What will the Grizzlies plan be going forward (poll)?
Posted: Thu Dec 20, 2012 8:33 am
I am convinced that the Grizzlies are good enough to go all the way this season. However, I am not so sure about what our team will look like after this season.
As far as I can tell, we have three options:
1.) Pay the luxury tax. Despite our recent surge in popularity, I find it doubtful that the new ownership will allow this, particularly with the new punitive measures that kick in next year. However, we will pay the luxury tax if we do not make one of the following moves.
2.) Trade one of our "big four". I doubt it would be Gasol: he's just too valuable. I also doubt it would be Conley: the team doesn't function particularly well without him, and his contract is the most reasonable of the four. That leaves Randolph and Gay. Gay would have more value: he could potentially net a blue-chip prospect or a high draft pick, and we get to keep our double-post offense, which is still our bread and butter at this point.
Randolph, however, gets paid just as much as Gay and is significantly older, so it may make morse sense to trade him. There will be fewer takers, and the return will likely be lower - we might have to settle for a package like Kris Humphries and a 1st round pick. This wouldn't be all bad, though, as Humphries is a capable rebounder who would get us under the tax next year, even if we retained TA (and then Humphries' contract expires the season after). This would allow us to try to open an extended championship window around a "big-three" of Conley, Gay, and Gasol because we'd have the financial flexibility to find the "right" role players. And if it becomes clear it won't work out, all three players will retain their trade value much longer than Randolph.
3.) Lose 2-3 role players and replace them with players on rookie scale contracts. Best I can tell, this means that Tony Allen, Wayne Ellington, and Hamed Hadaddi walk, and I think maybe Speights or Arthur would have to be traded as well. Our lineup might look something like:
PG Mike Conley / Jerryd Bayless
SG Tony Wroten / Josh Selby
SF Rudy Gay / Quincy Pondexter
PF Zach Randolph / Darrell Arthur
C Marc Gasol / Rookie or cheap big man
This option isn't quite as bad as it sounds. Wroten has defensive potential to fill the Tony Allen role, and Selby can really shoot the ball as seen in Summer league. Decent backup big men on the cheap are not terribly hard to find (the rockets seem to have found two in Aldrich and Greg Smith). I mean if the Spurs can keep plugging in nobodies like Roger Mason, George Hill, Danny Green, and Nando De Colo, then surely we can do it too?
[EDIT: I realize the SG position would likely be platooned by Pondexter and Bayless with Selby and/or Wroten getting limited minutes to start the season. I put this lineup up there to illustrate what might be the rotation by season's end if the two young guards are as good as their scouting reports suggest they can be).
Let me know what you think, or if there is some inaccuracy in representation of the Grizzlies' financial situation.
As far as I can tell, we have three options:
1.) Pay the luxury tax. Despite our recent surge in popularity, I find it doubtful that the new ownership will allow this, particularly with the new punitive measures that kick in next year. However, we will pay the luxury tax if we do not make one of the following moves.
2.) Trade one of our "big four". I doubt it would be Gasol: he's just too valuable. I also doubt it would be Conley: the team doesn't function particularly well without him, and his contract is the most reasonable of the four. That leaves Randolph and Gay. Gay would have more value: he could potentially net a blue-chip prospect or a high draft pick, and we get to keep our double-post offense, which is still our bread and butter at this point.
Randolph, however, gets paid just as much as Gay and is significantly older, so it may make morse sense to trade him. There will be fewer takers, and the return will likely be lower - we might have to settle for a package like Kris Humphries and a 1st round pick. This wouldn't be all bad, though, as Humphries is a capable rebounder who would get us under the tax next year, even if we retained TA (and then Humphries' contract expires the season after). This would allow us to try to open an extended championship window around a "big-three" of Conley, Gay, and Gasol because we'd have the financial flexibility to find the "right" role players. And if it becomes clear it won't work out, all three players will retain their trade value much longer than Randolph.
3.) Lose 2-3 role players and replace them with players on rookie scale contracts. Best I can tell, this means that Tony Allen, Wayne Ellington, and Hamed Hadaddi walk, and I think maybe Speights or Arthur would have to be traded as well. Our lineup might look something like:
PG Mike Conley / Jerryd Bayless
SG Tony Wroten / Josh Selby
SF Rudy Gay / Quincy Pondexter
PF Zach Randolph / Darrell Arthur
C Marc Gasol / Rookie or cheap big man
This option isn't quite as bad as it sounds. Wroten has defensive potential to fill the Tony Allen role, and Selby can really shoot the ball as seen in Summer league. Decent backup big men on the cheap are not terribly hard to find (the rockets seem to have found two in Aldrich and Greg Smith). I mean if the Spurs can keep plugging in nobodies like Roger Mason, George Hill, Danny Green, and Nando De Colo, then surely we can do it too?
[EDIT: I realize the SG position would likely be platooned by Pondexter and Bayless with Selby and/or Wroten getting limited minutes to start the season. I put this lineup up there to illustrate what might be the rotation by season's end if the two young guards are as good as their scouting reports suggest they can be).
Let me know what you think, or if there is some inaccuracy in representation of the Grizzlies' financial situation.