RealGM

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba--rudy- ... 16242.html

Thoughts?

Edit: By the way, jefe was spot on in the other thread!

Well, I sort of disagree with the idea that Rudy is Memphis' star and therefore it's a bad move; it's a total team effort for Lionel's guys and Rudy was the easiest cog to justify moving.

But I don't disagree that the trade looks like a panicked attempt to get under the cap and gain as much salary relief while still ostensibly being a viable playoff darkhorse. I say ostensibly because I don't see how the parts we received in return for Rudy make us a better team. Not unless Tayshaun Prince has some miraculous renaissance. And sure, maybe we're better from a cap-room perspective, but I have some serious reservations about how (or even if) that cap room will ever be used.

You and I seem to be on the same page on this jman: they broke up the team before seeing what this core could do with everyone healthy and playing (Darrell is back too) so that they could dump salary and tinker with the squad. And they basically sold this asset at its lowest possible value. They just as easily could have dumped his salary at the end of the season if the postseason ended in failure, which is why this move just looks: a. short-sighted b. inept or c. both. If you're addressing need with a trade like this, I totally get that, but we're not addressing any need here. I'll feel even more strongly about this if we don't pick up some kind of perimeter threat(s) by the deadline (a Tayshaun rebirth notwithstanding).

Honestly, for the fans who have been following this team for the past 5-10 years, it sort of seems like a slap in the face; they break up the core we've had the most success with ever in the middle of our best season ever and replace one of the key pieces (in an epic shooting slump) with stop-gaps and salary relief instead of upgrades. And they do all this (apparently) against the wishes of the coach who completely turned around the culture and helped get us here? GTFO.

This reminds me of the show wife swap where some bossy ho comes in and finally gets a chance to play house with someone else's kids. This ho has moved in step-mom style. She immediately goes around telling them what to do because she thinks her way is much better. Occasionally that ends up working, but more often than not it ends up being a big failure and everyone hates the **** for it. (Hey Robert Pera, you're not my mom! )

Hopefully this new ownership is actually serious about winning a title, and [i]hopefully[i] they've made the right moves to get us there, but this does not seem like an immediate solution to turning us into a championship team. It looks exactly like a lateral move, and a way to save money.

Lost in all this is the fact that this ownership group has put zero premium on loyalty. What's the culture here? Well, Lionel's relatively well respected, but will he stick around after this if we don't have a miracle run? Ask yourself what kinds of players we're going to be able to entice to Memphis with our cap room in the future (assuming it's even used). I can damn well guarantee any future star or borderline star will be just as overpaid as Rudy if they do decide to come here. That's the premium you pay as a small market team.

I'm not sure that the objective of the article was to place Rudy Gay in the conversation amongst the NBA's best. It was more to discuss the breakup of "superteams" comprised of three quality talents. I'm not sure if most of you remember, but I was the first one calling for Rudy Gay to be traded after last year's playoff series. But, I never imagined that we would get nothing of value in return.

Forget the wishes of the coach in this case. Now, the GM is on the way out and they attributed the trade to him when they were signing off on his termination package.

More concerning is that management is relying on the notion that the Grizzlies can replicate their 2011 production with Rudy Gay out and that Zach Randolph today is the same Zach Randolph. This remains to be seen and it is more likely that Randolph's play in that series was more of an aberration in the grand scheme of things.

Btw, you are spot on about the cap room and how we are going to lure a potential star. It's not likely to happen, and if we do, we will probably overpay him. The only recipe then is to look to the draft for talent. But alas, we traded our first round pick and much of our core is built for the here and now.

I absolutely agree with you on the value thing. If this was Prince from even a couple years ago and we actually had a need for Davis at this point (are we dumping Darrell and ZBo after this?) then I get how you could consider it value. Doing it mid-season? GTFO.

The fact that the article indicated Hollinger is the one making GM decisions makes me pretty uncomfortable.

I'm sure there's some truth to the article. There's also the fact that Woj has a big axe to grind with Hollinger and the new ownership group. Levien said today on Vernon's show that Wallace was heavily involved in the trade process for both moves. So, whatever. I'm pretty much resigned that Wallace (and likely Hollins) are gone at the end of the season.

ofcourse Chris Wallece nothing to do with deal.

No doubt it was by New Owner and Hollinger ideas.

http://m.usatoday.com/article/news/1875047

That article really makes those guys look like rank amateurs, especially Levien. And that Cavs "trade" is making me sick every time I see it (now that we've dumped Gay as well).

