Only pick I liked much was MKG. I don't see much upside on the team, not much focus, and with 3 picks left to go, there will be a lot of trash on the roster. Compound that with losing Frye and Floppy will most likely be a bottom dweller.

BWW: I liked the Lawson, Jennings, and Green picks. BWW is done drafting and looks to have a very deep and talented roster. Barring injury I think he's going to make the playoffs. I'm just not sure if he'll have the talent or upside to make any noise once he's there. But, I think his depth carries him to the post season.

WB: Honestly I liked most of WB's picks. I should because a couple of them are mine. Like I said before, WB has really been paying attention. I see a contenting team there with the talent and upside to compete for a title. Biggest worry is Millsap by my mind, shoudl be be demoted to the bench or traded (decent odds for both IMHO) to an unfavorable situation WB will suddenly have a very bottom heavy team, with little star power.

Fraan: Fraan has Lebron. Did I mention Fraan has Lebron? Everyone else is Meh, other than Lilard who is a quesiton mark. However, if your name isn't Fraan then you are not the hardest working GM in here. Fraan will spend about 8 hours each week writing offers, planning his streaming, reading and researching, and generally outworking his competition. I don't know if it'll be enough this year or not. I see him as an also ran for the playoffs.

JFrost: Here is another GM that looks to be paying attention. I like JFrost's team. It'll be sloppy, but, should be good enough to just outproduce most other teams. If he stays injury free (a big if), I see him making the playoffs. I think this may be JFrost's best effort yet.

Hopper: I've tried to build around Dirk several times. Never has worked out for me. And it looks like Hopper has a lot of folks who I consider to be trending down. I think he'll be mid table, not threatening for a playoff spot.

Gocke: Laser focus. Gokce will be doubling the score of his opponents in rebounds and blocks, handily winning in FG%, and up there with most teams in steals. I just don't know where his 5th win is going to come from. Not assists, not FT%, not 3s, not Points, not turnovers. I see a lot of 4-5 losses for Gocke, but, he can take consolation in getting 2x as many blocks and rebounds as his opponent in those losses. Gocke is by my estimation the top trader in here and one of the top strategists. So, I assume there is a plan, and that plan involves fleecing folks in trades.

TK: Ugg. Did TK make some bad trades or something? Not much talent at the top and a boat load of trash on this squad. Sorry, TK, I'm seeing you as a bottom dweller. You'll need a lot of injuries to folks in the depth chart in front of your guys to have any shot at all. Good luck with that.

Cy: Looks like Cy just went BPA up and down the list to me. Maybe he's thinking you always take the BPA then balance your roster out later. Well, not in this league because once the draft is over and the season starts almost zero trades ever happen. Don't know why exactly, but, this is NOT a trading friendly league. Folks fall in love with their players, have selected players to fit certain strategies, or whatever. BPA in here rarely works. I see Cy as a mid table team, would fare better in roto IMHO.

Stick: Stick did a nice job drafting and didn't screw things up with any bad trades. I don't think I've ever liked a team Stick put together before, but, this one looks solid. Looks like Stick is going to be strong in 6 cats. Not easy to do. Should make the playoffs. Will contend for a title if Rose returns this season.

Breakdown: Superb job of drafting in my opinion. Took upside when it was time, took value when it was time, rarely made a mistake. I don't care for the Richard Hamilton pick much, but, that's the exception. Maybe he should have just taken a timberwolf instead? Yet another playoff team in my mind.

Sly: Craig is counting on a lot of old and injury prone guys. It's possible it pays off, but, I think the wheels are going to fall off at some point. I'm guessing an also ran for hte playoffs. Just not enough depth to withstand any hardship.

Jazzfan: As always, my team is the best and brightest, no flaws, and like every year will win a title. (I'm like 0-8 or something... sheesh) But, seriously, this year I changed things up. No longer looking for clean stats based around a big man core, instead looking to win with a 5cat strategy. We'll see if it pays off. I will face adversity having injury prone players and rookies, but, I believe I will have sufficient depth to make the playoffs where I will probably be a low seed, but, will have grown stronger as teh year has progressed.

Sabonis: Sab's team is strong, I just dno't like his players. CAn I mark him down for that? Hell yeah I can, this isn't anything but subjective anyway. Honeslty, I didn't think Sabs made the most of his picks, he took a lot of risks that I felt were poor in the risk/reward area. A lot of upside though if they pan out. But, I think the odds are against him. I think he'll either be mid table or solidly in the playoffs depending on how his risks pan out. I'm saying 80% chance he's mid table though.

3si: 3si looks like he's got a nice 5man cat going there. Plan the work, and work the plan, that's 3si's motto. I'm not in love with his team, especially the fact that he's still looking for 3 more bodies. But, you can see him working. If Nash has a resurgence playing with all that talent around him 3si will compete for a title. If Nash just looks another year older, I just don't think he'll have the juice to make the playoffs. every year I think thi is the Year that Nash slows down, gets injured. Every year Nash is like a robot and proves me wrong. So, yeah, I'm gonna say his season hinges on that question. I'll say 75% chance 3si is an also ran team. Just barely missing out on the post season.


more to come..

[writersblock]

WB: Honestly I liked most of WB's picks. I should because a couple of them are mine. Like I said before, WB has really been paying attention. I see a contenting team there with the talent and upside to compete for a title. Biggest worry is Millsap by my mind, shoudl be be demoted to the bench or traded (decent odds for both IMHO) to an unfavorable situation WB will suddenly have a very bottom heavy team, with little star power.

