Which player will step up this year?

[raptor21_85]

Who is your candidate, maybe last year was Del Potro and on the women side was Jankovic or Safina.
and btw, who do you think will regress? maybe Nalbandian? maybe Ivanovic?

thoughts

[Marmoset]

I'm going to pick Ernests Gulbis of Latvia. I saw a couple matches of his late last year and he reminded me a lot of Novak Djokovic. Not necessarily in terms of his game, but just by watching him you could see that he had the talent to go very far. Plus, this guy (Gulbis) seems to have the most ridiculous luck in drawing high seeds early in tournaments - eventually he's going to catch some breaks and go deep into tournaments.

[Holmes]

Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka. Going to be hearing a lot about them this year.

I predict Kuznetsova will regress. It's not that her skills have regressed but just everybody around her has gotten better much better. Safina and Dementieva are surging. Ivanovic and Serena own her head to head. Jankovic beat everybody last year. Rising women Radwanska and Wozniacki have beaten her before. She had a down year in 2008 and I doubt she can reclaim the number 2 spot she had in 2007.

[raptor21_85]

Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka. Going to be hearing a lot about them this year.

I predict Kuznetsova will regress. It's not that her skills have regressed but just everybody around her has gotten better much better. Safina and Dementieva are surging. Ivanovic and Serena own her head to head. Jankovic beat everybody last year. Rising women Radwanska and Wozniacki have beaten her before. She had a down year in 2008 and I doubt she can reclaim the number 2 spot she had in 2007.

Caroline Wozniacki. Actually the one who has more wins than Safina. Caroline Wozniacki has a bright future. A latin ESPN comentator said she still has to exercise her legs, velocity.

[Doctor MJ]

Caroline Wozniacki and Victoria Azarenka. Going to be hearing a lot about them this year.

I predict Kuznetsova will regress. It's not that her skills have regressed but just everybody around her has gotten better much better. Safina and Dementieva are surging. Ivanovic and Serena own her head to head. Jankovic beat everybody last year. Rising women Radwanska and Wozniacki have beaten her before. She had a down year in 2008 and I doubt she can reclaim the number 2 spot she had in 2007.

Caroline Wozniacki. Actually the one who has more wins than Safina. Caroline Wozniacki has a bright future. A latin ESPN comentator said she still has to exercise her legs, velocity.

Eh, Woz was his pick for *this* year, not next. And I have to say, with her and Azarenka, he nailed it.

[Marmoset]

Yikes, you had to bump my Gulbis prediction. The guy is currently ranked number 101! Randomly picking someone from the top 100 would probably have given me a better chance.

At least I wasn't alone with that prediction.

[8pLEBRON]

2010 the mens tour will be all Nadal (he said the schedule will be a lot different next year to prevent tendinitis near slams), has legit shot at the Calendar Year Grand Slam, while the womens will be all Clijsters and Henin with a bit of Williams thrown in.

[Marmoset]

2010 the mens tour will be all Nadal (he said the schedule will be a lot different next year to prevent tendinitis near slams), has legit shot at the Calendar Year Grand Slam, while the womens will be all Clijsters and Henin with a bit of Williams thrown in.

Why would you say that Nadal has a legitimate shot at the calendar slam when he has given little if any indication that he can win the U.S. Open? Obviously a healthy Nadal will be a contender at most events, but that prediction seems a little excessive. Just curious about your reasoning. Plus, del Potro has raised his game and Cilic is coming on (Cilic is my pick to bust out next year).

Hard to argue with your women's prediction, although I think Sharapova will be back near the top.

[Doctor MJ]

Why would you say that Nadal has a legitimate shot at the calendar slam when he has given little if any indication that he can win the U.S. Open? Obviously a healthy Nadal will be a contender at most events, but that prediction seems a little excessive. Just curious about your reasoning. Plus, del Potro has raised his game and Cilic is coming on (Cilic is my pick to bust out next year).

Hard to argue with your women's prediction, although I think Sharapova will be back near the top.

I have a very tough time buying that a man who won the Australian and the Olympics on hard court is somehow incapable of winning the US. He and Federer are both threats for the Calendar slam, Nadal being the greater one at this point. I think though that neither will ever pull it off.

[8pLEBRON]

Nadal actually won the Olympic gold (beat Gonzo in Final in 3 straight sets, and earlier beat Djokovic in Semi) on a hardcourt that was faster than Cincy and faster than NY, and he said he was exhausted when he arrived at the Olympics and that only the Olympic Village gave him inspiration to try. You can substitute the calendar year grand slam as the inspiration in 2010. When you arrive at New York with 3 slams already won in the year, you don't get more inspired than that.

I don't think Del Potro is the threat people think he is, not the new number one anyway. I saw Nadal play Del Potro at Montreal just before the US Open, and Nadal led 5-2 in the 1st set tie-breaker (and that was his 1st event back from tendinitis). I think if Nadal didn't have the stomach strain at the US Open it'd have been a different story than the 6-2 6-2 6-2 clobbering Del Potro gave him. Nadal later said his pain was so bad he couldn't serve out-wide, only down the middle. Nadal won just 57% of points on his 1st serve, and 30% on his 2nd serve. And he was hitting a very high number of unforced errors off the ground.

Incidently, Nadal announced yesterday that he is playing next week’s China Open, before traveling to the Shanghai Masters, the Paris Masters and the ATP World Tour finals in London. Federer meanwhile is skipping China and Shanghai, and that allows Nadal to finish number one for the 2nd straight year.