The buzz-word among the Memphis front office is sustainability

In this case sustainability is a euphemism for austerity.

GrizzledGrizzFan wrote:I'm sure there's some truth to the article. There's also the fact that Woj has a big axe to grind with Hollinger and the new ownership group. Levien said today on Vernon's show that Wallace was heavily involved in the trade process for both moves.

Either way, seems like Levien is trying to cover his ass big time with the way he's trying to drag Wallace into this. It's pretty damn obvious this isn't Wallace's deal here.

I'm pretty much resigned that Wallace (and likely Hollins) are gone at the end of the season.

Unless we have a dream run, that is what it looks like. Here comes the rebuild.

I don't like the idea that Hollinger is secretly calling the shots. Advanced metrics may be useful in baseball, but basketball is a far more complex game. If someone is going to make "moneyball" work in the NBA, then it will take statistical analysis that is far more complex than anything I've seen Hollinger come up with (the PER is basically just counting up a players statline).

A good example of something I think might be advanced enough to work is something like this:

http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp ... erence.pdf

Robert Ayer analyzed the success of many teams in NBA history, and attempted to find which combinations of "big-2's" and "big'-3's" (the teams top 2 or top 3 players) performed best together.

While several combinations had significant impacts on team performance, Ayer found that by far the best combination was the "7-8-12" combo.

7: High scoring, high assist, high steals, high turnover PG's who don't shoot a lot of 3's.
8: Versatile wings who can shoot the 3, score the ball, and have high assists for a wing player
12: High scoring, high rebounding, high shot-blocking C's.

If you look at that combo, it shouldn't really be a surprise. The obvious example of this combination is the San Antonio Spurs with Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan. That helps explain why they've had so much success over the past ten years despite only paying out one max contract (Duncan).

It wouldn't be fair to say that the Grizzlies three young guns (Conley, Gay, Gasol) exactly fit that mold, but they were close. But with Gay out and Randolph here to stay, we have a combination that is unproven to say the least. Ayer would classify it as a 5-7-12: this combination is not listed in the paper, which means that it has no significant statistical impact on team success.

Ayer's metrics, in essence, say that a Conley-Gay-Gasol core could have been more than the sum of its parts, whereas a Conley-Randolph-Gasol core will be exactly what you'd expect.

I had the same thought. The Cavs trade was supposed to be a lead-up to something much greater. Tayshaun Prince + Ed Davis are just nothing to get amped about. I see how they fit and everything but I feel a little cheated days after the trades now. I didn't even really know who ed davis was. Prince is long past his prime and isn't going to be the difference maker in the playoffs for a deep run. Forget that. I was already making plans about going to the playoffs late in May actually to tell youthe truth and now I am making no plans.

Write this down on paper and stare at it:

OUT
Speights
Haddadi
Selby
Ellington
Rudy **** Gay

IN
Jon Leuer
Tayshaun Prince
Christapher Johnson
Ed Davis
Austin Daye

1800-SUICIDE

Darkangle,

Excellent, very interesting post. The one positive that has come out of all this is that this board has semi been revived. But, I wish we all were speaking under different circumstances.

As for advanced stats, I was under the impression that we had our own team of solid advanced statisticians already. The following website calculates more advanced +/- stats (APM) and is run by a member of the Grizzlies organization:
http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

Why didn't this guy get the promotion over Hollinger?


vanjulio,

It certainly was underwhelming and it's almost like we are in a state of mourning currently. I can't help but feel that Davis was traded at a peak in value (when he was getting more minutes on a hot streak for a team with no playoff hopes). I watched him fairly extensively in college and early in the pros (and summer league) and was never blown away by his skillset. If he added a jumper, he can be a reliable option, but nothing I would trade away Zach for.

Very interesting (IMO) take by Tom Ziller this morning:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/2/1/39 ... in/3619169

jman3134 wrote:
As for advanced stats, I was under the impression that we had our own team of solid advanced statisticians already. The following website calculates more advanced +/- stats (APM) and is run by a member of the Grizzlies organization:
http://basketballvalue.com/index.php

Why didn't this guy get the promotion over Hollinger?
r.

the philadelphia 76ers hired him. from what I understand he still lives in Cambridge, MA

GrizzledGrizzFan wrote:Very interesting (IMO) take by Tom Ziller this morning:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/2/1/39 ... in/3619169

I get what he's saying. We had zero financial flexibility and a team that was a longshot to win a title. My only argument is that they either should have gotten better return (there are like 3 weeks until the trade deadline still!), or it should have been Randolph who got traded, not Gay.

