What will the Grizzlies plan be going forward (poll)?

darkangle901 · Post #1 » by **darkangle901** » Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:33 am

I am convinced that the Grizzlies are good enough to go all the way this season. However, I am not so sure about what our team will look like after this season.

As far as I can tell, we have three options:

1.) Pay the luxury tax. Despite our recent surge in popularity, I find it doubtful that the new ownership will allow this, particularly with the new punitive measures that kick in next year. However, we will pay the luxury tax if we do not make one of the following moves.

2.) Trade one of our "big four". I doubt it would be Gasol: he's just too valuable. I also doubt it would be Conley: the team doesn't function particularly well without him, and his contract is the most reasonable of the four. That leaves Randolph and Gay. Gay would have more value: he could potentially net a blue-chip prospect or a high draft pick, and we get to keep our double-post offense, which is still our bread and butter at this point.
Randolph, however, gets paid just as much as Gay and is significantly older, so it may make morse sense to trade him. There will be fewer takers, and the return will likely be lower - we might have to settle for a package like Kris Humphries and a 1st round pick. This wouldn't be all bad, though, as Humphries is a capable rebounder who would get us under the tax next year, even if we retained TA (and then Humphries' contract expires the season after). This would allow us to try to open an extended championship window around a "big-three" of Conley, Gay, and Gasol because we'd have the financial flexibility to find the "right" role players. And if it becomes clear it won't work out, all three players will retain their trade value much longer than Randolph.

3.) Lose 2-3 role players and replace them with players on rookie scale contracts. Best I can tell, this means that Tony Allen, Wayne Ellington, and Hamed Hadaddi walk, and I think maybe Speights or Arthur would have to be traded as well. Our lineup might look something like:

PG Mike Conley / Jerryd Bayless
SG Tony Wroten / Josh Selby
SF Rudy Gay / Quincy Pondexter
PF Zach Randolph / Darrell Arthur
C Marc Gasol / Rookie or cheap big man

This option isn't quite as bad as it sounds. Wroten has defensive potential to fill the Tony Allen role, and Selby can really shoot the ball as seen in Summer league. Decent backup big men on the cheap are not terribly hard to find (the rockets seem to have found two in Aldrich and Greg Smith). I mean if the Spurs can keep plugging in nobodies like Roger Mason, George Hill, Danny Green, and Nando De Colo, then surely we can do it too?

[EDIT: I realize the SG position would likely be platooned by Pondexter and Bayless with Selby and/or Wroten getting limited minutes to start the season. I put this lineup up there to illustrate what might be the rotation by season's end if the two young guards are as good as their scouting reports suggest they can be).

Let me know what you think, or if there is some inaccuracy in representation of the Grizzlies' financial situation.

jefe · Post #2 » by **jefe** » Mon Dec 24, 2012 4:05 am

Trade one of the big four - specifically Rudy. The addition of Hollinger, as well as Levian's/Pera's fascination with advanced stats, will lead to it IMO.

vanjulio · Post #3 » by **vanjulio** » Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:16 pm

WIth the new ownership in place I think they by nature will just have to make their own adjustments which means some roster tweaking involving the starting lineup. You just can't improve by standing pat.

Post #4 » by **SD2042** » Mon Dec 31, 2012 11:14 pm

Trading one of the big four is inevitable and neccessary. Especially given Memphis small market status.

dark-child · Post #5 » by **dark-child** » Tue Jan 1, 2013 12:21 am

Yeah trading one of the core is inevitable and the move might not be popular. So conventional wisdom may say trade Rudy as he is what will bring the greatest return, but I would argue trading Zbo now while his stock is high for a final solution at the SG position and cap relief. There is a pretty good article on 3sob.com regarding trading Rudy that is worth a good read.