Not being a Jazz Fan, I honestly don't know the Millsap situation. I only took him because he's so dominant in steals, and so efficient everywhere else. In fact, he was the only healthy guy on BWW's squad last year. (Ok, that's an overstatement, but still). I figured that they wouldn't just go and trade one of their best guys so Derek (I was a bust in NJ) Favors could take over. I guess we'll see how it goes.

[jazzfan1971]

Ham: I like the job Ham did. A lot of his players were guys I wanted to draft myself. I'm not sure I see 5 cats there or not, but, I think he's going to win a lot of games. Not sure if I see an also ran or playoff squad, I'll put him on the bubble, maybe hte last playoff squad. Maybe 3si beats him out. I don't have an ordered list so I really don't have any idea how many playoff teams I'm predicting. Like his drafting though.

Woody: um. Woody's team is so top heavy it makes Chelsea Charms look flat chested. Boom-ching! I don't see any way in hell a team sporting 6 players drafted in the bottom 246 can compete. Sometimes you can be too top heavy. Sorry Chelsea, but it's true, those things look like dented pontoons more than boobs. Oh, and the same is true for you Woody. About being top heavy, not that your boobs look like dented pontoons. (That's besides the point)

Sk1p: Sk1p swung for the fences. Every pick. You gotta like that. I think he'll have some wiffs in there, but, the home runs will more than make up for it. If he can find a gem or two on the waiver wire to offset the wiffs, he'll be competing for a title. If he can't I still think he can make the playoffs. Go big or go home, that's Sk1p's motto this year.

The man: Another team I like. Good power at the top, some nice picks in the middle, some seemingly wise risks at the bottom. A well run team by my eye and should be in contention for a playoff slot. (god, I hope I don't have 12 playoff teams when this is all done.)

And Lastly

Insfo: Oh oh, yet another playoff team. Starting to worry now. Love Insfo's team. Got power, depth, and upside. Everythign it takes to win. If he's also got a plan to win 5 cats I think he's a definite contender. I'd guess he's got a top 4 team there.

[jazzfan1971]

Well, looks like i have 9 teams making the playoffs. Not bad I guess just doing them one at a time.

[Curtis Lemansky]

Wes, I have John Wall (8 apg), Vasquez (7 apg as a starter and he will start this season), Mo Williams (starting at Utah, at worst 5.5 - 6 apg) and Sessions (who can get 4 apg at worst even if he is coming off the bench). I think my team is well above average in that regard.

By the way when can I make my pick?

[stick]

And with that, my write-ups are done.

Here are a few predictions for you

1. League Champion: Stick over Curtis
2. Consolation Champ: Sly over Jazz
3. Cellar Dweller: Woody and I will take turns.

Finally, I know I labeled like 10-12 guys as playoff teams, but that's up for someone else to sort out. There's a lot of parity this year, without more than 1 guy (stick) who I think is clearly better than everyone else with Rose, and two or 3 guys who will really stink it up (Me and Woody, maybe TK too).

Preseason praise. Kiss of death?

[jazzfan1971]

Wes, I have John Wall (8 apg), Vasquez (7 apg as a starter and he will start this season), Mo Williams (starting at Utah, at worst 5.5 - 6 apg) and Sessions (who can get 4 apg at worst even if he is coming off the bench). I think my team is well above average in that regard.

By the way when can I make my pick?

I guess so, you have more faith in Vasquez than I do though.

[3Si]

I think both WB's and Jazz's analysis are spot on. I'm strong in small cats (ok with STLS), weak in big cats (ok with RBS). If both of you ranked me in the middle of the pack, this must be my year!

[writersblock]

And with that, my write-ups are done.

Here are a few predictions for you

1. League Champion: Stick over Curtis
2. Consolation Champ: Sly over Jazz
3. Cellar Dweller: Woody and I will take turns.

Finally, I know I labeled like 10-12 guys as playoff teams, but that's up for someone else to sort out. There's a lot of parity this year, without more than 1 guy (stick) who I think is clearly better than everyone else with Rose, and two or 3 guys who will really stink it up (Me and Woody, maybe TK too).

Preseason praise. Kiss of death?

I hope not. I'm betting on Rose in the other league drafting on this board right now.

[stick]

Im pretty confident Ill see some games from Rose

[hamncheese]

I like both Wes and Brian's assessments of my team. I think I drafted relatively conservative, going for more or less efficient players. Not much emphasis on assists as my draft position made it hard for me to justify any top PGs. I think a key player is going to be Mayo. He's being talked up quite a bit by Dallas and could make a big leap. Put his minutes around 35 mpg, and he could produce top 60 value or better. I feel good about most everyone I drafted to return near or better their draft position except Leonard and Blatche. Leonard was just a total stab and probably took him too early and Blatche, I still don't know what I was thinking but he's only the 12th man.

[Curtis Lemansky]

Sly's clock started ticking as soon as Woody made his pick (since Sk1p was skipped), correct? So I should be able to make my pick now. Can someone confirm this?

[Cyrus]

Does that mean I can pick?

[Curtis Lemansky]

I made pick 248. Your pick is after my 251 so you need to wait for floppy's 2 picks plus my next pick.

[floppymoose]

ok, Being down a top100 player, who was a good fit for my team, and at a position of scarcity.... I now have to throw caution to the wind. There were a couple of established nba players I was going to draft here and have a pretty good chance that one of them would end up being about #150, and the other I could drop. Now I gotta hope for a miracle and go for someone who could be top100 if everything broke their way. So.... Mills & Butler it is.