The two forwards get paid the same, and not only is Randolph older, but he is very redundant in that there's nothing he does that isn't also done well by players who were already on the team. Marc Gasol is a better post scorer (wouldn't have said that two years ago, but i feel comfortable saying it now). Gasol is also a better passer. Gay is just as effective on the block as Randolph. Gay, Gasol, and Arthur are better defenders.

You might be thinking that offensive rebounding was the obvious exception, but in fact, Mareese Speights had a higher offensive rebounding percentage.

I'm not hating on Randolph. But PF is one of the deepest positions in the NBA, and Randolph is getting up in age, and is no longer an elite player.

The most depressing part is this may necessitate a semi-rebuilding in a year and a half. It's tough to get by when Jerryd Bayless is your best wing scorer.

I also think that someone needs to invent a "shot-defense-chart": a defensive counterpart to the traditional shot-chart.

It would be good to see the proximity of a defensive player to his man on every shot made and missed.

Computer algorithms are sophisticated enough to analyze graphical elements like a shot-chart or shot-d-chart. Both could tell us an awful lot about how much of the court an offensive player is a threat from, how often they get open shots in a particular area, how well a player defends shots, how often the player is out of position on defense, and how all of these things are affected by who the player is on the floor with or who he is matched up against.

I think graphical analysis could be the key to really judging basketball players systematically. This is basically what we do when we judge basketball players by just watching them. But we are not computers; our judgement is biased and affected by which plays stick out most in our memory.

Just a thought.

Very interesting (IMO) take by Tom Ziller this morning:

http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2013/2/1/39 ... in/3619169

Yeah, I still don't see it. And I think Tom is missing the point that everyone recognizes that Rudy Gay is overpaid. However, we have consistently overpaid for players to keep them put and that's the way it is. We just got under the cap following the Speights trade. And, I don't understand why he feels that that trade was somehow irrelevant. We lost our best three point shooter and one of our better bench weapons (stretch shooters). He obviously has no idea about how valuable Ellington's shooting has been at times. And we lost a first round pick in the process.

And the Grizzlies? The team that plays in Memphis, one of the smallest, least lucrative markets in the league and has a new owner that isn't even remotely close to the NBA's tog dog owners in terms of wealth? Yes, money will be the impetus in properly managing the salary cap. Just as it was for the team's last owner, Michael Heisley, who vowed never to hit the luxury tax. And just as it is for basically every other small market, including the successful Spurs and Thunder.

Okay, so we were under the cap with our first trade. This very fact negates his entire point.

I mean no offense to Gay as a person or a player; I'm talking about him as an asset. And at the price he costs (through no fault of his own), he was not a good asset. He makes $16 million this year. Almost $18 million next season. More than $19 million in 2014-15. For a player shooting an effective field goal percentage of .463 since coming back from shoulder surgery a year and a half ago. Whose only elite NBA skill is shot creation for himself which, let's be honest, is hardly rare.

We get it. He is overpaid. Most of our fans recognized this after last year's playoff debauchery. But, what is this guy talking about? Shot creation is "hardly rare"? If that were the case, then you'd expect at least one other Grizzly to be able to do it.

First, it should be noted that not everyone values the guy for his shooting percentages in a mismatched Memphis Grizzlies offensive system that does not cater to his strengths. He had more trade value than his TS%. Further, the main point worth noting is that he has been in a shooting slump for most of this season. So, you wait until the end of the season to trade him. (hopefully, by then he is out of his slump, percentages normalize, and you can get more value) That is why it was a "panicked trade". At least if we had waited until the end of the season, we might have finally been able to see this team in the playoffs at full strength.

When you ignore the whole "Gay was widely overpaid" thing, you're setting up a false reality from which to launch your theories about the NBA's shifting ground. That's blatantly obvious when you go back and look at Woj's reaction to the James Harden trade. In that deal, the Thunder -- another small-market, low-capital franchise -- traded a legitimate All-Star for a lesser replacement and young, cheap assets ... to save money. Perhaps because it was angelic wonder of the basketball world Sam Presti who pulled the trigger, the reaction was not apoplectic anywhere really. (All criticism has now died down completely as the Thunder excel in spite of Harden's fantastic season in Houston.) On Wednesday, the Grizzlies traded a slight above average player paid like a legit All-Star for a lesser replacement (Tayshaun Prince) and a young, cheap asset (Ed Davis) to save money. Quelle horreur.