The reason I say keep Rudy has to do with age and his ability to get his own shot which is a trait we don't have enough of on this team. The market for Zbo would be much smaller but Darrell and Speights have proven admiriable substitutions for him in the past. Rudy is the fourth best SF in the league while Randolph is just top ten PF and older. We have a young core so keeping Rudy even at his current costs may be best for the franchise going forward. Zbo's contract also includes deferred money which may also be enticing to a potential trade partner.

Marvin Martian · Post #6 » by **Marvin Martian** » Tue Jan 1, 2013 11:11 pm

Here is the thing: Wroten and Selby sucks and are not good options at the 2. Q pon is better at the 3. So a trade has to happen

Post #7 » by **SD2042** » Wed Jan 2, 2013 6:31 pm

Wroten isn't an option at SG right now since he's a rookie in development. Too much to expect from him at this early stage of his career. Selby isn't the ideal guard that Hollins defines in a PG. So it not surprising that he isn't cracking the rotation anytime soon.

mid-post · Post #8 » by **mid-post** » Thu Jan 3, 2013 12:52 am

It's going to be Rudy or ZBo who goes. Probably Rudy unless he has a dramatic turnaround the second half of the season (and explodes in the postseason).

darkangle901 · Post #9 » by **darkangle901** » Fri Jan 4, 2013 3:51 pm

Yeah i think the odd man out is Z-bo. I love his game, but I just feel like we can have 7+ years of playoff runs with Conley, Gay, and Gasol, and I just don't know how much longer Z-bo will be playing at his current level.

mid-post · Post #10 » by **mid-post** » Fri Jan 4, 2013 4:36 pm

darkangle901 wrote:Yeah i think the odd man out is Z-bo. I love his game, but I just feel like we can have 7+ years of playoff runs with Conley, Gay, and Gasol, and I just don't know how much longer Z-bo will be playing at his current level.

Zach did have one epically bad play last game where he tried doing some "fancy" dribbles from 18 feet out and then fired up a ridiculous brick. I'm having trouble remembering the last time he had a play that was just so dumb and pointless. Made me start wondering about what's going on in these guys' minds. Rudy's been like that seemingly the whole season and can't make his most basic go-to shots anymore.

Who knows, maybe it's just boredom from the routine of the regular season, but they just don't look sharp out there. I know they still have a pretty good record and all, but if you know this team, you know something is a little bit "off."

They need to get things figured out now. Because otherwise we'll be looking at another first or second round exit, and then someone's ass is def getting shipped out, which I'll be sad to see.

vanjulio · Post #11 » by **vanjulio** » Fri Jan 4, 2013 6:00 pm

seeing them in person on Wednesday night, I definitely think a lot of them are just going through the motions.

Arthur is giving 100% because he is finally back. Conley was giving it all. Haddadi always gives his best. Tony was going 120% back in Boston showing off. Can't say the same for the rest of the guys for all 48 minutes.

It's human nature to relax after you jump out to such a great first month and I think all teh players mail it in during the holidays. But now it's time to get back to work fellas.

SparksFly87 · Post #12 » by **SparksFly87** » Sat Jan 5, 2013 2:12 am

Philly would be a near perfect trading partner. We can offer you Nick Young (Expiring), Dorell Wright (Expiring) and Jason Richardson a 12 year vet who can hit the big shots.

Grizzlies in exchange for Rudy Gay.

Get cap flexibility , wing size and depth. All three wings are shooting threats who play defense and team players who can replace Rudy Gays production.

darkangle901 · Post #13 » by **darkangle901** » Wed Jan 9, 2013 8:31 pm

SparksFly87 wrote:Philly would be a near perfect trading partner. We can offer you Nick Young (Expiring), Dorell Wright (Expiring) and Jason Richardson a 12 year vet who can hit the big shots.

Grizzlies in exchange for Rudy Gay.

Get cap flexibility , wing size and depth. All three wings are shooting threats who play defense and team players who can replace Rudy Gays production.

Not without draft picks or quality prospects.

If all we were looking for is expiring contracts and scrubs then we could just as well amnesty Rudy and save ourselves the trouble.