[Slava]

^ Good post.

[Marmoset]

Sure, Nadal is as much or more of a contender for the calendar slam as anyone. My last response was more to the fact that the post made it sound like a very likely event to occur. One of the reasons it is unlikely to occur is that Nadal hasn't come close in New York. It doesn't mean he's not capable in the future; it just means that so far he hasn't been that close. A certain player from Switzerland was competitive in the late rounds at Roland Garros (Federer's hardest slam to win) many times before winning it. Nadal has only made the semis so far and hasn't been competitive in them. I won't be surprised if Nadal wins the U.S. Open one day, but I won't be surprised if he doesn't either.

I don't think either guy will get the calendar slam. Federer will do well to maintain 2 slams a year going forward as he reaches 30 (years old, not slams ), and I just don't see it from Nadal based on the fact two slams are on hard where a number of guys can beat him, and given his health issues. I think the next guy to win a calendar slam is probably someone playing junior, or younger, who we've never heard of.

[Slava]

How competitive was Nadal before he won Wimbeldon? People almost used to write him off on the quicker courts and they said he'd rather win on the hard court than grass but he achieved that faster than even he would have thought. When healthy he's all out hustle and that kind of game doesn't change much from one surface to another.

[8pLEBRON]

For sure j-far, when Nadal is on he seems equally as dominant on all surfaces. He's actually changed his forehand over the last year to be flatter and less spin for the hardcourts. His game continues to evolve, and lets not forget his favorite slam is Wimbledon (Uncle Toni said that Nadal told him when he was 3 years old that he wanted to win Wimbledon). I'd think he'll tinker with his game until its even better on grass than clay. Plus obviously Us Open will remain top priority until it's done.

Marm, Nadal lost to Murray last year in the Us Open semis. If he won that match he would have played his bunny in the final. This year Nadal lost to Del Potro in the Us Open semis. If he won that match he would have played his bunny in the final. Nadal has come extremely close to winning the Us Open. All he needs is to either arrive at the semi 100% injury free, or get an easier opponent due to early upset in the draw. Either way, he's close. As for Federer, he said he will probably retire in 2012. His legacy seems to be important to him, so I'd be surprised if he wants to hang around while Nadal keeps beating him in slams. Nadal leads 6-2 so far, and the gap will widen as Federer deteriorates.

[Doctor MJ]

For sure j-far, when Nadal is on he seems equally as dominant on all surfaces. He's actually changed his forehand over the last year to be flatter and less spin for the hardcourts. His game continues to evolve, and lets not forget his favorite slam is Wimbledon (Uncle Toni said that Nadal told him when he was 3 years old that he wanted to win Wimbledon). I'd think he'll tinker with his game until its even better on grass than clay. Plus obviously Us Open will remain top priority until it's done.

Marm, Nadal lost to Murray last year in the Us Open semis. If he won that match he would have played his bunny in the final. This year Nadal lost to Del Potro in the Us Open semis. If he won that match he would have played his bunny in the final. Nadal has come extremely close to winning the Us Open. All he needs is to either arrive at the semi 100% injury free, or get an easier opponent due to early upset in the draw. Either way, he's close. As for Federer, he said he will probably retire in 2012. His legacy seems to be important to him, so I'd be surprised if he wants to hang around while Nadal keeps beating him in slams. Nadal leads 6-2 so far, and the gap will widen as Federer deteriorates.

As mentioned I agree that Nadal's absolutely a major threat for the US Open. I do object though to referring to Federer as "his bunny". You seem to under the impression that Nadal struggles with the rest of the field and dominates Federer, but Nadal in general has more trouble with Federer than he does with Murray or pretty much anyone else. (Del Potro might be different, but we'll see) For crying out loud, he wins only 65% of the time against Federer, and doesn't win the majority on any surface except clay.

[8pLEBRON]

I called Federer bunny because they've met in 7 grand slam finals and Nadal has won 5 of them. The only 2 losses were when Nadal was fairly new to grass in 2006, and that 2007 Wimbledon Final was on a knife's edge and seemed to be influenced by Nadal's strained quad which got worse as the 5th set went on and which slowed him noticeably. The fact he was that close in 2007 to winning speaks volumes, considering nobody expected him to even make the Final the year before.

Nadal didn't even have to play great in the Australian Open Final, he looked exhausted after playing the longest singles match in Aus Open history in that semi, wasn't moving well in the Final and still won 6-2 in the fifth. Point is, Nadal struggles to find a way to lose to Federer, regardless of the surface edge or scheduling edge that Federer has (Federer had 2 days break before the Aus Open Final, compared to Nadal's one day).

Its like Federer facing Roddick in the Final in most of his GS victories, thats a bunny there too. Federer struggles to find a way to lose to Roddick. It is like Roddick doesn't believe in himself in the big points v Federer. And the same true for Federer's lack of belief in the big points v Nadal. I don't really consider the overall head2head (13-7 Nadal leads) to be relevant, compared to the slam head2head (6-2) or the slam final head2head (5-2). Murray wins 80% of his matches v Federer but didn't win the only one that mattered - 2008 US Open Final - for example.

Getting back to the issue of surface, its hard to say Federer leads their head2head on hardcourt when Nadal won their only hardcourt slam meeting, that counts for more than any other meetings.

[Gamer_4_life]

They both have the ability to become the best player this year.