The Thunder got Kevin Martin and a young Jeremy Lamb (who they aren't playing, but is highly capable of putting up big numbers). That is far more value than a significant downgrade at the small forward and another backup big man to eat into the playing time of our already stellar frontcourt. Couple that with the loss of our 1st round pick in the other trade, and it becomes clear that it was an obvious salary dump in the middle of our best season ever.

Pera officially took over on October 25, 2012. He's been in control for three months and one week. And we're already declaring that he doesn't want to win ... because he traded Rudy Gay and Marreese Speights? Man, the next owner of the Sacramento Kings had better not go ahead with trading Tyreke Evans or Jason Thompson. One can only imagine the wrath that would bring.

This comment is patently absurd. To parallel the Memphis Grizzlies (who at one point were the top team in the NBA this year) to the Sacramento Kings is absurd. He lost all credibility with that remark.


Grizzled,

He may be right about Woj's axe to grind, but I really think he misses the mark on this trade. That's just my opinion though, and forgive me if I am not coming off too strong. This whole thing has been very upsetting for me. (the Grizzlies really are the only professional team that I have invested any thought into/time to follow)


Van,

I guess I am years behind the curve on that one. Thanks for the info.

vanjulio wrote:Write this down on paper and stare at it:

OUT
Speights
Haddadi
Selby
Ellington
Rudy **** Gay

IN
Jon Leuer
Tayshaun Prince
Christapher Johnson
Ed Davis
Austin Daye

1800-SUICIDE

Who knows, maybe it works out somehow, but this really does look like a salary dump and possibly the beginning of a rebuild, but hopefully I'm wrong.

The cynic in me says: That's why the new ownership has kept Wallace around! To make him the fall guy for the dismantling of the team. No doubt, Hollins will be the scapegoat when the dismantled team fails to reach (misplaced) expectations in the playoffs.

It also says: the Grizz jumped the gun on this trade simply because they didn't want to sign an unwanted player to a vet minimum contract for the remainder of the year. Recall that the Cavs salary dump last week left us two players short of the minimum - we signed Johnson to a 10 day contract and we were granted a 2 week period by the NBA to acquire another player. Rather than sign a guy for the vet minimum for the remainder of the year, we pulled the trigger on this trade to fill out the bench. If we fail to offer Johnson a contract for the remainder of the season AND fail to cash in one of our multiple trade exceptions before the deadline, this theory is validated in my book, which means the new ownership is strictly about cutting costs and profiting.

In sum - we rushed the Rudy Gay trade because we didn't want to spend ~100K on a vet minimum contract OR, alternatively, we made the same mistake that we did with Pau - we thought the "best offer" was on the table 3 weeks before the trade deadline. We're cheap or incompetent, take your pick.

jefe wrote:In sum - we rushed the Rudy Gay trade because we didn't want to spend ~100K on a vet minimum contract OR, alternatively, we made the same mistake that we did with Pau - we thought the "best offer" was on the table 3 weeks before the trade deadline. We're cheap or incompetent, take your pick.

Well I know a lot of people thought the Pau trade was a mistake but turned out pretty well for us. Maybe if they are being cheap here and it looks like this was maybe a mistake it ends up being a good thing. Who knows.

mid-post wrote:

jefe wrote:In sum - we rushed the Rudy Gay trade because we didn't want to spend ~100K on a vet minimum contract OR, alternatively, we made the same mistake that we did with Pau - we thought the "best offer" was on the table 3 weeks before the trade deadline. We're cheap or incompetent, take your pick.

Well I know a lot of people thought the Pau trade was a mistake but turned out pretty well for us. Maybe if they are being cheap here and it looks like this was maybe a mistake it ends up being a good thing. Who knows.

I agree that the Pau trade worked out in the long run, but the best offer is never on the table three weeks before the deadline. The timing of it seemed suspect until you realize we had to add another player within two weeks following the Cleveland salary dump trade. If they honestly rushed the Rudy Gay trade to avoid adding a vet minimum contract for the remainder of the year - I'm not even sure what to say.