DCasey91 wrote:Doctor MJ- It’s for the difficulty runs and wins on who they versed all up not their individual ELO rating. Peer comp
2006 Peak season Federer is not anyway shape or form comparable to 2015 and 2016 Djokovic. Nadal’s 2010 also is very much in line.
Why aren't you giving me links with data? You're the one who brought up ELO and gave a number (300) for the edge of Djokovic/Nadal over Federer. I responded by giving a link to the site that I know actually calculates this data and it contradicted what you said.
Now, I wasn't assuming that that was the only source of data. For all I know there's another site with slightly different techniques that somehow resulted in a pretty major discrepancy with my source after all. At this point though, it reads like you were just going from memory and your memory was wrong.
DCasey91 wrote:Age
Djokovic 21
And Federer 21
Djokovic wins out in slams, win %, titles. Better younger, tougher road in his prime, and obv a sustainable longevity. Same deal with Nadal. They all have Pre Prime, Peak, Post Prime, Longevity of extremely high peaks (Big 3 for a reason).
Federer still has as many slams as anyone and has more deep accomplishment in the majors than Djokovic or Nadal.
It's understandable to side with Djokovic if you weight things a bit differently, but based on raw cumulative Grand Slam data, Federer remains the GOAT, which means there's clearly still an argument for Federer as GOAT. All that feels likely to change soon, but it hasn't yet.
DCasey91 wrote:At their Peak level Djokovic obviously had harder comp. Same with Nadal.
I don't see anything obvious here. I see ELO estimations that give Djokovic & Nadal slight edges over Federer, but that's it.
To emphasize again: I also rank Djokovic's peak higher than Federer's, but Nadal's I don't. All are close, because each player has the edge based on different conditions. Tell me the surface (and condition) and I'll tell you who the favorite is peak vs peak. Where Djokovic has the edge over both is that I'd take him on 2 of the 3 major surfaces over the other two, and then I'd take Federer on 2 of the 3 over Nadal.
DCasey91 wrote:Overall Djokovic is the top dog on all surfaces especially in Finals play.
I understand your thoughts here and I'm not saying it's wrong, but it's not so clear to me.
First, through 2013 overall, Federer has the edge both in overall and in the majors, and in 2013, Federer is 32 years old, which makes him 7 years older than McEnroe & Borg were when they stopped.
As far as finals go specifically, I see the stats you showed earlier that say that Djokovic apparently overperformed while Federer apparently underperformed, but the question is "Why?" Part of the explanation is that these guys were playing most of their matches at a time when Djokovic was closer to classical prime, and that's the sort of thing that needs to be normalized for.
Where's the kernel of truth? Well 2 things actually:
1. Djokovic (and Nadal as well) clearly endure the 5th set better than Federer. Nadal providing the model against Federer of essentially just trying to hang in there and wear Federer down, and Djokovic was able to do it too. Obviously physical endurance is just an attribute and I'd give Nadal & Djokovic the edge there. I'd also suggest that Federer was possibly more vulnerable to this because his advantage over Nadal & Djokovic when fresh was that he had better shot accuracy, and this may be an advantage that essentially went away at the end of a long match.
2. The more damning thing about Federer is he was less immune to the pressure of big moments. Choking, in other words. We shouldn't go too far on this because if Federer was actually a horrible choker he'd never have made it as a pro at all, but in comparison to Nadal generally and later Djokovic, he was less rock solid.
Though I'll say on the other hand: Federer was mentally stronger than Nadal & Djokovic at bringing his best every tournament - Federer's the strongest in men's history on this front, and Chris Evert's the strongest woman. I bring this up not to counter the above weaknesses, but just because it's relevant, and those who focus only on head-to-heads underrate these players.
DCasey91 wrote:You probably know ratings can’t be argued against.
Note sure what you mean by this. In the end, my rankings are informed by various ratings, but the final call is always holistic based on assessment of how players actually played.
DCasey91 wrote:You can make a case say they all started at the same time and finished at the same time. But then Djokovic has the distinct edge on all surfaces hence the all roundedness of his court wins is undeniable.
I mean, in addition to Federer winning more Wimbledons, he had 12 finals appearance to Djokovic's 7. That's really not close. You can argue Djokovic had the better peak, but Djokovic had plenty of time to accomplish more on Wimbledon if he were indeed year-to-year the greatest grass court player in history.
DCasey91 wrote:Objectively Peak Federer should have the edge over a very young Nadal but as with history Nadal was a GOAT level player on clay as a teenager. Let’s not forget other multiple important matches on surfaces outside of clay too which is a big factor to be included and not to be remissed. He did go to 5 as a teenager in the Masters and not on his favorite surface against Peak Fed once again.
Personally if you ran it from the beginning it would be Nadal first then Djokovic on second half of who would be the GOAT. Federer no doubt would have big success duh but the evidence favors the other two more.
Remember Federer did have issues as a youngster and was the oldest to breakthrough in his maiden Slam win. A 17 yr old Nadal beat World Number 1 Federer in straight sets and one of six players that year.
In tennis circles and outside say this forum Peak Fed happened in a weaker era of tennis outside of a pre prime aged Nadal it’s not very arguable at all.
So, I'll respond like this:
Toni Nadal, Rafa's coach and mentor, told Rafa early on "Federer is a better player than you, but you can beat him". What he meant by this is that Federer was a virtuoso who could hit every type of shot with more accuracy than Nadal...but as long as Rafa could keep getting the ball back and keep giving that insane topspin directed at Federer's one-handed backhand, the matchup would skew more to Nadal than you'd expect simply based on shot-making skill.
This of course was the story of their rivalry for many years...but it didn't last forever. In their matches in the past 7 years, Federer has won 6 of 7, including the 5-set Aussie Final in 2017, and every single match that wasn't on clay.
It was clear what happened. Once Federer literally had to change his game generally, he came back with a more modern racket and a more aggressive approach, and from that point on, when he was healthy, he owned the matchup except on Nadal's beloved clay.
All this to say, there's honestly no reason to think Federer couldn't have been doing this years earlier. The question was always whether Federer could fine the right counter to Nadal to allow his superior tennis-specific skill to win out, and eventually he did.
I'm not erasing the past here. Because Federer delayed so long he only has 20 majors and that's absolutely going to hold him back in people's estimation from here until the end of tennis. But so long as Federer has the edge in actual deep accomplishment in the majors, that along with the fact that Federer was more of a virtuoso, less surface dependent, and proved by the end that he could indeed figure Nadal out doesn't really leave room for me to place Nadal above him on my GOAT list.
And as said before, after Federer came and figured Nadal out, he wasn't able to do the same with Djokovic. And while I'll insist we consider Federer's age in that dynamic, the fact remains I have more confidence in Djokovic than in Federer. That extra length and flexibility he had, along with the endurance he developed, is just too much for me to side against when comparing the two based on their general bests.